Better late than never (Lowpe (J) vs tiemanj (A))

[tiemanjw]

6/4/1943

Operation Post Master, D+1 & D+2 Sitrep

Landings on Nauru are complete. The 2nd Marine Division supported by the 1st & 3rd USMC Tank Bns overwhelmed the defenders at the beach. The small airfield was taken on the first day after a fierce fight. Most units were wiped out by attrition after this first day (including the Yokosuka 2nd SNLF - the previously unidentified unit). Elements of the 1st Base Force withdrew into the interior of the island to set up a last ditch defense. They attempted their own shock attack (Banzi!) the following day and were wiped out.

Fighters were flown to the air strip immediately after its capture to protect the forces still unloading supplies. The 2 CVEs covering the invasion have joined the CV Support TF to the north. The extra 60 fighters will come in handy if he attacks. So far though, everything is quiet.

Engineers and support squads are now unloading on Nauru. Once sufficient supplies are unloaded, I'll load the marines back on to their transports and pull them back to the Gilberts. A marine defense Bn will take over garrison duties so that the shock troops can rest and recover next to HQ units at Tarawa. I started prepping them for Ponape in case they are needed for that assault.

So this closes the book on Post Master. A short burst of combat power. Baring some surprise during consolidation, I'll resume reporting on other theaters.

[tiemanjw]

sometimes, you just want to kiss a bubblehead.

[BBfanboy]

From a US sub yet! Make a sacrifice to Lady Luck today!

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

From a US sub yet! Make a sacrifice to Lady Luck today!

I wasn't that lucky... 6 fish fired, and the "HIT... No explosion" message was there for a looong time before the one boom. Oh, what could have been. Still, a case of Johnny Walker will be waiting for him at Midway.

In other news, a lucky CA (I don't remember which one) hit the mine field I laid at Kausie to cover the Nauru invasion.

Both of these events will help with the upcoming Ponape invasion. Just waiting on Essex and Corregador (sp?) to arrive. Essex should reach Palmyra today, Corregador is halfway between Pearl and the Gilberts. Details to follow.

[BBfanboy]

[:D] I hear you about the UXT (unexploding torpedoes). The length of the delay before the boom tells you how many hit but did not explode.
Just divide the time interval by the setting you have for message delay time. In my game I think I had 9 dud US torpedo hits on Shokaku on five separate occasions before Dutch subs took care of the problem.

[tiemanjw]

6/11/1943

Marshall Islands

Due to the recent sighting (and torpedoing) of Akagi off the home islands, I'm racing my preps for the Ponape invasion as quickly as I can. The 2 pieces I still need are Essex (about 4-5 days out) and Corregidor (about 2-3 days out). Once they arrive, I'll load up my transports and its on. In the last few days, he has moved another 2 unidentified units bring his troop total up to an estimated 16k (with 200 guns). Identified resistance includes 87th Naval Guard unit and the Ponape Naval Fortress. There is also a bunch of base forces and construction companies at the island.
From my side, I currently have the following units fully prepped:
1st Marine Division
1st USMC Tank Bn
766th Tank Bn
767th Tank Bn
34th Combat Eng Reg
2 additional tank Bns and 2 Marine Regiments are prepared between 30-40%, and will be used as follow on forces.

That is the rough plan. I'm strongly considering canceling this invasion. On one hand, if I wait and invade later, it gives him time to strengthen his forces. Plus, Akagi is down for a month, maybe 3. On the other hand, Ponape is as far as I can go in the near term. Afterwards, I need to rest my Marines, and send most of my fleet back to Pearl and the west coast for upgrades and to fix a few months’ worth of accumulated damage. If I take Ponape, it threatens to cut off the Solomon’s, without actually cutting them off. This will allow (and perhaps encourage) him to withdraw these troops to someplace that actually matters... and I would be powerless to stop it. Ponape doesn't provide me with anything, other than a base from which I can neutralize Truk. But if I do that, he will just move to the Marianas or Palau’s.

