Operation Kutuzov 1943 (ver. 0.56)

[ogar]

This AAR is from a play-test of Operation Kutuzov, 1943 between Fulcrum (playing as STAVKA) and myself (playing as OKH). Operation Kutuzov is a scenario based on the Red Army offensive in July 1943 against the Orel salient, "the northern bulge", following the cessation of the northern attacks in the German Operation Citadel.

The scenario is one-day turns, 5 km hex, and 22-29 turns (or until enough bugs appear to break the test). The Red Army has 3 Fronts - Western Front (north), Bryansk Front (attacking from the east), and Central Front (south) - attacking OKH's 2nd Panzer Army (north and center) and 9th Army (south).

Here is an overview of the map at the beginning of the scenario. The southern edge of the front, between Novosil and Sevsk, is frozen on turn 1. Western and Bryansk Fronts launched attacks on July 12 1943 (turn 1) while Central Front (having spent the previous 7 days defending against Citadel) did not attack until July 15 1943. In the scenario, Central Front attacks on turn 3 or turn 4 or turn 5 - depends when they're ready.

[ogar]

And here's a look at the beginning of OKH's turn 1, after Fulcrum ends his opening rampage. The STAVKA player will break through, and in multiple locations. The OKH player has to patch together a defense, and assemble some reserves to counter the break-ins.


Working on the theory, "If you panic, panic early", I opt for all 3 early release of 9th Army units on turn 1. (Historically, these formations were released from 9th Army and sent north to stop the offensive - in the scenario, there are set as Theater Options, so the player can pick and choose.)
The last TO is for use when playing against the PO. DO NOT CLICK THIS TO WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A HUMAN. The PO_TO triggers a set of probability checks and events to give the PO most of the TO's and some other advantages when playing vs a human.

[larryfulkerson]

It's got 5 km hexes? Cool........I'll watch this one for sure.

[ogar]

Closing out turn 1

I do have some reserves - part of 8th Panzer Div arrives, and I rail them east to defend against the break-in by Mtsensk. I have 4* engineer "regiments" available (many of the battalion-sized engineer, artillery, armor, etc. units have been gathered into regiments or brigades to reduce counter clutter), and I start to position those to help in the defense. (* One of the four engineers are busy defending Mtsensk at the moment, so they're not really available.) I also shift the security units from the center of the map to hold the key hexes at Bolkhov and Khotinets.

In the north, I pull some units free of the front where I can - to patch up a line, and move 5th Panzer Div into position to back them up. Overall, things are not solid, but I have patched some holes and positioned reserves. I do not counter-attack, except with some air strikes. Why ? Oh, something learned from attacking into the equivalent of 12 artillery divisions plus 3 rocket divisions - supplied, and ready to defend, too.

Here's the shots at end of turn 1 :


and the north pic to show in the next post.

[ogar]

(One pic per post... sorry.) Here's the northern sector at end of turn 1, when hope springs eternal.

[ogar]

Thanks Larry.

And it has TONS of artillery - both sides -- which can be a PITA to manage, but it makes short work of IL/F. (The OKH units are dug in at IL/F on turn 1 - so all those breakthroughs are pretty impressive.)

Hope the bugs let us get a few more turns out of this version.

[larryfulkerson]

ORIGINAL: ogar

Thanks Larry.

And it has TONS of artillery - both sides -- which can be a PITA to manage, but it makes short work of IL/F. (The OKH units are
dug in at IL/F on turn 1 - so all those breakthroughs are pretty impressive.)

Hope the bugs let us get a few more turns out of this version.

What in the world is an ILF thingie?

[Meyer1]

ignore loses/fortified, I think.

[ogar]

Meyer1 is correct. I meant 'dug in at Ignore Losses and Fortified'. Sorry for the mysterious short-hand.

[ogar]

Turn 2 of this AAR, playtest of Operation Kutuzov 1943.

Last turn, I was hopeful that things were not too bad. After my opponent finished his turn, they weren't; they were worse. Mtsensk has fallen - it does fall, but turn 2 is early. (Actually the Soviet player has to capture almost all cities - excepting Bryansk area - to earn a draw or minor victory. So, when playing OKH, get used to losing cities.)

On turn 2, the STAVKA player receives several reinforcing Rifle, Tank and Mech Corps. Added to the strong forces already on map, well, you see the result. Even in the North, where the defense has pretty much held up, several of my formations have gone into reorg from the shock of the attack.

Fortunately, OKH also receives some reinforcements - the last units of 8th Pzr Div, first units of 183rd Inf. Div, AND you can see at the bottom of the image, two of the early-released panzer divisions from turn 1's TO. They are critically needed.

[ogar]

In turn 2, I focus on the Center (Mtsensk) break-through, as I can reach it with fresh units. I send reinforcements toward Bolkhov, and also to reinforce the Northern gap around Ulyanovo.

Using some of those early arrival panzer divisions, I counter-attack in the center, cutting off some spearheads and driving back the rest of the first wave of attackers. Here, I can start to seal off the gaps, and my plan is to shift some of the armor north to help Bolkhov in the next turn.

