Pearl Harbour question for WitP designers (Matrix/2By3) and BETA testers...

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by madflava13
I remember having long debates with Byron and others about US strategy had the whole battleline been intact at war's start. This would be an interesting scenario to play out.


I agree it would be very interesting. Its one of those quirks of fate, but if you consider that if the Japanese hadnt attacked PH and Kimmels battle plan was implemented. You just might have had a complete flip in the tactical situation in the first few weeks of the war. With US ending up with all her PacFleet CVs sunk or out of commision, but with a completely intact battleline. How completely different would the first year of the war have played out. Would there be a Doolittles Raid, Coral Sea, Midway, Guadacanel?
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WPPac-46

Post by LTCMTS »

As I stated before I think WPPac-46 would have been a disaster, and not just for the CVs and CAs (Scouting Force). As I see it, the game mechanics do not need to produce multiple possible resolutions of the first turn in the game, rather that the first turn in each alternate scenario places forces in appropriate positions for the Japanese first move in line with the alternate Japanese strategy (no Pearl Harbor, Philippine bypass, etc), which is really what each variable strategy is based on, each scenario then allowing the Allied (or US or BE/NEI/French) player to execute a strategy (such as the Western defense bastion in Rainbow 4 or the "Through Ticket" "charge to oblivion" strategy of the 1920s, etc) in response to the Japanese operations. The variations in OOBs and force placement between such scenarios would be relatively minor and, as I said, no varibale parameters, game mechanics or tables would be needed. The more complex scenarios would be based around alternate start times (early 1933, early 1938, May 1942, etc) and around different OOBs ("Two Ocean Navy 1945-46, reinforced Philippines, altered Treaty limits, etc) and force placement (Truk comes to the US with the Philippines in 1899, etc), but again there should be no need to develop special tables, parameters or rules, just a different database for the scenario to extract from.
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Post by Tanaka »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
No problem with options. As long as they are options. I would think if one wanted a game that ensures a surprise PH attack, that would be a simple matter of freezing US recon for the first pulse. If there is no siteing their can not be an pre-emptive attack.

Potential PH options?

1) Historical = Dec 8th start: historical pre-conditions and losses

2) Semi-Historical = Dec 7th start: hardcode surprise first strike,but with variable results.

3) Un-historical = Dec 7th start: varible surprise, varible losses, possible pre-emptive strikes. Basically the first turn is played like any other turn except maybe some readiness/shock penalties in affect.

Personally I am with LCMTS, I dont care how many PH options there are as long as there is a "No Pearl Harbor Option" I will be happy.:)


How about a scenario option that starts a month before Dec 7 and actually allows both players to set up there forces in their own special way. In other words the beginning of the war would not be so predictable.
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Re: GREAT!!!

Post by Joel Billings »

Originally posted by Apollo11
Hi all,



GREAT!!!

There are already separate targets for Repair/Naval/Merchant shipyard !

WOW!!!

Please do ask for supply and oil storage as well !


Many thanks for answering!


Leo "Apollo11"


P.S. Would it be possible to show similar pic of Pearl Harbour as target?


When you bomb ports, you bomb fuel/supplies. I don't think this is going to change, but Kid can always add it to a wish list.
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TIMJOT
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Re: WPPac-46

Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by LTCMTS
As I stated before I think WPPac-46 would have been a disaster, and not just for the CVs and CAs (Scouting Force). As I see it, the game mechanics do not need to produce multiple possible resolutions of the first turn in the game, rather that the first turn in each alternate scenario places forces in appropriate positions for the Japanese first move in line with the alternate Japanese strategy (no Pearl Harbor, Philippine bypass, etc), which is really what each variable strategy is based on, each scenario then allowing the Allied (or US or BE/NEI/French) player to execute a strategy (such as the Western defense bastion in Rainbow 4 or the "Through Ticket" "charge to oblivion" strategy of the 1920s, etc) in response to the Japanese operations. The variations in OOBs and force placement between such scenarios would be relatively minor and, as I said, no varibale parameters, game mechanics or tables would be needed. The more complex scenarios would be based around alternate start times (early 1933, early 1938, May 1942, etc) and around different OOBs ("Two Ocean Navy 1945-46, reinforced Philippines, altered Treaty limits, etc) and force placement (Truk comes to the US with the Philippines in 1899, etc), but again there should be no need to develop special tables, parameters or rules, just a different database for the scenario to extract from.


