Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

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mind_messing
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by mind_messing »

Then the “Unlike you I have commitments outside this forum”. Where did that come from? Why the need for that sneering comment? You know nothing about my life outside the forum.

It came from the fact that if I don't instantly respond to your posts, you're considering your point validated.
1. It was you turned the last friendly debate sour with the intended put down “You've evidently watched the Battle of Britain just too many times……” comment. Clearly from what was subsequently written there was only one of us that could be accused of that. All you came up with during the conversation was the same lazy, tired, worn out comment about the RAF on its last knees…. Then there was you – a WITP-AE player!! no less – suggesting that the Bismarck and Prinz Eugen could have been combat ready for Sealion, not to mention all the RN capital ships sunk off Crete…..

2. Then of course there was the delightful “embarrassing for you” when once again all I did was to make a comment to highlight that the RN were not going to cower in port because the enemy had aircraft – and I backed that up with actual examples. But you chose to miss the point as usual and again tried to make out I was writing some pseudo propaganda piece.
Finally I see you continue – even now – to simply ignore what I have written. As said above there are only two reasons for that and, as also said I do not think you are being stupid so……

Again, because I think you've a viewpoint colored by rose tinted glasses that prevents you from being objective when it comes to evaluating the situation.

The fact remains that a significant proportion of RN assets were based well away from the invasion zone. While that isn't "cowering in port" by any standards, it hardly strikes me as ships that are positions to interfere with a landing at the first opportunity.
Of course. Different ships different purposes. The Home Fleet as I have said a billion times would not have been used straight off and, when Sealion proves to be a total failure, they will remain where they are.

Good.
The running to Canada exaggeration was in frustrated response to the fact that whatever I write, however I express it, you keep saying I envisage a Charge of the Light Brigade, all guns blazing approach to the invasion from the Home Fleet. I have not said that, I said the exact opposite on about half a dozen occasions over the two threads.

Good.

My mere proposition that started all this off was that the RN wouldn't throw everything into the balance in the event of Sealion.
So 5% is a good chance of success yes?

Under the circumstances, yes. A 1-20 chance of knocking out a major world naval power? Well worth the gamble, even more so when you consider the relative ease that the Germans could replace their losses against those losses inflicted on the RN.
Oh and also the quite bizarre reference to the French navy:

“Now, I'm not saying the RN wouldn't have opposed Sealion, merely that I don't think they wouldn't have been been sending anything that was armed and could float against the Germans. Think less of the Yamato sailing to it'd fate, and more of the Marine National following the Fall of France”.

Why what could they have done – sailed the Dunkerque and Strasbourg up the Seine? The defence of France and the UK/Japan are a tad different – two are islands and one isn’t….

You may want to read up on the problems the Marine National caused both the Germans and the Allies after the Fall of France.

My point, which I must say I didn't make quite clear, was that the ships loyal to the Vichy French regime represented a bargaining chip that they used to come to terms with the Germans, as well as proving instrumental in maintaining their colonial holdings (or those that kept loyal to the Vichy government anyways).

The inference, then, is that assuming the worst case scenario in the event of Sealion, the British government would have some credible naval presence in the event of talks. In the grand scheme, however, this was at best a minor strategic consideration.

The more likely consideration would be to defend the colonies against other nations: read, Japan.
This would be at night so your vaunted Luftwaffe and the cowardly and quite useless RAF are not factors. In both cases - Slapton Sands and Crete, the enemy had air supremacy by the way, and in both cases the attacking units fought some distance from where they were based.

See, flip that, and that's how I view your attitude.

At the end of the day, we can beat ourselves to death objectively assessing the evidence, but I think it is far better to look at how it was view at the time: the massive British anti-invasion preparations tell us that the British leadership of the time evidently thought it was a real danger.
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warspite1
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

Again, because I think you've a viewpoint colored by rose tinted glasses that prevents you from being objective when it comes to evaluating the situation.

