Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

At the moment, its seems to be the norm for the USN to make an early appearance in the north.

I'm a JFB, and there isn't a lot there at the start!

It could distract him, but he does have air HQ's, so you have to weigh up the pros and cons.

Yes those air HQs concern me! I guess each creates a ring of death with a radius of at least 14 hexes (this distance escorts might fly?)

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
If he takes bases to the north of the big industry centers you need fighters and AA to defend. Not so many in Oz. Brisbane fits the bill to bomb Sydney.

If he uses the KB to stand off Sydney and bomb you DO have a navy and you should use it. That includes USN and that doesn't mean throwing your carriers away. A damaged fleet carrier now for him takes it away long enough that your naval OOB is wholly different when it comes back. A hard mission kill is good enough right now.

Get creative. PTs, at-sea mines (deteriorate fast, but they aren't expected), DD 2-3 ship swarms hoping for a torpedo hit, etc. Even if you don't hit you make him eat sorties he can't use on the factories

Maybe the best way to keep him away from Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne is make him busy somewhere that strat bombing doesn't provide VPs. You can risk a LOT if the other side of the coin is 5000 VPs.

Helpful guidance.

Who knows if Q-Ball has any intention of pursuing the Kangaroo Barbecue, but I need to be prepared for it.

I've already moved Oz fighters away from the coastal bases, fearing a surprise BB bombardment visit, particularly as my search failed to discover his carrier raid on Sydney. I've also been building up a couple of inland air bases which will permit most of my fighters and bombers to have a saver haven than provided by Sydney and Brisbane.

I have a couple of CMs already headed to Melbourne but have discovered that my supply of the appropriate mines is almost gone. Unfortunately, the majority of my major ships are not really close to South Oz. I might try to get some back, or maybe I'll just plan on using them elsewhere if a bunch of Japanese carriers come calling in the Sydney area.

I'm thinking my best response might be to flood the South Oz waters with subs. My subs just ain't finding much, and it might make sense just to place them around South Oz and hope (!) Japanese carriers come to them. Who knows, perhaps I can transform the MrKane's Japanese plan, "let’s burn kangaroo land," into the Allied trap, "let slip the Tasmanian (sub) devils of war!" True, these particular Tasmanian (sub) devils are pretty toothless, but it could get interesting if I get enough subs there and Q-Ball does send his carriers visiting. At least it will make me think I've done something. [:)]

[Mike McCreery]

A problem for many players is the inability to just sit back and build up rather than *do* something.

[Cribtop]

"Kangeroo Barbeque." Best description Eevarrr!

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

A problem for many players is the inability to just sit back and build up rather than *do* something.

One thing I've got a bit better at is thinking about the longer run consequences of something rather than grab what looks like a good thing. This is, in part, due to the advice of people here. For instance, I recently had the chance to possibly sink some loaded transports with my carriers, but then Q-Ball would know where my carriers are and it's likely better to keep Q-Ball guessing where my carriers are than to eliminate a few troops who might just end up starving on some island a couple of years down the road. And even if I had sunk the transports, and the island was deemed important to Q-Ball, he'd just send more later to take the island. I'm not certain this was necessarily the best decision in this particular case, but at least I'm taking into consideration the larger picture.

I had a feeling, though, if I had sunk them and then reported this here, someone might have said, "I'm not certain that was really in your best interests." Comments posted here are kinda like having one of those "good angels" on my shoulder tut-tutting when I act on the advice of the bad angel/devil sitting on my other shoulder!

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

"Kangeroo Barbeque." Best description Eevarrr!

Certainly better than "the Walloping of the Wallabies." [:)]

[Panjack]

Edit: Q-Ball and I now have an understanding of the use of 1-ship TFs so ignore the posting (you can't see below) as it's been cut. [:)]

[Panjack]

China update as of January 28, 1942.

