Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Better you check the ground unit arrivals for country Commonwealth - in DBB all the Aden and Panama Canal convoys got re-done and in the version that I am playing they all go to Cape Town.

What I know about DBB is minimal. Thanks.

In fact IIRC they are all CD (Arty) units.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: obvert
...Great job stopping that advance through the woods. That is huge and will buy some time.

The only reason to defend forward on that road is that it's the only x3 hex available. not ideal, but it also takes time for him to try to maneuver around if he wants to do so, and you can bring units up the road to reinforce if needed. Those wooded hexes, like the one you just got into, might mean your troops there get isolated (due to slow movement in and out) if he breaks through elsewhere. Only keep what you need in them to stop his advance and make sure he can't win the battle.

You'll have to keep a watch for other attempts to get around your blocks, but the real weak point is now the x2 hex at Pingsiang. He can also knock your forts out since it's a base hex, and fighting tanks in x2 with air strikes in China is not fun. You can delay here, but I'd get especially troop like those next to Changsha (in the woods) back sooner rather than later. Prepare for the Pingsiang hex to fail, and make sure you know what to do wen it looks like it's about to go.

The hex below Chikhiang is simply a tough one to crack for the Japanese but an important road once they break through in the middle. They will eventually so the more forts you have already built the longer you can hold it later. It my game with GJ it took 3 months of intense fighting for him to get this hex, only to take almost two more for Chikhiang itself, so from this game and others he knows that it's important!

The hex to the West of Chikhiang that he's moving toward through the woods must surely be considered, but you mainly have to stop his advance in the woods x3 there off road. Tough for him to sustain attacks in that territory, so if you stop one he could get stuck.

Thanks for your support, observations, and suggestions! I was unaware of all the nuances involved in the area around Changsha. And, I'm still learning how much is enough in a hex to stop an advance. I am likely over-defending too many hexes which leads me open to bad stuff elsewhere.

[Panjack]

March 4, 1942
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Q-Ball's plan in India are a bit more clear. Japanese tanks and infantry crossed the river and just bashed my units at Tezpur and the base is now in Japan's hands. As can be seen below, the important part of the RR in eastern India is now mostly lost to the bad guys.

At the same time, I see that a unit prepping for Bombay is (or was) on a transport heading to Chittagong. So at least this unit (the Imperial Guards Division) seems to be planning on going overland via RR to Bombay.

A number of my Burma refugees were so close to getting on the RR at Tezpur.[:@]

[Lokasenna]

He may not actually be sending them to Bombay. Keep in mind that prep mostly only matters for landing purposes, and defending. If he puts them at Chittagong and then rails them, he's most likely not planning to march them all the way to Bombay. It may just be a SIGINT diversion, hoping to thin your defenses where the unit will actually be going.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

He may not actually be sending them to Bombay. Keep in mind that prep mostly only matters for landing purposes, and defending. If he puts them at Chittagong and then rails them, he's most likely not planning to march them all the way to Bombay. It may just be a SIGINT diversion, hoping to thin your defenses where the unit will actually be going.

How many bases might he have to capture in between to get them close from Chittagong? Paradrops may be in the future.

But Lokasenna is correct, this is not CSI Miami. A clue does not necessarily point directly to reality.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

He may not actually be sending them to Bombay. Keep in mind that prep mostly only matters for landing purposes, and defending. If he puts them at Chittagong and then rails them, he's most likely not planning to march them all the way to Bombay. It may just be a SIGINT diversion, hoping to thin your defenses where the unit will actually be going.

How many bases might he have to capture in between to get them close from Chittagong? Paradrops may be in the future.

But Lokasenna is correct, this is not CSI Miami. A clue does not necessarily point directly to reality.

My guess is that the prep is correct and he'll move them overland after quick paradrop on forward bases. There is not a good way to stop this as the Allies early. There are too many rail lines in India and too many small bases to cover. He'll most likely find a less defended path and be in Bombay within 2-3 weeks, not having to risk a deeper landing (not that it's a huge risk with the KB around, but he might just want to be careful). Or this might be to draw troops from Karachi and behind the LOD before a later landing behind Bombay at Surat to trap those troops or going all-in for a landing at Karachi itself.

He doesn't have to prep for a landing site with the invasion bonus, so he has quite a few weeks to decide if he wants to land more deeply and could use any units to do it.

The trouble is you have to plan for the worst case scenario because with the KB and the troops available to Japan early any of these moves are possible and could give you serious trouble, for instance if you moved most good troops out of Karachi to defend Bombay more heavily. You have to be almost equal in your defensive alignments between the two places.

Here are some bases I'd be worried about and throw a brigade into to stop para-drops. Something I wish I would have done in my game!

[Lokasenna]

Or yes, it could be a trap - hoping that you'll send more things to Bombay for him to kill, if he plans to hammer it hard.

