SOVIET UNION 1941 MOBILE VARIANT AAR

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 16. This is the last turn of clear weather, with the mud phase starting next turn. So, while a bit more withering might have been better as far as the Moscow defenders were concerned, their reduction couldn’t wait any longer. Note that Leningrad has fallen and the Moscow defenders have been destroyed. The cost of reducing the Moscow defenders was a bit higher than ideal, but necessary.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 16. Stalingrad has fallen! (Leningrad and Stalingrad fall on the same turn!). The defense of Astrakhan, however, now seems too strong for any chance of success.

[Curtis Lemay]

This is the first turn of the mud phase. Both sides are under 67% shock penalties, putting most formations into reorganization. Little progress will be made during this phase. The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 17. It’s little different from the situation at the end of turn 16.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the supply situation on the northern front at the end of turn 17. Note that the shock reduces the Force Supply Levels of both sides, and the Axis Supply Radius has dropped from 5 hexes to only 3 hexes. This has put a lot of locations out of “Supplied” status. Supply locations with the blue font are “Overextended”.

For the Germans, units generally need to have greater than about 20 Unit Supply to even remain in such locations. Red-lined units need to fall back to Supplied locations. And only units with close to full Unit Supply can risk offensive operations within them. The units coming from Leningrad and the Moscow pocket are in that condition. Most of the units that had been part of the pincers are not, however.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 17. Note that a number of red-lined units are in Stalingrad. They will need to be replaced with units with better Unit Supply ASAP.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the supply situation in the south on turn 17. The front lines are far into overextended territory. Since the Axis don’t really have a fresh reserve in this area (unlike on the northern front), this will bring offensive operations on this front to an end. Red-lined units will need to be replaced or the Soviets may even take the offensive.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 21 (I’m skipping the rest of the mud phase since little happens in it). Note that the mud phase is over, both in terms of the shock penalties (except for the Germans, who now have a 5% penalty left) and in terms of the new frozen hexes. Let’s call this the frost phase. It will last four turns, after which will begin what we’ll call the blizzard phase.

The Germans can finally get back to offensive operations here and have captured Yaroslavl. Some of the red-lined units have been extracted from the overextended areas. The supply level has recovered with the drop in shock penalty as well.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 21. Offensive operations are over and the Axis are just trying to extract any red-lined units from the overextended areas.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 22. Gorki has been placed out of supply. That will make it easier to take. The remainder of the defense around Yaroslavl has also been placed out of supply.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 22. Note that most red-lined units have been moved back to supplied locations and replaced with units in better Unit Supply.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 23. Gorki has been captured.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 24. The last remaining forces around Yaroslavl have been eliminated. A new pocket has formed near Saransk. The front lines have pressed on towards Kazan and Kirov.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 25. The blizzard phase has begun and the Axis now suffer a 25% shock penalty plus a 3% pestilence penalty. The Axis continue to press towards Kirov and Kazan while degrading the pocketed units near Saransk.

Meanwhile, the Soviets must use their shock armies to defend Kazan and other locations, lessening any opportunity for any sort of counteroffensive.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the northern front at the end of turn 29. Kirov was captured and the pocket near Saransk was eliminated. Kazan was too well defended to attack.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot shows the situation on the southern front at the end of turn 29. There has been no further action here other than moving red-lined units back to supplied locations.

[Curtis Lemay]

The game ends automatically at the end of turn 29 and victory is determined. The attached screenshot shows the victory message. The result was an Overwhelming Axis victory. The final total was 660 in the Axis favor (the Overwhelming boundary is at 600). This is in contrast to the Draw outcome obtained in the original test.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached file is the movie of the game using the Axis player-turn saves. So most of the Soviet force is usually invisible due to fog-of-war.

[Curtis Lemay]

Similarly, the attached file is the movie of the game using the Soviet player-turn saves. So most of the Axis force is usually invisible due to fog-of-war.

[Curtis Lemay]

Now let’s do some statistical analysis. The attached screenshot charts the loss penalties over the course of the game. The red line is for the Soviets, and the blue line is for the Axis. Remember that replacements reduce the loss penalty, explaining how both lines often decrease, especially the Soviets, due to their huge replacement edge. The biggest losses occurred at the start, but continued till the mud phase – unlike the original test, where there were slack phases as the Axis was mostly moving. Then they picked up again for the frost phase. And they finally slacked off for the blizzard phase (not so much the Axis, due to the pestilence). The Soviet penalty was much larger in this test than in the original (over 350 vs. less than 200), while the Axis penalty was about the same.

[Curtis Lemay]

The attached screenshot charts squad losses (everything in the equipment list up to machine guns). The gridlines are 50,000 squads. The Axis initial-shock, proficiency, and organizational edges account for their better results here, as in the original. But these results are even better because the Germans were hitting the Soviet lines before they could be fully formed or even made continuous.