How to take Greece?

[Dabrion]

The agreements about the territorial claims of both parties where of course not disclosed in the official version of the treaty. The treaty had a secret agreement about spheres of influence, there are microfilm copies of it (http://www.1000dokumente.de/index.html? ... &nav=&l=de). I am not sure how good your German is, I can translate if you want.

Also the borderline adjustments where reactionary later in '40 after the trade agreements were endangered.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Dabrion

The agreements about the territorial claims of both parties where of course not disclosed in the official version of the treaty. The treaty had a secret agreement about spheres of influence, there are microfilm copies of it (http://www.1000dokumente.de/index.html? ... &nav=&l=de). I am not sure how good your German is, I can translate if you want.

Also the borderline adjustments where reactionary later in '40 after the trade agreements were endangered.

I've read the German text too. My German is quite OK, I believe, since I've got relatives in Austria and have been visiting them since childhood.

[Joseignacio]

Current situation, after Saturday's game:

[Dabrion]

Seems a fair start. Are these only ships in Athens? Did you use all your lift? I guess you could have brought a corps in on E2213 in surprise (3movers make it to Athens in 2 impulses: ->2314->Athens(straight)). Guess a fighter or two would do good counter CW air on Crete. And

Also, is this EoT? How is the situation in the EMed? The 5-4wp MTN is a '41 unit, I was under the impression your game was in late '40? Did CW reorg the Res MIL with a TRS?

[Joseignacio]

The 4-3 inf in the south is there by now only to block the Greeks possibilities to expand and leave place for UK reinforcements. There are 4 greek units now (including 2 mont) and one CW white printed (7-3) unit in Athens along with one of them.

There are 6 It units in the north, plus one HQ and one MAR in Tirana, and 1 GE HQ with a GE MECH (for blitz purposes if any battle in clear) which gave me the clear hex north of Athens without resistance. After seeing how it finally came out, I should have taken an INF, cause there was a IT MECH as well...

It's the end of my second impulse Mar/Apr, third of the turn. Now it's their move. I have the initiative, so I roll for the weather.

2213 If you are speaking of the hex, where the convoys are, they are not really there, there is nothing there, those convoys are at Athens, just I separated them to remember to port strike them if they allow me. I could invade that with my Mar, provided that I control the sea.

The sea is disputed, he has all his CV in The Faroes, to deal with some raids by my subs and specially by the Kriegsmarine, which have been unsuccessful though, by sheer bad luck. Out of this luck he sunk one crappy cruiser and damaged the GE CV, but at least he was driven into leaving the Med in a critical moment.

In the med, I sent a GE NAV with 15 Range, but I was unaware that a previously damaged CV (italian frogmen), the best one, was loaded with a 4 factor fighter and he rolled a 19. Saturday was a horrible luck day.

I have several more NAVs and several LR (6) (4) It interceptors to gain that control again. Plus the Regia Marina not only to face that fleet toe to toe but also to hold support.

At this moment both IT TRS are unused and ready to part athough they are not situated correctly if I wanted to invade in the Eastern Med.

Yes, I didn't think it necessary to bring fighters specifically having Italy by the side. I have plenty of them that I'll rebase.

My DoW was in a fair weather impulse in Jan/Feb'41, the turn ended inmediately afterwards and (with our new ruleset) he got his Mil for Athens in HIS first impulse (second of M/A), it's flipped now. Not that this is very important 'cause I have plenty of Stuka and IT bombers. I sent a crappy GE bomber (from the initial setup) with AtA 1 to ground strike, and the crappy 2 factors Greek plane downed it, at least this time I saved the pilot.

[brian brian]

It looks like … a war!

[Dabrion]

Aww too bad, having to face the 2 MTN + CW corps kinda sucks. For 2213/2314, these are good invasion hex for corps (esp. MAR) to threaten Athens immediately. They are usually not first-choice setup hexes, esp. if you have built up in Albania. That means they are out of ZoC (even from Athens) and auto invasions during surprise. But that option is gone now..