Though I doubt that with your current levels of troops/forts at Bombay/Karachi, he would be able to take them. Just make sure you have plenty of supply on hand.

[Sangeli]

While there is no substantive (only circumstantial) evidence to back this up, but I think that Japan's main attack will be in India. If the Japanese have multiple unrestricted divisions in places like Eastern India in the beginning of March, the only place they could attack before the amphibious bonus is gone is India. The Imperial Guards Division planning for Bombay simply cannot get to Brisbane by March 31st for an invasion.

Also worth noting is that the Japanese don't necessarily have to commit the whole KB to attack India. It is certainly possible for the IJN to commit just enough in the IO to make an invasion of Bombay or Karachi possible and still have enough to counter you in the Pacific. Granted it is certainly a risk to do so as the USN could defeat the split up KB in 1942. But it is simply too early to figure out all of Q-balls intentions.

And while I think you've done a pretty good job in China, as you see it is still a very difficult place to defend. Those 2x hexes are especially vulnerable as GreyJoy has pointed out. If the Japanese can bring enough fresh divisions and tanks to reach the stacking limit in 2x terrain, there's not much you can do to stop them. Best you can do is rotate units but unless your reserve pool is deeper than the Japanese your won't win. That being said, while you have a bunch of holes to plug if the Japanese are spreading their efforts too greatly their reserve pool may not be so deep. Having many threatened sectors can sometimes work to your advantage but the key word is definitely "sometimes".

[BBfanboy]

Again, everyone is focused on a defensive strategy entirely, ignoring Alfred's strong hint that the Chinese should not just dig in.
He seemed to be hinting that there are opportunities to send troops into his rear areas to cut supply, take and destroy bases (after taking just vacate them and let the partisans destroy them),
and draw IJA forces away from the front.
I recommend a mobile reserve of at least five units with good morale (important for march progress) to sneak around the flanks and head for important bases that are likely lightly defended. Shanghai or Peiping will do.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Again, everyone is focused on a defensive strategy entirely, ignoring Alfred's strong hint that the Chinese should not just dig in.
He seemed to be hinting that there are opportunities to send troops into his rear areas to cut supply, take and destroy bases (after taking just vacate them and let the partisans destroy them),
and draw IJA forces away from the front.
I recommend a mobile reserve of at least five units with good morale (important for march progress) to sneak around the flanks and head for important bases that are likely lightly defended. Shanghai or Peiping will do.

Way easier said than done given Japanese air power. You can certainly try indirect tactics but in my experience they give the Japanese too much time to react. Not to mention many of these bases are in terrain and have forts which often are very tough to crack. Not saying it isn't possible and I can certainly think of situations where this could be possible but from the maps Panjack has posted I don't see anything he can really capitalize along the lines mentioned.

On other hand, I have had success in the past using maneuver as a way to counter Japanese offensives that have penetrated without adequate flank protection. Even more so in cases where the Chinese still control the road and the Japanese have left them to outflank the Chinese. If you can march into a 2x or 3x terrain and disrupt the Japanese lines of communication to their front line attackers, you could force the Japanese into doubling back or committing reserves to open up the roads. But no matter what any unit committed to offensive maneuvers is one that is not partaking in defense.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Again, everyone is focused on a defensive strategy entirely, ignoring Alfred's strong hint that the Chinese should not just dig in.
He seemed to be hinting that there are opportunities to send troops into his rear areas to cut supply, take and destroy bases (after taking just vacate them and let the partisans destroy them),
and draw IJA forces away from the front.
I recommend a mobile reserve of at least five units with good morale (important for march progress) to sneak around the flanks and head for important bases that are likely lightly defended. Shanghai or Peiping will do.

Offensives in China early tend to turn into disasters. I've seen some grew pushes into Japanese territory that led to all of China being lost by mid-42.

My advice would be to dig.

[Lokasenna]

Not to mention magical Japanese recon seeing Chinese units a couple of hexes out in most cases.

I have had some access with forward operations in China, but it's been very marginal. In the one game where I seemed to have the IJA on its back feet or at least stalemated, I think I got lucky. It was against Richard III and I had almost taken Canton after a 2-division IJA push to Hong Kong, and I had him tied up around Sinyang with what were supposed to be throwaway units rather than defending around Ankang and Nanyang. If Burma had gone well, China could have turned into a really nasty theater for him.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Not to mention magical Japanese recon seeing Chinese units a couple of hexes out in most cases.

I have had some access with forward operations in China, but it's been very marginal. In the one game where I seemed to have the IJA on its back feet or at least stalemated, I think I got lucky. It was against Richard III and I had almost taken Canton after a 2-division IJA push to Hong Kong, and I had him tied up around Sinyang with what were supposed to be throwaway units rather than defending around Ankang and Nanyang. If Burma had gone well, China could have turned into a really nasty theater for him.

