Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I think the first poster meant that you shouldn't have to worry much about an advance along Lanchow along that vector....

Is that because of the long supply line involved moving to Lanchow from Paotow? I guess units moving that way are also pretty exposed to bombing.

Being an effective fighter in China is all about understanding the role of maneuver and decision making. If Japan is marching down 1000 AV towards Lanchow it's going to take him 2 weeks to get there. Assuming you are keeping operational reserves you should have enough time to get reserves in to stop him and you can replace those reserves with units from the quiet parts of the line/units that need rest. The killer for Japan of course is that if the attack in Lanchow bogs down it will take him many weeks to march those units from Lanchow back to redeploy for another attack. Which is why wide flanking maneuvers through bad terrain and narrow roads are generally not a good idea.

The amount of defense you need should be partially based off how much warning and how long it takes reserves to get into place. Using this principle can drastically reduce the amount of units you need in certain quiet sectors; you can use the bulk of your units in reserve in those if you have time to get them into position before the Japanese. I find this especially helpful in open SE China where I split up corps and send them to reconnoiter Japanese positions and utilize the extensive roads for mobile reserves.

[Panjack]

My take-away from the very different perspectives offered by GreyJoy, Sangeli, and Bullwinkle is that skilled players can approach the game in very different ways and be successful.

Which isn't much help to someone like me who isn't a skilled player! [8D]

However, the discussion has made me look at the map differently and I greatly appreciate people offering their suggestions and opinions. And although it makes sense to move with all deliberate speed, I don't need to rush into committing to one particular approach over another right now about Diego Garcia or Ceylon, given that almost any reasonable plan is premised on getting good units into key cities in India and Oz (and getting supply to these same places) and I am already moving forward with that. If I mess up with everything else, and perhaps implement incompetent defenses (or lack of defenses) on Diego Garcia and Ceylon, I can take come comfort in the fact that hunkering down in the key cities in India and Oz should allow even an unskilled player like me to eventually turn things around. I hope.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
Being an effective fighter in China is all about understanding the role of maneuver and decision making. If Japan is marching down 1000 AV towards Lanchow it's going to take him 2 weeks to get there. Assuming you are keeping operational reserves you should have enough time to get reserves in to stop him and you can replace those reserves with units from the quiet parts of the line/units that need rest. The killer for Japan of course is that if the attack in Lanchow bogs down it will take him many weeks to march those units from Lanchow back to redeploy for another attack. Which is why wide flanking maneuvers through bad terrain and narrow roads are generally not a good idea.

The amount of defense you need should be partially based off how much warning and how long it takes reserves to get into place. Using this principle can drastically reduce the amount of units you need in certain quiet sectors; you can use the bulk of your units in reserve in those if you have time to get them into position before the Japanese. I find this especially helpful in open SE China where I split up corps and send them to reconnoiter Japanese positions and utilize the extensive roads for mobile reserves.

Again, very helpful.

My first problem in China was just getting units moving to good terrain and not over-stacking key hexes. I'm almost there. A couple of issues are still outstanding, such as what to do about Kukong. My lack of experience with a skilled human player and with SL (and DaIronBabes!) means I don't yet have a good feel for how offenses in China go: how quickly they develop, how quickly Chinese units wear down, and how to manage moving units into and out of the lines. And, as you point out, I need to figure out a scheme for mobile reserves and the sooner the better. Left to myself, I would likely create a too-static defensive system with too many units crammed up against the front lines.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

Well if you're going for offensive carrier ops in the IO then ya Colombo is important. I don't think Panjack is anywhere close to that point yet; I'm evaluating the importance of Colombo with the current situation and the foreseeable future. Which is why I said it would be important in the long run but should not factor in Panjack's current plans. If you're invading Sumatra it's invaluable but if you're invading Sumatra you're already going to have Colombo; it's a catch 22.