There won't be much blitzing in Greece, so a Div would have sufficed for that purpose, the mot. movement will a liability in the long run. If the CW carriers are committed already, I would bring surface out and eliminate the possibility of CW shore bombardment and their supply [7-3 is the wp CW INF yes?]. After that you could think again about landing the Marines in 2314 to threaten Athens from 2 hexes+paras+shore, despite the bumps in the North. Keep the good BB around for that move, consider screening them.. not depending on how much surface CW has in the EMed. Breaking the bumps north of Athens will only be feasible if you bring something to soak up the losses (Banzai!! China-style).

Control and evicting oversea supply in the EMed is the most important thing, though. That would take the CW air on Crete out of the picture (and render any invasion/paradrops there an auto attack).

Good luck

[AlbertN]

About Yugoslavia to me is quite normal to try to align it.
At worst - when Soviets claim Bessarabia, it's better to deny Vienna Diktat and immediately declare war to Bulgaria and Hungary and seize them (Hungary has a red factory).
I'd still lose minor units - yes. But partisans are much less there; and that gives me a Romania that does not require a minimum of garrison in its homeland.

After all Yugoslavia and Romania are the relevant ones due to their HQs.
Yugo's factories are Blue meanwhile Hungarian is Red.
Their troop quality is overall low, thus suited as garrison duty at the best safe desperate situations.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

I'm not so sure an immediate attack on Hungary and Bulgaria is a good idea. Each time you align or DoW one of them, the Soviets get to keep a resource they'd otherwise send you. Worse, they can use it themselves, so if you attack them too early, you're looking at a bigger USSR. Personally, I think that denying them the extra units is worth lowering your own production a tad, especially if you don't have enough resources to run all of yours and Italy's factories, whcih will be fairly likely for some time if you're playing with oil.

[Dabrion]

ORIGINAL: Cohen

About Yugoslavia to me is quite normal to try to align it.
At worst - when Soviets claim Bessarabia, it's better to deny Vienna Diktat and immediately declare war to Bulgaria and Hungary and seize them (Hungary has a red factory).
I'd still lose minor units - yes. But partisans are much less there; and that gives me a Romania that does not require a minimum of garrison in its homeland.

After all Yugoslavia and Romania are the relevant ones due to their HQs.
Yugo's factories are Blue meanwhile Hungarian is Red.
Their troop quality is overall low, thus suited as garrison duty at the best safe desperate situations.

Agreed.

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

I'm not so sure an immediate attack on Hungary and Bulgaria is a good idea. Each time you align or DoW one of them, the Soviets get to keep a resource they'd otherwise send you. Worse, they can use it themselves, so if you attack them too early, you're looking at a bigger USSR. Personally, I think that denying them the extra units is worth lowering your own production a tad, especially if you don't have enough resources to run all of yours and Italy's factories, whcih will be fairly likely for some time if you're playing with oil.

The resource lost from the pact are compensated once controlled. Only Hungary and the Baltic states are not compensated. So if you are pushing for alignment it is a good idea to get it done faster rather than later. Esp. with Bulgaria, as you can use the Rumanians to do it the dirty work and RU has an alignment option if you go with the inverse Vienna Diktat resolution.

[Extraneous]

Just to keep everyone on the same page.

The Yugoslavia gambit vs. The USSR claims Bessarabia


The Yugoslavia gambit.
Germany makes a DoW on Yugoslavia (30% chance of adding a US entry chit) on an impulse before the USSR can claim Bessarabia from Rumania.

This allows Germany to align Rumania making it an active minor country.

This stops the USSR from claiming Bessarabia because the USSR can only make the claim if Rumania is neutral.

All Rumania resources are now supplied to Germany. Rumania no longer supplies oil to Italy.

Rumania be able to be able to move up to half of its on map units outside Rumania.

This reduces the resources the USSR supplies in the Germany-USSR trade agreement by one resource.


Hungary may also be aligned on another friendly impulse making it an active minor country. Hungary would then be able to move up to half of its on map units outside Hungary. This would also reduce the resources the USSR supplies in the Germany-USSR trade agreement by one resource.