If I am understanding you correctly then I think it would work for some alternate scneriors. I am just not sure that would work for a no PH/Philipine bypass scenerio. Unless you are assumeing the US automatically declares war in any event. If thats the case then whats the point of a no PH/PI bypass scenerio. It would work for a no PH scenerio, but how do you determine to "appropriate positions" of units. An "appropriate position for one player might be to have Kido Buhtai in home waters with the main battle fleet at the start of the war. For others it might be in the South China Sea. Still others somewhere in the Mandates.

I think for a truely accurate no PH scenerio you need a Late Nov41 start date. which would require some sort of war start variable triggers and restrictions.

Again I apologize if I am not grasping your suggestion.

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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by Tanaka
How about a scenario option that starts a month before Dec 7 and actually allows both players to set up there forces in their own special way. In other words the beginning of the war would not be so predictable.


I love that idea, but I think it would require a lot of additional programing that is outside the mechanics of the game as it is now being developed. ie; event triggers, ZOCs, attack restrictions ect.....but who knows what GG has in mind.
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Scenarios

Post by LTCMTS »

As I indicated, first, each scenario would use the appropriate database, OOB and installations from a base set. Since there will be a scenario editor, once the base sceanrio is set, such as a "No Pearl Harbor" situation in which the Japanese execute their "Decisive Battle" OPLAN with the light forces (ic. the Kido Butai, which the Japanese considered part (along with SS, CAs and DD flotillas) of the attrition forces) dedicated to attacks on the US Pacific Fleet as it made its way across the Mandates based out of Truk and the Battle Fleet held for the final act somewhere in the north Marianas in Home waters, a player can reset the assignment of forces as desired. As far as an early Novemeber start, the strategic time-distance impact on logistics and force deployment would actually prevent any substantial changes to the historical OOBs and force positioning as of 7 Dec 1941. Any major attempt to change the historical deployment would require radical changes in the event timeline at least six months or more prior to 7 Dec 1941. However, use of the editor to amend a basic sceanrio would obviate the need for special rules, event triggers, etc, etc. An example would be a basic scenario in which the Japanese bypass the Philippines and ignore US Pacific islands, while occupying the rest of French Indo China, Thailand and attacking Malaya and the NEI using historical OObs, installations, etc with no US combat envolvement (we can argue all day about whether the US would go to war to prevent the Japanese from acquiring resources needed to fight the US later on, but read on). In the base scenario, the BE/French/NEI player is going to get slaughtered, but his victory conditions will be based on how well he does not on if he defeats the Japanese. A sub-set of that scenario would include a US intervention at a time and place of the US players choosing. Multiple scenarios using different event points (15 Dec 41, Jan 42, May 42, etc) could then be generated by other players and shared with the community. Another scenario would play the historical situation, with the not so slight change of the PacFleet still being stationed at San Diego. The point is that a single base database using a common geographic reference with a scenario editor would allow the creation of alternate strategic situations from which to began the simulation without input of additional variables into the game mechanics.
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Re: Scenarios

Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by LTCMTS
As I indicated, first, each scenario would use the appropriate database, OOB and installations from a base set. Since there will be a scenario editor, once the base sceanrio is set, such as a "No Pearl Harbor" situation in which the Japanese execute their "Decisive Battle" OPLAN with the light forces (ic. the Kido Butai, which the Japanese considered part (along with SS, CAs and DD flotillas) of the attrition forces) dedicated to attacks on the US Pacific Fleet as it made its way across the Mandates based out of Truk and the Battle Fleet held for the final act somewhere in the north Marianas in Home waters, a player can reset the assignment of forces as desired. As far as an early Novemeber start, the strategic time-distance impact on logistics and force deployment would actually prevent any substantial changes to the historical OOBs and force positioning as of 7 Dec 1941. Any major attempt to change the historical deployment would require radical changes in the event timeline at least six months or more prior to 7 Dec 1941. However, use of the editor to amend a basic sceanrio would obviate the need for special rules, event triggers, etc, etc. An example would be a basic scenario in which the Japanese bypass the Philippines and ignore US Pacific islands, while occupying the rest of French Indo China, Thailand and attacking Malaya and the NEI using historical OObs, installations, etc with no US combat envolvement (we can argue all day about whether the US would go to war to prevent the Japanese from acquiring resources needed to fight the US later on, but read on). In the base scenario, the BE/French/NEI player is going to get slaughtered, but his victory conditions will be based on how well he does not on if he defeats the Japanese. A sub-set of that scenario would include a US intervention at a time and place of the US players choosing. Multiple scenarios using different event points (15 Dec 41, Jan 42, May 42, etc) could then be generated by other players and shared with the community. Another scenario would play the historical situation, with the not so slight change of the PacFleet still being stationed at San Diego. The point is that a single base database using a common geographic reference with a scenario editor would allow the creation of alternate strategic situations from which to began the simulation without input of additional variables into the game mechanics.


LCTMTS,

As I said, I understand and have no problem with the concept of useing presumptions to set up scenerios that model differing op plans ie; an attritional/decisive battle strategy instead of PH attack. However, given that the only rational for a bypass US scenerio is to obviate or delay a US entry into the war. I dont see how simply allowing the US player to choose when and where to declare war realistically models that scenerio. When is the US oob activated? Can a US player sail a supposedly "non-bellegerent fleet" to Singapore prior to DOW? Can he escort Dutch, Brit, ANZAC convoys prior to DOW? How does the AI differentiate between the differing allied commands. Besides you seem to be assumeing the game is going to support multi-player options ie; seperate US player, Brit player, Dutch player, Chinese player ect....) I have seen no indication that it will. More likely its only going to be two player Japan/Allied game with nuetrals Russia, Thialand being activated when attacked.

The only way I see of modeling a bypass US strategy within the current game mechanics (UV) and your canned/edited scenerio idea is a scenerio that pre-supposes that Japan by-passes the US and attacks Brits/Dutch only. US is presumed to have stayed out of the war, but substantially reinforces PacFleet, PI, Guam, Wake, ect..... Japan successfully completes conquest of SE Asia. The scenerio starts April/May 42 with either US or Japan declareing war for one reason or another. and take it from there.

I agree you could create any number of like scenerios that pre-supposes any number of suppositions/conditions. I however would still prefer a campaign scenerio that allowed for a number of open ended variables such as US entry. It would capture the uncertainties of war much more realistically IMO.

Regarding a Nov start date, The need for the earlier date for a non-PH scenerio is to allow for certain minor redeployments such as the placement of Kido Bhutai. Which in itself would not effect the bulk of historical deployments ect....and not require radical changes in the time line 6 months prior. The game logistic system surfices to prevent any wholesale drastic redeployements within the 1 week time span I am suggesting.
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By Pass Scenario

Post by LTCMTS »

The point, in any scenario where the Japanese do not provide an immediate causu belli, is that it does pass the initiative in the central-western Pacific back to the US and allows the continuation of the Philippines reinforcement program (though part of the reason for this program is gone with Japanese attacks against the British and NEI and the transports and aircraft are at higher risk with the limitations on using British Empire territory). The Japanese would still have some ability to track US moves in the western Pacific and through their intelligence network in the US, Mexico, Panama and Hawaii. Since the US would provide a declaration of war, between their intelligence warnings from US strategic movements and the political communications of an ultimatum and declaration of war, it is doubtful that the US would have any strategic surprise. Therefor a scenario designer can prepare the OOBs and force deployment based on known strategies and operational plans, with the historical production/industrial base adjusted as needed and execute the start of the scenario as required. In other words, while the Japanese might have had some aprehension over what would provoke US intervention, there would be little opportunity for strategic surprise on the part of the US. Since the scenario designer makes the force deployments, he can set up the scenario with the Kido Butai to initiate an attack on Pearl Harbor out of the northern Pacific upon alert of impending hostilities, base at Truk to await the US PacFleet offensive or retain it in home waters to cover the Main Body. There were sufficient light carriers and Japanese bases to put the Philippines under blockade and siege and prepare for landing operations in the outer islands to establish air bases.
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Re: By Pass Scenario