Okay but that is not a reason to get snotty.
Warspite: Of course. Different ships different purposes. The Home Fleet as I have said a billion times would not have been used straight off and, when Sealion proves to be a total failure, they will remain where they are.

mind_messing: Good.

But I said that from the outset over two threads on this subject!
warspite: The running to Canada exaggeration was in frustrated response to the fact that whatever I write, however I express it, you keep saying I envisage a Charge of the Light Brigade, all guns blazing approach to the invasion from the Home Fleet. I have not said that, I said the exact opposite on about half a dozen occasions over the two threads.

mind_messing: Good.

But I said that from the outset and over two threads on this subject!
warspite: So 5% is a good chance of success yes?

mind_messing: Under the circumstances, yes. A 1-20 chance of knocking out a major world naval power? Well worth the gamble, even more so when you consider the relative ease that the Germans could replace their losses against those losses inflicted on the RN.

In which case can I play you at wargames please [;)]

Under the circumstances? The circumstances were:

a) As far as Hitler was concerned Britain was beaten to the point of an annoying irrelvance
b) He has Lebensraum to accomplish before he drops off this mortal coil. That is his reason for living, his everything
c) If he loses at Sealion he has potentially lost the remnants of the Kriegsmarine, the bulk of the Luftwaffe (which has already been seriously hurt in the last 3 months +) and not to mention some of his finest, battle experienced troops

Under the circumstances a 5% chance of successs is madness as a reason to attack.
the massive British anti-invasion preparations tell us that the British leadership of the time evidently thought it was a real danger.


Interestingly I think it was Leandros who used Forbes as part of his argument and now I am using him as part of mine! The British thought there was a danger but Forbes thought the anti-invasion measures were totally over the top and he disagreed with them - he just did not believe an invasion could be successfully mounted.

Yes there was a perceived danger because you never quite know what your enemy has at the time. Munich 1938 might have different if the Western Allies knew the truth about the size of the Luftwaffe and Army - who knows?
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
mind_messing
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.
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Leandros
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by Leandros »


ORIGINAL: Leandros

Do you know the plan(s)?

Fred
ORIGINAL: WriterNotViking
He doesn't need to know them to make the point that he did.
When one calls a plan a "hopelessly flawed operational plan" I think it is fair to expect that one knows it.
Ultimately, is it really so unreasonable to say that the British would have opposed an invasion of their homeland with a determined and sustained effort
involving all branches of their armed forces? I don't think it is, and after that, arguing over which forces would have been committed and which would have been
held back to serve as leverage in negotiations becomes fairly pointless.
I don't think I have said that. You probably mix me up with the other debatante. What I have tried to say is that the British resources weren't as numerous
as they are ususally portrayed. They'd surely fight. Not the least the RN. But, they needed to be there when it happened. The time aspect was important. Warspite's
constant bickering that the crossing time was 30 hours doesn't make it so. Crossing times from the Continent were 8-15 hours depending on the departure point.
From Rotterdam and Antwerp - well you can calculate that yourself with a 5 knot speed. The main reason that all the barges should be towed was just to ensure a
steady and estimable progress.
The commanders in charge would have made those decisions, and we are not them, nor do
we share their responsibilities.
I believe most British leaders were more worried than the common soldier or citizen as shown in one of my earlier posts.

Fred


River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by mind_messing »

In which case can I play you at wargames please?

Sure, what games have a good Sealion scenario? Say what you want about me, but I'll put my money where my mouth is!