As for the Ulyanovo, and other northern sectors, it's another turn of split-and-shift where possible, dig in, and hope.

[ogar]

Turn 3 arrives with the usual basket of bad news. As you can see, I have some problems to attend. Starting from the north, it looks like I lost 5 or 6 regiments overnight -- some are huddled in the stacks by Ulyanovo (left) and NW of Bolkhov, but at least 2 regiments were evaporated.

The second red area does not look too bad -- but I suspect an encirclement is coming unless I can move some of those forces out of the gap and up from Bolkhov. Then a sector where my units actually look to be in decent shape vs the Red Army.

And then ... disaster-ville. I thought I had shaped up a decent defence line near Mtsensk. Guess not, and to top it off, my opponent has surrounded one of my few panzer regiments.

But WAIT ! There's more !!

In the south, those two little red circles do not look too menacing, but... They mean that Central Front activated on its earliest possible turn. How lucky can that guy Fulcrum get ? And he got two break-ins to my fortified line on first try. If you look closely you can see the other3 or 4 hexes where his attacks shook my units out of F status. But what worries me is the circle on the bottom left ... if he shifts units there, and breaks-through in large scale, I'm in big trouble. You can see Karachev, a major VP hex, on the RR line in the center of the image. And from there, it's only a dozen or so hexes to the Bryansk area... altogether 170 VPs plus my supply line and reinforcements' detraining site.

Well, I guess I just have to reach deep and pull some rabbits out of this increasingly battered hat.


And I do -- by shifting more units north from the southern edge, I can reinforce the Mtsensk (or ex-Mtsensk) group, I break out the panzer regiment, and knock his spearhead on the Mtsensk-Bolkhov road back a hex or two. Around Bolkov, I am lucky enough to split and shift units out of the oncoming trap, and plug that gap on the NE side of Bolkhov. In the north, I use the reinforcements from last turn (that just could not quite make it all the way) to break up his leading formations and start to fill that gap. Incomplete, shabby, but a lot better than before. And I know I do get to move up some of the artillery and armor locked in place from Operation Citadel.

[Cfant]

Well, that doesn't look too good... will be interesting to see, where you build a new frontline. Will you weaken the southern front? I guess everything east of Orel is lost, or do you plan to hold on east of the city?

[ogar]

@Cfant,

No, it does not look good. As explained below, I have to hold where and when I can. problem is -- I ain't.

I need to step back and provide a little overview on the scenario, and what can be termed, laughingly, "my strategy".

There are 8 major VP locations, marked with gold stars on the map. The purple line snaking through the map is the approximate line where the historic battle ended Aug. 5, 1943. In the scenario, the STAVKA player needs to match the historic performance just to gain a draw. For a win, STAVKA also has to take at least one of the four VP hexes around Bryansk. For OKH, that player has to hold more territory than historically.

Historically, the Red Army smashed in from the north center very quickly, and were slowly pushed back, before the eventual retreat. The real campaign centered around Bolkhov - Stalin insisted that the city was the key to the whole campaign. (I'm not sure I agree.) And after Bolkhov fell to the Soviets on July 24, the focus shifted to Orel. Orel was evacuated by the German Army steadily and completely from mid-July until Aug 2, 1943. Soviet troops entered the city center on Aug. 4, 1943. The Germans were able to salvage a large proportion of their supplies, material and personnel based in/around Orel for use in Citadel, and to be used in defending Bryansk and later, Smolensk. To make this part of the scenario, there are large bonuses for the OKH player to hold Bolkhov as long as historically, and to hold Orel as long as historically.

Additionally, the scenario has lots of Theater Options for reinforcements, early releases, re-activating Soviet artillery, etc. And these options cost VPs as well. (Back on turn 2, I opted to early-release another 3 OKH divisions in order to slow down the tidal wave. With the early activation of Central Front, I lost 40 VPs -- my 'early releases' were released with the activation, and I had spent 40 VPs for no gain.)

So, "strategy"... um, hold where I can, slow him down, smash back when I have local strength, try to gain the Bolkhov and Orel bonuses, gradually withdraw towards the fortified line along the west side of the map and hold Bryansk.

[ogar]

Turn 4
[center]
Whaddya mean !? No more rabbits in the hat ??
Go get a BIGGER hat ![/center]

There's no happy ending to this turn. It starts with usual mishaps, more break-throughs, and now encirclements of stacks of battered units. And Fulcrum is going directly for Orel.

I try to wiggle out which units I can, assemble reinforcements to crack the encirclements, patch together a defense line. All that moving has taken MPs, so I decide to hold off the reinforcements' attacks, and do a little preliminary bombarding of my own.

The big picture doesnt look too bad, does it ?

It's worse. Early turn ending after round 1.

The next post will show disaster in close-up.

[ogar]

I promised no happy ending, and here it is.

