Help me about what you mean concerning Gydania and the CW fleet/TRS? Certainly you do not suggest the CW would bring its fleet into the Baltic?
I'm not worried about the Polish fleet...the French are already doing that work as it is. The Germans traditionally do not set up their cp's until late in S/O'39...then there is the German fleet as well...
I don't know about E. Poland either.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
Don't forget the two corps coming from the north vs Amsterdam...the canal is a river, which is negated on the surprise impulse. In the German set up there are two corp on the coast adjacent to Netherlands for that purpose.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
Help me about what you mean concerning Gydania and the CW fleet/TRS? Certainly you do not suggest the CW would bring its fleet into the Baltic?
I'm not worried about the Polish fleet...the French are already doing that work as it is. The Germans traditionally do not set up their cp's until late in S/O'39...then there is the German fleet as well...
I don't know about E. Poland either.
warspite1
No I mean putting the Polish destroyer in the Baltic and getting a crack at the convoys.
I don't know about "traditionally" (you have obviously played this a lot more than I have) but I have always put the convoys to sea at the start. If you do not then surely that compromises the later German turns. i.e. what happens if the turn ends early?
Just to work it through:
Impulse 1: Germans sail to North Sea
Impulse 2: CW sail to North Sea and Poles to Baltic.
Impulse 3: Germans declare war on Holland. Would a combined work here (to get the rest of the fleet into the Baltic) in terms of number of land moves available for Poland and especially Holland? Looks doubtful.
Impulse 4: CW land in France or Holland or they try and end turn depending on the weather and thus the chances of ending
Impulse 5: Germans sail Conv to Baltic if they have the impulse (likely) but what about Belgium and Denmark? You said that this plan, given the weather (even Rain), could likely give the Germans Denmark, Holland and Belgium by the end of S/O 1939.
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
Fall Gelb is not reliant at all on what happens in the North Sea. German activity in the North Sea is about the possibility of taking Rotterdam easy and cheap (and timely). As I recall, you had the worst die roll and still only lost 1 corp. I'm not sure what you mean by 2 corps lost?
I don't know much about the 1d10...so maybe that's why you say you want to know how the Germans can take Rotterdam? I suppose I could agree with you even on the 2d10 if I manually determined the die rolls. On average there is no problem at all for the Germans to take it, what is vexing is the extra impulse they have to dedicate themselves to do it, and possibly much more time depending on the weather/end of turn rolls. Defensive SB is awesome, but can only double the factors max. I'm glad you are playing with that option.
If the CW lands two motorized plus an infantry division in Rotterdam, it could be really hard to take, especially with defensive SB. Granted, they can probably be easily flipped and supply has a good chance of being cut on the first impulse of a turn, should the axis move first.
You need a turn of fine weather (reasonable in September, but can be fickle) and evade the RN (50% chance).
It's a very interesting strategy, but the opportunity cost is not insignificant and getting bogged down seems a very real possibility as well.
ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
Fall Gelb is not reliant at all on what happens in the North Sea. German activity in the North Sea is about the possibility of taking Rotterdam easy and cheap (and timely). As I recall, you had the worst die roll and still only lost 1 corp. I'm not sure what you mean by 2 corps lost?
I don't know much about the 1d10...so maybe that's why you say you want to know how the Germans can take Rotterdam? I suppose I could agree with you even on the 2d10 if I manually determined the die rolls. On average there is no problem at all for the Germans to take it, what is vexing is the extra impulse they have to dedicate themselves to do it, and possibly much more time depending on the weather/end of turn rolls. Defensive SB is awesome, but can only double the factors max. I'm glad you are playing with that option.
If the CW lands two motorized plus an infantry division in Rotterdam, it could be really hard to take, especially with defensive SB. Granted, they can probably be easily flipped and supply has a good chance of being cut on the first impulse of a turn, should the axis move first.
You need a turn of fine weather (reasonable in September, but can be fickle) and evade the RN (50% chance).
It's a very interesting strategy, but the opportunity cost is not insignificant and getting bogged down seems a very real possibility as well.
warspite1
Supply should not be cut so long as the RN keep a portion of the Home Fleet in the North Sea.
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Help me about what you mean concerning Gydania and the CW fleet/TRS? Certainly you do not suggest the CW would bring its fleet into the Baltic?
I'm not worried about the Polish fleet...the French are already doing that work as it is. The Germans traditionally do not set up their cp's until late in S/O'39...then there is the German fleet as well...
I don't know about E. Poland either.
warspite1
No I mean putting the Polish destroyer in the Baltic and getting a crack at the convoys.