Most I've ever done offensively with the Chinese is take Nanchang from the Japanese in early 1942. It was a level 4 fort with 300 AV in 1x terrain and it took about 10 days to conquer with around 1700 AV Chinese AV deployed in attacks with fresh units being cycled in to replace ones with heavy disablements. And it only worked because I had another offensive nearby to tie down reserves so they couldn't reach Nanchang. Every time I actually am able to get the numerical superiority that I want, I am continually disappointing by the performance of the Chinese in offensive attacks. And even in this game I'm back on the defensive after Japanese reinforcements showed up (although I still hold Nanchang and its important road crossings).

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
..But Lokasenna is correct, this is not CSI Miami. A clue does not necessarily point directly to reality.

Of course not. It's CSI Calcutta!

But, seriously, I look at intel information using, for want of a better term, a probabilistic framework. At best it tells you what might be "more likely" than other things. That's good enough for me!

[Panjack]

So much good stuff has been posted. Luckily, we're moving slowly now due to work obligations and stuff like that so I might actually have time to implement some ideas before Japanese soldiers are strolling the streets of towns near Bombay.

I do expect paradrops as Q-Ball has made at least 2 so far so I'll tell come small units to go double-quick to those key bases on the RR. So many of based need covering, though. [X(] I do need to figure out how to use my more mobile units. One better unit I have available is the 2nd USMC Tank Bn, but I'm not sure how I want to use it yet. Its tanks are the older Stuarts but combined with the experience of the Marines they might be able to do good work again Japanese tank units. I think. My main ID in India are split between Karachi and Bombay, but Karachi has most of the high quality Aussie units. I probably should split them between the two cities.

In China I lack the experience, knowledge, and skills to go on the offensive anywhere seriously. My goal is to have a slow collapse in China rather than a rapid collapse. I do need to start thinking, as suggested, about what I'll do when parts of my defenses get breached and I need to fall back. Right now I'm too committed on the front lines as so many of my reserves have already been tapped. I'm starting to do a census of the hexes I control in China to find where I have more units than needed to defend these hexes.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
In China I lack the experience, knowledge, and skills to go on the offensive anywhere seriously. My goal is to have a slow collapse in China rather than a rapid collapse. I do need to start thinking, as suggested, about what I'll do when parts of my defenses get breached and I need to fall back. Right now I'm too committed on the front lines as so many of my reserves have already been tapped. I'm starting to do a census of the hexes I control in China to find where I have more units than needed to defend these hexes.

I would suggest going through your "front lines" and pulling some units back if there is no Japanese threat at that point in the line. There are definitely a few places in your line where you are committing units to defensive positions where no threat has yet arisen. Your defensive positions NW of Ichang are a pretty good example of this; it seems clear with current Japanese plans they do not intend to march NW out of Ichang yet you even have units deployed off the road to counter that. It seems you have moved away from the tripwire scheme you implemented earlier and as a result are less able to maneuver to meet Japanese attacks.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Panjack
In China I lack the experience, knowledge, and skills to go on the offensive anywhere seriously. My goal is to have a slow collapse in China rather than a rapid collapse. I do need to start thinking, as suggested, about what I'll do when parts of my defenses get breached and I need to fall back. Right now I'm too committed on the front lines as so many of my reserves have already been tapped. I'm starting to do a census of the hexes I control in China to find where I have more units than needed to defend these hexes.

I would suggest going through your "front lines" and pulling some units back if there is no Japanese threat at that point in the line. There are definitely a few places in your line where you are committing units to defensive positions where no threat has yet arisen. Your defensive positions NW of Ichang are a pretty good example of this; it seems clear with current Japanese plans they do not intend to march NW out of Ichang yet you even have units deployed off the road to counter that. It seems you have moved away from the tripwire scheme you implemented earlier and as a result are less able to maneuver to meet Japanese attacks.

Right - you can't really form a continuous line so you just keep some units mobile to go where needed. Strat mode and railways are your friends in India.

[Panjack]

March 5-6, 1942
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Japan takes new RR base (Rajshahi) near Calcutta and units are marching to the RR base at Rangpur. At Rangpur the strongest (sic) unit is the 7th Indian Division with 25 experience. No way it can hold against what is likely coming. I'll likely RR the unit out, but it takes 3 days to go into strat mode so some other units are going to try to delay the approaching Japanese units.

A new landing a Vizagapatnam. As of now, it appears to include only a small number of troops.

Trincomalee is the only holdout on Ceylon.

[Sangeli]

Don't be afraid to use Blenheim bombers in India against the Japanese as they advance. The bombs won't do much damage and the planes are extremely vulnerable to Japanese fighters but they will slow down the Japanese who are advancing and it is unlikely that Q-ball is providing LRCAP on them. They are very useful in enabling extraction in tricky situations where the Japanese are trying to cut off or attack your units before they can escape.

[HansBolter]

I would guess that new small landing is a rail blocker forcing you to divert around it.