Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

Operation Expanding Horizons

July 5, 1943

A few months ago, I took a medium-size RN SCTF to within 8 hexes of Sabang without being detected. I lingered there for a few days to confirm it wasn't just a fluke. So, he hasn't secured his western perimeter. Alright then! At next opportunity, a raid. This is that opportunity: Hornet and Wasp are repairing at Sydney, and I'm waiting for some things in SOPAC. I also want to draw his attention to his weak point. I have no intention of gunning hard for Palembang, a la that CanoeRebel game from a year or so ago, but if I can make him think Sumatra/Malaysia are vulnerable right now, that's a strategic win for me. Less defending all the other places.

I've known his air power has been heavily concentrated in CENTPAC, SOPAC, and SWPAC, with a small contingent in Burma. I figured his air power in the Singapore + 25 hexes region to be very weak. Maybe 3-4 Sentai of fighters, with 1 each at Sabang/Medan, 1 probable at Palembang, and maybe some smaller units scattered between the Andamans and the lower Burma coast (Tavoy, etc.). I've sighted Helens, Idas, and Marys on ASW, probably based out of Singapore and Palembang. Jakes based near Medan, but not enough as my subs are routinely working in the Medan/Georgetown area and not always spotted.

The base situation is below. 15 hexes out from Medan, I can set city attack target. I had expected to be sighted here, as my CV TFs are not that small, what with MKB being based out of Java. I'm not. I briefly (for 1 day) consider striking Palembang instead, but decide that I wouldn't wipe out more than 210 points of Oil anyway and Medan is a safer target that accomplishes the same strategic goals. Plus, keeping Palembang at full 900 Oil means I has to use its port and Oosthaven to pull it all out, which is a logistics headache for him. He can keep it, I'll just sink as many TKs as I can via sub.



Note that several key bases are not built up. Even those that are built up, I have reason to believe they're built for "just in case" and not actually in operation, as he's built everything everywhere to SPS levels.

[Lokasenna]

Expanding Horizons - July 8, 1943

After several buggy SNAFUs with City Attack settings, I'm unable to get my SBD-5 unit set to attack. So I set them to a small portion of search and Naval Attack instead, hoping to maybe catch some TKs. Part of the Palembang thoughts were to catch and burn the TKs there, but I don't need to do that.

So the raid goes in... looks like he has some search after all. I think I'm snooped here by a Helen out of Malacca/Singapore, on Nav Search instead of ASW. A Jake and a Dinah are also sighted on search. The Jake is likely at Medan itself...

[Lokasenna]

A light CAP! Looking good so far. Just Oscars, even if it is a fast model. The full raid goes in, every plane available. Excellent!

[Lokasenna]

Ah, the good stuff...

Morning Air attack on Medan , at 46,76

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 41

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 72
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 32
SBD-3 Dauntless x 70
TBF-1 Avenger x 112

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 1 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 6 damaged

Oil hits 77

[Lokasenna]

Air Losses...

[Lokasenna]

Expanding Horizons - Aftermath

127 points of Oil appear to have been damaged. It showed as 125 points on July 9, but ticked up to 127 by July 11. It's held steady there for over a week, so I assume this is the new actual level of production. So what's that mean?

Even if he's only able to get this Oil back to Japan until July 1, 1944, that's still 454,660 fewer points of Oil he'll have. Which is:

454,660 less Supply (via 10% from Refinery, 90% from Fuel->HI)
409,194 less Fuel
409,194 less HI
11,366.50 fewer 1E fighter planes

Combine this with the Supply I forced him to spend on repairs at Palembang, plus the fact that Miri is still at 262(38) / 262 (38) - I don't know why he repaired the Refinery - and Tarakan damaged 11 points in the SST/USMC grab, and Magwe down to about half (I don't have enough bombers here to burn it down completely, I have too many in SWPAC right now)... I'm hoping that I'm applying economic pressure for early 1945, when I'll need to make fast progress. Unfortunately, unless he tells me, I probably have no way of telling for sure how badly his pools of planes/supplies will be hurting. I'm just hoping that I'll be fighting understrength units come crunch time.

[Lokasenna]

On my withdrawal, my CV TFs are spotted a bunch. I withdrew due west at first before heading for home. He got a lucky sub-based FP sighting on my guys to the WNW of Carnarvon about a week later, so he knows I went back to Australia.