Not just carrier ops. As I said, Colombo is the real key to being able to defend Akyab/Cox/Chittagong in a naval sense. The jungle gap south of Akyab from Burma makes seaborne supply transport vital for Japan if they come in multi-division strength. Calcutta can refuel/rearm your navy, but it can't fix most of the cruisers or any of the BBs you'll need to have a chance against IJN BBs coming to bombard. If you lose that 3-base strip the railroad system all the way to Karachi is open to Japan, with a first stop the HI well at Calcutta. He doesn't need to use transports to get to Bombay; he can take the train.

Without Colombo a flooding "nick" of 15 or so makes a cruiser a high risk asset to keep on the battle line. And without Colombo that nick costs you two months.

Play it however you want, but I'd put Colombo in the top-5 1942 bases to hold on the left side of the map. Besides the yard it's the best air search base in the IO as well, and a major sub base after Singers falls. From there the Dutch and Brits subs have a short transit to the Rangoon area.

[SqzMyLemon]

I'm about to lose all of Ceylon in my PBEM against Chickenboy. I'll let you know how things progress after that. [:D]

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Not just carrier ops. As I said, Colombo is the real key to being able to defend Akyab/Cox/Chittagong in a naval sense. The jungle gap south of Akyab from Burma makes seaborne supply transport vital for Japan if they come in multi-division strength. Calcutta can refuel/rearm your navy, but it can't fix most of the cruisers or any of the BBs you'll need to have a chance against IJN BBs coming to bombard. If you lose that 3-base strip the railroad system all the way to Karachi is open to Japan, with a first stop the HI well at Calcutta. He doesn't need to use transports to get to Bombay; he can take the train....

Taking the train to Bombay is a scary image. How to you managed the defense of Akyab/Cox/Chittagong on the land and from the sea?

One concern I have of falling back to hunker down in the major cities, as some who have much more experience, knowledge, and skill than I have, is doing so creates a self-fulfilling prophecy: by abandoning everything but the major cities you guarantee the Japanese player ends up attacking the major cities as that's all that is left to attack.

[Panjack]

December 21 and 22, 1941
-----------------------
The 21st was a quiet day but the 22nd saw many bad things happen to Allied ships. A number of transports were sunk at Rangoon in the first attacks on that city. Japanese subs were continuing to be effective near Java and the West Coast. The first attempt to land Japanese troops at Attu was rebuffed by two YPs, but later in the day the Japanese returned and landed on that island (their 3rd island in the Aleutians).

In China Japanese tanks continued to lead the attack on Tsiaotso, driving off 2 Chinese corps and causing almost 2000 casualties. The Chinese army is reconfiguring itself based on a newly imported theory of defense based on mobility rather than on more static formations. Whether the Chinese generals have the ability to implement this new theory is still an open question. Debate continues to rage in the highest levels of the Allied Command as to how to defend India. So far, only a defense premised on deploying massive numbers of biplane fighters in Delhi has been rejected.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
In China Japanese tanks continued to lead the attack on Tsiaotso, driving off 2 Chinese corps and causing almost 2000 casualties. The Chinese army is reconfiguring itself based on a newly imported theory of defense based on mobility rather than on more static formations. Whether the Chinese generals have the ability to implement this new theory is still an open question. Debate continues to rage in the highest levels of the Allied Command as to how to defend India. So far, only a defense premised on deploying massive numbers of biplane fighters in Delhi has been rejected.

Heh. I like your writing style.

With India as well I would stress mobility. But its a different beast b/c you have extensive railways but the Japanese can outflank via amphibious landing. My recommendation is to keep units in strat mode do they can redeploy without having to change modes.

