Decline and Fall The Long Way Round

[AllenK]

At the approach of the Japanese fighters, the leading US bomber formation scatters and heads back to their carriers. The leading IJN fighters try and give chase but are bounced by the US fighter escort and shot out of the sky (Axis 13 DA, Allies 4 DX). Flying inferior machines, the US F4F-4 pilots distinguish themselves by shooting the IJN A6M6’s out of the sky and clearing the SBD-2’s through to the Japanese fleet (Axis 11 DC, Allied 17 DX PX). The US fighters try to turn their attention to the IJN bombers but the IJN commander sends a D3A2 wing to stop them. The F4F-4’s add to their honours by dispatching them without loss (Axis 10 DC, Allied 4 AX). The tide of battle is turning the US way.

The F4F-4’s finally break through to the IJN bombers. The leading IJN formation is forced to jettison bombs and head back to base but the US fighters are in turn caught by IJN A6M2s and shot down (Axis 17 DX PX, Allies 14 AA). Down to their second eleven, the US SBD-5s pick up where the first team left off by blasting a IJN Seiko group out of the sky (Axis 13 -, Allies 20 AX PX). The SBD-5s then proceed to mix it with the A6M2s, shooting them from the sky as well. Out of ammo, they are forced to return to their carrier (Axis 7 DA, Allies 17 DX PX). In a desperate attempt to protect the remaining bombers, IJN Claude’s throw themselves against the US TBF4-1 wing. They too are shot out of the sky but crucially the TBF4-1s have to return to their carrier (Axis 16 DA, Allied 17 DX PX).

Three IJN bombers and one US bomber commence their bombing runs.

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

ORIGINAL: composer99

I'm curious why the Spanish chose a blitzkrieg. An assault with the same die roll result would have slaughtered 3 Italian units.

Hi Composer99,

Thanks for chipping in.

Well, yes, if I'd known in advance what the die roll was going to be I might well have chosen an assault.

The main thinking (and very possibly faulty) was I understand the blitzkrieg tends to produce fewer losses for the defender and forces the attacker to choose a more valuable unit as the first loss. Of the die roll combinations, only 7/19 would cause the attacker a loss of two or more units. With only 1 loss, the cheap INF Div would have perished. On the Blitz table there are 11/19 combinations to inflict at least 1 loss, the first of which being the MOT. In terms of defensive losses, the assault table causes the loss of at least 1 unit on 11/19 combinations, whereas the blitz causes this only 8/19.

I know this is a crude probability analysis as not all combinations are equally likely but hopefully you get the picture.

With few Spanish units to defend the country and significant CW/US support likely to take some time to get into place, I wanted the best chance to preserve the defenders. As it turned out, I got the worst of both worlds but hey, that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

I'd be interested to hear your rationale for going with the assault.

We had a +5 attack (no table choice yet) and 1 defender.

Based on that, if we choose an assault:
- the Axis need to roll a 9 or better to take the hex - that is, their probability of taking the hex is 72%

- their probability of remaining partly organised is 22% (roll of 14-17)
- their probability of remaining completely organised is 6% (roll of 18 or better)

- their probability of taking 3 losses is 8% (roll of 9)
- their probability of taking 2 losses is 32% (rolls of 2-4, 10, 11, and 14)
- their probability of taking 1 loss is 34% (rolls of 5-7, 12, 15, and 17)
- their probability of taking 0 losses is 26% (rolls of 8, 13, 16, and 18+)

- the probability the Spanish unit would survive is 28% (because all Axis success results destroy the defending unit)

If instead we choose a blitz:
- the probability the Axis will take the hex is 79% (roll of 8 or better)

- their probability of remaining partly organised is 30% (roll of 12-15)
- their probability of remaining completely organised is 15% (roll of 16 or better)

- they can't possibly take 3 losses
- their probability of taking 2 losses is 10% (rolls of 2, 3, and 8)
- their probability of taking 1 loss is 52% (rolls of 4-6, 9-11, 14, and 15)
- their probability of taking 0 losses is 38% (rolls of 7, 12, 13, and 16+)

- the probability the Spanish unit would survive is 66% (rolls of 2-7, and 11-16)

So yes, the Spanish were 2 1/3 times more likely to survive the blitz, but the Axis were also more likely to take the hex and remain organised, and would take less losses overall. Hence why I would have gone for the assault (and felt a great deal of Shchadenfreude at Italy's expense when the net '14' came up.)

[AllenK]

Hi Composer99,

Thank you for taking the time to show the more detailed probability analysis. I can fully see the value of the choice that maximises the likely attacking losses but at the expense of a more likely defensive loss. If the defence hadn't been quite so thin on the ground I would certainly have gone for it. As it was, rightly or wrongly, losing the hex was less important to me than preserving the unit. Trade space for time and all that.