I do have an old copy of the Battle of Britian II kicking about somewhere, and there is the War in the West scenario for WitP:AE, though I think that is a '39 start.
Under the circumstances? The circumstances were:

a) As far as Hitler was concerned Britain was beaten to the point of an annoying irrelvance
b) He has Lebensraum to accomplish before he drops off this mortal coil. That is his reason for living, his everything
c) If he loses at Sealion he has potentially lost the remnants of the Kriegsmarine, the bulk of the Luftwaffe (which has already been seriously hurt in the last 3 months +) and not to mention some of his finest, battle experienced troops

Under the circumstances a 5% chance of successs is madness as a reason to attack.

a) Sure, but Britain out of the war means the sea-lanes between Germany and the rest of the world are open. That means imports of war material...
b) Sure, but there's no real rush for time. Stalin's not long after shooting most of his army officers, and the Red Army isn't even close to being up to scratch yet.
c) The surface units of the Kreigsmarine existed for an operation like Sealion: to gain local naval superiority for a short space of time to help the ground troops. If they're lost, sure, it hurts, but it doesn't really mean much either way, other than the RN can transfer more ships elsewhere.

As for losing veteran troops, there's plenty of them just chilling all over France

Of course, the Germans wouldn't know the Russians aren't really ready for war yet. Even so, to my mind, the benefits of A + C would far outweigh the costs.
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.
warspite1

I have said the same, have a look at the two threads if you do not believe me (apart from the initial "Impossible" which was then clarified in the same way as you initially said Sealion "stood a good chance" and then refined your stance.

Where we ended up differing was:

- No air superiority: I said no chance - you said 1%
- With air superiority: You said 5% - I maintained no chance unless everything went right for the Germans and wrong for the British. As we know from France 1940 that is possible, but not, in my view, over the extended length of time that that run of luck would need to continue for the invasion to happen and to then be reinforced and re-supplied.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by WriterNotViking »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.

There is a difference between "impossible" and "practically impossible". People who mean the latter frequently use the former for convenience. I'm inclined to forgive them for that, since, for practical purposes, they mean the same thing. If that is truly the crux of the argument here, then a lot of time has been wasted. Does it really matter if the operation had a 0%, 1% or 5% chance of success? None of those would be enough for a sane military commander interested in victory for his own side to commit to its execution, unless the subject was some crucial "succeed at all costs or lose the war anyway" kind of matter. Which, we may assume, it wasn't.
Calm down, dear boy! We're writers, not Vikings...
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.

Ongoing parsimonious sniping on the difference between "impossible" and "unlikely to the extreme" is not particularly conducive to discussion either, mind_messing. Would someone be egregiously wrong to say "impossible" to something that was 99.999% unlikely to occur? I'd cut 'em some slack on the language used, but that's just me, I guess.

I think that, in the unlikely event that the Germans got ashore in fighting shape, 'success' may have been redefined anyways. Would Sealion have been a success in hindsight if ze Germans managed to take and hold a few southern ports, but fail to exploit the toehold to capture London? Would the German high command have 'succeeded' if much of the southern part of England was besieged, but London had not fallen (and GB was still very much in the fight)? Would it have 'succeeded' strategically if, in fact, Britain had capitulated, but the Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine were so badly depleted that the brass ring of Barbarossa would be forevermore out of reach.

In other words, the operation could have succeeded and the outcome could have been disastrous for the Germans war aims. It all hinges on your definition of 'success', which is-and always has been-a moving target. As success or failure is so often a subjective assessment, one must consider how it may deviate from objective measures too.

Could the Japanese ever have 'won' in a war against the United States in WWII? It depends on your definition of 'win', doesn't it? Outright victory and occupation of the United States mainland by the forces of Imperial Japan? Unlikely in the extreme ("impossible").
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warspite1
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: Leandros
Ultimately, is it really so unreasonable to say that the British would have opposed an invasion of their homeland with a determined and sustained effort
involving all branches of their armed forces? I don't think it is, and after that, arguing over which forces would have been committed and which would have been
held back to serve as leverage in negotiations becomes fairly pointless.
I don't think I have said that. You probably mix me up with the other debatante. What I have tried to say is that the British resources weren't as numerous
as they are ususally portrayed. They'd surely fight. Not the least the RN. But, they needed to be there when it happened. The time aspect was important. Warspite's
constant bickering that the crossing time was 30 hours doesn't make it so. Crossing times from the Continent were 8-15 hours depending on the departure point.
From Rotterdam and Antwerp - well you can calculate that yourself with a 5 knot speed. The main reason that all the barges should be towed was just to ensure a
steady and estimable progress.


