::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjoy (J)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You'll run HI and LI as long as input stockpiles in the base last. If you have open hex sides you can still flow in inputs. In-base production of any Resources or Oil stop. Chungking in stock gets 420/day supply I believe. Not sure in yours.

I found a HUGE difference in defense there between Level 6 and Level 7 Forts. I'm still holding out in March 1943 with Level 5 because I started with Level 7. He has 200-ish plane bombing missions daily for almost a year now, and daily bombardments. I lose 300-400 men a day, mostly disabled, but have survived about 8-10 ground attacks. He has a very large stack invested in Chungking. The resurrection rule is your friend.

IMO trying to CAP this base is a bad investment in limited supply. He can trash the runways pretty easily if he wants and then it's the VPs and the planes gone. I'd build Forts, even if he's already in the hex.

Yeah, if the Japanese can put in massed air attacks then Chungking will fall eventually. The question remains with PDU off is can he afford to do that? With PDU on its a no brainer but I just don't know how PDU off plays out in this case.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yeah, if the Japanese can put in massed air attacks then Chungking will fall eventually. The question remains with PDU off is can he afford to do that? With PDU on its a no brainer but I just don't know how PDU off plays out in this case.

PDU only affects type, not quantity, right? With no CAP any bomb truck will do. I still get Lillys most every day, mixed with Sallys and a lot of Helens. Nates escort, plus others.

My experience with Lokasenna is bombing just puts on pressure to total non-disabled shooters. It's not nothing, but so far not decisive. Even LCUs with zero supply fight at 25%. If you have enough LCUs the 25 percents add up. Forts provide even leverage across the whole LCU base. Terrain on top of forts. But the gap between level 6 and 7 isn't linear. It's a big defensive advantage.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You'll run HI and LI as long as input stockpiles in the base last. If you have open hex sides you can still flow in inputs. In-base production of any Resources or Oil stop. Chungking in stock gets 420/day supply I believe. Not sure in yours.

I found a HUGE difference in defense there between Level 6 and Level 7 Forts. I'm still holding out in March 1943 with Level 5 because I started with Level 7. He has 200-ish plane bombing missions daily for almost a year now, and daily bombardments. I lose 300-400 men a day, mostly disabled, but have survived about 8-10 ground attacks. He has a very large stack invested in Chungking. The resurrection rule is your friend.

IMO trying to CAP this base is a bad investment in limited supply. He can trash the runways pretty easily if he wants and then it's the VPs and the planes gone. I'd build Forts, even if he's already in the hex.

Think of this. He has 3-4 Tojo groups. Total.

His other good sweeper is the George. He has one group of those. It's been in So Pac recently.

After that it's Ki-43 IIIa which is a pretty good plane, but as a sweeper a bit fragile. The A6M5c which is solid but slow against P-40K and Hellcats.

The point here is not necessarily to hold forever at Chungking. It's to use the situation to potentially continue to swing the pilot skill and experience levels to the Allied side while also gaining time without much lost.

On top of that I've not been able to get close to building forts here for a year since supply has never gotten above 22k. It always hovers there and once it gets near 25k it gets shipped out to units, which I'd actually prefer. I'm sure the forts will not last long, but it is now May 43, so even if it lasts another 2-3 months I'm pretty happy with that.

As for the zombie troops, so far I still have too many original units of 300-500AV that are intact with good experience, so the zombies are heading to the far West to try to build up for later (if I can coerce them to take replacements there). My problem is stacking limits getting overrun as I shift troops to move in fresh units.

[pontiouspilot]

I have followed both AARs with great interest....thanks for the effort. With the Indian campaign winding down give us your strategic thoughts going forward....if you get a chance.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You'll run HI and LI as long as input stockpiles in the base last. If you have open hex sides you can still flow in inputs. In-base production of any Resources or Oil stop. Chungking in stock gets 420/day supply I believe. Not sure in yours.

