Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Lok, don't read my AAR until you run your next turn. There be spoilers there.

Already saw them, too late! I always load Tracker before I run the turn anyway.

It's not as bad as he says [;)]. There's some FOW in the combat replay. And he lost another 200 planes vs. 23 for me. He can't sustain this kind of action. The last 6 days has seen 700 kills for me and only 220 for him - about half of mine to Ops.

This last day, I had 20 new fighter aces, and 2 new double aces. 5 of my guys got ace in a day (including those 2 double aces).

I'll post an update later, if I have time in between turns.

ORIGINAL: Yaab

Lokasenna, you should be thankful for Thunderstorms. If it hadn't been them, you would have lost all six CVEs. Japanese torpedo bombers in Clear weather are murder. In Thunderstorms, they are as useful as the hobbits in Moria.

Unless the thunderstorms are what made the CAP perform so dang poorly in terms of intercepts.

[JocMeister]

Only thing that is true for CAP is that it will always allow stuff through. 100 or 1000 planes doesn´t matter. [:)]

Personally I believe something has gotten messed up somewhere among all the updates. But at least it works both ways. [:)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Only thing that is true for CAP is that it will always allow stuff through. 100 or 1000 planes doesn´t matter. [:)]

That is one of the lessons from your and Obvert's AARs.[&o]

[Lokasenna]

May 12 - May 18, 1943

Nothing huge happens, just a continual slow burn of the battle around Moresby, with occasional sparks.

May 12
5 Shimakaze DDs in a couple scrums with my big CA/CL/DD surface force. CA Chester takes a torpedo at 6,000 yards (shameful), and is later finished off by an I-boat. At least 3 IJN DDs are sunk, probably 4 (I'm +36 ship VPs on the day).

I decide to bomb his strike airfields at night. I disperse my strikes over Hansa Bay and Buna for now, getting a few planes on the ground and not much else.

I also bomb Lunga at night, getting a few more planes on the ground.

B-25s and B-24s bomb Milne Bay's airfield, keeping it suppressed. Other B-25s bomb Moresby.

Lots of sub action in the backfield SLOC of the empire, but not much to show for it.

Port Moresby is taken in an 18:1 shock attack. I left the combat report on my work computer, so can't quote it... 2742 IJA casualties, still mostly disabled, against 656 Allies that are almost entirely disables. So, territory objective accomplished with startling ease.

About 5,000 Supply is on the ground at Moresby. Not enough for a month of sitting still, but I'll bring more in later.

He actually lost 149 planes this day - I think about 1/3 on the ground and 1/3 in the air, with the rest split between flak and ops. I lost another 45, about half of them CV fighters.

May 13-14
Over in Burma, I'm bombing Mandalay's manpower in the understanding that putting out fires costs Supply.

I hit Rabaul's port at night with about a dozen B-24s. I blow up an ACM, and put a 500lb SAP bomb each into AS Jingei and I-155. Yard time for both.

Otherwise, just a lot of ASW by my CVs as they follow the crippled TFs at the pace of 2 hexes every 3 days, on the way to Cooktown. It's going to be a long haul. He sweeps Moresby with Zeroes and Tojos from Buna and Manus Island, and starts trying to bomb the AF at night. He's only coming in at 12,000 feet - he must have seen the OOB of the AA units that I landed. 24 3.7" AA guns will mess him up if he comes in low.

RO-66 is sunk on the surface after missing Saratoga with 6 torpedoes. [X(] I've always held that the RO boats really aren't worth much.

I get SIGINT that the Wake CD Bn is heading to Truk. Interesting...

[Lokasenna]

May 15

More sub action in the SRA and near Japan. Some xAKs sunk.

MM loses 216 planes in what looks to have been a sort of lucky air strike from Buna. Looks like an enormous Kate unit based there (prime reason I don't plan to fight near air complexes like this*) is what got through.

CV Wasp is hit by 2 torpedoes and crippled, but not in immediate danger of sinking. The combat report lists heavy fires, heavy damage, but when I load the turn she only has 2 fires remaining. Damage is 34 / 58(33) / 13(1) / 2. She can still make 2 hexes per day even at cruising speed.