When Germany makes the DoW on Yugoslavia the USSR should not align Yugoslavia. Because the USSR would then control the Yugoslavian units. This would allow Germany to either retain a build point or receive an extra oil from the Germany-USSR trade agreement.



The USSR claims Bessarabia
Rumania allows the claim
if Rumania allows the claim, it stays neutral and Bessarabia becomes part of the USSR for all purposes until the USSR controls no hex in Bessarabia. At that point, Bessarabia again becomes part of Rumania. The USSR can not declare war on Rumania until the USSR is at war with Germany.

Allowing the claim immediately reduces the resources the USSR supplies to Germany by 1 (see 5.1 Trade agreements).


In the next Axis declaration of war step, Hungary and Bulgaria make demands on Rumania for Transylvania and South Dobruja respectively. Germany, as mediator, must either allow both claims or deny both.

If Germany allows their claims:
• Transylvania becomes part of Hungary for all purposes. Germany can declare Hungary aligned with Germany during
any later Axis declaration of war step.

• South Dobruja becomes part of Bulgaria for all purposes Germany can declare Bulgaria aligned with Germany during
any later Axis declaration of war step.

• Germany can declare Rumania aligned with Germany during any Axis declaration of war step if Germany has declared war on the USSR (not if the USSR has declared war on Germany), is at war with Yugoslavia, or controls Belgrade.


If Germany denies their claims:
• Hungary stops supplying its resource to Germany until Hungary aligns with Germany. Germany can declare Hungary aligned with Germany during any Axis declaration of war step after Germany has declared war on the USSR (not if the USSR declares war on Germany). No more than 1 Hungarian unit can ever be outside of Hungary;

• Bulgaria can never align with Germany but the USSR can declare it aligned with the USSR during any later Allied declaration of war step;

• Rumania becomes aligned with Germany as a full Axis ally during the next Axis declaration of war step. It need no longer keep half of its units inside Rumania - they can all leave.

Rumania denies the claim
If Rumania denies the USSR’s claim, the USSR must immediately declare war on Rumania.

Germany can enforce a peace between Rumania and the USSR during any peace step if:
• no hex of Rumania, outside of Bessarabia, is Soviet controlled; and

• Germany and the USSR are not at war.

If Rumania and the USSR come to peace:
• Rumania again becomes a neutral minor country;

• the USSR keeps control of Bessarabia provided there is a Soviet land unit anywhere in Bessarabia; and

• Germany can declare Rumania, Hungary and Bulgaria aligned with Germany during any later Axis declaration of war steps.


If the USSR conquers Rumania:
• Germany can declare Hungary aligned with Germany during any later Axis declaration of war step; and

• Bulgaria can never align with Germany but the USSR can declare it aligned with the USSR during any later Allied declaration of war step.


While Rumania and the USSR are at war:
• Germany can declare Hungary aligned with Germany during any Axis declaration of war step; and

• Bulgaria can not align with either Germany or the USSR.

9.8 Aligning minors
If a neutral minor can align with your major power (see 19.6 Soviet border rectification , 19.7 Axis minor countries and 19.8 Allied minor countries), you can declare that it is aligning with you. You can only declare one minor aligned with your major power in each friendly impulse. Your major power controls a minor that aligns with it exactly as if another major power had declared war on it.

5.1 Trade agreements
Germany-USSR
USSR and Germany start the 1939 scenario with a trade agreement in place to exchange German build points for Soviet resources.

In each turn, Germany must lend lease 2 build points to the USSR while the USSR must supply Germany with 7 resources (2 of them must be oil).

These numbers can change if circumstances vary. For each of:
Finland;
Latvia;
Estonia;
Lithuania;
Bulgaria;
Hungary;
Rumania; and
Turkey,
that an Axis major power either declares war on or aligns with (see 9.7 Controlling new minors, 9.8 Aligning minors and 19 Minor countries), reduce the number of resources the USSR must supply by 1 (minimum 0). Reduce the ordinary resources before you reduce any oil resources.