I found a HUGE difference in defense there between Level 6 and Level 7 Forts. I'm still holding out in March 1943 with Level 5 because I started with Level 7. He has 200-ish plane bombing missions daily for almost a year now, and daily bombardments. I lose 300-400 men a day, mostly disabled, but have survived about 8-10 ground attacks. He has a very large stack invested in Chungking. The resurrection rule is your friend.

IMO trying to CAP this base is a bad investment in limited supply. He can trash the runways pretty easily if he wants and then it's the VPs and the planes gone. I'd build Forts, even if he's already in the hex.

Think of this. He has 3-4 Tojo groups. Total.

His other good sweeper is the George. He has one group of those. It's been in So Pac recently.

After that it's Ki-43 IIIa which is a pretty good plane, but as a sweeper a bit fragile. The A6M5c which is solid but slow against P-40K and Hellcats.

The point here is not necessarily to hold forever at Chungking. It's to use the situation to potentially continue to swing the pilot skill and experience levels to the Allied side while also gaining time without much lost.

On top of that I've not been able to get close to building forts here for a year since supply has never gotten above 22k. It always hovers there and once it gets near 25k it gets shipped out to units, which I'd actually prefer. I'm sure the forts will not last long, but it is now May 43, so even if it lasts another 2-3 months I'm pretty happy with that.

As for the zombie troops, so far I still have too many original units of 300-500AV that are intact with good experience, so the zombies are heading to the far West to try to build up for later (if I can coerce them to take replacements there). My problem is stacking limits getting overrun as I shift troops to move in fresh units.

It's up to you. I'm mainly saying that spending supplies on CAP there isn't going to help the defense as much as other things.

If he once puts down the CAP long enough to trash the AF he can keep it trashed cheaply and eat up internal supply. He can close off the hex sides and then no more flow to the country-side. Depending on what other producing cities you hold those guys in the bush may be toast. If Chungking falls no more resurrections until you take it back, if ever.

I built Level 7 from December 8 until they were done. I retreated to Chungking, so no flows to the bush. If I can hold forever that's something north of about 2000 VP I don't have to recover somewhere. If I hold forever I tied down about 1/3 of the IJA on the map for more than a year. More like two years. Whether I can hold forever is an open question.

I didn't get an India invasion to divert him. I got a western Oz invasion a little later which I withstood. Not sure they balance, but I'd rather fight in Oz. I do have time problems though, with a lot of real estate on islands needing to be re-taken and 1943 moving right along.

I still do and always will hate China.

[Alfred]

Bullwinkle is essentially correct.
 
Whilst Obvert has not absolutely maximised his Chinese opportunities, he has done a good job overall in China.  To the point that the investment of Chungking has only come about in April 1943.  That is a good outcome even if the strategic opportunity costs have not been fully exploited by Obvert.  The ROI for Japan in China has not been positive.
 
Alfred

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


It's up to you. I'm mainly saying that spending supplies on CAP there isn't going to help the defense as much as other things.

I get what you're saying, but you're not taking into account that I can't build any forts there. The supply will never be above 25k long enough to go from 6 to 7. Nothing is up to me anymore in terms of the basic structure of the defense there. I can leave, or I can stay and fight. Those are the choices.

Having CAP up eats much less supply than letting him bomb! In its occasional appearance (I didn't have CAP up for a good several months) it forces him to perhaps rearrange his AS and air groups placements, thus opening up opportunities elsewhere. What's not to like? Even if he eventually beats down the CAP, I'll still be fighting over my base, keeping my pilots, while his expert Tojo groups are whittled away.

There are no a lot of bases built for big sets of air groups near Chungking, especially considering the Tojos are only 6/8 in range with tanks. Again it makes him consider committing more to China at a time when those units could be used elsewhere and also costs supply.

If he once puts down the CAP long enough to trash the AF he can keep it trashed cheaply and eat up internal supply. He can close off the hex sides and then no more flow to the country-side. Depending on what other producing cities you hold those guys in the bush may be toast. If Chungking falls no more resurrections until you take it back, if ever.