With or without Ponape, I'm at a strategic cross roads here, and I don't know what to attack next. As I see it, I have 3 options:
1) I can continue west, and go for the northern Solomon’s - namely Manus, Kavieng, Hollandia, and (if he is not too strong) Rabaul. This would provide several nice bases / port facilities while still cutting off anything in the southern Solomon's.
2) I can turn north, and go for the crown jewel of the western Pacific - the Marianas. Right now, these islands appear to be lightly defended. Recent intel shows only a few base units defending these vital islands. And if I take them, I get bases that will cut largely cut off all of SOPAC and provide a launching point for further offensive operations in the Pacific.
3) I can do something completely different, and go for Java. This one is complicated, due to the logistics. I would need to grab at least a few bases in northern Oz back first to provide an air bridge. Plus, all supplies and loading would need to stage out of Perth or one of the nearby southwestern Oz bases. On the plus side, it will provide an opportunity to get my 3 Aussie divisions (6th, 7th, 9th) plus armor involved and can deny him a good chunk of the SRA (or at least using it). He also appears to be weak in Java, having stripped everything to send to Burma (and 1 div to the Pacific).

I'm leaning toward cancelling Ponape and preparing for option (2), sometime in the Sept - Oct time frame. That will give me 2 more big decks, plus 3 small ones, and allow me to upgrade my fleet and prepare my ground troops.

I'd like to hear some opinions on this. I don't have a good feel for what kind of capabilities the Japanese have at this time... specifically, how many of his CVs he could have accelerated that could be available in this time frame.


Burma
I pushed north along the western bank of the Irrawaddy river with 1 division plus about 2 divisions of tanks. Originally, these were going to link up with another 2 divisions on the coast road to trap and destroy 2 divisions he had there. But he pulled out and moved those divisions south before I could trap them. Now, these forces have combined, and are going to push him out of the central basin. He appears to be in full Sir Robin mode, retreating to the jungles. 2 units remain in Magwe and 1 in Meiktila (all appear to be small) are running to Taung Gyi. 3 apparently small units are running from Mandalay to Lashio. This suits me just fine. Supply during the monsoon is a pain in the ^$%, so taking the central basin without a fight would be nice. From here I can build up my supply stocks, gain control of the north/south roads leading to Rangoon and Pegu, and prepare for an offensive in the fall after the monsoon.

The air war over Burma has been red hot for the past few weeks. I tried to slow his retreating divisions down, and he attempted to protect them with his fighters. Every day sweeps from F4s attacked his fighters in the air and my bombers hit his retreating troops. But I couldn't slow him down enough to prevent him from getting across the river and onto the main road before my advancing troops could get there. So in the end, he got away, but at a high cost in fighters, and I presume pilots. Since May 29th, the air loss VP totals are 572 Japanese to 391 allied.

[BBfanboy]

Be sure to check out the quality of the pilots and commanders on the new CV/CVL air groups. You may need to wait a few days while you swap out the dogs and bring in the skilled pilots.
It can take some time for the new pilots to reach your carriers. It is better if they are sitting in a US port than meandering about the Pacific Ocean.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Be sure to check out the quality of the pilots and commanders on the new CV/CVL air groups. You may need to wait a few days while you swap out the dogs and bring in the skilled pilots.
It can take some time for the new pilots to reach your carriers. It is better if they are sitting in a US port than meandering about the Pacific Ocean.

I plan to stop at Tabiteuea specifically to swap pilots. Right now, there is a bunch of trainees on Essex. Corregidor's CVW has decent experience, but the skill set is wanting - so they either need to be swapped out or [more likely] relegated to escort duty.
I don't understand your statement about it taking a few days to swap out the pilots though. When I hit the "get new pilots" button, the squadron fills up right away. Setting the filler to "Rookie 60+" or "experienced 70+" ensures I get good pilots. As for leaders... they are acceptable (but little more - except Essex VF leader is good). That said, I don't really have many "good" leaders left - at least none I'd waste on a 21 A/C CVE group.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Be sure to check out the quality of the pilots and commanders on the new CV/CVL air groups. You may need to wait a few days while you swap out the dogs and bring in the skilled pilots.
It can take some time for the new pilots to reach your carriers. It is better if they are sitting in a US port than meandering about the Pacific Ocean.