Reduce the number of resources by 1 from the turn that Finland allows a USSR claim on the Finnish borderlands (see 19.6.1 Finland) and by 1 from the turn that Rumania allows a USSR claim on Bessarabia (see 19.6.2 Rumania). Note that each minor country only reduces resources once even if claims are allowed and the minor is declared war on or aligned.

For each of Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Sweden or Yugoslavia that the Soviet Union declares war, or a Soviet controlled unit enters, Germany may choose to either keep one of the build points it would normally send to the Soviet Union, or receive an extra oil from the Soviet Union, each turn. This choice cannot be changed later.

The USSR and Germany stop supplying these resources and build points once the Nazi-Soviet pact is broken and keep them for themselves, even the turn the pact is broken.

Rumania
While neutral, Rumania supplies Germany with 2 oil resources and its other oil resource to Italy, each turn.
13.3.3 US Entry Actions
20. Axis declares war on (Place chit in Ja pool if Japan declares war, the Ge/It pool otherwise. Rolled once per city, major power, neutral minor country or search):
Poland, Spain, Turkey or any American country 12(1chit added and 20% chance of adding another US entry chit);
Belgium, Finland, Rumania, Sweden or Switzerland (80% chance of adding a US entry chit); or
Other minor (30% chance of adding a US entry chit).

[brian brian]

I thought I should point out that all this decision making in the Balkans frequently must follow an Allied decision first.

If the Axis pass on the "No Bessarabia" option on their second impulse of the game, they then have to wait and see if the Russians are even going to demand Bessarabia, leaving some of the diplomatic/political initiative in Russian hands here.

I know a very, very good WiF player who simply doesn't demand Bessarabia as the Russians. There are upsides to that…one being that many German players won't even plan for the possibility, and then have to scramble a bit in the Balkans, kind of like Hitler did. There are downsides, sure; the Odessa factory won't be railing out, for just one.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

Yes, but even as German production is staying constant, Soviet production is going up, because they usually don't have enough resources with their treaty commitments to run all their factories. And even a few extra units can mean the difference between life and death for the Russkies. Why let them build them?

[paulderynck]

Because you decide that the return for preventing the Odessa factory from railing to Siberia along with the additional Russian casualties on the far less defensible southern front - are worth it.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

Oh, sure, but you get that in your pocket as soon as you get Rumania, by whatever method. I was talking about aligning or attacking Hungary and Bulgaria, which give you no such benefit on the first turn of the war with the Soviets.

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear.

[composer99]

Let's assume 3 scenarios, for the purpose of crunching numbers.

(For convenience, all turns will be abbreviated by first letter of each month and last two annual digits - so January/February 1941 turn is JF41)

For all three scenarios, the USSR begins SO39 with the following lending & production:
- lending 5 resources & 2 oil to Germany
- therefore, 22 resources & oil for its own use
- let's say no oil rule so we don't have to subtract

For all three scenarios:
- no USSR shenanigans in Middle East
- Germany declares war on USSR in MJ41
- alignments/DoWs by Germany that don't affect the lending are not mentioned (e.g. aligning Rumania after a Bess claim, or Finland after a borderlands claim).


SCENARIO 1 - "Baseline"
USSR sets up to demand Bessarabia and does so on the earliest opportunity in SO39
Germany accepts the demand and then accepts the Hungarian & Bulgarian claims
USSR demands Finnish borderlands in JA40, Germany accepts
Germany aligns Hungary and Bulgaria in JF41

USSR production in this scenario is:
SO39 23 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 5.75 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
ND39 23 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 5.75 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
JF40 23 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 11.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
MA40 23 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 11.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
MJ40 23 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 11.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
JA40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
SO40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
ND40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
JF41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
MA41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp

Total bp produced = 130


SCENARIO 2 - "No Bess"
USSR sets up to demand Bessarabia
Germany declares war on Yugoslavia and aligns Rumania before USSR can make the borderland claim in SO39
Germany aligns Hungary in SO39 to get around the Yugoslav mountain defence
USSR demands Finnish borderlands in JA40, Germany accepts
Germany aligns Bulgaria in JF41