The Japanese have bombed with 300-400 bombers a day for over a year in China. That costs a lot in supply and HI (lost airframes). I want that to continue. If the CAP can make him commit more, lose more good pilots and hold the base for longer, what's wrong there? Am I missing something?

Playing Japan I didn't realize this until the B-29s started hitting. Supply has to be held back and stored by the Japanese for when that happens.

I built Level 7 from December 8 until they were done. I retreated to Chungking, so no flows to the bush. If I can hold forever that's something north of about 2000 VP I don't have to recover somewhere. If I hold forever I tied down about 1/3 of the IJA on the map for more than a year. More like two years. Whether I can hold forever is an open question.

I didn't get an India invasion to divert him. I got a western Oz invasion a little later which I withstood. Not sure they balance, but I'd rather fight in Oz. I do have time problems though, with a lot of real estate on islands needing to be re-taken and 1943 moving right along.

I still do and always will hate China.

I like China. From both sides.

I never had the supply to build those forts because I didn't retreat to Chungking early. I like bleeding the Japanese on the way and making them fight for it. It's about more than VPs. Even if I lose Chungking I'm confident I can push back into China. I still hold Sian/Lanchow, Wenchow (not sure why he's not taken that yet) and will for a good while.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Bullwinkle is essentially correct.

Whilst Obvert has not absolutely maximised his Chinese opportunities, he has done a good job overall in China.  To the point that the investment of Chungking has only come about in April 1943.  That is a good outcome even if the strategic opportunity costs have not been fully exploited by Obvert.  The ROI for Japan in China has not been positive.

Alfred

Which strategic opportunity costs?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yeah, if the Japanese can put in massed air attacks then Chungking will fall eventually. The question remains with PDU off is can he afford to do that? With PDU on its a no brainer but I just don't know how PDU off plays out in this case.

PDU only affects type, not quantity, right? With no CAP any bomb truck will do. I still get Lillys most every day, mixed with Sallys and a lot of Helens. Nates escort, plus others.

My experience with Lokasenna is bombing just puts on pressure to total non-disabled shooters. It's not nothing, but so far not decisive. Even LCUs with zero supply fight at 25%. If you have enough LCUs the 25 percents add up. Forts provide even leverage across the whole LCU base. Terrain on top of forts. But the gap between level 6 and 7 isn't linear. It's a big defensive advantage.

Well in our last campaign Viberpol just put a pasting on my Chinese butt every day. It was not the supply that did us in but the massive disruption. He lost a few deliberate attacks but the daily bombings got the disruption up so high that one day they all just surrendered.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I get what you're saying, but you're not taking into account that I can't build any forts there. The supply will never be above 25k long enough to go from 6 to 7. Nothing is up to me anymore in terms of the basic structure of the defense there. I can leave, or I can stay and fight. Those are the choices.

Having CAP up eats much less supply than letting him bomb! In its occasional appearance (I didn't have CAP up for a good several months) it forces him to perhaps rearrange his AS and air groups placements, thus opening up opportunities elsewhere. What's not to like? Even if he eventually beats down the CAP, I'll still be fighting over my base, keeping my pilots, while his expert Tojo groups are whittled away.

There are no a lot of bases built for big sets of air groups near Chungking, especially considering the Tojos are only 6/8 in range with tanks. Again it makes him consider committing more to China at a time when those units could be used elsewhere and also costs supply.

There are a ton that can go to 8 or 9. Or do you mean he hasn't built them up?

ORIGINAL: obvert

The Japanese have bombed with 300-400 bombers a day for over a year in China. That costs a lot in supply and HI (lost airframes). I want that to continue. If the CAP can make him commit more, lose more good pilots and hold the base for longer, what's wrong there? Am I missing something?

Playing Japan I didn't realize this until the B-29s started hitting. Supply has to be held back and stored by the Japanese for when that happens.

I like China. From both sides.