.. here's the aftermath, two stacks surrounded, one stack almost so; units not dug in because they were going to attack on round 2, artillery out of supporting mode... Oh yes, that dark red mech brigade that I underlined near the top center of the pic... it's the leading unit of 4th Tank Army (a fresh group of 8 tank brigades, 4 mech brigades, 2 motor rifles brigades... and more.) In this scenario, STAVKA does not lack for reinforcements.

[Cfant]

Well, time to go a step nearer to home... a few miles to the west, I guess. Problem will be to manage the retreat - that's why I often prefer a "hold the line" in TOAW where I would retreat in RL. Retreating units are no longer in "f" status and will be massacred.
On the other hand, it was Rommel, I think, who said: "You know if someone is a good general, if he manages to make a successful retreat." [;)]

[secadegas]

ORIGINAL: Cfant2

Well, time to go a step nearer to home... a few miles to the west, I guess. Problem will be to manage the retreat - that's why I often prefer a "hold the line" in TOAW where I would retreat in RL. Retreating units are no longer in "f" status and will be massacred.
On the other hand, it was Rommel, I think, who said: "You know if someone is a good general, if he manages to make a successful retreat." [;)]

It's common sense to agree with Rommel citation and so many other authors but i often ask myself if some general can manage to make a successful genious military retreat without a strong hierarchical political support...

[ogar]

However, in this scenario there is not much room to retreat. The northern center is one area where OKH can allow a pull back, and the Novosil 'nose' is another. However, if OKH loses either Bolkhov or Orel early, (and loses the bonus points), it really puts the OKH player in tough position.

If it hadn't been for that STUPID ! ETE, I woulda shoulda cut off some of the Soviet spearhead outside Orel with a nice counter-attack.

As I researched this campaign, one facet that struck me was how Model handled this campaign - and his bosses. A day after the Soviet attack, Hitler, of course, issued a No Retreat Order. Not a step back. Model convinced Hitler to ignore that order and allow for tactical withdrawals and counterattacks - partly because Model did those things, and then, asked for permission. Another facet was that Model had pre-prepped several defensive fortification lines inside the salient -- all the while he's going ahead with the preparations for Operation Citadel. When the Soviets broke through, there were more positions partly or completely ready 20 km back.

In the scenario, I've put in several areas away from the start line where the entrenchment level is 35 or 50%. And there are many engineer units available to boost that to 100% quickly. An example of this is in the Turn 4 image -- that line of hexes along the RR just east of Orel (with those flak units ) is one of those partially ready lines that I was trying to build up to 100%. And use as a base for counterattacking. STUPID ETE !!

If you can get units into those prepared hexes, the OKH player gains that advantage and some breathing space.
If. If the units are not shredded pulling back from the start lines; if the units are not exhausted; if the units are not eliminated with a massive Soviet over-run.

Despite all my doom and gloom, the OKH player really does have a good chance of conducting a fighting withdrawal. There's usually almost just enough OKH units to defend and/or conduct local attacks; almost enough. This is one of the items I'm looking to test in this game, and make sure the sides are balanced to allow for that "almost enough to hope" feeling.

[ogar]

Operation Kutuzov Turn 5 and 6 July 16-17, 1943

Turn 5 is much of the same. As expected the Red Army rampages through the open, undefended effects of my early turn ending. And as before I wiggle some units out of almost-entrapments, spring more units from "quieter" parts of the front, punch back at a spearhead, and try to build back a defensive position. And it appears to work...

Turn 6 (in which it looks like I lose my mind) shows the Soviets starting to run low on the impetus of the planned offensive (FINALLY !). Here's a great chance for me to continue to dig in, build back-up lines, assemble the counter-strike force, and carefully cut down on the attackers' strength.

Not a chance.
I have a nice RBC in the south to re-gain a fortified hex of the original start line. A smart player would build in the defenses, pull back the armor to reserve, and let the Soviets run into a brick wall. Not me !! I find a stack of mostly artillery, and rampage through that, then try and smash another stack of artillery and survivors from earlier RBC's. That fails, and I see I risk - yet again - having a panzer regiment cut off and destroyed. So I pull all the reserves in the south together to start smashing into Central Front. Is there a plan ? No. A strategy ? No. Okay, I open a salient so my first panzer regiment is not all by itself, but really, it was just "Hulk mad. Hulk smash." And now what ? Uhhh ?

Good news is that in other parts of the front, reason reigns and I am able to carefully pinch back leading Soviet units, yet again, wiggle some survivors out from traps, and follow that nice idea of building reserves behind a semi-solid defense.

Part of the problem is the shortage of units - by the start of OKH turn 6, the Soviets player has eliminated 5 inf regiments, 3 pz grenadier rgts, 1 panzer rgt, 2 stug abts., and over a dozen other fragments of units. There's no reconstitution in this scenario. A smart player would be pulling back to defend a smaller space, and use the armor for productive and pro-active counterattacks. As demonstrated, that would not be me.





The above pic is from beginning of OKH turn 6. I did succeed in not losing that southern panzer rgt., but I have slight problem due east of Orel, and a major headache north-east of Orel. But I am not going to worry about that until turn 7.