On July 9, I got SIGINT that CV Akagi was heading for Babeldaob. First true SIGINT sighting of KB in this game. I feel I've been unlucky, but this timing was great. It meant I didn't need to fear KB being near my guys on the way home, although I was a bit wary as I was approaching Australia - he could have been lying in wait between Christmas IO and Exmouth and I wouldn't have known it, so I gave this a wide berth.

CVs are a bit thirsty now, but will make Perth tomorrow (July 21, 1943). I will refuel and head for Melbourne/Sydney, where I'll repair my System damage before the next op. Hornet should be able to rejoin her sisters for that one. It will still be 2 or so months for Wasp.


CV Lexington, the first Essex, has arrived along with the first 2 CVLs, and they'll help with invasion coverage. I may fit them entirely with Hellcats...

[Bullwinkle58]

I'm jealous. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm jealous. [:)]

I think my math might actually be wrong. Fuel trades for HI on a 1:1, which means over 11,000 1E planes - not 5,600.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm jealous. [:)]

I think my math might actually be wrong. Fuel trades for HI on a 1:1, which means over 11,000 1E planes - not 5,600.

Unless it has been changed, the stock manual says each HI centre needs 20 resources and 2 fuel and produces 2 HI points and 2 supply.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm jealous. [:)]

I think my math might actually be wrong. Fuel trades for HI on a 1:1, which means over 11,000 1E planes - not 5,600.

Unless it has been changed, the stock manual says each HI centre needs 20 resources and 2 fuel and produces 2 HI points and 2 supply.

Exactly!

[Lowpe]

Nice raid![&o] So 15 hexes out is the ideal search arc to spot carriers attempting this maneuver in mid 43? Did you run your ships in with no naval search active or restricted?

Those worthless 20mm AA guns that Japan has would have come in quite nicely here against your divebombers I think? At what altitude did they release their bombs at? Seems to me that there was very little AA present.

Disappointing to see a full sized sentai not defending better-preventing more hits. I guess it was the cream of your pilots against mediocre Japanese pilots.

Anyhow, well done.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Nice raid![&o] So 15 hexes out is the ideal search arc to spot carriers attempting this maneuver in mid 43? Did you run your ships in with no naval search active or restricted?

Those worthless 20mm AA guns that Japan has would have come in quite nicely here against your divebombers I think? At what altitude did they release their bombs at? Seems to me that there was very little AA present.

Disappointing to see a full sized sentai not defending better-preventing more hits. I guess it was the cream of your pilots against mediocre Japanese pilots.

Anyhow, well done.

I think the big thing was that I had 72 Hellcats on escort vs. only 40-some Oscars. His CAP reaction time to the raid was poor, here's the full CR:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Medan , at 46,76

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 41

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 72
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 32
SBD-3 Dauntless x 70
TBF-1 Avenger x 112

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 1 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 6 damaged

Oil hits 77

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
16 x SB2C-1C Helldiver releasing from 4000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb, 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb
14 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
28 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb
13 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
23 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb
18 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
54 x TBF-1 Avenger bombing from 5000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb
12 x SB2C-1C Helldiver releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb, 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb
12 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb
5 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb
2 x SBD-3 Dauntless releasing from 4000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb
4 x SB2C-1C Helldiver releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 1000 lb GP Bomb, 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
70th Sentai with Ki-43-IIb Oscar (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 21 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 5000 and 36750.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes

Note no radar, and how only 6 of his planes were airborne to begin with. I think he was on a low % CAP setting - maybe 50%, judging from 14 on standby, and the 21 scrambling. Given that he shot down 11 and I shot down less than that, I'd say our pilot quality was probably around the same. If he hasn't fiddled with the 70th Sentai yet... IIRC, it's a decent unit to start the war. They were using his most modern Oscar model, and he doesn't seem to be invested in the Tojo, so this is at least a first rate unit even if it's not his best pilots. He likes the Oscar.

Time to target was 36 minutes, time for full intercept was 28.

I would have preferred to have set my target from ~22 hexes out, which is 2x full speed movements of 8 + 6 hexes for the strike. I completely expected to be detected at my 15 hex distance on Day 1.