But with India, unlike China, you really have no idea how much of an effort the Japanese will make. You don't want to give up Akyab via land advance from Burma b/c you were being too conservative but at the same time you don't want to lose Bombay because you were deployed too far east. However, since its your first time around I would probably err on the conservative side and refrain from deploying a bunch of units in eastern India away from the rail roads. So probably don't go past Cox's Bazaar for a while. A serious invasion of India will be preceded by an invasion of Ceylon so you'll have time to redeploy west if that happens. But an invasion of Eastern India can happen w/o much warning at all. In that case you'll probably just want to fall back and stay out of reach of the IJA and not get your army destroyed. But the rails will help immensely allowing you to change your defensive plans a lot faster than the IJA can move. Just dont' let paratroopers cut off your retreat; there are a couple of vulnerable places in India where this can happn.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Taking the train to Bombay is a scary image. How to you managed the defense of Akyab/Cox/Chittagong on the land and from the sea?

One concern I have of falling back to hunker down in the major cities, as some who have much more experience, knowledge, and skill than I have, is doing so creates a self-fulfilling prophecy: by abandoning everything but the major cities you guarantee the Japanese player ends up attacking the major cities as that's all that is left to attack.

India is a major PITA in the first six months. A time difference of even six weeks can swing the Q & A.

I'm a navy guy. I think about water. A lot of posters here are land-rats or in love with the airplanes. You need a mix, but my first look is usually going to be what can he do by sea. Where can you choke him by sea or actual choke point. In that light, if you're worried about Bombay by sea DON'T LOSE CEYLON. Easy, right? [:)]

You have limited naval assets in the region, mostly Dutch CLs and some pretty good RN DDs. Try to get USS Boise and Houston out and away, and then send them to Colombo for further deployment. Opinions vary on this, but it's what I do. I also get some of the WC USN cruisers headed to CT right away. Minimal escorts; just enough to bridge them from the wormhole to Colombo, where they can link up with RN assets. I need DDs up north in the Aleutians right away.

Akyab is almost certainly at best a second phase objective, and probably even a third phase. You have some time. You can't hold Akyab in 1942 if he wants it (I just lost it in my game with Lokasenna in November.) But you can stall with it long enough to make Calcutta and Chittagong into fortresses. Chittagong in particular is an important "hinge" base--look at the geography. Japan can jump in several directions if it falls, and stage for Calcutta. And it's the railhead.

But trying to defend Akyab in February is a whole different problem than in October. IF he came for it in February you'd be lucky to hold Calcutta. Forget the other three. But that means he isn't doing something else he ought to be doing. Japan is powerful, but not infinite.

In mid-1942 establish flying squadrons of surface ships, keyed on CAs (the RN BBs are pigs), and keep them mobile between Colombo and Calcutta, Put some flanker DDs out in the mid Bay to alert to a move on Madras or the bases east of Madras, also on the RR. Keep the BBs in reserve. You have as much fuel as you need if you dump in Karachi from Abadan. Japan does not have that luxury.

Meanwhile, build Ceylon like your ass is on fire. Supply in six figures inside six weeks. Fuel. Engineers. And most of the theater CAP. Use the RAF 2Es for naval search until you can do better. And build.

Calcutta I make my first Level 7 AF in the region so I can do model upgrades there. Colombo I build forts as fast as possible.

There's lots more to say about India, but it's better you learn. Everything is a trade-off. Nobody here is wrong. It's about weighing.

I will say it is vital in India to micro-manage garrisons. DO NOT let bases fall below. Your supply will stop moving through that rail node if you let the partisans disrupt. You'll have to tri-split units down to get scraps for garrisons for a long time. Pay attention that lots of LCUs have NO AV in them. They're all staff, and worthless for making garrison gates. So to your point that you might withdraw to only large cities--don't do it. You'll give away a trickle of VPs, and you'll blow up your logistics due to garrison revolts.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I'm a navy guy. I think about water. A lot of posters here are land-rats or in love with the airplanes.

