Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[BBfanboy]

Kaga is too big to go into the estuary that leads to Palembang. There is a shipyard at Saigon but it starts out at 10K tons so it will not dock Kaga either.
If he has Hong Kong that would be the nearest DY over 38,000 tons. Otherwise it is Nagasaki or Hiroshima.
However, Kaga is a really tough bird and I have seen several occasions where a single allied torp did not even cause enough damage to send it for repairs right away.
Still, you have to try! If there were any secondary explosions of fuel or ammo that would help a lot, as would "damage to the engines" reported as the torp hit her.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
I don't think so. IJA is fairly power and the RN is very ill-prepared to take on the IJN so an Indian adventure can be rewarding. As I've mentioned before many AFBs are naive and get drawn into fights they should try to stay away from and India can be one of those places. Lots of open terrain make offensive operations fluid and dynamic which serves the Rommels of the (PC) world like me very well. On the other hand, that can work against the Japanese when the Allies are ready to push back and lead to some easy 1942 victories.
...Diego Garcia is tough to defend early and a battalion won't be enough to stop the Japanese if they come, but it could make them think twice about trying. You'll be getting a good deal of reinforcements in Aden in the coming months so be sure to get transports there. By the middle of 1942 you should have enough reinforcements in India to feel comfortable.

You've got me looking more closely at India. I don't have the experience yet to do anything fancy there, but will likely pick to build up and defend just a few key cities and then anticipate a fighting withdrawal from everywhere else.

My tentative plan for Diego Garcia is to move enough there in the short-run to avoid Q-Ball grabbing it on the cheap. I think I started by one AI game two years ago and haven't really confronted the fact that the Allies get so little of anything for quite a long time.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Kaga is too big to go into the estuary that leads to Palembang. There is a shipyard at Saigon but it starts out at 10K tons so it will not dock Kaga either.
If he has Hong Kong that would be the nearest DY over 38,000 tons. Otherwise it is Nagasaki or Hiroshima.
However, Kaga is a really tough bird and I have seen several occasions where a single allied torp did not even cause enough damage to send it for repairs right away.
Still, you have to try! If there were any secondary explosions of fuel or ammo that would help a lot, as would "damage to the engines" reported as the torp hit her.

Thanks for the info above. I don't know much about the Japanese side to know where big boats go to get fixed. Hong Kong is still holding out but should fall very soon.

When the Kaga was hit, two messages appeared, one about "belt armor" and the other about "listing." Those can't be good for a ship.

I was hoping I'd get another shot at the CV the following night turn, as a bunch of subs were close by, but no-go. My air search wasn't able to determine where the Kaga is going: too many Japanese TFs in the area going every which way, none of which were identified as having any carrier. But I have to assume it might be going to Japan, so I'll try to send all subs in the area to intercept it. Sadly, most of the subs between the Kaga and Japan are packing duds.

[Panjack]

December 18, 1941
--------------
Hong Kong and Palembang are barely holding out. Nothing is going into or out of Singapore any longer. Japanese subs are continuing to be effective against merchant ships. But the pace of action is slowing a bit, think goodness but lots of Japanese LCUs are moving in China, clearly massing for an attack. I don't know where KB is.

More good news on the Allied sub front: two torpedoes were put into the CS below and my intel guys are claiming it now sits on the bottom of the ocean. I don't know if I believe that, but it is nice to put this pesky carrier want-to-be out of action for awhile (at the least).

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Kaga is too big to go into the estuary that leads to Palembang. There is a shipyard at Saigon but it starts out at 10K tons so it will not dock Kaga either.
If he has Hong Kong that would be the nearest DY over 38,000 tons. Otherwise it is Nagasaki or Hiroshima.
However, Kaga is a really tough bird and I have seen several occasions where a single allied torp did not even cause enough damage to send it for repairs right away.
Still, you have to try! If there were any secondary explosions of fuel or ammo that would help a lot, as would "damage to the engines" reported as the torp hit her.

Thanks for the info above. I don't know much about the Japanese side to know where big boats go to get fixed. Hong Kong is still holding out but should fall very soon.

When the Kaga was hit, two messages appeared, one about "belt armor" and the other about "listing." Those can't be good for a ship.

