Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[Crackaces]

I don't understand how 6900 VPs, respawned at 1/3 of TOE and killed again, becomes 15-20K VPs. What are they teaching you in those Swedish math classes? Kidding! The base VPs... I exported the bases from Tracker into a CSV and had Excel add it up for me. If every Chinese base is built to maximum, it's 15822 VPs for Japan. There are lots of potential level 9 AFs that have *10 multipliers. 49 bases in total have *10 or higher for Japan, and all together they are worth 14810. 31 of those are potential level 9 AFs, and 3 of those 31 have ports as well. I would say that this is a very large, almost un-counterable VP bank for Japan...except that in order to build all of those up, Japan needs to commit a lot of engineers for years. That would leave forts weaker elsewhere.

I do not believe these calculations are complete. I might ask the question -- how much supply has to be expended
to gain these VP's? Building up ports and airfields is not free and gets more expensive in terms of supply as
the AF progresses with AF 9's being very expensive in terms of supply.

Then there is the need to push supplies through the Chinese rail/road/trail network which requires additional supply.

One thing the late game AAR's I have observed and that is in this game supply becomes the ultimate throttle and eventually
the bane of the IJ.

I might propose that although there is some make up of supply factories for the IJ in the DBB .. that alternative makes the problem worse.

The other problem is that the allies cannot assume a "Midway" in 1942 and actually it is not going to happen in this game.
So the strategy might be let the IJ seek autovictory .. use up fuel and supply and then like spending ones 401K at age 45
when 65 comes there is nothing left in the bank and the IJ resigns ..

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I got 6912 Chinese LCU losses. Thats everything in China except some of the small BDEs in the far north. No respawns, no replacements.

Kind of interesting since it shows I lost almost the entire Chinese army 2 times in my second game...Not that strange though when you consider it. Respawns come back at 30/30 having only rifle squads. That makes them extremely fragile so I figure once you start using "respawns" on the front line losses will rise tremendously.

So that would mean my estimate of 15-20k VPs is actually pretty spot on. Going by Spiderys Base VPs (9500) + our Chinese LCU losses = almost 17k VPs. And that is if NO replacements or respawns are lost. And I think its safe to assume that at least some respawns will be used. Going by my second game I lost around 10k worth of Chinese LCU losses. If you add that its around 20k VPs for China...A huge number. And relatively easy to grab for a competent Japanese player. Most definitively a huge factor in any games being played for VPs.

I don't understand how 6900 VPs, respawned at 1/3 of TOE and killed again, becomes 15-20K VPs. What are they teaching you in those Swedish math classes? [:'(] Kidding!

The base VPs... I exported the bases from Tracker into a CSV and had Excel add it up for me. If every Chinese base is built to maximum, it's 15822 VPs for Japan. [X(] There are lots of potential level 9 AFs that have *10 multipliers. 49 bases in total have *10 or higher for Japan, and all together they are worth 14810. 31 of those are potential level 9 AFs, and 3 of those 31 have ports as well.

I would say that this is a very large, almost un-counterable VP bank for Japan...except that in order to build all of those up, Japan needs to commit a lot of engineers for years. That would leave forts weaker elsewhere.

Doesn't base building take a lot of supply as well? Japan may get the VPs but weakens the home islands if it has to ship most of the supply to China.
I wonder if Japan can generate enough supply to build the aircraft and ships it wants plus feed IJ China's base-building program?

[Crackaces]

Doesn't base building take a lot of supply as well? Japan may get the VPs but weakens the home islands if it has to ship most of the supply to China. I wonder if Japan can generate enough supply to build the aircraft and ships it wants plus feed IJ China's base-building program?

We posted the same conclusions simultaneously [8D]

No supply in Oct 1944 and the IJ resigns ...[;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I got 6912 Chinese LCU losses. Thats everything in China except some of the small BDEs in the far north. No respawns, no replacements.

Kind of interesting since it shows I lost almost the entire Chinese army 2 times in my second game...Not that strange though when you consider it. Respawns come back at 30/30 having only rifle squads. That makes them extremely fragile so I figure once you start using "respawns" on the front line losses will rise tremendously.