Heh. I'm definitely one of those land-rats. But I'd agree with almost of what you wrote despite our different perspectives. The one thing I will add further is don't stockpile a 100k+ of supply in a base if you lack adequate defense. The reason to stockpile supply is to ensure that if you are under siege that you don't collapse due to supply issues. But if you don't have adequate defenses there won't be a siege so it's a mute point. Seems obvious but many newbie AFBs get caught up in the mindset of just stockpiling supply where they might need it eventually and end up giving the Japanese a nice big gift to fuel their economy.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I'm a navy guy. I think about water. A lot of posters here are land-rats or in love with the airplanes.

Heh. I'm definitely one of those land-rats. But I'd agree with almost of what you wrote despite our different perspectives. The one thing I will add further is don't stockpile a 100k+ of supply in a base if you lack adequate defense. The reason to stockpile supply is to ensure that if you are under siege that you don't collapse due to supply issues. But if you don't have adequate defenses there won't be a siege so it's a mute point. Seems obvious but many newbie AFBs get caught up in the mindset of just stockpiling supply where they might need it eventually and end up giving the Japanese a nice big gift to fuel their economy.

See, and I think supply is to rearm ships. [:)]

[Panjack]

December 23, 1941
----------------------
Japanese sub I-164 got three xAKs at Port Blair, launching 7 torpedoes and getting 5 hits.

Allied subs launch 12 torpedoes total at an AO, a TK, an xAK, and a CM. They all missed.

Today the Japanese 110th Division and the 12th Army, two experienced units, joined the ground bombardment party near Paotow in China, where the long road through the desert to Lanchow starts. About 900 Japanese AV is now in that hex. Pretty clear Japan is headed to Lanchow. Chinese High Command have therefore given this enemy operation a official name, "the Lanchow Misadventure." Although they intended this name to express confidence that the Japanese effort to take the town is destined to fail, others thought the name would end up being used as shorthand for the Chinese bungling of the defense of that vital town.

Japanese tanks have been involved in some minor battles in China, but it is not entirely clear where they will end up being used. The presumption is that these tanks will spearhead a second Japanese offensive.

Palembang fell and the Japanese are now working their way down the Solomon Islands. B-17s dropped their first bombs in anger; unfortunately the evidence is that the airfield attack on Ambon merely angered a few birds flying through a rain forest many miles away where the bombs apparently hit, as not a single bomb landed on the target. More training is indicated.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
bout 900 Japanese AV is now in that hex. Pretty clear Japan is headed to Lanchow. Chinese High Command have therefore given this enemy operation a official name, "the Lanchow Misadventure." Although they intended this name to express confidence that the Japanese effort to take the town is destined to fail, others thought the name would end up being used as shorthand for the Chinese bungling of the defense of that vital town.

It could be a small OP just to clear the northern flank of the IJA then head south. If he starts actually marching down that road then I think you can assume that's where the army is going but again its not an urgent to determine this right this instant

Whats the rest of China look like? Mind posting a screenshot?

[Panjack]

I'll get a screenshot up this evening.

[Panjack]

I figure things out by writing, even if some of what I write below is merely restating what others have written, and so...

I don't have the game in front of me, so this is just impressionistic: the RR from Paotow to Wuchang is Japan's greatest weapon. Japan can concentrate its forces at any number of places along that RR, and put China in the position of having to perhaps move reserves to shore up the attacked location and thereby weakening other points along the line, and then Japan can, if the first attack isn't to its satisfaction, move units to a new point along the line, possibly a newly weakened point, much more rapidly than China can (because of the RR).

Two points, then: First, what people have already alluded to, a move over the long desert trail to Lanchow represents Japan giving up this most powerful weapon, the ability to move quickly by making use of the RR as troops along that trail are far from the RR and far from their own reserves. In fact, from the point of view of China, the attack they might want to face is one through the desert to Lanchow. It seems the best defense for China in such an attack is to go after the lengthy and exposed lines of communication linking units attacking Lanchow and sources of supply far away. Indeed, a Japanese attack on Lanchow basically turns Japanese units into cousins of Chinese units: they will face a major concern about supply and will lack the benefits of mobility. And if these Japanese units give up the attack, it's a long walk back to the RR.