I plan to stop at Tabiteuea specifically to swap pilots. Right now, there is a bunch of trainees on Essex. Corregidor's CVW has decent experience, but the skill set is wanting - so they either need to be swapped out or [more likely] relegated to escort duty.
I don't understand your statement about it taking a few days to swap out the pilots though. When I hit the "get new pilots" button, the squadron fills up right away. Setting the filler to "Rookie 60+" or "experienced 70+" ensures I get good pilots. As for leaders... they are acceptable (but little more - except Essex VF leader is good). That said, I don't really have many "good" leaders left - at least none I'd waste on a 21 A/C CVE group.

The names of the pilots appear right away in your squadron list, but look over on the right at the "delay" column. If the number there is greater than one, that is the number of game days before the pilot can be activated.

[ny59giants]

Pilots - It takes a few days for those pilots you get from "Veterans" button. I think that was the point BB Fanboy was making.

Ponape - I would go forward "IF" you have sufficient warships (CL/CA/BB) to be able to bombard the base. Keep one or two SC TF with 8 Fletchers each and either your Cleveland CLs (3 or 4) or newer fast BBs (28 knots - 2 to 3) to cover your Amphib TF from his SC TF. You will need 2 to 4 BB TF (bombardment) to cause high disruption levels. I've had just BB TF made from 8 Fletchers and 4 Cleveland Class CLs close down an AF and cause over 400 casualties each. Remember, disruption is your friend when invading.[:D] Make sure you get high DL before invading here to ensure good results.

For me, pre-WW2 class DDs stay with CVs while my Fletchers go with my best warships. IMO, you should start to look for battle with Japan about now.

CVEs - Where possible, I make many of my early war CVEs just a fighter decks. Re-size where you can and fill out to max with just Hellcats.

I'm now in mid-June '44 and my 'floating Death Star' is getting nasty. [8D] I would recommend when the time comes to put your 2nd gen Corsairs on your best heavy CVs to act as pure CAP.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

5/2/1943
Pilot Training, part 1
For a little while now, I've been proud of my USA pilot training program. Of course, I have no real idea how many I need - it just seemed like I had a lot (around 1300), with good experience - 46 80+, a few hundred 70+, about 3/4 60+). But is that enough for the coming years?

So I went through and counted the number of A/C I will get from here on out. Since army fighter A/C production changes over nearly entirely in the summer of '43 - I added up all the A/C I would get from these production runs. The total number is about 10,500. In addition, I wanted to know what my "casualty rate" has been. Casualty rate is the % change a pilot is KIA, WIA, or MIA once his A/C is lost. Losses include Air, Flak, and Ops losses (ground losses have been excluded). To date I have lost 1385 USA fighters, and 273 USA pilots. For a [seemingly low] causality rate of just under 20%. This seems a little low to me - perhaps it is due to the fact that my USA pilots, until now, have been flying mostly CAP missions close to friendly bases. I assume this rate will go up as I go on the offensive, so for figuring out the number of pilots I will need, I'll assume my rate goes up to 40% (in line with USN and USMC numbers).

So I will get 10,500 A/C over the next 3 years. For planning purposes, let’s assume that I will use all of these A/C (either they get lost or they replace losses and at the end of the war I have 0 A/C in my pools). To make the math simple, I will just apply the causality rate of 40% to that number, and assume I need 4200 pilots to fly these A/C.