I never had the supply to build those forts because I didn't retreat to Chungking early. I like bleeding the Japanese on the way and making them fight for it. It's about more than VPs. Even if I lose Chungking I'm confident I can push back into China. I still hold Sian/Lanchow, Wenchow (not sure why he's not taken that yet) and will for a good while.

With proper settings, he won't lose that many bombers to flak or ops. Maybe Chinese flak in DBB is different. But against Bullwinkle, even if we assume that every single one of my flak and ops losses for my LBs of all types is in China... we're talking about a grand total of 817 planes. 73 single engine, 744 double engine. That's 56,196 HI. And while the bulk of that is Ops losses, and the bulk of those are in China, it's not all... the early SRA conquest is probably where about half of my flak losses and a small portion of my Ops losses are. This is as of 3/27/1943 - a similar timeframe as your game. 56K HI, in the scheme of things, is a small number. If anything, losses would be heavier elsewhere.

Supply usage... I haven't run any numbers [:'(] Although Tracker has a nice "Supply/day" per airgroup so here's my total: 852 per day. I typically run 20% rest and at 4000 feet lately, but I will need to stand them down periodically due to morale. Also, weather will cancel some raids. So I'd say they fly 5 days out of 7. I don't know when I started bombing Chungking daily, but even at a very liberal estimate that's still less than 500,000 supplies.

Then again, I've gone less into R&D supply expenditures that I've seen other people do, so I can afford other expenditures like this one. If it nets me a bunch of VPs... *shrug* it does get me VPs daily from dead Chinese, but I probably wouldn't judge it worth it unless I take the city eventually.


And as for that... Bullwinkle's right, about the bombing. It puts extra pressure by reducing the number of capable squads each day and for each attack. Once (...if...) forts drop further, that pressure will begin to snowball. At least, that's what it did against the AI.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


It's up to you. I'm mainly saying that spending supplies on CAP there isn't going to help the defense as much as other things.

I get what you're saying, but you're not taking into account that I can't build any forts there. The supply will never be above 25k long enough to go from 6 to 7. Nothing is up to me anymore in terms of the basic structure of the defense there. I can leave, or I can stay and fight. Those are the choices.

I don't have exact numbers for you, but IF he closes the hex sides he does you a favor. You fill out internal supply for your residents, from organic 420/day plus whatever LI/HI you can make from stored inputs. You can also fly in supply if you have Ledo. I don't think you do? If you don't you might want to get it.

Lokasenna did me the honor of bombing out my LI (to 8) and the HI had no fuel almost immediately, so it's 420/day. But if you're at 22,000ish on supply and he closes the sides you might be OK to go to Level 7. It might not take as long as you think depending on what you retreated back to the capital.

Having CAP up eats much less supply than letting him bomb!

Does it? Including supply to pull in replacement airframes? If he's bombing intensively for supply denial he's bombing the AF. And the runways damage will ground some of your planes, which will become ops losses.

In its occasional appearance (I didn't have CAP up for a good several months) it forces him to perhaps rearrange his AS and air groups placements, thus opening up opportunities elsewhere. What's not to like? Even if he eventually beats down the CAP, I'll still be fighting over my base, keeping my pilots, while his expert Tojo groups are whittled away.

Allies don't care a whit for fighter pilots. I've got thousands and thousands I'll never use in 1943. You do care about losing Hellcats and Corsairs.

There are no a lot of bases built for big sets of air groups near Chungking, especially considering the Tojos are only 6/8 in range with tanks. Again it makes him consider committing more to China at a time when those units could be used elsewhere and also costs supply.

Chengtu? There are several others. He hasn't made a 100% push in China, as he diverted to India. But the bases are there.

If he once puts down the CAP long enough to trash the AF he can keep it trashed cheaply and eat up internal supply. He can close off the hex sides and then no more flow to the country-side. Depending on what other producing cities you hold those guys in the bush may be toast. If Chungking falls no more resurrections until you take it back, if ever.

The Japanese have bombed with 300-400 bombers a day for over a year in China. That costs a lot in supply and HI (lost airframes). I want that to continue. If the CAP can make him commit more, lose more good pilots and hold the base for longer, what's wrong there? Am I missing something?