Fred
warspite1

Constant Bickering? I will put that down to your English being good - but not as good as your Swedish [:)]

8-15 hours. I do not know how you have calculated this but please confirm this is not the time taken at 5 knots(?) x the distance from the shortest point?

The tugs/barges are coming from different ports, but even those from the same port need time to form up, get in position, stay together even when lines break etc etc. This also makes no allowance for tide effects on such slow moving units.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: WriterNotViking

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.

There is a difference between "impossible" and "practically impossible". People who mean the latter frequently use the former for convenience. I'm inclined to forgive them for that, since, for practical purposes, they mean the same thing. If that is truly the crux of the argument here, then a lot of time has been wasted. Does it really matter if the operation had a 0%, 1% or 5% chance of success? None of those would be enough for a sane military commander interested in victory for his own side to commit to its execution, unless the subject was some crucial "succeed at all costs or lose the war anyway" kind of matter. Which, we may assume, it wasn't.
warspite1

You read my post from the other thread! [;)]
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.
warspite1

- With air superiority: You said 5% - I maintained no chance unless everything went right for the Germans and wrong for the British. As we know from France 1940 that is possible, but not, in my view, over the extended length of time that that run of luck would need to continue for the invasion to happen and to then be reinforced and re-supplied.

I think you're short changing the French a just a bit to say that the Germans had a good enough run of luck to beat the French but that it would run out when it can to dealing with the British.

I suppose we'll agree that Sealion could have worked given the right (abiet unlikely) circumstances?
ORIGINAL: WriterNotViking

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.

There is a difference between "impossible" and "practically impossible". People who mean the latter frequently use the former for convenience. I'm inclined to forgive them for that, since, for practical purposes, they mean the same thing. If that is truly the crux of the argument here, then a lot of time has been wasted. Does it really matter if the operation had a 0%, 1% or 5% chance of success? None of those would be enough for a sane military commander interested in victory for his own side to commit to its execution, unless the subject was some crucial "succeed at all costs or lose the war anyway" kind of matter. Which, we may assume, it wasn't.

If that was the case, why did the Germans even bother planning such an operation?

As Leandros has pointed out, it wasn't "practically impossible". The Germans had a practical plan to invade the UK. It wasn't a strong plan, but one that might have worked given the right circumstances.
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by WriterNotViking »

ORIGINAL: Leandros
When one calls a plan a "hopelessly flawed operational plan" I think it is fair to expect that one knows it.

I read his post as saying that since the Germans abandoned the plan, it must have had serious flaws. I don't think that's such an outlandish idea.
I don't think I have said that. You probably mix me up with the other debatante. What I have tried to say is that the British resources weren't as numerous
as they are ususally portrayed. They'd surely fight. Not the least the RN. But, they needed to be there when it happened. The time aspect was important. Warspite's
constant bickering that the crossing time was 30 hours doesn't make it so. Crossing times from the Continent were 8-15 hours depending on the departure point.
From Rotterdam and Antwerp - well you can calculate that yourself with a 5 knot speed. The main reason that all the barges should be towed was just to ensure a
steady and estimable progress.

If I have, I apologize. I certainly wouldn't argue that the Royal Navy wasn't stretched thin at the time. In any case, surely there would be warning of an imminent invasion before the ships actually set sail? The Germans knew something was coming well before D-Day, even if they got mixed up about where it would happen. I have to think there would be enough warning to move ships that would otherwise be too far away close enough to be able to intercept.
I believe most British leaders were more worried than the common soldier or citizen as shown in one of my earlier posts.