Now, it appears to me (subjectively - more on this later) that it takes about 5 months to get pilots through my training syllabus (4 months to get to about 50 exp, 70 air, 60+ def and 1 month of rear area CAP missions to get exp to 60). Further, I can have about 125% pilots to A/C ratio in these squadrons. So my training rate is 4 A/C can train 5 pilots in 5 months. Or 1 A/C can train .25 pilots in 1 month. I estimate I have 36 months left until the summer of '46 (again to make the math easier). This comes out to needing 465 A/C to train 4200 pilots in 36 months. This is the good news - I have just a bit shy of 400 A/C doing training right now. If I add in the restricted A-36 squadrons I am just now getting (I'll change them to P40Ks as newer models start coming off the line in July) I'll be up to the target number.

I know this isn't a thorough analysis - a true bean counter can pick this apart with ease. But it is a starting point to gauge pilot production.

Now, the USA appears to be ok. The USN is dreadfully behind. The USN will get 15,500 fighters over the next 3 years. Considering that both USN and USMC draw from the same pools, I will add their pilots together. With an expected (and currently observed) causality rate of 40%, I will need 6200 pilots - and 688 A/C training pilots. The USMC is doing their part - with about 200 A/C training pilots. The USN though only has about 100 producing pilots. I really need to boost this number by about 300 or so. I found about 150 (Seagulls) training patrol and recon pilots that I can afford to switch over to "sweep" training. That should be a good start, but I really need to find a few squadrons I can pull off the lines and start training pilots.



Now as to the question, how quickly can you train a pilot? I said I used 5 months, but that is just a SWAG. And can I do things to make this go quicker? I don't know. So I looked to San Francisco. I have 6 training groups there. I decided to set each up differently, and see who trains the quickest:

328/444th FS
My control squadron. This squadron is led by career officer COL McDaniel. COL McDaniel doesn't have much skill or experience either flying A/C or leading men. He got the job because there was no place else to put him (he was the default leader for this squadron). This leaders / groups ratings:
48 LDR
52 Insp
36 Air
49 Admin
56 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
26 Avg Defense

328/326th FS
Experiment 1. MAJ Cullen has been brought back from the front after his 11th kill. He has 81 Exp and 70 Air skill. He wants to just return to the front, but has been told the war effort needs him to train 100 MAJ Cullens before he can return. He rises to the challenge, and has put his full energies into the work. As it turns out he is an excellent instructor as well as motivator. He hopes to use this gig to catapult him into command of a combat squadron.
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
64 Admin
45 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
27 Avg Air
26 Avg Def

328/327th FS
Experiment 2. 1LT Holt, a former wingman of MAJ Cullen, has also been brought back to train new pilots. The Army wants to know though, do 5 Aces make for quicker instruction than 1? 1LT Holt's leader ratings are very close to MAJ Cullen, but he has the luxury of having 4 additional instructors with experience over 80 helping him. This squadron's instructors have combined for 55 kills in 900 missions over Burma. Will this translate into faster recruit production? Time will tell. (Note this group has higher average values because these 5 instructors are affecting the averages)
78 LDR
88 Insp
50 Air
47 Admin
49 Aggr

33 Avg Exp
31 Avg Air
31 Avg Def

328/329th FS
Experiment 3. LTC Donohew has a solid rep as a leader. His skills are well balanced. However, he has little experience to date - fighting the war from Washington so far. He has lobbied to get a combat billet, but instead has been given a training squadron in the states. Like MAJ Cullen, he hopes to get a combat command someday. Unlike the rest of the instructors so far, LTC Donohew has no flying experience, and does not fly. He is an administrative leader only.
64 LDR
66 Insp
65 Air
58 Admin
61 Aggr

25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
25 Avg Def

329/330th
Experiment 4. All of the other squadrons have a full TO&E of 25 P39s. This group (and the next) have only 12 of 25 A/C - all aging P38Es. This group is led by the LTC Morrissey. He is a career officer, not unlike COL McDaniel. Despite his lack of airframes for training, he has been given access to classrooms and Link Trainers. Washington expects him to produce. I do not. Time will tell.
49 LDR
44 Insp
43 Air
42 Admin
49 Aggr

26 Avg Exp
26 Avg Air
24 Avg Def

329/332nd
Experiment 5. This squadron is the same as the 329/330th, except it has an experienced combat pilot as its leader. 1LT Degraffenreid has 7 kills in 307 missions over Burma before being sent back to the states as a flight instructor. He leads a group of trainees with only 12 airframes to train them with.
78 LDR
78 Insp
45 Air
68 Admin
37 Aggr

25 Avg Exp
25 Avg Air
24 Avg Def


I'll be checking in on these groups from time to time over the next few months and report back what happens.