CV Hornet is hit by 1 torpedo and her flight operations are knocked out. Initial damage is 14 / 43(25) / 3(1) / 0.

CV Yorktown "suffers" a FOW torpedo hit. No damage.

CVE Prince William continues to make a few hexes every few days, and damage is holding steady at 43 / 86(58) / 20(7). Sys has creeped up from 40, and flooding is actually up to 86 after decreasing to 84 last turn. Just a few more hexes to port.

I lost 24 planes on the day to shoot down over 4 times that many Kates in air-to-air alone. 20 new Aces today, with 2 new Double Aces. 5 guys got Ace in a Day; both of the Double Aces achieved this. Huge EXP bumps on my pilots for this. I hope his pilot losses were horrendous: this is Scen 1 and he'll run out.

VP ratio down to 2.331:1.

*Moresby was just fruit hanging too low. Minimal defenders, and worth a ton of VPs. Plus if I have it, maybe I can use it to shunt my way up to Wewak/Hollandia eventually.

May 16

Sick of Buna's airfield, and knowing that he lost a lot of fighters, I raid the place during the day with my full bomber strength from Portland Roads. 125 P-38s also take part. I plan to completely obliterate it, and I do.

Morning Air attack on Buna , at 99,129

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 68
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 21
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 25

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 29
B-24D Liberator x 25
B-24D1 Liberator x 8
B-25C Mitchell x 3
B-25D1 Mitchell x 20
P-38G Lightning x 68
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed, 19 damaged
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 21 damaged
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 25 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 15 damaged
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 7 destroyed on ground
B5N2 Kate: 15 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 10 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak
P-38G Lightning: 1 destroyed
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAP Kokuryu Maru, heavy damage
xAP Kitano Maru ....Huh? No Port strikes, why are these showing up?

Japanese ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 73
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 145

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-24D1 Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
8 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
9 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 2000 feet
Airfield Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
248th Sentai with Ki-44-IIb Tojo (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 25000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 25000.
Raid is overhead
252 Ku S-1 with A6M5 Zero (1 airborne, 3 on standby, 16 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 38000 , scrambling fighters between 1000 and 38000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 40 minutes
251 Ku S-1 with A6M5 Zero (2 airborne, 6 on standby, 20 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 38000 , scrambling fighters between 2000 and 38500.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
202 Ku S-1 with A6M5 Zero (1 airborne, 3 on standby, 16 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 38000 , scrambling fighters between 1000 and 38500.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 40 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-44-IIb Tojo (2 airborne, 5 on standby, 17 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 36000 , scrambling fighters between 4000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 32 minutes
50th Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (2 airborne, 4 on standby, 15 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 18000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes

His turn to get hit by large intercept times. Looks like I really made him pay for having all his guys on Escort and low CAP percentages: look at the number scrambling!

Other fragments of the raid trickle in. Beaufighters get completely shot down, and some B-25s go on their own to do some damage but take more.

He loses 115 planes to my 45 this day. 87 of his are on the ground. Buna's AF is reported as 99% damaged the next day. Awesome! If I have my way, he'll never use it again. That's a huge strategic swing in this theater, as Milne Bay is already not safe for him, leaving Lae, Rabaul, and Hansa Bay as the only AFs bigger than 0 or 1. Revenge is sweet. In his thirst to get my CVs, he lost one of his few level 8 AFs, maybe for good.

My losses are broken down as follows: 14x 4Es, about half to flak and half to ops; 14 B-25s, 9 to A2A; 9 Beaufighters, all to A2A; 1 P-38 to ops. Other 11 plane losses are Ops or flak elsewhere around the map.

21 P-38Fs sweep last, and meet empty skies. Cool!

Interesting: movement dots sighted within the stack at Lunga, heading NW to Tass.

Subs take another couple of xAKs from him this turn.

[Lokasenna]

May 17

He continues to try to bomb Moresby at night with Helens from Rabaul; about 70 of them. My continuous recon reports ~160 bombers at Rabaul, so that's about half. Cool.