Post by TIMJOT »

[QUOTE]Originally posted by LTCMTS
The point, in any scenario where the Japanese do not provide an immediate causu belli, is that it does pass the initiative in the central-western Pacific back to the US.
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Yes, but as a theater commander one does not have the freedom to declare war. The US being a democracy and not a Junta, means that a DOW should be out of the US players hands and subject to the vagaries of politics and public opinion. I am no epert and defer to your expertise, but doesnt command staff war gamming employ the use of umpires, moderators and such to control such variables?

(quote)
----------------------------------------------------
Since the scenario designer makes the force deployments, he can set up the scenario with the Kido Butai to initiate an attack on Pearl Harbor out of the northern Pacific upon alert of impending hostilities, base at Truk to await the US PacFleet offensive or retain it in home waters to cover the Main Body.
-----------------------------------------------------

Yes but then your opponent also knows your deployments.
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No PH strike

Post by mogami »

Hi, I am setting a game based on the posts to ignore US bases and strike only the NEI and British.
Personally I think it would be a grave error to do this but we will see what results. I plan on pushing reinforcements through to PI, Guam, Wake and Midway. I'll keep you posted turn by turn so you can decide when to DOW on US.
During this period the USN was escorting UK ships and attacking (and being attacked by) German U-boats.
I think the immediate result of Japan going to war with UK and NEI would be the US Pacific assets going to war status.
I doubt the Japanese could get a suprise attack on PH. (I think the Pacific Fleet was actually going to a higher alert status on DEC 8th regardless.)

The USN will move all on map combat ships to PH or Manila. I will leave all incoming units in USA but on map LBA and LCU will be moved to increase defense for forward bases and PI. Under what conditions can US issue DOW?
(It could be followed by dawn attack on IJN fleet bases Pescadore and other bases.)
Also USN subs will be in position. USN will begin laying mines around PI and other bases.

All US flag merchant ships will begin exiting battle area on Dec 8th
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Post by Snigbert »

but who knows what GG has in mind.

Mogami knows. He's GG.
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oh bother

Post by mogami »

Originally posted by Snigbert
but who knows what GG has in mind.

Mogami knows. He's GG.


Hi, Don't start that again. Being in the test group you know better.
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Post by Snigbert »

Hi, Don't start that again. Being in the test group you know better.

But it's fun!

Ok, I'll stop.
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Post by TIMJOT »

Fantastic Mogami

Couple of things though. How are you going to prevent the AI from attacking the PI and Guam. As you know in UV the AI will attack anything within striking distance in all directions (has this changed in WitP?). Wont this become probmatic with IJN units operating around Borneo, Celebs ect.... Isnt it likely that air units set for naval attack or surface units set to react to enemy might attack detected US units in and around places like Mindanao? I guess for Guam you can make sure all IJN units in or entering the area either stand down or set not to react, but I think its going to get a little tricky in the South China Sea and South PI. Unless I am missing something.

Regarding game paremeters. I personally think that USN ships should be able to escort convoys through the SoPac ferry route to Australia, but not directly into the war zones of NEI and Malaya. My reasoning is that USN ships in the Atlantic only escorted half way accross the altantic and did not proceed into war zones around Britain, Med, N.Russia ect... Also I would say US merchant ships should be allowed to bring supplies directly into Australia, but not NEI or Malaya.

Some other possibilities to consider at you discretion

1) Some limited number of USAAF fighter units can be sent to the war zone to model a possible expanded AVG.