6/17/1943

Pilot Training Experiment, 1 1/2 months in

Those of you actually reading my musings may remember that back at the beginning of May, I filled out 6 training squadrons with freshly drawn in replacements. The leaders of each squadron were picked to see what leaders qualities were most desired for your training wings, and if it even made a difference (and was thus worth the PP expense and opportunity cost to have good leaders training your replacements instead of on the front lines).

Following is the results after about a month and a half of training:

328/326th FS (Maj Cullen)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 27 26 78 88 50 64 45 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 38 64 50 78 88 50 64 45
Diff 12 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s


328/327th FS (1LT Haywood)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 33 31 31 78 88 50 47 49 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 44 66 54 78 88 50 47 49 4 additional high exp pilots
Diff 11 35 23 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s


328/329th FS (LTC Donohew)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 25 25 25 64 66 65 58 61 good, well balanced leader
6/17 37 63 49 64 66 65 58 61
Diff 12 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s


328/444th FS (COL McDaniel)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 25 25 48 52 36 49 56 stock leader (no PP to change)
6/17 37 64 50 48 52 36 49 56
Diff 11 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s


329/330th FS (LTC Morrissey)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 26 26 24 49 44 43 42 49 stock leader (no PP to change)
6/17 35 57 43 49 44 43 42 49
Diff 9 31 19 0 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es


329/332nd FS (1LT Degraffenreid)
date Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr notes
5/2 25 25 24 78 78 45 68 37 high leadership, high exp pilot for leader
6/17 34 56 42 79 78 45 68 37
Diff 9 31 18 1 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es


*******************************************************************

Or, to better illustrate the different gains, here is a table of the gains listed by squadron

Avg exp Avg air Avg def ldrshp insp air admin aggr
328/326th 12 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/327th 11 35 23 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/329th 12 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
328/444th 11 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 25/25 P39s
329/330th 9 31 19 0 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es
329/332nd 9 31 18 1 0 0 0 0 12/25 P38Es

*******************************************************************

So, after 1.5 months, it is hard to see a difference for leadership. The only thing that appears to matter is the airframes / trainee ratio.

For the 4 groups with 25/25 A/C: they all gained about 12 exp, upper 30s in air and mid 20s in def. They all have an Avg exp of 37-38 (except the 327th whose averages are skewed by the 4 aces added to see if it made a difference - if I take those 4 out of the average, I get 38 Avg exp). They all have about 64 air and 50 def. Good leadership qualities, good additional pilot instructors have made no notable difference to date.
The only notable difference is to compare the 4 groups with 25/25 A/C to the 2 with 12/25 A/C (note all squadrons are maxed out to 33 pilots). The 2 shorthanded squadrons both gained 9 exp, 31 air and 18-19 def for totals of 34-35 exp, 56-57 air, 42-43 def. This is about 3 less exp, 7 less air, and 5 less def compared to the squadrons at full TO&E.

Further, it seems that my second hope - some promising leaders with a hole in their leadership stats could get seasoned up as leaders before being sent to the front. The only gain in leadership stats for the group was a 1 point bump in leadership for 1LT Degraffenreid - who already had an excellent leadership rating. The anemic air and aggr ratings for Cullen, Haywood, and Degraffenreid were all unaffected.

These are preliminary results. I will finish the experiment to see if differences start to show up as the pilots approach graduation. Typically, with my training classes, I wait until the primary skill (air in this case) is near 70 and switch to training a secondary skill (100' sweep in the case of most fighter pilots). The whole class stays together until most have an exp of 50+.

edit: wow! those tables really come out awful. Here is a screen shot of an excel sheet.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Pilots - It takes a few days for those pilots you get from "Veterans" button. I think that was the point BB Fanboy was making.