I was hoping I'd get another shot at the CV the following night turn, as a bunch of subs were close by, but no-go. My air search wasn't able to determine where the Kaga is going: too many Japanese TFs in the area going every which way, none of which were identified as having any carrier. But I have to assume it might be going to Japan, so I'll try to send all subs in the area to intercept it. Sadly, most of the subs between the Kaga and Japan are packing duds.

The "Listing, Counterflooding" message means significant flooding, say 10-15%. This will slow her down 3-4 kts, but she will still travel faster than your subs. You need some already on her path to Nagasaki or Hiroshima.

Chiyoda might be gone if there was fire or extra damage from explosions. Check the aircraft losses for about 18 IJN float planes as ground losses. Also remember to listen for sinking sounds for the next turn or two.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
The "Listing, Counterflooding" message means significant flooding, say 10-15%. This will slow her down 3-4 kts, but she will still travel faster than your subs. You need some already on her path to Nagasaki or Hiroshima.

Chiyoda might be gone if there was fire or extra damage from explosions. Check the aircraft losses for about 18 IJN float planes as ground losses. Also remember to listen for sinking sounds for the next turn or two.

Thanks! It seems to play this game you need to know 147,000 things! No evidence exists of float plane losses so I guess the claimed sinking was false. I've already moved subs in reasonable locations and can now only keep my fingers crossed.

[Panjack]

December 19 and 20, 1941
----------------
Japan's expansion seems to have slowed. In fact, it's "too quiet" and so I'm a bit concerned about what might be happening so far unseen by me.

In the last couple of days, Japan's intentions about China are becoming clearer.

Starting with the North...

For 3 days in a row, Q-Ball has attacked at the red circle. So far it’s been bombardment attacks supplemented with one attack from the air. The Japanese ground units include the 2nd Indep Mixed Brigade, which my understanding is was paid for with PP. These continued attacks, and the presence of a purchased unit, must signal one line of advance planned by Q-Ball.

My concern is that if he gets past the mountains near the circle he has clear sailing all the way to Lanchow. The Chinese units in the mountains to the NE (if that is the true direction) of the circled hex could threaten his rear if he moves towards Lanchow but that isn’t much. I have a number of units at Yenan, a town he hasn’t moved toward yet, and some of these units might be released to move either north or east if need be. And units far to the south of Lanchow could be marched up towards that town or, at least, to the mountains south of the town.

But I guess it's always possible these attacks are diversionary and intended to draw my units up north to further weaken China in the center and south. Railing some units to the dot base below Lanchow, where one unit already sits, might be a good middle course of action.

I'm a bit concerned about that dot base a handful of hexes from Lanchow in the desert. I'm not sure what para drop abilities Japan has at this time, but a Japanese breakthrough at the mountains combined with a capture of the dot base would be a bad thing for me, wouldn't it?

Next turn I’ll replace bad commanders in the units in the mountain hexes but am open to suggestions about what else to do.

[GreyJoy]

Be carefull with India.
He will get Diego, no matter what you place there, if he wants to. Don't waste precious Bdes there. A small Base force for some Catalinas will be more than enough for the moment.
Same with Ceylon. Don't assume you can defend it. You cannot.
Get back and defend Bombay. That's the key in early 1942. Defend Bombay and Karachi. Don't care for the AF or port building. Build ONLY forts for now. And mass your best units there. The rest of India is lost if he really wants it, so don't be confident now. Fall back.

Same in Oz. Don't waste troops defending Perth, Darwin or Cairns. Draw a line at Brisbane-Sydney and start building defences NOW.

Idem for Noumea and Lungaville and Suva. Start building far away places like Thaiti...just in case he goes for a "pacific strategy".

Brad is strong and experienced and he will look for your jugular. don't expose. Be a rabbit, for the moment. be a rabbit and learn. If you'll survive until 1943 you will have learnt and you will be able to bite him back. for the moment just assume he could go everywhere and conquer whatever he wants and act accordingly.

[Panjack]

Welcome, GreyJoy. Now, you're just a ray of sunshine, aren't you. [:D]

Seriously, your suggestions are well-taken. Indeed, as we speak most units are falling back from Darwin, the Navel HQ has already left Columbo with more to follow soon, units are migrating to Bombay and Karachi (but some are also, for now, resting at Calcutta), forts...and only forts....are being built everywhere reasonable (that is, at least outside the WC where most AF are being expanded to maximum), and not a single thing has been built yet in the Pacific and won't be for some time. However, Dutch Harbor already has quite an impressive collection of auxiliary ships! And the Penguin, that brave little ship that started out at Guam, is about to arrive to become the flag ship for the whole collection.