Second, China must use extreme economy in its use of ground units as moving many units to defend in one location weakens it elsewhere. While some Japanese attacks might require massive responses, say where a Japanese breakthrough is threatened at a key location, China must generally develop defensive strategies that make the optimal use of units that are close to the attack. True, sometimes units might have to be brought in from some distance, but the preferred Chinese solution is to throw as few units at a problem as possible. It seems the preferred solution is to get as much advanced notice of any Japanese offensive (by sending out trip-wire units and by closely reading the tea leaves, that is intel and combat reports) which would allow local reserves to have time to get where they need to be. The preferred defensive solution must also be premised, where possible, on going after Japanese communications. After all, a small unit sitting on the road supplying Japanese units, which helps degrade Japanese firepower, might be worth 3 times what it would be worth actually on the field of battle.

I'm just thinking out loud here just to see if any ideas I have, of a general perspective about China, hold water. I really know nothing about such matters. My goal is to find a strategy/set of tactics that allows China to hold out for one or two months longer than otherwise would be the case.

[SqzMyLemon]

Having experience playing Japan in two games now, I've never had a problem taking Lanchow. The problem for China is not how to defend Lanchow, but more a matter of what are you willing to lose doing so. Lanchow usually is a target after Sian falls, or as you mention vulnerable to a long march by Japanese forces via the desert. The threat is once Lanchow falls, if your forces retreat west they are essentially out of the fight for good due to the lack of supply.

I think the key to defending China is not to focus on Japan's capability or make assumptions on how supply will limit the advance. Japan can advance easily in China and supply most times is not the limiting factor. Plan accordingly. China is all about delay and get into 3x defensive terrain as soon as possible, conserve your supply and just try to hang on as long as possible. Q-Ball has much game experience and if you follow many of the recent AAR's you can see what an experienced Japanese player can do in China, stacking limits or not.

[GreyJoy]

Also remember to send immediately some units to dig in the northern mountains, near Tienshui.
Don't forget to cover the western rivercrossing that leads to the road from Kunming to Kweiyang
Don't lose supplies building forts in the base-hexes. Instead use that very same supply to build forts in critical points out in the country (always +3 terrain)

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

I figure things out by writing, even if some of what I write below is merely restating what others have written, and so...

I don't have the game in front of me, so this is just impressionistic: the RR from Paotow to Wuchang is Japan's greatest weapon. Japan can concentrate its forces at any number of places along that RR, and put China in the position of having to perhaps move reserves to shore up the attacked location and thereby weakening other points along the line, and then Japan can, if the first attack isn't to its satisfaction, move units to a new point along the line, possibly a newly weakened point, much more rapidly than China can (because of the RR).

Two points, then: First, what people have already alluded to, a move over the long desert trail to Lanchow represents Japan giving up this most powerful weapon, the ability to move quickly by making use of the RR as troops along that trail are far from the RR and far from their own reserves. In fact, from the point of view of China, the attack they might want to face is one through the desert to Lanchow. It seems the best defense for China in such an attack is to go after the lengthy and exposed lines of communication linking units attacking Lanchow and sources of supply far away. Indeed, a Japanese attack on Lanchow basically turns Japanese units into cousins of Chinese units: they will face a major concern about supply and will lack the benefits of mobility. And if these Japanese units give up the attack, it's a long walk back to the RR.

Second, China must use extreme economy in its use of ground units as moving many units to defend in one location weakens it elsewhere. While some Japanese attacks might require massive responses, say where a Japanese breakthrough is threatened at a key location, China must generally develop defensive strategies that make the optimal use of units that are close to the attack. True, sometimes units might have to be brought in from some distance, but the preferred Chinese solution is to throw as few units at a problem as possible. It seems the preferred solution is to get as much advanced notice of any Japanese offensive (by sending out trip-wire units and by closely reading the tea leaves, that is intel and combat reports) which would allow local reserves to have time to get where they need to be. The preferred defensive solution must also be premised, where possible, on going after Japanese communications. After all, a small unit sitting on the road supplying Japanese units, which helps degrade Japanese firepower, might be worth 3 times what it would be worth actually on the field of battle.

