ORIGINAL: Aces8
Morvael if we change the AI setting will it be less likely to do this move? I saw something similar around Smolensk when I threatened an encirclement but it was in late August and I was playing on Normal. I would love to play PBEM but don't have the time so I only play A.I.
A partial solution is to save your game as a scenario, and then go and reset the directives for each major AI formation. There are two problems to this. First I'm not sure if the big shifts that Morvael mentioned are actually in the code so that this may not make difference in terms of real AI practice. Second is if you do this, you need to reset the entire arrivals/withdrawals data (which is a pain).
What I did once, and it really improved the game was wait till March 42. Make a scenario and move all the armour from AGN to AGS and then give that army new orders to attack towards Stalingrad. This solved two of my only real complaints about the AI, that it leaves the Pzrs in AGN regardless at the end of 1941 so ends up in 1942 attacking Cherepovets etc. Second, and as a result, it doesn't really concentrate its armoured forces for a decisive blow in 1942.