I'm still trying to figure out what to do about Diego Garcia: too many conflicting suggestions on what to do at that base. If DG and Perth are in Japanese hands and nothing really exists between PH and Australia I'm not certain how fuel and supplies are to get to Oz. [:(]

And I'm not certain whether to focus on (1) Sydney and Melborne or (2) Sydney and Brisbane. And I'm not sure I can preemptively give up on Perth yet.

But, luckily, I know I'll continue to get good suggestions here as darkness envelops the Allies for the next few months.

Yours Truly,

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
My concern is that if he gets past the mountains near the circle he has clear sailing all the way to Lanchow. The Chinese units in the mountains to the NE (if that is the true direction) of the circled hex could threaten his rear if he moves towards Lanchow but that isn’t much. I have a number of units at Yenan, a town he hasn’t moved toward yet, and some of these units might be released to move either north or east if need be. And units far to the south of Lanchow could be marched up towards that town or, at least, to the mountains south of the town.

But I guess it's always possible these attacks are diversionary and intended to draw my units up north to further weaken China in the center and south. Railing some units to the dot base below Lanchow, where one unit already sits, might be a good middle course of action.

I'm a bit concerned about that dot base a handful of hexes from Lanchow in the desert. I'm not sure what para drop abilities Japan has at this time, but a Japanese breakthrough at the mountains combined with a capture of the dot base would be a bad thing for me, wouldn't it?

Next turn I’ll replace bad commanders in the units in the mountain hexes but am open to suggestions about what else to do.

You shouldn't worry about a Japanese advance towards Lanchow very much. Its a long march on a dirt road and it doesn't really do much because all the important things in China are to the south. In the event Japan does march and takes Lanchow you should be able to set up a position in the mountains to prevent a march towards Sian. My advice is to pulls back from Paotow if this is still a worry and just set up positions along the dirt road to give you warning in the off chance Japan does go this way.

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Be carefull with India.
He will get Diego, no matter what you place there, if he wants to. Don't waste precious Bdes there. A small Base force for some Catalinas will be more than enough for the moment.
Same with Ceylon. Don't assume you can defend it. You cannot.
Get back and defend Bombay. That's the key in early 1942. Defend Bombay and Karachi. Don't care for the AF or port building. Build ONLY forts for now. And mass your best units there. The rest of India is lost if he really wants it, so don't be confident now. Fall back.

Same in Oz. Don't waste troops defending Perth, Darwin or Cairns. Draw a line at Brisbane-Sydney and start building defences NOW.

Idem for Noumea and Lungaville and Suva. Start building far away places like Thaiti...just in case he goes for a "pacific strategy".

GreyJoy as usual is pretty spot on although I think he is overstating Japanese abilities a bit; while Japan does have the ability to knock you over anywhere you try to stand the reality is that Japan may not choose to go there. For example, I have never lost Diego Garcia in my games for the sole reason that none of my Japanese opponents have ever tried invading it.

The one disagreement I have with this analysis is Ceylon. If you concentrate the bulk of your defenses in Trincolomee to the east you may be able to defend against Japanese moves there in the coming months. It sits in 3x terrain, has a fortress unit, and is only a short distance from some bases in India. In other words, its a pretty ideal place to defend. Japan of course can still take it against your best efforts but Trincolomee is definitely a place worth clinging onto from the start. Most unsuccessful defensive efforts in Ceylon fail because the Allied player chooses to guard Colombo in strength which lies in 1x terrain. They lose there then lack the strength to defend Trincolomee robustly.

In general I would say that it's hard to go wrong with defending 3x terrain right now if you can get reinforcements there w/o interdiction. Even if it's a position you can't hold the fact its 3x terrain means that Japan is going to have to commit a lot more units to take the base than you commit. Japan cannot confront all of these 3x positions at once with the forces available so it's inevitably going to slow him down. But you can't be strong in many places at once so it's important to pick these spots wisely.

[Bullwinkle58]

There's no reason to lose Perth. You can strip the SE of Oz and rail it to Perth pretty much. If he wants Sydney he can have it, for a division+ garrison and activation of the Emergency Reinforcements. You can easily get three Aussie IDs plus armor and arty to Perth, to add to the CD. Lokasenna put about five IDs and the whole KB on western OZ in our game and I still hold the place. Retreating is fine, but don't do it for nothing.