I don't believe this is at odds with what I said, and I see no need to contradict you here.
Calm down, dear boy! We're writers, not Vikings...
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Gentlemen,

Parsimonious bickering over the infinitesimally small chance of success (no chance versus very very very small chance of success) isn't going to convince anyone of the merits of your case(s). I think we can all agree that the operation likely would not have succeeded, but for a near-miraculous turn of events for the Germans.

That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.

Ongoing parsimonious sniping on the difference between "impossible" and "unlikely to the extreme" is not particularly conducive to discussion either, mind_messing. Would someone be egregiously wrong to say "impossible" to something that was 99.999% unlikely to occur? I'd cut 'em some slack on the language used, but that's just me, I guess.

I think that, in the unlikely event that the Germans got ashore in fighting shape, 'success' may have been redefined anyways. Would Sealion have been a success in hindsight if ze Germans managed to take and hold a few southern ports, but fail to exploit the toehold to capture London? Would the German high command have 'succeeded' if much of the southern part of England was besieged, but London had not fallen (and GB was still very much in the fight)? Would it have 'succeeded' strategically if, in fact, Britain had capitulated, but the Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine were so badly depleted that the brass ring of Barbarossa would be forevermore out of reach.

In other words, the operation could have succeeded and the outcome could have been disastrous for the Germans war aims. It all hinges on your definition of 'success', which is-and always has been-a moving target. As success or failure is so often a subjective assessment, one must consider how it may deviate from objective measures too.

Could the Japanese ever have 'won' in a war against the United States in WWII? It depends on your definition of 'win', doesn't it? Outright victory and occupation of the United States mainland by the forces of Imperial Japan? Unlikely in the extreme ("impossible").

That's a fair point. I don't think we established a standard for which Sealion is considered successful.
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




That has been my stance from the start.

There isn't anyone here why would disagree with that statement, and yet there are those who go about maintaining that it was "impossible for Sealion to succeed".

Could Sealion have succeed? Yes. Was it likely? Nope.
warspite1

- With air superiority: You said 5% - I maintained no chance unless everything went right for the Germans and wrong for the British. As we know from France 1940 that is possible, but not, in my view, over the extended length of time that that run of luck would need to continue for the invasion to happen and to then be reinforced and re-supplied.

I think you're short changing the French a just a bit to say that the Germans had a good enough run of luck to beat the French but that it would run out when it can to dealing with the British.

I suppose we'll agree that Sealion could have worked given the right (abiet unlikely) circumstances?

warspite1

Which is not my intention at all (no basher of the French here). I am talking about luck required during a particular campaign. Once the Germans had made their breakthrough at Sedan (and everything went right for them in so doing) then France (and the BEF) was finished.

With Sealion even if the miracle happens and some German troops get some kind of foothold and form a beachhead, the Germans still have a mountain to climb. Those troops need re-supply and reinforcement. Any mistakes that the RN made (Forbes was wrong damn him!!) can now be made good and this is where the kitchen sink comes into play.

It is going to take enormous luck for the barges and tugs to survive the first crossing. Back and forth again? No sorry - not going to happen imo.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: WriterNotViking

ORIGINAL: Leandros
When one calls a plan a "hopelessly flawed operational plan" I think it is fair to expect that one knows it.

I read his post as saying that since the Germans abandoned the plan, it must have had serious flaws. I don't think that's such an outlandish idea.
I don't think I have said that. You probably mix me up with the other debatante. What I have tried to say is that the British resources weren't as numerous
as they are ususally portrayed. They'd surely fight. Not the least the RN. But, they needed to be there when it happened. The time aspect was important. Warspite's
constant bickering that the crossing time was 30 hours doesn't make it so. Crossing times from the Continent were 8-15 hours depending on the departure point.
From Rotterdam and Antwerp - well you can calculate that yourself with a 5 knot speed. The main reason that all the barges should be towed was just to ensure a
steady and estimable progress.