The Chinese army is holding well. But with the fall of Rangoon and the advance of the Japanese into Burma the supply situation will get worse and worse. According to Tracker, supply in China peaked a couple of days ago and has fallen slightly the past couple of days.

The map below the dotted lines indicate where Japanese and Chinese troops have met or almost met (but Japan stopped short).

A is where Japan is possibly hoping to muscle its way toward Sian. A big battle occurred here a couple of weeks ago in which Japan lost many vehicles. Since then Japan has constantly bombarded the Chinese troops and, behind those in contact with Chinese troops, are 8 Japanese units on the road. This point has held so far and I'm rotating troops in and out of the front lines.

B is where Japan moved up the road and then, finding lots of Chinese behind a river and unable to flank these troops, turned and moved away. I cut in behind these Japanese troops, reducing, in theory, their supply and now Chinese and Japanese troops face each other at C, but nothing has happened there yet. I kinda regret making this move as the Chinese troops themselves don't have much supply and likely only a trickle of supply can get to them. I can't move these troops up the road to where the Japanese troops have come as Japan owns that hexside, but a Chinese unit at B has been told to move down the road to lay claim to the blocked hexside, allowing a good exit route for the Chinese troops and allowing more supply to get to these Chinese units.

Battles have occurred at D but Japan generally fails to get good results and sometimes comes out worse than the Chinese.

Everywhere Japan is bombarding from the ground and from the air, which is running down Chinese supply further. IF China was able to keep up its supply I think China would be a stalemate. But over the next couple of months Chinese supply will fall and fall and fall and at some point I expect Japan to make some breakthrough by beating up some run down Chinese LCUs. Then the time will come to fall back further and hope the next line holds.

The final Chinese unit has been dislodged from the RR going to Hankow, although I managed to get some units into Hankow itself. These units are holding out pretty well but, of course, their supply is running down in the face of daily Japanese attacks. Once Japan has complete control over this RR they should have an easier time shifting units to take advantage of any perceived, or real!, Chinese weaknesses.

[Panjack]

January 28-30, 1942
----------------------------------------------------------
Burma is now where the action is.

The Good: The AVG pounced on 19 unescorted Sallies over Shwebo and shot down 10 of them. My LCU losses in Burma have been very low, mostly speedbump units intended just to slow down the Japanese advance. Most Allied units in Burma, along with a handful of Chinese, are now walking from Shwebo to the highlands to the north.

The Bad: I’m about to lose the ability to search all the stretch of sea from Singapore through the Strait of Malacca to most of the way to Rangoon. Meden has fallen, Sabang is about to fall, and Port Blair airfield is mostly rubble. These have been my bases for long-range search planes. I’ll soon no longer have good advanced notice of what beasts are slouching towards Rangoon (or India). I do have a bunch of subs in the area and they will give some info (when a TF drives over them) but this isn’t very good info. Right now, I can see TFs moving toward Burma from the Straits of Malacca.

The Ugly (but for who?): a Japanese paradrop took Akyab on January 28. Blenheims and B-17s have been bombing the airfield there since and damage is up to 21. I’ll continue to bomb every day. Oddly enough, this paradrop might work to my benefit: if Akyab had been taken by an amphib invasion, aviation support could have been included and fighters could have been CAPing over Akyab’s 3-level airfield possibly the next day. But with the paradrop, and the need to transport in supplies and aviation support, I hope to be able to bomb the airfield for a bit before fighters can hit my bombers. We’ll see how this works out.

The tea leaves are still not speaking with a clear voice. But I’ve had reports of various LCUs moving to Singapore (which is in Japanese hands):
15/Southern Army is loaded on a Aden Cargo class xAK moving to Singapore.
2/2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion is loaded on a Toho Cargo class xAK moving to Singapore.

Is this possibly consistent with an invasion of India?