So that would mean my estimate of 15-20k VPs is actually pretty spot on. Going by Spiderys Base VPs (9500) + our Chinese LCU losses = almost 17k VPs. And that is if NO replacements or respawns are lost. And I think its safe to assume that at least some respawns will be used. Going by my second game I lost around 10k worth of Chinese LCU losses. If you add that its around 20k VPs for China...A huge number. And relatively easy to grab for a competent Japanese player. Most definitively a huge factor in any games being played for VPs.

I don't understand how 6900 VPs, respawned at 1/3 of TOE and killed again, becomes 15-20K VPs. What are they teaching you in those Swedish math classes? [:'(] Kidding!

The base VPs... I exported the bases from Tracker into a CSV and had Excel add it up for me. If every Chinese base is built to maximum, it's 15822 VPs for Japan. [X(] There are lots of potential level 9 AFs that have *10 multipliers. 49 bases in total have *10 or higher for Japan, and all together they are worth 14810. 31 of those are potential level 9 AFs, and 3 of those 31 have ports as well.

I would say that this is a very large, almost un-counterable VP bank for Japan...except that in order to build all of those up, Japan needs to commit a lot of engineers for years. That would leave forts weaker elsewhere.

Don´t be mean! [:D]

Most Chinese units actually start the game below 30% TOE or there around! So another 3000 LCU losses are not very unlikely at all. Especially considering how extremely fragile those respawns will be. 30/30 and nothing but rifle squads...ouch!

16k base VPs. Jeezus! Are you sure? [X(]

But as you say. Investing that heavily in China and you might end up having B24s bombing the HI in mid 44...

Its kind of fascinating though. China has always been considered more or less a side show. But when you look at it its loads and loads of VPs. All within easy reach of the HI. And looking at my game with Tom not much is needed but China and that crucial denial of Noumea for the allies.

I wonder if at least Noumea should be looked at. Having an allied x50 multiplier is HUGE. I wonder if it would be better to spread those x50s out to multiple locations instead. Feels kind of odd that Noumea alone is worth more then Gilberts and Marshalls combined. It encourage force projection in a quite unrealistic way.

Then there is the question of China and the balance there...I´ve would have loved to look at Toms setup. I´ve asked him twice if he would share his PW but no response so I guess I won´t be able to check it out. [:(]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I got 6912 Chinese LCU losses. Thats everything in China except some of the small BDEs in the far north. No respawns, no replacements.

Kind of interesting since it shows I lost almost the entire Chinese army 2 times in my second game...Not that strange though when you consider it. Respawns come back at 30/30 having only rifle squads. That makes them extremely fragile so I figure once you start using "respawns" on the front line losses will rise tremendously.

So that would mean my estimate of 15-20k VPs is actually pretty spot on. Going by Spiderys Base VPs (9500) + our Chinese LCU losses = almost 17k VPs. And that is if NO replacements or respawns are lost. And I think its safe to assume that at least some respawns will be used. Going by my second game I lost around 10k worth of Chinese LCU losses. If you add that its around 20k VPs for China...A huge number. And relatively easy to grab for a competent Japanese player. Most definitively a huge factor in any games being played for VPs.

I don't understand how 6900 VPs, respawned at 1/3 of TOE and killed again, becomes 15-20K VPs. What are they teaching you in those Swedish math classes? [:'(] Kidding!

The base VPs... I exported the bases from Tracker into a CSV and had Excel add it up for me. If every Chinese base is built to maximum, it's 15822 VPs for Japan. [X(] There are lots of potential level 9 AFs that have *10 multipliers. 49 bases in total have *10 or higher for Japan, and all together they are worth 14810. 31 of those are potential level 9 AFs, and 3 of those 31 have ports as well.

I would say that this is a very large, almost un-counterable VP bank for Japan...except that in order to build all of those up, Japan needs to commit a lot of engineers for years. That would leave forts weaker elsewhere.