I also agree Ceylon can and should be held. Losing that shipyard is a crisis for you. Scrape and borrow, and don't forget it's a naval game, not just pretty airplanes. Ceylon is an island. Ergo . . .

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
You shouldn't worry about a Japanese advance towards Lanchow very much....

That makes sense. Although Lanchow has, I think, resources, light industry, oil, and a refinery it isn't really a great contributor to supply in China nor a great use to Japan? I certainly prefer not to have to do much to protect a town so exposed as it is.

GreyJoy as usual is pretty spot on although I think he is overstating Japanese abilities a bit; while Japan does have the ability to knock you over anywhere you try to stand the reality is that Japan may not choose to go there. For example, I have never lost Diego Garcia in my games for the sole reason that none of my Japanese opponents have ever tried invading it.

My inclination is to defend DG, but the list of placed needing units is already pretty long!

The one disagreement I have with this analysis is Ceylon. If you concentrate the bulk of your defenses in Trincolomee to the east you may be able to defend against Japanese moves there in the coming months. It sits in 3x terrain, has a fortress unit, and is only a short distance from some bases in India. In other words, its a pretty ideal place to defend. Japan of course can still take it against your best efforts but Trincolomee is definitely a place worth clinging onto from the start. Most unsuccessful defensive efforts in Ceylon fail because the Allied player chooses to guard Colombo in strength which lies in 1x terrain. They lose there then lack the strength to defend Trincolomee robustly.

That makes sense, but a question. What benefit does holding Trincolomee have if you don't have Columbo? Is it to make it possible to deny the use to Japan of the shipyard/navel base at Columbo and, so, to force Japan, if they want to use Columbo, to use lots of units to attack Trincolomee that they otherwise might use elsewhere?

[Panjack]

Hi Mr. B-W,

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
...I also agree Ceylon can and should be held. Losing that shipyard is a crisis for you. Scrape and borrow, and don't forget it's a naval game, not just pretty airplanes. Ceylon is an island. Ergo . . .

Question: is that shipyard useful if Japan has bombers nearby?

[Cribtop]

I think the first poster meant that you shouldn't have to worry much about an advance along Lanchow along that vector. The base itself is very useful to Japan. If Japan takes the oil and refineries at Lanchow and Sian, it will significantly prolong the amount of time Manchuria can produce HI and supplies without requiring fuel shipments.

Conversely, if the Chinese lose the Oil at Lanchow and Sian, eventually they will run out of fuel and that will shut down production of supplies from Chinese HI.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
a question. What benefit does holding Trincolomee have if you don't have Columbo? Is it to make it possible to deny the use to Japan of the shipyard/navel base at Columbo and, so, to force Japan, if they want to use Columbo, to use lots of units to attack Trincolomee that they otherwise might use elsewhere?

Well as long as you have a foothold of some sort in any island (Ceylon being a good example) the rest of the Japanese positions on the island are not secure. Ya he'll hold Colombo and be able to make use of it to a certain extent but retaking it will be exponentially easier if you don't have force a landing on the island.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Question: is that shipyard useful if Japan has bombers nearby?

I think Bullwinkle is overstating the importance of that shipyard. Unless Japan has southern India in its hand its a vulnerable shipyard to utilize. Regardless who controls it if the enemy has bombers in range the shipyard very risky to use. As I've mentioned before even level bombers can be accurate against ships in port meaning a single squadron of B-17's could sink a Japanese CV in the shipyard. In the long run its going to be important for the Allies but initially not so much I think. The base is more important with regards to being able to rearm torps and BBs if you ask me.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I think the first poster meant that you shouldn't have to worry much about an advance along Lanchow along that vector. The base itself is very useful to Japan. If Japan takes the oil and refineries at Lanchow and Sian, it will significantly prolong the amount of time Manchuria can produce HI and supplies without requiring fuel shipments.

Conversely, if the Chinese lose the Oil at Lanchow and Sian, eventually they will run out of fuel and that will shut down production of supplies from Chinese HI.