2) US can garrison Fiji, Gilberts, New Herbrides to model possible Lend/Lease arrangement, but only if not already attacked or occupied by IJN.

Regarding DOW. I think the Japanese would try to hold off attacking US until SE Asia campaign is complete, gains consolidated, and forces recouped. I think the US would hold off until the PI, Guam, Wake, Midway, Hawaii can be substantially reinforced and possibly not until the arrival of additional fleet units from the Atlantic, particularly the CVs. Or of course if attacked. Or you can flip a coin every 7 turns to see if FDR gets enough votes for a DOW.

OK I will shut up now. Thanks again for testing this out. Cant wait to here the results.

Regards
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Thanks for info Joel!

Post by Apollo11 »

HI all,
Originally posted by Joel Billings
When you bomb ports, you bomb fuel/supplies. I don't think this is going to change, but Kid can always add it to a wish list.
Thanks for info Joel!

I see your reasoning here but all those other targets are specifically
mentioned (as in percentages of functionality) but in port we have all
intermixed into "port" without knowing "port itself" / "supply" / "fuel"
separately...

Do you, perhaps, think something can be done about that?


Leo "Apollo11"
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US reaction to Japanese move South

Post by mogami »

Hi, The US would have moved military units to Dutch or UK bases had Japan not declared war. When the inevitable incident occurred the US would have declared war. (Or provoked a Japanese declaration. The US did want Japan to be the first to shoot but they would have stood in the path.)



"Meanwhile in 1941, the United States had been making secret military plans with the British and Dutch. Between January and March, joint staff conferences between the Americans and the British took place in Washington. They were extended in April to include the Dutch, in meetings held in Singapore. Out of the discussions came the ABD agreement, committing the conferees to jointly fight the Japanese in Asia if Japanese forces crossed the geographical line of 100° East and 10° North, which approximated the northern extremity of the Dutch East Indies. The agreement covered Japanese movement into neutral Thailand as well as invasions of British and Dutch colonial possessions. In these secret agreements, unknown to either Congress or the American people, Franklin Roosevelt committed the United States to war even if American territory or forces were not attacked.

Though the agreements were only verbal, the British and Dutch took them as an irreversible commitment, while the U.S. armed forces drew up a war plan in harmony with them that became known as WPL 46. The overall agreement was known as Rainbow 5; the part involving the Dutch was known as Rainbow (A-2). The war plans of the Americans, British, and Dutch were predicated on going to war if Japan moved southward.

When the Japanese actually crossed the prescribed geographical line on December 4, three days before Pearl Harbor, the Dutch implemented the ABD and Rainbow-5 (A-2) plans and expectantly awaited the promised help from the U.S. Navy in repelling the Japanese incursion. Thus, Americans became involved in the Pacific phase of World War II whether they approved of it or not. That the general public knew nothing of the pact and that the Roosevelt regime did not actually sign any documents involving the United States are irrelevant; the other signatories took it very seriously and expected Washington to honor the commitment. (See James J. Martin, "Pearl Harbor: Antecedents, Background and Consequences.")

The Dutch exile regime (their homeland was occupied by the Germans) obviously believed the United States would back them up: they would not dare face the mighty Japanese military by themselves. It must be emphasized again — according to the wording of Roosevelt's secret commitment and the war plan based on it, the United States was at war with Japan, de facto, before the Pearl Harbor attack even occurred.

Now, of course, according to the U.S. Constitution, the United States was not at war as a result of Roosevelt's secret commitment. In order to carry out his war commitment, Roosevelt desperately needed an incident with Japan that would win him public support. A declaration of war to stop Japanese aggression southward — in the absence of an attack on American colonial possessions or on American forces — would have been difficult, perhaps politically impossible. There would have been strong public opposition to such a war. An incident was necessary to unify the country. That is why, from Roosevelt's standpoint, the attack on Pearl Harbor was a godsend. But that is not to say the attack came out of the blue, given what the Japanese knew of American aims and strategy, and what they saw American policy doing to them."