Don´t be mean! [:D]

Most Chinese units actually start the game below 30% TOE or there around! So another 3000 LCU losses are not very unlikely at all. Especially considering how extremely fragile those respawns will be. 30/30 and nothing but rifle squads...ouch!

16k base VPs. Jeezus! Are you sure? [X(]

But as you say. Investing that heavily in China and you might end up having B24s bombing the HI in mid 44...

Its kind of fascinating though. China has always been considered more or less a side show. But when you look at it its loads and loads of VPs. All within easy reach of the HI. And looking at my game with Tom not much is needed but China and that crucial denial of Noumea for the allies.

I wonder if at least Noumea should be looked at. Having an allied x50 multiplier is HUGE. I wonder if it would be better to spread those x50s out to multiple locations instead. Feels kind of odd that Noumea alone is worth more then Gilberts and Marshalls combined. It encourage force projection in a quite unrealistic way.

Then there is the question of China and the balance there...I´ve would have loved to look at Toms setup. I´ve asked him twice if he would share his PW but no response so I guess I won´t be able to check it out. [:(]

I think the average Chinese LCU TOE size is probably around 50%...some are about 2/3 TOE, but as I was typing many of the devices numbers in, I noticed that they were around half of their total potential squad sizes.

I am positive about the base VP total. Keep in mind, however, that there's lots of walking between these bases and lots of levels to be built up. Costs a lot in time, engineers, and supply. I would never do it as Japan. It's just not worth the investment. Certain choice bases, sure. Mostly in the Changsha/Chungking area as you're going to build some of those up anyway and making a short detour to get another couple hundred VPs isn't that bad.

I am thinking that China probably needs a rebalance. I think Bullwinkle might be on the right tack with higher garrison requirements (for both sides?), but I think a "double whammy" of higher garrison requirements as well as some tweaking of base VPs might "fix" China and make it more of a choice rather than a no-brainer. Namely, reduce the number of bases worth *10, probably reduce the multiplier on Chungking to 150 from 200, maybe drop Chengtu to 75...

I've also thought Kunming is undervalued on VPs at only *25. Lanchow/Sining could be looked at also.

I agree with you on Noumea. Koumac is almost as good of a base. Perhaps *10 for Koumac, *40 for Noumea [;)]. That makes it harder to build up your VPs, though...so keep that in mind.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I am thinking that China probably needs a rebalance. I think Bullwinkle might be on the right tack with higher garrison requirements (for both sides?), but I think a "double whammy" of higher garrison requirements as well as some tweaking of base VPs might "fix" China and make it more of a choice rather than a no-brainer. Namely, reduce the number of bases worth *10, probably reduce the multiplier on Chungking to 150 from 200, maybe drop Chengtu to 75...

I've also thought Kunming is undervalued on VPs at only *25. Lanchow/Sining could be looked at also.

I agree with you on Noumea. Koumac is almost as good of a base. Perhaps *10 for Koumac, *40 for Noumea [;)]. That makes it harder to build up your VPs, though...so keep that in mind.

Given China in stock was laid down what? six or seven years ago before anyone had wrung out the game, I think it was fine then. It's not now. People have learned and AARs are forever.

I do think garrisons would help a lot, but I would weight them more to the western side of China where I believe the Red Army was more active. Some increases for the Chinese side too to make a full-scale bug-out for Chungking hurt. In exchange, I'd give most every city-base (not dots necessarily) some little bit of organic supply. If that's supposed to essentially represent food and clothes every city and countryside could do that without industry.

And yes, rebalancing the VPs to make Chungking less of a golden chest of VPs would make things less predictable.

I don't really have a dog in the Noumea fight. Change it, leave it alone, I don't care. It's an island. If Japan takes it they're going to lose it. Early, late, doesn't matter. If they want to build me a nice AF, fine. (This means you, Loka![:)]) It's only a matter of when. China is a whole different kind of problem. You can walk there from most of the map.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I am thinking that China probably needs a rebalance. I think Bullwinkle might be on the right tack with higher garrison requirements (for both sides?), but I think a "double whammy" of higher garrison requirements as well as some tweaking of base VPs might "fix" China and make it more of a choice rather than a no-brainer. Namely, reduce the number of bases worth *10, probably reduce the multiplier on Chungking to 150 from 200, maybe drop Chengtu to 75...

