Air to Air combat rolls random?

[Lord Drakken]

I have played a couple of hundred impulses now. It sure seems to me that my air to air combat die rolls are way out of whack and do not seem to follow a random statistical 2D 10 spread of results at all.

I am getting so many destroy results it is absolutely insane. At rough parity destroy result should occur 25% of the time. I am currently getting more destroy results than clears, aborts, and no results put together.

It has happened enough times that this seems statistically impossible. I would think the rolls would begin to average out over time but it has been very consistent.

My question is this. Is it possible that the random number generator for air to air is messed up while other rolls seem to be working fine?

For now I am going to manually roll all air to air battles.

[paulderynck]

Speaking of Confirmation Bias, we've been getting almost nothing but Blank results.

[Joseignacio]

ORIGINAL: Lord Drakken

I have played a couple of hundred impulses now. It sure seems to me that my air to air combat die rolls are way out of whack and do not seem to follow a random statistical 2D 10 spread of results at all.

I am getting so many destroy results it is absolutely insane. At rough parity destroy result should occur 25% of the time. I am currently getting more destroy results than clears, aborts, and no results put together.

It has happened enough times that this seems statistically impossible. I would think the rolls would begin to average out over time but it has been very consistent.

My question is this. Is it possible that the random number generator for air to air is messed up while other rolls seem to be working fine?

For now I am going to manually roll all air to air battles.

It depends also of the odds, if you are playing in a +5/-5 or more it can be normal. Are the rolls extreme, say 1+2=3 or 10+8=18? or you get many "destroy"s but rolling a 15?

[Lord Drakken]

The rolls are extreme. I am going to write down the next 50 or so results. We are rolling tons of 3, 4, 18, 19 results. The odds have been rough parity between forces from +2 to -2 mostly.

However, we have noted it doesn't matter what the odds are because we are getting so few marginal results. Those extreme rolls kill even when you are at -4 odds.

[paulderynck]

50 results is a meaningless sample. Tests for randomness in a collection of data often require 500,000 samples.

[joshuamnave]

Actually it requires a much smaller sample size than that. 150-200 dice rolls will get you a statistically significant sample.

I also feel like A2A die rolls are out of whack, although I would have said they favor the underdog, and then immediately dismissed it as observational bias. So I would be interested in seeing the results. I also feel like GS rolls and naval search rolls are weighted high, and of course ground combat rolls never go the way I want them to either. So it's probably just observational bias.

[Centuur]

Agreed. 200 is enough to get a statistically sample which should do. It won't be a perfect match, but it will be enough...

[paulderynck]

Or it will be enough for ~67% of all possible cases of the random sample contents for that size of sample... 95% of the time... with an assurance factor of... etc.

Just like political polls.

[gw15]

use this web site....http://statistics.about.com/od/Inferent ... -Error.htm

[Viktor_Kormel_slith]

I wonder if Steve have introduced secret code to cheat the air combat rolls [;)]. In our current game we decided to select dice rolls becouse the extravagant series of combat results. We wrote the computer rolls and they were very suspicious. Incredible very good rolls for USA, very bad for Japan and Germany. It was terrible overall for me, the axis player[:@]. In fact, I would like to see animated dice on my screen and choose when stop them, it would be less suspicious![:D]

[Joseignacio]

ORIGINAL: Viktor_Kormel

I wonder if Steve have introduced secret code to cheat the air combat rolls [;)]. In our current game we decided to select dice rolls becouse the extravagant series of combat results. We wrote the computer rolls and they were very suspicious. Incredible very good rolls for USA, very bad for Japan and Germany. It was terrible overall for me, the axis player[:@]. In fact, I would like to see animated dice on my screen and choose when stop them, it would be less suspicious![:D]

To be true, I have ften had the same experience, ..., only with real dice. There are famous and infamous WIF sessions of this kind.