If I have, I apologize. I certainly wouldn't argue that the Royal Navy wasn't stretched thin at the time. In any case, surely there would be warning of an imminent invasion before the ships actually set sail? The Germans knew something was coming well before D-Day, even if they got mixed up about where it would happen. I have to think there would be enough warning to move ships that would otherwise be too far away close enough to be able to intercept.
I believe most British leaders were more worried than the common soldier or citizen as shown in one of my earlier posts.

I don't believe this is at odds with what I said, and I see no need to contradict you here.
warspite1

For goodness sake.... I must write in freaking Chinese [:(][&:]

I trust the below is clearer [&:][8|]

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Now Maitland, now's your time!

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Chickenboy
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

If that was the case, why did the Germans even bother planning such an operation?

As Leandros has pointed out, it wasn't "practically impossible". The Germans had a practical plan to invade the UK. It wasn't a strong plan, but one that might have worked given the right circumstances.

Why did the Germans bother planning such an operation? Because that's what military planning staffs do-they plan for all manner of contingencies that likely will never come to pass. Witness our Plan Orange for the Pacific War. God forbid that we should have executed our War Plan Red against the United Kingdom. Just because one draws up plans doesn't mean that they will be carried out or even have a chance for success.

The Germans didn't have a 'practical' plan for invading the UK. That's not my choice of words for the plan or its likelihood of success. Better words to describe something would have been 'far-fetched', 'vainglorious' or 'long-shot'. "Practical" wouldn't be in my top-10 list of adjectives to describe this planning / goal.
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

If that was the case, why did the Germans even bother planning such an operation?

As Leandros has pointed out, it wasn't "practically impossible". The Germans had a practical plan to invade the UK. It wasn't a strong plan, but one that might have worked given the right circumstances.

Why did the Germans bother planning such an operation? Because that's what military planning staffs do-they plan for all manner of contingencies that likely will never come to pass. Witness our Plan Orange for the Pacific War. God forbid that we should have executed our War Plan Red against the United Kingdom. Just because one draws up plans doesn't mean that they will be carried out or even have a chance for success.

The Germans didn't have a 'practical' plan for invading the UK. That's not my choice of words for the plan or its likelihood of success. Better words to describe something would have been 'far-fetched', 'vainglorious' or 'long-shot'. "Practical" wouldn't be in my top-10 list of adjectives to describe this planning / goal.
warspite1

Quite so - you would have been annihilated.

And I suppose mind_messing is now going to bring up me and rose coloured spectacles?



[:D][:)]
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by WriterNotViking »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
If that was the case, why did the Germans even bother planning such an operation?

Well, they'd have to do some planning and comparing to see if it could be done in the first place. If I were to dig a little, I'd be able to come up with lots of operations that were planned but never executed because the risk to reward ratio just didn't work out. Maybe even a few that were executed regardless, but ended in spectacular failure.
As Leandros has pointed out, it wasn't "practically impossible". The Germans had a practical plan to invade the UK. It wasn't a strong plan, but one that might have worked given the right circumstances.

Forget what he said for a second. You said a 5% chance was a good enough chance of success given the circumstances (according to your own post, circumstances being the chance to knock out a world power, etc.) I'm going to disagree with you there. A 95% chance of failure means you don't go, unless your back is against the wall and you have no other options anyway. You could play out the invasion twenty times and succeed only once. Those are horrible odds by any standard. In other words, so unlikely to succeed it might as well be considered impossible.
Calm down, dear boy! We're writers, not Vikings...
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Quite so - you would have been annihilated.

Sez you. [:'(]

We could have taken amphibious troops across from Ireland by barge. That's our previously undisclosed War Plan Green.
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RE: Single Ship TF Dispersion of Large Vulnerable TFs in danger

Post by WriterNotViking »

ORIGINAL: warspite1
For goodness sake.... I must write in freaking Chinese [:(][&:]

I trust the below is clearer [&:][8|]

I'm sorry, you lost me here for a second. What I wrote was not at all in reference to you.
Calm down, dear boy! We're writers, not Vikings...
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