[Panjack]

February 2, 1941
----------------

Good day for the Allies at sea. For a couple of turns I've been tracking 3 Japanese transport TFs moving up towards Burma. I set up 3 surface TFs to intercept the 3 Japanese TFs, setting them up to attack on the same day. The goal was to hit the 3 transport TFs and then run away before significant Japanese air units could be set to naval attack. One intercept missed as one of my TF hit the wrong J TF, but two worked:

#1 Night Time Surface Combat, near Phuket at 48,67, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Bisan Maru #3, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
PB Choun Maru #18, Shell hits 2
xAK Hakonesan Maru, Shell hits 22, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Tihuku Maru, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Rasin Maru, Shell hits 19, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Hobart
CL Glasgow
DD Piet Hein
DD Kortenaer

Japanese ground losses:
1574 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 47 destroyed, 32 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 17 (10 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (6 destroyed, 2 disabled)


#2 Day Time Surface Combat, near Tavoy at 51,59, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Ryuyo Maru, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
xAK Yamabuki Maru, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Hakusika Maru, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
xAK Teisen Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
PB Kiko Maru, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
PB Kaisho Maru, Shell hits 7, and is sunk

Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Shell hits 1
CL Colombo
DD Banckert
DD Tenedos

Japanese ground losses:
1170 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 99 destroyed, 64 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 62 (31 destroyed, 31 disabled)

UNFORTUNATELY, on the same day of the attacks a Japanese Carrier TF appeared in the area and sunk a couple of small ships just minding their own business. Only 15 Vals were involved, but my very poor air search "saw" 6 CVs (with 217 bombers) along with some tankers. Hard to take this at face value, but I have to assume at this point this is the KB.

At least one of my surface TF is a high risk. I was planning to have it exit to the west, avoiding any land-based torpedo bombers, but now it will have to run away going north exposing it to attacks from the land and to possible attacks from the carriers. My other two surface TFs were also going to run away to the west but they too need to head more north to avoid the possible big Japanese carrier group.

Tomorrow could be a bad day for the Allies.

[JocMeister]

Fingers crossed... [:)]

[Cribtop]

Long term, beware becoming trapped in the Bay of Bengal if you get out of the immediate jam. Also, if the targets attacked yesterday were small fry, I've seen even massive carrier TFs launch small 15ish plane strikes against such little targets. Thus, you are correct to assume this is the whole enchilada. Finally, if this really is KB, he might indeed be coming for India. Or not.

[BBfanboy]

He will be expecting you to run away N or NW. Have you considered running straight through the current location of the KB? Should dodge him as he will be running full speed NE and you might even intercept.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Fingers crossed... [:)]

Thanks!

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Long term, beware becoming trapped in the Bay of Bengal if you get out of the immediate jam. Also, if the targets attacked yesterday were small fry, I've seen even massive carrier TFs launch small 15ish plane strikes against such little targets. Thus, you are correct to assume this is the whole enchilada. Finally, if this really is KB, he might indeed be coming for India. Or not.

Thanks for your insight. If it is the KB, there’s no real reason for it to be there but to smash a bunch of stuff before troops land. I do know that lots of LCUs have been transported to Singapore and last turn I got:
4/18th Division is loaded on xAP Manzyu Maru at Singapore (50,84).
6/18th Division is loaded on xAK Nitiran Maru at Singapore (50,84).

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
He will be expecting you to run away N or NW. Have you considered running straight through the current location of the KB? Should dodge him as he will be running full speed NE and you might even intercept.

Sound exciting…and likely the move that gives my ships (2 CL and 2 DD) the best chance for survival. I like it. I know he might actually move N hoping to trap all my various TFs in the Bay of Bengal (as Cribtop mentions is a possibility) in which case the TF might get chewed up, but I’m guessing he’ll go for what looks like a tasty treat by going to the NE instead.

[Panjack]

February 3, 1941
------------------

Good news: as suggested by BBfanboy, the most at-risk surface combat TF ran right at what is likely the KB and passed right through it into what looks like safe waters. If the TF had run NE it would now be trapped in the Bay of Bengal.