USSR production in this scenario is:
SO39 24 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 6 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
ND39 24 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 6 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
JF40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
MA40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
MJ40 24 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12 bp +2 bp from Ge = 14 bp
JA40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
SO40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
ND40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
JF41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
MA41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp

Total bp produced = 133


SCENARIO 3 - "Align Yugo"
USSR sets up to demand Bessarabia and does so on the earliest opportunity in SO39
Germany accepts the demand and then denies the Hungarian & Bulgarian claims
Germany declares war on Hungary & Bulgaria right away (i.e. in SO39)
USSR demands Finnish borderlands in JA40, Germany accepts

USSR production in this scenario is:
SO39 25 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 6.25 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
ND39 25 res+oil at 0.25 PM = 6.25 bp +2 bp from Ge = 8 bp
JF40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
MA40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
MJ40 25 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 12.5 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
JA40 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
SO40 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
ND40 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
JF41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp
MA41 26 res+oil at 0.5 PM = 13 bp +2 bp from Ge = 15 bp

Total bp produced = 136

USSR's production multiple is low enough that the extra resources from early action in Rumania/Hungary/Bulgaria don't amount to much. One or two extra infantry corps could make the difference for the USSR, but I wouldn't count on it.

I think this reinforces the need for the USSR to engage in a Middle East campaign to bulk up its production, especially in an oil game where it ought to save an oil each turn, and that can impact its production in 1940 (especially because war in the Middle East means spending some of that oil).

[Numdydar]

Very nice work. Thanks so much.

[Dabrion]

I concur with ~@3BP gain/res until '41 Barb. Going along with that result, denying Hun+Bul claims will gain RU the equivalent of an ARM corps, a fortification, a piloted Tupolev.. or (hint: best option) 6 saved BP to be spend on '42+ forcepools or 6xMIL. In essence this will make a difference, but *not* a difference that matters (doesn't help the quality of the defense or in spawning GBA). Why, because the flaw is in the quality of RU early force-pools, not quantity.

Also consider: You get a garrison for Greece(Yug+SS MTNs and Yug+Rum CAVs), Bulgaria (Rum MTN+Rum MIL) and Hungary (Rum remainders) for free and can still bring (from '43 on) 2xHQI + ARM + 2xMECH + MOT + 2xFTR + LND to any theatre you want. Partisans are zoomed out and you can tend to serious business. You also gain 2 more factories.

[brian brian]

No time to absorb Composer99's post right now, but I wanted to point out something else, if you have never tried the "No Bessarabia" gambit as the Axis.

Under the RaW7 rules, if the Germans do this, Italy will end up fighting for a turn without any Oil.

When the Germans align Rumania, they get all 3 Oil resources; 1 no longer goes to Italy.

Italy can not be lent Oil by Germany until it is an active Major Power.

For Italy to accomplish anything useful on the turn it Declares War on France or the CW or both, it is going to use some Oil Dependent units, and probably re-organize them at the end of the turn.

At that point, it can re-org 2/5 of an oil = one HQ-I, or four SUBs, or two FTR-2 and one LND-3, or whatever combination you want. More than that, and their only Oil is used up.

So if they used a lot of fleet, air, and motorized ground assets, they have some tough decisions to make.

The next turn, Germany can loan them some Oil of course. But it doesn't arrive until the Production Phase and is not available for re-organizing units that turn.

So the result of all this is that if Italy has grand plans to enter the war when Germany aligned Rumania on the first turn, they will have to watch some of the best parts of their armed forces do nothing for a turn. If Italy is just running a Sitzkrieg in the Mediterranean while it builds a Luftwaffe, this is OK, but in other Axis strategies, you have to be prepared for this.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

Oh, sure, but you get that in your pocket as soon as you get Rumania, by whatever method. I was talking about aligning or attacking Hungary and Bulgaria, which give you no such benefit on the first turn of the war with the Soviets.

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear.

I wasn't clear either. I meant Rumania with Bessarabia as part of it. You don't get that if you concede the claim and the Russians get the extra resource.