Ponape - I would go forward "IF" you have sufficient warships (CL/CA/BB) to be able to bombard the base. Keep one or two SC TF with 8 Fletchers each and either your Cleveland CLs (3 or 4) or newer fast BBs (28 knots - 2 to 3) to cover your Amphib TF from his SC TF. You will need 2 to 4 BB TF (bombardment) to cause high disruption levels. I've had just BB TF made from 8 Fletchers and 4 Cleveland Class CLs close down an AF and cause over 400 casualties each. Remember, disruption is your friend when invading.[:D] Make sure you get high DL before invading here to ensure good results.

For me, pre-WW2 class DDs stay with CVs while my Fletchers go with my best warships. IMO, you should start to look for battle with Japan about now.

CVEs - Where possible, I make many of my early war CVEs just a fighter decks. Re-size where you can and fill out to max with just Hellcats.

I'm now in mid-June '44 and my 'floating Death Star' is getting nasty. [8D] I would recommend when the time comes to put your 2nd gen Corsairs on your best heavy CVs to act as pure CAP.

Thanks... I'm going to attempt to raid Truk and Ponape with my CV / CVE groups (respectively). If I can get 1 day out without being seen, I'm going to pound him. He now has 50+ ships (a lot of tenders show up when I mouse over) at Truk, and Ponape has the bulk of his air power. If this is successful, I'll saddle up the Ponape invasion and go for it. I think I have enough warships (5 fast BB, 3 slow BB, 11 CA, 11 CL, 54+ DDs). I could always use more though.

Interesting about using the prewar DDs with the CVs. I usually keep about half Fletchers and half Benson's around my CVs, and older DDs (with 1 or 2 Fletchers) around my CVEs. I keep hearing about the unstoppable Fletchers, but so far, I haven't had a chance to see it. I'll reexamine my CVBG composition, and see if I have enough Bensons to go around.

I have been hoping to engage his CVs for a short while now - so long as it happens under my land based search umbrella and where I can mass my CVEs with my CVs. I don't yet have enough deck space to devote bombers to search. Another 2 months brings in 2 CVs and 3 CVLs, which will be enough to start venturing out a bit more.

CVEs - yup... mostly just a big ball of fighers in the ocean. I have a few of the 9 A/C TB squadrons to form a small strike, but it is mostly fighers. For the Ponape strike package the CVEs have 255 VF (or VMF) and 44 VTs.

[tiemanjw]

6/18/1943

CENTPAC

I have decided on a course of action. The Ponape invasion is on hold... for now I'm going to use a large CV raid to reduce his air strength in the area of Ponape and the northern Solomon’s. I was hoping to hit the anchorage at Truk, with 40 ships now - a lot of which are the tenders of some sort or another. But my CVs now have a DL of 3 and I don't want to split forces with him on alert. He may also empty the port at Truk, making this a high risk, low reward scenario. Further, the Massachusetts along with 4 DDs must have become bored or something and decided to run up their ops points to 250, so I wouldn't be able to make it to Truk this turn if I tried. (I don't know why they did this... perhaps fueling, but the DDs were in different TFs than the Massachusetts. I also had all TFs on "Do Not Refuel". oh well)

So I split off Massachusetts along with the 4 DDs and sent them to mark time near Nauru (where they can get air cover). The CVs will now head up to hit the Ponape AF. It is size 4 (200 A/C), with about 90 fighters, 95 bombers (Vals have been spotted by subs), and 6 aux (search?). At nearby bases he has:
Truk - 30 fighters, 60 bombers
Eniwetok - 40 fighters, 3 aux
Kavieng - 30 fighters
Rabaul - 15 fighters, 30+ aux
Shortlands - 9 fighters, 4 bombers, 20+ aux
Munda - 10 aux
Lunga - 100 fighters, 12 bombers, 14 aux
Tulagi - 6 aux

My CVs and CVEs will stay together for this operation. This gives me total strength of 488 fighters and 224 bombers. For this operation, the top bomber pilots have been replaced with fully trained, but lower experienced pilots. If a naval action appears to be imminent, I can swap out the airwings with some still based in the Gilberts with top pilots ready to go.