Bad News: as Q-Ball is a skilled player, he moved the KB (?) directly north threatening a host of TFs now fleeing the Bay of Bengal. Unfortunately, the surface combat TFs don't have enough fuel to go at full speed and they might be run down by the carrier(s). A bunch of xAKs are able to move a full speed but they too might be run down by the Japanese carriers. Even further north (off of map below) are a number of smaller TFs filled with smaller ships that have no chance of getting out the the BoB and so they are dispersing to smaller ports hoping to escape detection by Japanese search planes. Although it doesn't look pretty, and I expect ship losses in the next turn or two, Cribtop's warning about the Bay of Bengal got me moving some ships sooner than I otherwise would have and so my losses might be a bit smaller than otherwise.

I'll be moving aircraft away from coastal bases so they don't get crunched by the likely KB airbase attacks. Perhaps the only good I might get out of this is that the bases the KB attacks are the most likely focus for an (imminent?) Indian invasion.

It is amazing how little the Allied player (or one like me!) can do when the KB comes calling. (And now I see the Bay of Bengal can be a death trap.) I even had a fairly good warning because of search planes located at Port Blair and on parts of Sumatra. They were, however, mostly focused on trying to locate the TFs I intercepted and I didn't have enough looking for the KB sneaking around Sumatra. Rookie mistake! With another day's warning I likely would have been able to have my ships skedaddle out of the Bay of Bengal safely. I'm soon to lose these bases where search planes are located, and then will only get advanced warnings of Japanese movements toward India if Japanese ships stomp on my subs.

[Cribtop]

Subs can detect carriers even they don't get sailed over. Watch for a sub in the deep ocean to suddenly go to 10/10 detection levels from CV search planes.

[BBfanboy]

Even KB can't hit thirty targets at once. Since the player does not get to choose specific targets for specific squadrons, you might try sending all the low value xAKs toward KB, split into numerous two-ship TFs and eat up his strikes.
Having him expend ~ 60 air ops points per ship on low-value stuff reduces his points available for the rest of his foray.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Subs can detect carriers even they don't get sailed over. Watch for a sub in the deep ocean to suddenly go to 10/10 detection levels from CV search planes.

So much (poor) info. So little time. And so inexperienced!

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Even KB can't hit thirty targets at once. Since the player does not get to choose specific targets for specific squadrons, you might try sending all the low value xAKs toward KB, split into numerous two-ship TFs and eat up his strikes.
Having him expend ~ 60 air ops points per ship on low-value stuff reduces his points available for the rest of his foray.

I've yet to figure out the extent to which I want to do things like that. My inclination is to do some of these things but not to push it too far.

This is consistent with what Q-Ball is doing, for instance:
fb.asp?m=3704173

But, certainly having Japan land in Darwin on January 19, 1942 is "unrealistic" and so too is Japan knowing exactly what units (and AVs) are where on the first day of the war (so they can send just the right number of units to take a location) is also "unrealistic." So I guess breaking up larger xAK TFs into a number of smaller ones when faced with an unrealistically powerful mega-carrier TF isn't necessarily any more unrealistic. But I can see pushing this too far might be aggravating to some players faced with such things. And, down the road I'll be the one wielding massive carrier groups!

I'll raise the issue with Q-Ball next turn.

But, gentlemen, thanks again for your ideas.

[BBfanboy]

Scattering a convoy was used IRL when an overwhelming threat was imminent. It was used against Adm. Scheer and vs Scharnhorst and Gneisenau when they found juicy convoys toward dusk. They smashed the escorting AMCs and got a few ships, but quite a few more survived.
Look up AMCs Jervis Bay and Rawalpindi.
This is quite different from posting a couple of merchant ship pickets - you already know where KB is and you are just running for the fogbanks.
Even the AI does this when a powerful force intercepts a convoy - "Sir Robin disperses the convoy and retreats" or something similar.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Scattering a convoy was used IRL when an overwhelming threat was imminent....

You make good points. I'll likely make use of this scattering, then.