I've also thought Kunming is undervalued on VPs at only *25. Lanchow/Sining could be looked at also.

I agree with you on Noumea. Koumac is almost as good of a base. Perhaps *10 for Koumac, *40 for Noumea [;)]. That makes it harder to build up your VPs, though...so keep that in mind.

Given China in stock was laid down what? six or seven years ago before anyone had wrung out the game, I think it was fine then. It's not now. People have learned and AARs are forever.

I do think garrisons would help a lot, but I would weight them more to the western side of China where I believe the Red Army was more active. Some increases for the Chinese side too to make a full-scale bug-out for Chungking hurt. In exchange, I'd give most every city-base (not dots necessarily) some little bit of organic supply. If that's supposed to essentially represent food and clothes every city and countryside could do that without industry.

And yes, rebalancing the VPs to make Chungking less of a golden chest of VPs would make things less predictable.

I don't really have a dog in the Noumea fight. Change it, leave it alone, I don't care. It's an island. If Japan takes it they're going to lose it. Early, late, doesn't matter. If they want to build me a nice AF, fine. (This means you, Loka![:)]) It's only a matter of when. China is a whole different kind of problem. You can walk there from most of the map.

Why do you think I've mostly left Noumea's facilities alone? [:)] If you want them, you have to build it. I'm not doing it for you!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


Why do you think I've mostly left Noumea's facilities alone? [:)] If you want them, you have to build it. I'm not doing it for you!

4-5 Seabee REGIMENTS should do nicely! [:)]

[Spidery]

Doesn't base building take a lot of supply as well? Japan may get the VPs but weakens the home islands if it has to ship most of the supply to China.
I wonder if Japan can generate enough supply to build the aircraft and ships it wants plus feed IJ China's base-building program?

Could reasonably expect to capture 400 LI in China and 160 oil. In stock that produces 2000 supply per day. It takes 7000 supply to take a base from size 0 to size 7 if SRS is 7. So captured industry in China can fund the expansion of all the size 10+ bases to their SRS value within 6 months. Probably won't have the engineers to do this though.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Doesn't base building take a lot of supply as well? Japan may get the VPs but weakens the home islands if it has to ship most of the supply to China.
I wonder if Japan can generate enough supply to build the aircraft and ships it wants plus feed IJ China's base-building program?

Could reasonably expect to capture 400 LI in China and 160 oil. In stock that produces 2000 supply per day. It takes 7000 supply to take a base from size 0 to size 7 if SRS is 7. So captured industry in China can fund the expansion of all the size 10+ bases to their SRS value within 6 months. Probably won't have the engineers to do this though.

Yeah, I think the engineers is the problem. There just aren't that many to go around. Many people buy them out from Fusan once Fusan's port is completed. I still send some to China, but not a lot. It isn't until late '42 that you begin to get Const Co units as reinforcements, and still not very many.

Sure, you can have LCUs and their organic engineers build your bases, and you'll have JNAF and JAAF units to help, but... still not enough engineers.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

Doesn't base building take a lot of supply as well? Japan may get the VPs but weakens the home islands if it has to ship most of the supply to China.
I wonder if Japan can generate enough supply to build the aircraft and ships it wants plus feed IJ China's base-building program?

Could reasonably expect to capture 400 LI in China and 160 oil. In stock that produces 2000 supply per day. It takes 7000 supply to take a base from size 0 to size 7 if SRS is 7. So captured industry in China can fund the expansion of all the size 10+ bases to their SRS value within 6 months. Probably won't have the engineers to do this though.

Thus the problem .. the DBB is the genre today .. also one needs fuel for those LI to produce. Another insidious problem for the IJ that does not catch up till later ...

[topeverest]

good comments here. Enterprising JFB's have figured out this VP auto victory solution to the game. I don't think there is anything wrong with that on its face.

Our mod plays with far fewer VP's in China and larger garrison requirements. This has the impact of deterring a VP play while still allowing the empire to attempt to conquer the allied power.