I'm just thinking out loud here just to see if any ideas I have, of a general perspective about China, hold water. I really know nothing about such matters. My goal is to find a strategy/set of tactics that allows China to hold out for one or two months longer than otherwise would be the case.

You are learning very quickly! Your insights on how detection, movement, and decision making interact are spot on! However, your ideas on the impact of supply lines don't really match up with reality in WitP. The game is very forgiving when it comes to LCU supply in large part due to experience in the Pacific theater but the result is that the Chinese experience is fairly different than from real life. In real life small Chinese units could certain disrupt Japanese supply lines which were prone to being overstretched, it's not really the case in this game. Only in very extreme situations will the Japanese struggle to get supply to front line units in China. Your ideas on supply are probably how it should be but the game just doesn't work that way.

[Panjack]

Jury duty + work deadlines don't leave me much time to post today. I'll be back tomorrow!

[Panjack]

As requested, below is part of the planned defenses of part of China.

The yellow lines, with numbers, indicate where the current strong points are planned. For strong point #1 (ST1) I also indicated a bit more the details of how forces are, or will soon be, arrayed. The lowercase t indicates where a tripwire unit will sit. Having this unit will permit units behind it to be in rest mode until an attack occurs at t. Further an attack at t will reveal some information what is coming. And, of course, it will give an extra couple of day's advance notice before at attack on a strong hold, which can only help in defending the strong hold that will come under attack.

The lower case z, behind the lines, indicates where a unit will sit along a supply line. If a moderately strong Japanese units attacks the tripwire unit, then the unit will move into the mountains at the upper case Z. The function of this unit is to threaten the lines of communication of Japanese units if they break through at strong point #1. Notice that a unit at Z can move to cut off the lines of communication for two different Japanese advances. Although Q-Ball might be able to see this unit (who knows what recon he'll up in the mountains or behind the lines) getting rid of it might require him sending lots up units up into the mountains for what might be an expensive foray. So if he sees it, good. If he doesn't see it, better.

I plan similar sorts of defenses near the other strong points, 2-5.

The upper case X indicates where Japanese tanks have been attacking for a number of turns. They finally drove off the Chinese units that sat there. He's been heavily attacking by air the ground units located SW of the X in the town. This is dumped them out of Move into Combat, slowing them down. Every turn I need to put them back on Move. If I had to guess where these tanks might be headed, it would be to strong point 3.

The r's indicate planned locations for reserves. Unfortunately, the distance of strong points 1 and 5 require that I have some reserves be placed (and/or units to stop a breakthrough) where they are not too helpful to support other strong points. My plan is that these reserves might move forward to SP1 and SP5 it needed, or they might just hunker down there to provide a place for a retreat from a breakthrough at SP1 or SP5, or perhaps to march back toward some other place if needed. I have no idea if this plan makes any sense!

Q-ball already hit a tripwire unit before strong point 5. I was thinking of having the strong point another hex back, but given the movement forward of Japan here it is probably best just to leave the units where they are so they don't get attacked while in the process of moving. The attack on the tripwire units was by the 13th division, which is a non-elite Japanese unit. As of now, therefore, I presume this movement toward SP5 is just a probe, but unfortunately because SP5 is so far from sources of help I might have to treat this movement at SP5 more seriously that I otherwise would. I'll pay attention to those tank units at X--hope I don't lose track of them--to see if they move toward ST5.

Feedback, criticisms, and even personal attacks based on my tentative defense plans will be appreciated. Of course, it is an open question as to whether I, in my inexperience, can really do much to delay Q-Ball's advance in China.