Yeah, losing Chungking. [:)] There are few VP hits worse on the entire map.

Playing Japan I didn't realize this until the B-29s started hitting. Supply has to be held back and stored by the Japanese for when that happens.

I built Level 7 from December 8 until they were done. I retreated to Chungking, so no flows to the bush. If I can hold forever that's something north of about 2000 VP I don't have to recover somewhere. If I hold forever I tied down about 1/3 of the IJA on the map for more than a year. More like two years. Whether I can hold forever is an open question.

I didn't get an India invasion to divert him. I got a western Oz invasion a little later which I withstood. Not sure they balance, but I'd rather fight in Oz. I do have time problems though, with a lot of real estate on islands needing to be re-taken and 1943 moving right along.

I still do and always will hate China.

I like China. From both sides.

I never had the supply to build those forts because I didn't retreat to Chungking early. I like bleeding the Japanese on the way and making them fight for it. It's about more than VPs. Even if I lose Chungking I'm confident I can push back into China. I still hold Sian/Lanchow, Wenchow (not sure why he's not taken that yet) and will for a good while.

You're probably right. He shouldn't have gone to India. And you're probably safe from auto-vic now. But losing Chungking is a haymaker. You can't hand-wave it away on a VP basis. It's a stunning bag for Japan.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

If it nets me a bunch of VPs... *shrug* it does get me VPs daily from dead Chinese, but I probably wouldn't judge it worth it unless I take the city eventually.

I figure it's a steady -5-10 VPs a day I start out with, every day, for a year so far. That's a sunk xAK every day just to stay even. It's pressure all right.

[witpqs]

At 22,000 there is no construction of fortifications above level 6. The required supply on hand is either 25,000 or 30,000 (forget which) to build above level 6 forts, below that level no such construction takes place.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

At 22,000 there is no construction of fortifications above level 6. The required supply on hand is either 25,000 or 30,000 (forget which) to build above level 6 forts, below that level no such construction takes place.

I'm aware. That's why I said closing the sides is a good thing. It allows full stockpiling as flows to the bush cease. Garrison fills out internal supply from 420/day organic plus remaining LI/HI, and then the 22,000 begins to grow toward 25,000. Whether he has enough stored inputs to keep LI/HI producing as forts build I can't say. But if he's contemplating a big CAP he'd better have a lot of stored inputs too.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


It's up to you. I'm mainly saying that spending supplies on CAP there isn't going to help the defense as much as other things.

Having CAP up eats much less supply than letting him bomb!

Does it? Including supply to pull in replacement airframes? If he's bombing intensively for supply denial he's bombing the AF. And the runways damage will ground some of your planes, which will become ops losses.

Yes, it does!! Consider the numbers.

I can lose up to 1,000 supply points a day from 300-400 2E hitting the base. I cannot lose that much from replacing 1E fighters at 12 supply per airframe. It costs less than 10 supply a day to fly the actual CAP. So if I replace 10 airframes a day that's 120 supply. That's a lot of airframes and I won't do that every day.

I'd say even if I did replace airframes instead of moving units out to India to do the replacements, then flying them back in, I wouldn't spend more than 100 supply a day, even to run 100-150 fighters on CAP here. That's way better than letting him bomb away, losing the supply from the AA guns and the hits to the field, day after day. When you consider I also get my pilots kills and experience and he loses a bunch of his, it's a no brainer.[:)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

I have followed both AARs with great interest....thanks for the effort. With the Indian campaign winding down give us your strategic thoughts going forward....if you get a chance.

While some players have very definite goal about strategy and outcomes, I'm not as experienced on the Allied side and therefore don't know the advantages and pitfalls of the various routes and ideas other than through other game AARs. I do know what it feels like on the Japanese side. I know you never feel like you have everything covered, and that in 43 you're dying to know where the Allies will strike first.