I send a second monster raid against Buna and pound the place pretty good. Some B-25s mixed in on Port strike this time but it doesn't do much damage to the docks. I get a smattering of planes on the ground, but it looks like he may have flown out anything that was still operable. Buna is deserted when I load the turn for May 18. [:D]

My subs hit a few more xAKs/xAPs. I'd love it if he kept his DDs out of his convoys forever [;)]. Mostly, I run into somewhere between 1-3 PBs or SCs. He needs to convoy up bigger or I'll continue to get a kill here and a kill there every day or two.

I have a couple of subs working the western Korean coast and the western shores of Hokkaido, where I am finding completely unescorted xAKs. 2 of them go down this turn, plus I find out that non-combat troops are heading to or from Babeldaob as their xAK gets crippled.

[Lokasenna]

CV Status Report
Alright, now the juicy bits. My CVs and CVEs kept on retreating through all of this, and no sub attacks other than the one on Saratoga several days ago. Screenshot is from May 18, 1943, just before submitting orders to MM.

CVE Prince William is 2 hexes outside of Portland Roads (port 4), so she should put in on May 20 or 21. She is making 5 knots. She's hovering around current damage levels, though flooding damage has decreased slightly while Sys has gone up 5 points, which is worrisome.

CVE Altamaha is doing great, considering. She and CVE Nassau are heading for Brisbane or Sydney, haven't decided which yet.

CVE Long Island went down to sleep with the fishes on May 11, actually. A lone torpedo hit from Nells finished her off.

CVE Sangamon is repairing from a pesky sub hit about a month ago while I was prepping for all of this.

CV Wasp and CV Hornet are being escorted by my other 3 CVs, and they reached Cooktown today. Hornet is capable of flight ops again, and I brought her air group back on board (risky, I know, if a sub shows up - but her SBDs/TBFs could make a different there also). I had wanted to drop Wasp into Cooktown's level 5 Port, but he's keeping up steady recon of the base and she would be the only ship in port. That's just asking for a strike, and I don't want to move my CAP around to protect the base. I'm continuing on towards Cairns and Townsville, either of which I can reasonably protect while I use my regional ARs to knock down that Sys damage.

Other "orphaned" air groups are congregating at Charters Towers, either for reunion with their mother ships or for reassignment. A few will have to be disbanded so that I can buy back the unit(s).

Reminds me that I need to buy back the CVE TBFs. I'll get revenge on MM later once they come back out and I resize them to 90, if I can [;)]. It looks like I'm going to have TBFs coming out of my ears for the entire rest of the war.

[Lokasenna]

Mini-theater screenshot below.

Fully unloaded amphibs are already well off screen, on their way to do something else that I've noticed is low-hanging fruit, ready to be harvested...

I will require CVs for it, but I should have enough. CV Essex has already departed Hawaii with yet more escorts, and CV Victorious completes her refit very soon (I'll load Wasp's Hellcats up on her, I think). I also have about 20 Fletchers in theater. I plan to hit him while his air units may be off balance from this stroke against Moresby. If it goes down like I'm hoping, he won't even have any warning and so I won't have to deal with a 1-day or 2-day reaction (at full speed) by KB.

[Lokasenna]

Graduate-level Pilot School

The thing I'm most excited about in this latest exchange? Check out these pilot EXP levels:

78 USN pilots are now EXP 81+, with 2 more MIA. More are on the cusp, at 80. Many more are in the upper 70s.

Some of my pilots received +10 EXP in the day that Wasp and Hornet got hit. Many of the CVE-based pilots were in the thicker action, and while they didn't have bad experience levels already, they were around upper 60/low 70 beforehand. Now about half of them are mid-upper 70.

[Lokasenna]

Last update for tonight. VPs!



Huge gains in the last month, most of them in the last week. I highlighted from the turn that I passed the 2.5:1 ratio milestone, almost exactly 4 weeks ago. I'm now down almost all the way to 2.3:1! Well on the way to my 01/01/1944 goal of 2:1 or better.

I'm almost doubling his air loss points now. I am hoping to be able to use all the EXP gained on my USN pilots to snowball now. I'd go so far as to say that, since he hasn't used KB much and hasn't achieved any good sweeps with IJNAF pilots in many moons, my USN fighter pilots are probably at least the equal to KB's stock. I'll have to check the average EXP levels once I get them all regrouped.