I was running no naval search - all strike units were set to range 0. Given that the full KB was very recently in SOPAC, and our rumble around Merauke a few months ago, I expected him to have very little active in the area. His subs are mostly deployed in the Pacific - I've seen a few off Perth, and once or twice off Ceylon, but that's it. Oh, and one near Karachi.

[Lowpe]

Thanks for the combat report....very interesting!

Some of the divebombers did get low.

Rear bases like this, you can have a hideously high percentage of planes flying CAP, if only 0 range, and not build up fatigue too badly, and on the plus side, you throw of Tracom pilots pretty quickly. On the down side, the high percentage CAP gets exhausted quickly leaving you vulnerable to wave type attacks, but that is not a problem here. 20K is too high too.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks for the combat report....very interesting!

Some of the divebombers did get low.

Rear bases like this, you can have a hideously high percentage of planes flying CAP, if only 0 range, and not build up fatigue too badly, and on the plus side, you throw of Tracom pilots pretty quickly. On the down side, the high percentage CAP gets exhausted quickly leaving you vulnerable to wave type attacks, but that is not a problem here. 20K is too high too.

Don't the planes get worn out flying high % CAP for several turns, and doesn't that also lead to higher Op losses?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks for the combat report....very interesting!

Some of the divebombers did get low.

Rear bases like this, you can have a hideously high percentage of planes flying CAP, if only 0 range, and not build up fatigue too badly, and on the plus side, you throw of Tracom pilots pretty quickly. On the down side, the high percentage CAP gets exhausted quickly leaving you vulnerable to wave type attacks, but that is not a problem here. 20K is too high too.

Don't the planes get worn out flying high % CAP for several turns, and doesn't that also lead to higher Op losses?

Yes.

In this battle though even double the number of Oscars were not going to stop 80 Hellcats and 200 bombers from putting some hurt on the oil. Japan just can't defend everything, and even if they did see something in advance, what would you guard with your best, Palembang or Medan?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks for the combat report....very interesting!

Some of the divebombers did get low.

Rear bases like this, you can have a hideously high percentage of planes flying CAP, if only 0 range, and not build up fatigue too badly, and on the plus side, you throw of Tracom pilots pretty quickly. On the down side, the high percentage CAP gets exhausted quickly leaving you vulnerable to wave type attacks, but that is not a problem here. 20K is too high too.

Don't the planes get worn out flying high % CAP for several turns, and doesn't that also lead to higher Op losses?

I have heard that a lot...under the right circumstances it is doable. I have had a squadron of Oscars set to 90% CAP, 10% rest for months and months and not lost a plane. They started with 50 exp, 70 air. It is at a large airbase with good aviation support flying below 15K at 0 range.

Looking at their stats pilot fatigue is 10%; plane fatigue averages 10% or less. Steady stream of experienced fighter pilots. 100% of planes in service.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks for the combat report....very interesting!

Some of the divebombers did get low.

Rear bases like this, you can have a hideously high percentage of planes flying CAP, if only 0 range, and not build up fatigue too badly, and on the plus side, you throw of Tracom pilots pretty quickly. On the down side, the high percentage CAP gets exhausted quickly leaving you vulnerable to wave type attacks, but that is not a problem here. 20K is too high too.

Don't the planes get worn out flying high % CAP for several turns, and doesn't that also lead to higher Op losses?

I have heard that a lot...under the right circumstances it is doable. I have had a squadron of Oscars set to 90% CAP, 10% rest for months and months and not lost a plane. They started with 50 exp, 70 air. It is at a large airbase with good aviation support flying below 15K at 0 range.

Looking at their stats pilot fatigue is 10%; plane fatigue averages 10% or less. Steady stream of experienced fighter pilots. 100% of planes in service.

That answers my questions thoroughly. Thanks Lowpe!

[JocMeister]

I had most of my squadrons on 70-80 CAP at 31k ALT. Never any problems with FAT as long as I kept range at 0.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I had most of my squadrons on 70-80 CAP at 31k ALT. Never any problems with FAT as long as I kept range at 0.

The problem occurs in wave style attacks...a high percentage CAP gets worn out very quickly and isn't present in later bomber waves, but it does fight the first wave very strongly. That can be good or bad depending upon circumstances. But if you have ample radar warning you get the same effect with lots of planes ready.