http://ieer.org/resource/disarmamentpea ... he-target/
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/731073/posts
Seems that you pays your money and takes your chance.
Older material (and I mean only from the late 90s or early 00's *) indicated more firmly that Germany was the target until it became obvious that the bomb wouldn't be ready and/or the Germans were already more or less beaten ... even the more recent stuff is equivocal ... 'until 1943' everyone on the project was expecting Germany, but actual target selection wasn't done until 1944 and the Bombs weren't ready till 1945.
Regardless of how you slice it, it's obvious that Germany was the first intended target ... even if things didn't make that possible.
* ISTR that 'Downfall' had a reference in one of its footnotes that mentioned that specific targets had been at least suggested in Germany, from memory Bremen or Bremerhaven was one mentioned. But take that with a grain of salt, as I have no intention of digging through the scads of footnotes therein to see if I'm remembering the correct source [:)]
Phil
Author, Space Opera (FGU); RBB #1 (FASA); Road to Armageddon; Farm, Forge and Steam; Orbis Mundi; Displaced (PGD)
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