For the first phase of the operation, the CVs will approach Ponape from the south, getting to a range of 3 hexes to launch strikes. The strikes will be multiple high altitude sweeps, followed by bombing the airfield. A few squadrons of dive bombers and torpedo bombers will be held in reserve to strike any naval units spotted.
Due to the ranges involved (12 from Truk, 17 from Kavieng, 18 to Rabaul), it will be hard for him to launch a coordinated counter attack. A6M5bs can reach from Truk, but it is at the absolute maximum of their range. He could also move strike units into Kusaie - but he has been reluctant to do that recently due to it being in strike range. At any rate, it is also a size 4 AF, and could potentially be used to stage a strike.
To deal with these threats, I have kept about 250 fighters (along with the best pilots) on CAP over my TF. Hopefully it is enough.

After Ponape is hit, I will shift to the Solomon’s. The primary targets being his large number of float and search A/C [currently] at Rabaul, Shortlands, and later Lunga.

If this offensive is successful, and the intel picture doesn't revel something big, I'll proceed to the next phase. Seize Ontong Java with a small USMC force (it is currently a dot base - the 3rd Indpt SNLF was observed there (sigint) on 2/18/43) and some engineers. A small AF here will be a big thorn in the side of the Solomon’s from Lunga up to Shortlands. Any evacuations would have to happen under threat of air attack. It will also hopefully draw his attention to the Solomon’s, just as an attack further north unfolded.


Burma

I attempted another supply run into Rangoon. The convoy arrived just fine and unloaded about 40k supply... then Tone and friends decided to pay a visit. I'm trying to learn from my last attempt at this, and placed a SAG consisting of 1 CA, 2 CLs and a handful of DDs in the entrance to the river, along with stepping up nav search (especially night nav search). It didn't matter. He brought 3 CAs. My SAG gave a good fight, but ended in a draw (neither side losing anything), then his CAs just moved up to Rangoon as if they didn't even care. They blasted the lightly escorted convoy as it was finishing its unloading. The only consolidation is that all of those ships were disposable xAKs and 1 old Dutch CL. On the way out, the CAs tangled with my SAG again, this time causing enough damage to DD Meredith that she sunk later in the turn. I damaged a few of his ships, but nothing that will take more than a week or 2 to repair.

While all this action was occurring, Norman Scott was racing down with 3 CAs of his own. He didn't quite make it in time, and DDs Eaton and Drayton took turns taking out their frustrations on I-175. Afterwards (the next day), he bombarded Moulmein causing good damage to the airfield... but the fighters had already left.

After the naval actions, my naval attack planes fly. He was smart though... they retreated to Moulmein and put 200 fighters there. So my Vengeance and Beauforts got slaughtered (along with about 40 escorting P40s). At least a Beaufort got a fish into Aoba. I guess it is a consolation prize I'll have to be happy with. The other not so bad side is that all of these airframes are about as disposable as airframes can be for the allies at this time. Pilot losses were lighter than I would have expected - I was able to reform half of the groups with replacement A/C and consolidating the pilots.

And as if this wasn't bad enough, 3 days later he decides to build on the success of the Mogami class minesweeper introduced at Kusaie. He now introduced the Tone class minesweeper at Victoria Point. The combat report for this was interesting:

TF 74 encounters mine field at Victoria Point (51,66) (231 at 6.4 {256.1 nm} from Bangkok)
Japanese Ships (DD Uranami, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage)

TF 65 encounters mine field at Victoria Point (51,66) (231 at 6.4 {256.1 nm} from Bangkok)
3 mines cleared
Japanese Ships (DD Kasumi
DD Niizuki
CA Tone, Mine hits 1)

I'm sadistically picturing Tone, in response to Uranami sinking, angrily ramming into a mine, with the resulting shock wave freeing up 3 others which were then shot up by the destroyers. I can dream, right? At any rate, I am fully supportive of this new found CA to minesweeper conversion he has been experimenting with.