So yes, enjoy your Shchadenfreude. I'm happy for people to get their enjoyment from these episodes of Tales of the Inexplicable in which ever way suits their personal tastes. In fact, for a double helping, have a read of the Soviet attack on Manstein above. Having calculated the odds of the unwanted defensive loss were equal, I chose the assault table to maximise attacking losses only to roll a number that, on the blitz table, would have merely retreated Manstein, as desired, instead of destroying him.

Thinking about it over the long haul, given a choice between two alternatives, consistently going with the one more likely to cause greater BP loss to your opponent than they inflict on you is the better strategy. Which, in a roundabout way, is saying I think you are right. Thank you for your kind advice and giving me the opportunity to reflect upon and learn from my play/mistakes [:)]

[AllenK]

The Japanese surprise the US air gunners who only manage to cause the Japanese to lose 2 points of bombs (AA reduced from lowest 2 of 5 to lowest 1 of 3). The IJN gunners cause 4/5 of the US bombs to fall short. Hampered by the rain, the Japanese strike sinks a TRANS containing the US I MAR, damages the BB Colarado and damages the TRANS containing the US V MAR. The IJN escapes without damage.

With their air groups largely shredded and the immediate invasion threat to the Marshalls lifted, the IJN decides to call it quits and heads back to Tokyo. Apart from the damaged ships returning to port, the USN stays in the sea area. Boy did the rain save the US from a more serious drubbing: X,2D vs 3X,2A in clear weather.

[Grotius]

Ouch -- heavy air losses for the Japanese. I imagine the aircraft (and pilots) won't be easy to replace.

Thanks for the screenshots of potential invasion targets; very illuminating. I'm actually impressed with how much of the north coast of Europe the Germans have managed to garrison.

Centuur, why is it necessary to defeat Germany via France? Couldn't AllenK expand his bridgehead at Kiel and push into Germany from there? Or is it that liberation of France brings more French troops into the Allied war effort?

AllenK, I for one hope you see this one through, even if you think the Axis will win. My games have never gotten as far as yours, mostly because I mess up the early Axis offensives and the Allies get the upper hand early. I'm glad to read an AAR going the other way. It helps that you write so well. Keep it coming!

[composer99]

IIRC the reasons to go into France before entering Germany are:

- cuts down on German production, since you're destroying German units and seizing resources & factories without giving the Germans a production bump
- German reinforcements are further away when you're in France, until you reach the Low Countries and Alsace-Lorraine, anyway
- no German supply problems - Germany can often have supply issues along the Atlantic coast
- there's more tank country in France
- you're closer to the giant airbase called the UK
- the French Atlantic ports are preferable for shipping in the sizeable US Army in 1944+
- a full-bore invasion of France is harder to bottle up if you have enough reinforcements and air superiority

In a regular WiF game, the possibility of bringing more French forces to bear isn't a key part of the strategy, because any (Free) French units you don't already have in play by the summer of 1944 are going to be bit players at best in 1945. But in this game, which AllenK has indicated is an extended game, a re-built French force could be a key player by, say, the summer of 1946, with the air force built out, a decent land army, and o-chits to support it.

[AllenK]

Grotius & Composer99,

Thank for your ongoing support and commentary, it’s very much appreciated. In answer to a couple of points:

Grotius, the Japanese losses are indeed a blow. Production at the moment is 18 BP although I think I can send out a CP to get a further resource back to the factories. Fortunately for the Japanese, there are two CVP’s back in Japan; a 6-2 D4Y2 and a 2-5 B5N2 that can immediately be rebased to the empty CV’s. For a good while they have been in the position of having CVP’s sat on land because their class was too high to go on the CVL’s (in consequence lying empty in port) but unable to fit on the CV’s as their air groups were maxed out. Still, it’s a better position to be in than the US one of empty CV’s with nothing to put on them, as it does give some resilience to losses.

Expanding from Kiel would take some good carpet bombing, which is a non-starter at this moment since the German fighters are better quality than the Allied ones. The North European coast is strongly garrisoned, probably too much. I think I’ve overestimated the Allied threat, but if you look back a couple of posts, the eastern front is starting to look rather precarious. The centre is nothing more than a thin screen; the south has lost two key HQ’s and has a hole punched in the line and the north is facing the loss of the Finns, which would put that front OOS. I foresee Runstedt being told to stop sunning himself down by La Rochelle and head to Russia immediately, possibly followed by one of the other HQ’s, although that would create supply difficulties in France.

Composer99, I fully concur with your points on the reasons for the Allies invading through France. The difficulty in keeping the Atlantic ports in supply was experienced back in ’41 (it all seems so long ago now) and exploited by the CW. It was why, when the opportunity opened up in ’42 for the Allies to concentrate far more units than the Germans had in France, they jumped at the chance. It nearly broke the Germans.