I'd like to try to exploit these things with a bit of deception and continue the gentle pressures of movement through So Pac and Cent Pac. The small movements can turn into sustained and successful campaigns if they're numerous enough, and if I can add the same kind of pressure to West OZ and into the DEI, plus in the CBI and even in the North Pacific it could both veil the real direction of main thrusts and reap unexpected rewards dependent on Japanese reactions.

So if that can be called a strategy that's where I am right now. One thing I can say for sure is that I'd like to avoid a direct assault on Burma. As I've learned in the India campaign, indirect pressure can often result in the impression of unsustainability in other areas, and if I can push into some area that compromises the Japanese position in Burma, then those investment in forts, field building and troops on the ground may have to be abandoned or redirected.

--------------

I have an experiment going in China that I wish I'd started 6 months ago, which is to build Kashgar and supply it through India in order to replenish and build some big healthy Chinese Corps. If that works I want to drive into Northern China, near Manchuria, and even try to get into Manchuria to possibly lower the troops numbers there through combat, get another front open as a strain on the Japanese resources and hope for an early Russian activation. A big dream now, so first I have to build the army. I have about a year as I see it to make about ten big Corps worthy of a sustained fight. The replacements are there, but are the supplies going to be enough and will they build that quickly? I don't know yet.

If I use units averaging 200AV with few devices other than infantry and support, I would need another 600 each of infantry and support to fill them out. Then the other 100-200 for guns and mortars. I've just started at Kashgar last week and have 350 supply there now, two C-47 groups totaling 40+ planes a day flying supply in, and I'll build up the fields on both sides to keep the supply and decrease ops losses. The investment is three base forces and maybe later up to 200 C-47s from India. Nothing other than shattered units from China.

[Lokasenna]

I don't think you stand much of a chance of getting all the way to Manchuria based on an air bridge from Kashgar alone - not even with the (meager) supply generation from Urumchi.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Yes, it does!! Consider the numbers.

I can lose up to 1,000 supply points a day from 300-400 2E hitting the base.

This is the basic number I disagree with. He won't get 300-400 bombers per day over Chungking, and if you have supply for AA they won't do that kind of damage. At least in my experience playing stock. It depends on where you have placed your limited Chinese AA assets too. If the garrison is big enough to defend the city a huge amount of your available supply is stored inside your LCUs where it can't be bombed. As production dwindles this becomes even more the case. It's produced and it's absorbed the next turn. That doesn't get you the Level 7 of course, but it does prevent him from burning all your supplies.

CAP costs 1/3 of a supply point per plane per day. If you fly 150 planes that's more than 10 supply/day.

And you can--I think without checking later-war extended ranges for your models (I don't have any yet)--fly out to India for replacements, but you leave the damaged behind to be bombed. And he's going to bomb the AF and not Ground if he wants to burn supply.

I cannot lose that much from replacing 1E fighters at 12 supply per airframe. It costs less than 10 supply a day to fly the actual CAP. So if I replace 10 airframes a day that's 120 supply. That's a lot of airframes and I won't do that every day.

I'd say even if I did replace airframes instead of moving units out to India to do the replacements, then flying them back in, I wouldn't spend more than 100 supply a day, even to run 100-150 fighters on CAP here. That's way better than letting him bomb away, losing the supply from the AA guns and the hits to the field, day after day. When you consider I also get my pilots kills and experience and he loses a bunch of his, it's a no brainer.[:)]

OK. I'll shut up and see how you do. I have nightmares about the VP numbers myself.

[witpqs]

Stacking limits devastate supply in a besieged and heavily over stacked base. See my AAR for some info about that in Babes in Chungking.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think you stand much of a chance of getting all the way to Manchuria based on an air bridge from Kashgar alone - not even with the (meager) supply generation from Urumchi.

Well, gotta think big!

I am imagining this with an assist from supply finally coming from another source, like a landing along the Chinese coast that can link to the troops. Sometime in early 45. Basically this gives a possibility for Chinese troops to still be involved later if he keeps China cut off to the South, or that's the idea.