While his VPs are only up 709, he did actually gain ~1050 permanent VPs while losing 340 base VPs. Almost all of his permanent VPs come from air losses and the 3 CVEs plus CA Chester (about 760).

Shouldn't have to assault several interlocking, large airfields for a while. For the foreseeable future, it should be all semi-isolated islands that I can take on a few at a time. That will help mitigate the KB Risk Factor also.

[Lowpe]

As always it is really interesting to read both sides of the AAR. Many thanks for doing it.

You edge in pilots will continue to grow...

Looks like he was guarding against sweeps at Buna, very high altitude, and your bombers knifed right thru. Did you run into any balloons?

I think after a year and half of running roughshod over the the Allies, it is very difficult for Japan to mentally adjust and figure out new strategies to counter the growing strength/dominance of the Allies. You really slapped Japan down, rebuffing a Japanese attack west of Horn, and then taking Port Moresby. If you wouldn't have done the airplane upgrade, the damage would be so much worse for Japan.

[Lokasenna]

Hrm, his permanent VPs are a bit worse than I thought. He still holds Darwin this time with some token units, but didn't hold it at the start of that highlighted period. So his permanent VPs were more around 860 or so. I'll get Darwin back in a month or more, when I get some supply flowing up that direction.

It's possible he was guarding against sweeps. That was a fairly large CAP, and would've chewed up the inevitably disorganized P-38 sweeps. I had some damage from balloons, but not much. In the raids after the first day, I increased altitude to 7000. No need to go in at 2000 when the airfield was already trashed.

[Lokasenna]

A couple of big logistical turns. Current game date May 25, 1943.

Hornet and Wasp are repairing at Townsville with 2 ARs. 2 weeks until Hornet sails for Sydney. Almost a month for Wasp. That's fine; I have plans for my other CVs. Essex is joining up with them in just a few days, and in 15 days the Victorious will be out of the yards at Sydney. I plan to take her with a full complement of TBFs and go burn something flammable... Recon of the target area has come back with positive results.

I am underprepped for my next invasion target, so this gives my USMC Div time to finish prepping as well.

I am renaming my "replacement" Essexes. For the moment, they are all dubbed CV Lexington [:D]. I might continue this pattern with my others. Having duplicate ship names could confound him a little [;)].

Pieces of another USMC division and the 7th USA Division are arriving in Hawaii in the next few days, already fully prepped for some late 1943 targets.

Navy Liberators are arriving in larger numbers now, with many transiting SOPAC for SWPAC and beyond.

He's trying to build up Kai-eilanden, but I'm keeping the AF there damaged with bombers from Portland Roads.

Buna and Milne Bay remain inoperable. I also think he's making a big strategic mistake in that area, and will elaborate with screenies and SIGINT reports shortly.

[Lokasenna]

Alright, so what is he doing here? Why is he committing so much?

Does he really think that I'm going to walk over the Owen Stanley mountains anytime soon? Why is he moving to the E and NE of Moresby? Why does he have so many units at Buna? Why is he shipping more in?

I can just go around. I don't need to take Buna/Milne/Lae if he can't use them. Once I take my next target, Rabaul becomes vulnerable, albeit less so with its AF9 and no stacking limits.

I'm getting eyes on Truk via PB4Y-1Ps from Morebsy this turn. It's my best bet on where KB is located, especially given that Chikuma and Tone were seen in action at Lunga several days ago (now probably at Rabaul, as shown in the screenie).

What strike aircraft he has left appear to have moved to Rabaul. He is down on fighter strength in the theater, only 100 at Lunga and only about 240 between Lae and Rabaul. He lost so many aircraft. I assume he is rebuilding units now.

Also puzzling - why does he have seemingly a brigade-size unit at each of these bases (Milne, Lae, Kiriwina)? I suppose it can protect against paradrops, but so can a naval guard unit and level 3 forts.

I think he's making a big POW camp for himself here. Am I wrong? He seems desperate to only allow me an inch at a time, and his zealousness in pursuing that goal may be making him miss the bigger picture here? If and when I choose, I can pick off a few of these bases and then his troops will really be stuck, right?