Actually I wasn't aware of the oil and refineries in Lanchow. If that's the case then its important to defend the base. But either way its a long march towards Lanchow and if you're setting up screens along that road you're going to have ample time to react and get units in positions. What you shouldn't do is overreact and send 1k AV to defend against a thrust that hasn't even really materialized yet; there are certainly more pressing and urgent issues to deal with in China I'm sure.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Hi Mr. B-W,

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
...I also agree Ceylon can and should be held. Losing that shipyard is a crisis for you. Scrape and borrow, and don't forget it's a naval game, not just pretty airplanes. Ceylon is an island. Ergo . . .

Question: is that shipyard useful if Japan has bombers nearby?

Nearby where?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I think Bullwinkle is overstating the importance of that shipyard. Unless Japan has southern India in its hand its a vulnerable shipyard to utilize. Regardless who controls it if the enemy has bombers in range the shipyard very risky to use. As I've mentioned before even level bombers can be accurate against ships in port meaning a single squadron of B-17's could sink a Japanese CV in the shipyard. In the long run its going to be important for the Allies but initially not so much I think. The base is more important with regards to being able to rearm torps and BBs if you ask me.

Nope. It's a vital yard, due to size and location. Any naval engagement that causes flooding damage to anything larger than a DD and it's CT a month away if the ship lives. Without Colombo any carrier ops in the IO are insanely dangerous. Bombay is tiny, as is Calcutta. Aden is pretty worthless until the Med opens in 1943 and the UK is a possibility for large ships.

Anything that might go to defend DG ought to go to Ceylon. DG is a one-day run in from the wormhole for two screaming USMC divisions if needed. The Japanese can never feel secure there with the off-map mechanics in the game.

Yeah, if he has heavy bomber concentrations at Madras or something you've got bigger problems than the shipyard. But Colombo starts with a very good AF, it can take immense supply on in the first month if you get busy at Bombay, and it's a short, safe jump onto Ceylon from Madras, which has rail connections to anywhere.

He wants to bomb from Tricom. good luck bringing in the supply needed for a major air campaign. That's what the RN is for. I also rustle up a pretty good portion of the USN to work the coast between Ceylon and Calcutta in the first six months. Akyab is a very dangerous base to lose as the Allies, at least early. Far more dangerous than anything on Ceylon.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I think Bullwinkle is overstating the importance of that shipyard. Unless Japan has southern India in its hand its a vulnerable shipyard to utilize. Regardless who controls it if the enemy has bombers in range the shipyard very risky to use. As I've mentioned before even level bombers can be accurate against ships in port meaning a single squadron of B-17's could sink a Japanese CV in the shipyard. In the long run its going to be important for the Allies but initially not so much I think. The base is more important with regards to being able to rearm torps and BBs if you ask me.

Nope. It's a vital yard, due to size and location. Any naval engagement that causes flooding damage to anything larger than a DD and it's CT a month away if the ship lives. Without Colombo any carrier ops in the IO are insanely dangerous. Bombay is tiny, as is Calcutta. Aden is pretty worthless until the Med opens in 1943 and the UK is a possibility for large ships.

Anything that might go to defend DG ought to go to Ceylon. DG is a one-day run in from the wormhole for two screaming USMC divisions if needed. The Japanese can never feel secure there with the off-map mechanics in the game.

Yeah, if he has heavy bomber concentrations at Madras or something you've got bigger problems than the shipyard. But Colombo starts with a very good AF, it can take immense supply on in the first month if you get busy at Bombay, and it's a short, safe jump onto Ceylon from Madras, which has rail connections to anywhere.

He wants to bomb from Tricom. good luck bringing in the supply needed for a major air campaign. That's what the RN is for. I also rustle up a pretty good portion of the USN to work the coast between Ceylon and Calcutta in the first six months. Akyab is a very dangerous base to lose as the Allies, at least early. Far more dangerous than anything on Ceylon.

Well if you're going for offensive carrier ops in the IO then ya Colombo is important. I don't think Panjack is anywhere close to that point yet; I'm evaluating the importance of Colombo with the current situation and the foreseeable future. Which is why I said it would be important in the long run but should not factor in Panjack's current plans. If you're invading Sumatra it's invaluable but if you're invading Sumatra you're already going to have Colombo; it's a catch 22.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I think the first poster meant that you shouldn't have to worry much about an advance along Lanchow along that vector....

Is that because of the long supply line involved moving to Lanchow from Paotow? I guess units moving that way are also pretty exposed to bombing.