IMHO - Let me suggest if you don't like the possibility of empire auto victory heavily influenced by China VP's to agree to reduce all Chinese cities to 0 (or 1) including the major cities. You also can add 50 to 100 garrison to the sizable Chinese cities to reflect historical garrison requirements.

I want to be clear that I support VP's and empire auto victory as a philosophy, but the empire needs to earn those China VP's elsewhere. Let me suggest the offset is to increase the VP's for places like NZ, OZ, Fiji, Hawaii, and Alaska. This will transfer the locations Empire will need to acquire to win auto victory.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: topeverest

good comments here. Enterprising JFB's have figured out this VP auto victory solution to the game. I don't think there is anything wrong with that on its face.

Our mod plays with far fewer VP's in China and larger garrison requirements. This has the impact of deterring a VP play while still allowing the empire to attempt to conquer the allied power.

IMHO - Let me suggest if you don't like the possibility of empire auto victory heavily influenced by China VP's to agree to reduce all Chinese cities to 0 (or 1) including the major cities. You also can add 50 to 100 garrison to the sizable Chinese cities to reflect historical garrison requirements.

I want to be clear that I support VP's and empire auto victory as a philosophy, but the empire needs to earn those China VP's elsewhere. Let me suggest the offset is to increase the VP's for places like NZ, OZ, Fiji, Hawaii, and Alaska. This will transfer the locations Empire will need to acquire to win auto victory.

A good idea. But a big undertaking and quite hard to get the right balance. Not sure I dare to try! [:)]

[JocMeister]

Speaking of which...starting to think about my next game. I´ll for sure revise some of my HRs. One I will blatantly steal from Cribtop: No strat bombing before 1/43. [:D] Also will add a sliding scale to the max ALT. My intention with the HR was to remove the dive bonus. But I didn´t consider the max altitude of early fighters which was well below our HRed max altitude. So the dive bonus was still present.

But I wonder about China. What could/should be changed here. I´m very worried about doing "too much" here and turn the Chinese into a power house in 44-45. I´m thinking a very small increase in supply for the Chinese + gnarly roads PWHEX file (is that available for the extended map?). Possibly mirroring the changes in Treaty Mod.

I´m also thinking perhaps a HR that doesn´t allow Manchurian armor/arty in China? Or a limitation on how many tanks/arty that can be stacked in a Chinese hex? To harsh? To intrusive? Or simply a HR that start a 3 month cease fire in China to allow the Chinese to get into better positions and dig in. The Chinese starting positions are very disadvantageous.

My goal would be to bring some "fun" into China. I still think the Japanese in the hands of a competent Japanese player should be able to make gains here. But not overrun the entire continent in a couple of months as we have seen lately in many AARs. I just want to make it a bit tougher and try and do something about supply running out in 3 months dooming the Chinese. Move the oil from Lanchow to Chungking?

Ideas? Opinions?

[obvert]

The gnarly roads will do a lot to help in China. Offensives don't work as well if the supply flow is limited and sporadic.

Increasingly higher garrison requirements for the Japanese as they move deeper into China might also help slow the advance after a certain point without having any affect on the later war Chinese Army.

[Cribtop]

Gnarly roads is available on extended map. Michael and I are using it in our game.

[JocMeister]

Erik, do you and GJ use it?

Cribtop, I know its very early in your game. But have you noticed any effects from this?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Erik, do you and GJ use it?

Cribtop, I know its very early in your game. But have you noticed any effects from this?

We don't use it, but I've read about the details of it and it just seems it'll really slow everything down in China, especially since the very smart guys that made it had that as their primary intention. One of the reasons supply runs well off-road is that there are such good rail/road systems close to the off road areas of China. If it has to travel 2-3 hexes it's not so hard to make stuff move regularly. If it's 6-10 hexes from good transport, then it'll be much tougher to draw. Also, movement will simply be slower.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Is it compatible with DBB?

thanks

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Is it compatible with DBB?

thanks

I would hope so since it was created by them! [:D]

Symon made the Gnarly Roads.