[Lowpe]

I don't try and figure out m-m! Just go with the intel and do my own thing. I suggest you do the same.[:)]

Actually, Grant said that about Lee at some point, that Lee better worry about what I (Grant) am going to do! As Grant got sick of being asked the reverse.

I think I shot down 500-1000 Japanese fighters in our last Downfall turn from hints he has given me and the length of time it is taking him in flipping the turn. This was my first full out sweep of western and south central Japan using Jugs and Mustangs. Rebuilding shattered air squadrons is no fun. In one month we have played Japan has lost 2500 planes without really working hard at all at it -- in fact I went purposefully easy on him so Japan could build better frames and pilots. During the last turn I suspect I lost less than 20 frames, a handful of Jugs, and the rest Mustangs.

Anyway, I see lots and lots of opportunity on that map.[:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I don't try and figure out m-m! Just go with the intel and do my own thing. I suggest you do the same.[:)]

Actually, Grant said that about Lee at some point, that Lee better worry about what I (Grant) am going to do! As Grant got sick of being asked the reverse.

I think I shot down 500-1000 Japanese fighters in our last Downfall turn from hints he has given me and the length of time it is taking him in flipping the turn. This was my first full out sweep of western and south central Japan using Jugs and Mustangs. Rebuilding shattered air squadrons is no fun. In one month we have played Japan has lost 2500 planes without really working hard at all at it -- in fact I went purposefully easy on him so Japan could build better frames and pilots. During the last turn I suspect I lost less than 20 frames, a handful of Jugs, and the rest Mustangs.

Anyway, I see lots and lots of opportunity on that map.[:)]

Opportunity knocks elsewhere right now... scurrying to take advantage. I may only have a couple of days to accomplish something. Hopefully it's a smashing success!

I'm just wondering why he's responding like this, it doesn't really alter my plans any [;)].

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I don't try and figure out m-m! Just go with the intel and do my own thing. I suggest you do the same.[:)]

Actually, Grant said that about Lee at some point, that Lee better worry about what I (Grant) am going to do! As Grant got sick of being asked the reverse.

I think I shot down 500-1000 Japanese fighters in our last Downfall turn from hints he has given me and the length of time it is taking him in flipping the turn. This was my first full out sweep of western and south central Japan using Jugs and Mustangs. Rebuilding shattered air squadrons is no fun. In one month we have played Japan has lost 2500 planes without really working hard at all at it -- in fact I went purposefully easy on him so Japan could build better frames and pilots. During the last turn I suspect I lost less than 20 frames, a handful of Jugs, and the rest Mustangs.

Anyway, I see lots and lots of opportunity on that map.[:)]

Opportunity knocks elsewhere right now... scurrying to take advantage. I may only have a couple of days to accomplish something. Hopefully it's a smashing success!

I'm just wondering why he's responding like this, it doesn't really alter my plans any [;)].

My guess is that he hasn't formed a movie in his mind of how the rest of the war will play out, so he is just puttering at the here and now rather than preparing for the next six months.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Opportunity knocks elsewhere right now... scurrying to take advantage. I may only have a couple of days to accomplish something. Hopefully it's a smashing success!

I'm just wondering why he's responding like this, it doesn't really alter my plans any [;)].

Looking forward to reading about it.[:)]

I think I know why -- but I cannot tell you. Sorry.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Opportunity knocks elsewhere right now... scurrying to take advantage. I may only have a couple of days to accomplish something. Hopefully it's a smashing success!

I'm just wondering why he's responding like this, it doesn't really alter my plans any [;)].

Looking forward to reading about it.[:)]

I think I know why -- but I cannot tell you. Sorry.

It'll take a few days to materialize. I was originally going to pounce on something right away, but decided that as long as I play it cool the opportunity will remain until I'm able to get even more pieces in place. I plan to be as dastardly as possible.

I have Operation Sideshow coming to fruition in 2 days time also. Could be anything from a nothing burger to ensuing hilarity.

Of course, like Sideshow, this opportunity could turn out to have minimal tangible results. At the very least it will accomplish something strategically, though...

[Lokasenna]

Operation Sideshow - May 30, 1943



[8D]

Too bad I can't turn off the Oil.