To stop the US/CW getting to the Fatherland they had to deploy all their reinforcements to the West. In consequence, the Soviets were able to drive practically unopposed to within striking distance of Warsaw. The game hinged on one crucial die roll; the German ground-strike on the HQ supporting the Soviet drive. Had it failed (70% likely) the Soviets would have taken Warsaw and cut the last remaining railway from the Baltic States. Central Russia would have become a giant POW camp for the bulk and the best of the German army. The German cupboard was bare, with nothing between Warsaw and Berlin. Yes, I would have been able to scramble some units into place but they would have had to come from the Western front or Army Group South. Either way, the weakening of those fronts would probably have led to their demise. I wish I had kept a game saved at this point to play out the alternative ground-strike failure scenario but I can’t see the Germans surviving much into 1944. After that, the Italians and Japanese would have been easy.

The UK is indeed a great big unsinkable airbase. On the other hand, having captured them, the Kiel peninsular and Denmark are also proving promising and closer to Germany.

Regarding Free French units, there are none. When the Germans re-conquered Paris, the French aligned minors decided to free themselves from the old colonial yoke and decared independence. They are now all neutral minors. I guess it would take the Allies re-re-capturing France to get any French units on the board. That doesn't look likely in the immediate future as the German garrison is stronger than what the available Allied shipping would be able to bring to the party. Maybe the developing situation on the Eastern front will loosen that but it'll take time.

[AllenK]

M/J 1944 Axis Impulse 4 Air Phases

None of the Axis powers mount any Strategic Bombing or Carpet Bombing. The Japanese decide against any Ground-strikes. The Germans declare two and the Italians one.

Strike one is against the Soviet HQ supporting the effort against Army Gp Ctr. They manage to hit the ground but that's about it.

[AllenK]

For strike two, the Germans are using two mobile artillery units against the defenders of Kiel. Depending on how this goes, the Germans are considering an attempt at recapture.

The Hummel gunners put in a sterling (should that be a Deutschmarkian or nowadays Euroesque) effort, disorganising 3/4 of the units. Note to self, don't put your fighter cover on the front line in range of artillery, it's just asking for trouble . The SIG II fails to trouble the scorers.

This could prove interesting.

[AllenK]

Strike three, the Italian job.

They only need to blow the bl**dy doors off but they too fail to trouble the scorers.

[AllenK]

The Italians rail move Graziani out of Arabia to Beruit. The Germans rail Rundstedt to NE of Voronezh and GARRs to Brest and Calais to relieve the decent INF units currently there. The Japanese have nothing they want to move by rail.

[AllenK]

M/J 1944 Axis Impulse 4: Land Movement

The dance in China continues. Having concentrated forces to re-capture Chengchow, the Japanese find themselves in danger of being put OOS by 2nd Yoke Inf. Gen Terauchi moves 1 hex east to head off this threat.

Realising the Chinese have made a mistake bringing the CAV in close to Taiyuan, the Japanese 11th and 25th Inf move a hex east ready to attack the CAV.

[AllenK]

In Russia, Germans decide holding the railway any longer would most likely lose them the two units in place. The III Arm is withdrawn, leaving the disorganised IX SS Mech to its fate.

Two HQ's shift position to enable the front to remain in supply and VI 55 Mot moves from Kursk to plug the gap in the line. The Germans then notice an opportunity to put Gen Chernyakhovsky and 1st Mech, disorganised after their attack on Manstein, out of supply. This is too good an opportunity to miss and the Germans move up seeking to get some revenge for the loss of their HQ.

Further north, the Germans decide offence may be the best defence and concentrate units for an attack on the Soviet 2nd Inf and 4th Mot.

[AllenK]

In Germany, there is some shifting of units to improve the potential attack strength for an attempt on Kiel. In Spain, the Germans and Italians move across the border, through the mountain passes, in pursuit of the retreating Spanish.

[AllenK]

The Germans declare the three attacks mentioned above. The Japanese declare the attack on the Communist CAV.

The US task force in the Baltic close in to Kiel to support the CW defenders. The Germans fly a Ju88 to support the attack at Kiel.

[AllenK]

The Japanese assault on the Cav by Taiyuan destroys the unit (rolled 13 on +14) and the two Japanese units advance to occupy the ground previously held by the CAV (apologies, forgot to save the screenshot).

The attack on Kiel destroys the CW 2nd Inf Div, but proceedings end for the time being as all are now disorganised.

[AllenK]

The attack on Chernyakhovsky is a formality. XXIV Arm advances to occupy the positions formerly occupied by the two destroyed Soviet units.

[AllenK]

The offensive defence policy proves successful as the Germans blitz through the two Soviet units.

[AllenK]

Not much else of significance happens for the remainder of the impulse. The Japanese load their two spare CVP's onto Hiryu and Amagi.

Overall, a good impulse for the Axis, with improvement to their situation in Russia.

M/J 1944 Allied Impulse 5

The weather takes a distinct turn for the worst with Storms in the Arctic and Nth Monsoon and rain everywhere else except the sunny Med (roll of 2).

US and CW Combined, Russia and China Land.

[composer99]

It's probably not the weather for it, but the disorganised Germans in Germany do present an opportunity if the Allies have marines (or forces that can invade from the Baltic) available.