Combat odds : explanations needed

[yvesp]

I don't understand how the game computes this combat odds:

Weather is Blizzard.

You see the game count.

I'd count:
* base odds: +4
* city: -1
* factory: -1
* HQ attacking city: +1
* Blizzard: -6
* HQ support: +2
* Winterized units: +4 (unsure for mountain div)
* Fractional odds: +1
Final odds: +4

Also note that the game did not ask for using winterized units.

What do you make of it ?

[yvesp]

Answering part of my own question: attacking bonus are affected by terrain halving etc...

There is one river+forteress hex east: bonus from one winterized + moutain div divided by 4.

There is a river on the other units: bonus from HQ attacking city and 3 winterized units halved.

My new count:
* base odds: +4.05 (precise fractional odd)
* city: -1
* factory: -1
* HQ attacking city: +1/2
* Blizzard: -6
* HQ support: +2
* Winterized units (3): +3/2
* Winterized units (1): +1/4
* Moutain div: +1/8 (?)
* Fractional odds: +1

Anyway, the final result is closed to what the panel shows... but not exactly. I wonder how the rounding is done for partial odds modifications (I'd say the fractional odds should apply, but who knows)

[paulderynck]

It's hard to see the rivers that are being attacked across. I make it 22.25 to 11 which is a DRM of 4.045. (You never round, just truncate everything after the third decimal place in MWiF.) I agree on all the boni, so it looks like a net DRM of zero with a fractional chance of .420 for a DRM of +1.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

All 3 hexsides have rivers. The eastward facing hexside has a fort (new construction). But I do not know which units are attacking across that fort hexside.

Calculating this stuff is really difficult. At this point I trust the program (having delved into the details of many reported bugs on calculating land combat odds).

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Not being asked about using winterized units might still be an issue.