I am not letting the AI control the game. All US airunits are stood down. All subs are moved out of path of Japanese. All Japanese Airgroups in range of US bases are stood down. Japanese CV have airgroups stood down while in range of US targets.

Japanese opening plan.

15th Army Attacking towards India
25th Army Malaya
16th Army NEI

14th Army units are being divided between 16th and 25th Army.
1 division plus 65th Bde moving to Truk for operation against Rabaul/NG

The object is to capture Malaya and SRA as quickly as possible.
Once completed 25th Army will add 1 division to 15th Army.
remaining 25th Army units to garrison SRA while 14th and 16th Armies prepare to capture PI. (after releasing another division to SouthPacific (17th Army)

17th Army objectives to secure area extending to Noumea and Port Moresby. After capture of PI 16th Army will garrision (1 division and 2 Bde) remaining units of 14th and 16th Army will be released to 17th Army (14th Army will relocate to Guam to defend bases in CenPac and provide units for Japanese Central Pacific operation to commence upon capture of Noumea.
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Post by Raverdave »

Mogami.....are you planning to extend into India?????????
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India

Post by mogami »

Hi, No actually I think I will concentrate on capturing Rangoon and then defending it as long as possible (I think Japan can safely stay in Rangoon at least into 1944) The logistics are just too difficult for Japan north of Rangoon. Japan will make Rangoon a major airfield and submarine base.
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SE Asia and US Intervention

Post by LTCMTS »

Whoa!, what references are you using? Everything I've read says that the US REFUSED to commit to deployment of forces to SEA in support of the British and NEI. We engaged in war PLANNING that supposed the commitment of US forces WHEN AVAILABLE UPON THE US BEING COMPELLED TO ENTER THE WAR (FDR'S modification of the opening to RAINBOW). The USN repeatedly refused to deploy part or all the Battle Force to the Philippines or to Singapore, despite the insistence of the Brits. Remember that all versions of US planning for a global war envisioned a more or less active defense of the eastern Pacific with a concentration in the Atlantic against Germany. The reinforcement of the Philippines was intended to DETER the Japanese from adventures in the Western Pacific so the US could concentrate on supporting the Brits in the Atlantic, the strategic fulcrum of the "Germany First" NMS (even at this point, most of the ARSTAFF, despite Stimsons' and Marshall's turn-around, were still ready to right off the Philippines). By Jan 42, due to "Lend Lease", the total available trained and equipped strategic force available to the US Army not committed to garrisons was NO MORE THAN SIX (!!) divisonal slices, and there was only enough lift to move about 20,000 as an assault element and another 20,000 as reinforcements (the Army's only partially trained amphib assault element at the time was the 1ID, with 3ID to train with PacAmphibCommand in early '42). The AAF had not even reached the 54 trained, deployable combat groups specified for the initial core hemispheric defense.
In the interim, before a causus belli comes along, the USN had already forced the Army to convoy its transports under Navy escort to Hawaii and beyond (one reason for the delay in reinforcing the Philippines, there being at least 150,000 tons stuck in western ports in Nov 41). The probability would be that the US would continue its policy of all support to Germany's enemies "short of war" and any assets not needed for that policy would reinforce the Pacific, with Hawaii, the Philippines and Panama being the priorities. Remember that all the Pacific commands were short .50 AP, .30 belted, 3" AA HE and even 75mm APHE. The other action would be "aggressive" patrolling by USN Scouting Force (ie. CVs and CAs) towards and around the Mandate, which with Halsey in command, would have proven interesting. Also remember that the US was also reinforcing the Alaska garrison, which would have drained off equipment and supplies. Finally, in 1941, the Hawaii garrison was reorganized into two triangular divisions, the 24th and 25th, "rounded out" by the two Hawaii ARNG rgts, the 298th and 299th. In early 1942, these rgts were actually demobilized and deactivated and their Japanese-American elements deported to the mainland. There should be a period of about three months in early 1942, where the 24ID(US) and 25ID(US) are represented at 67-70% efficiency/readiness.
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