On the ground, he has completely cleared out of the central basin. My tanks have taken everything except Shwebo. His forces have retreated toward Lashio and Taung Gyi. At this point, I'm mostly consolidating my gains, airlifting in engineers to build up the area into a supply base. I am also trying to scout out his forces at the exits to the basin to see if a weak point can be found. If so, I'll consider a follow on attack with armor and infantry.

[BBfanboy]

CA minesweepers! [:D]
What you get when you promote a "rising star" small-ship skipper too quickly.

[tiemanjw]

I don't think I've seen the sync error before that I've seen talked about from time to time on the forum... so I'm not sure I would know it if I saw it.
But on my last replay, I didn't see much activity - and this was the turn I parked 500+ A/C off Ponape. My losses for the day read as 33 Wildcats, 12 SBDs and 10 TBFs and Ponape magically has 30% AF Damage - but I didn't see any of it. Is this the sync bug, and is there anything I can do about it (prevent in the future and/or get the replay I missed)?

[BBfanboy]

Ummm - don't toke up while watching the replay?
And limit yourself to four beers? [;)]

Seriously - are you sure the report settings didn't get changed to suppress the animation and combat reports. This can happen if you accidentally lean on the hot keys for these features.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Ummm - don't toke up while watching the replay?
And limit yourself to four beers? [;)]

Ahh... that is the secret to this game.

Seriously - are you sure the report settings didn't get changed to suppress the animation and combat reports. This can happen if you accidentally lean on the hot keys for these features.

I got other animations - there was bombing all over China, and a few useless sweeps over Burma for example.

These guys were full strength last turn (36 fighters and a few reserve), and this was their first action ever (it is the VF from originally on Essex)
Last turn, they were set to sweep Ponape.



I also got a report in tracker saying that an LSD (Shinshu Maru) was sunk by a Mk13 near Ponape. A few VT & VB groups show several missing A/C, and a few VMFs with wildcats got beat up rather good. Ponape also has 30 AF damage - yesterday it had none. So something happened, but I don't know what.

[tiemanjw]

I re-ran the replay, and it was the same as the first time (what is that they say about insanity?). During the PM air phase, I took the top picture below. Note that TF214 (my CVE TF) is at 121,119 - south of Kusaie Island - and out of range for any Ponape attack.
The bottom picture is from the orders phase. Notice that TF214 is at 120,116 - about 4(?) hexes from where it was in the PM air phase. TF214 is following the ASW TF (specifically to prevent it from reacting and getting themselves in trouble). In any case, I thought the reaction only happened before the air phases. So did Mitscher just go for an evening attack (perhaps accounting for some of my losses?) after the PM phase[:)]?

What am I missing here?

[obvert]

Looks like a sync bug. Use the CR in the open turn after to see what happened. If it was a sync bug your CR file will not be correct and won't show these strikes either, but the one in the open turn will. You can also have your opponent send you his CR which will be the 'real' version of events.

Make sure you both, but especially the Japanese player, shuts down the game between turns and also restarts the computer regularly. Make sure your on the same version of the beta. Until we hear more (I started a thread on it in the tech thread a while back), it seems there may be no complete solution.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Looks like a sync bug. Use the CR in the open turn after to see what happened. If it was a sync bug your CR file will not be correct and won't show these strikes either, but the one in the open turn will. You can also have your opponent send you his CR which will be the 'real' version of events.

Make sure you both, but especially the Japanese player, shuts down the game between turns and also restarts the computer regularly. Make sure your on the same version of the beta. Until we hear more (I started a thread on it in the tech thread a while back), it seems there may be no complete solution.

Thanks. You say I can ask for his combat report... If the sync bug didn't happen, would those reports be the same? I don't want to ask for something that can give me an inside edge, but I would like to have the actual file, as the Intel data mining I do requires it.