I don't know about "traditionally" (you have obviously played this a lot more than I have) but I have always put the convoys to sea at the start. If you do not then surely that compromises the later German turns. i.e. what happens if the turn ends early?
Just to work it through:
Impulse 1: Germans sail to North Sea
Impulse 2: CW sail to North Sea and Poles to Baltic.
Impulse 3: Germans declare war on Holland. Would a combined work here (to get the rest of the fleet into the Baltic) in terms of number of land moves available for Poland and especially Holland? Looks doubtful.
Impulse 4: CW land in France or Holland or they try and end turn depending on the weather and thus the chances of ending
Impulse 5: Germans sail Conv to Baltic if they have the impulse (likely) but what about Belgium and Denmark? You said that this plan, given the weather (even Rain), could likely give the Germans Denmark, Holland and Belgium by the end of S/O 1939.
warspite1
One thing that seems clear here is that with all these combineds, even if the Germans get very lucky in Poland and get no units flipped, they are not going to conquer the country. I will need to look at Polish reinforcements and where these come in.
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Lets assume the CW sinks the German cruiser and INF div on their surprise impulse (2). That's why there is a second INF div in Kiel...Germany would do a second combined in their next impulse (3) to get another crack at it. I would use the land moves in Netherlands (4 - includes invasion) plus two for Denmark = 6 (assuming fair weather)...if rain, I might hold off on Denmark but attack Netherlands.
If we assume CW misses the loaded German cruiser on impulse 2 (Allied surprise impulse), then I would probably do a land so I could do all of the above plus something vs Poland.
I would do a naval for Germany the moment it is possible for the turn to end. It is also very possible depending on weather and circumstances that Germany never gets the cp's out there. That has happened to me.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
You mean not conquer the country in S/O'39? Yes, that would be correct...I normally do not accomplish this.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
Barbuesque: No matter what, it will be +7 plus odds. As for odds, the Germans can get 32 plus what ever air they wish to commit...which probably wont be much. What are the highest combat factor MIL or GAR or INF...maybe MOT that CW can get there?...anything else would be a waste that would be better used in France (ARM, HQ, MECH)?
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
Barbuesque: No matter what, it will be +7 plus odds. As for odds, the Germans can get 32 plus what ever air they wish to commit...which probably wont be much. What are the highest combat factor MIL or GAR or INF...maybe MOT that CW can get there?...anything else would be a waste that would be better used in France (ARM, HQ, MECH)?
I would say 14 factors. But it's behind a river.
At best I'm seeing it as a + 9 attack:
Using the 2d10 table: 1-1 attack +2, +5 from flips, + 2 from HQ support, without shore bombardment.
I might be tempted to use the ENG there. I cant remember what the CW has available? I was thinking at best a +10 (2-3 attack). Remember that if the Germans fail to take it, they can re-org and try again...the CW probably will have lost 1 or 2 units under the fail scenario.
I personally would not commit to any MOT's in Rotterdam. I don't think CW starts with any MIL ready to go. GAR are very small. I think there is a 7pt INF?...and some other weaker INF?(5?)...plus a 1 or 2 pt div. 7+5+2 lets say...is equal to 28 with SB...so yeah, I think +9. That's a 20 modified with an average roll of an 11. I'm curious what is the min. roll needed to take it, and what is the min roll needed to kill 2 CW units?
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
Jagdtigers goal is not to conquer the Poles in the first turn, but only to get the resources. He leaves Warsaw and Lodz for later. This is acceptable, since Germany can't fill it's factories in the first turn. The second goal is to take out the Netherlands and probably Denmark in the second Axis impulse.
The placement of German convoy points at start of the game in the Baltic can be done, if Germany is willing to accept losses to those convoy points. Whether or not they die, doesn't matter.
What happens in the first Axis impulse is this:
German units move with a combined impulse towards Poland and attack Katowice. A German cruiser enter the North Sea carrying a division. That's all. Even with only a few other units to screen Berlin/Stettin and East Prussia, that can be done quite well. Sure, the commitment against Poland needs to be a little more than you've setup there, but that doesn't matter. Perhaps in the first turn, the Germans can spare another INF to run over the Polish fleet. But it isn't necessary to do so.
In the Allied impulse, let the Poles do whatever they want. It's of no importance, for as long as you've got an Axis FTR hovering over the forces Germany needs to get the other resource back to the factories and did screen the approaches into Germany. If the CW or France finds and kill of the convoys, that's a nuisance, but that's all it is, nothing more. Now, if the CW finds the cruiser in the North Sea, that's bad, but that cruiser and the division are expendable.
The second Axis impulse, if the cruiser survives, Germany takes a land, attack Rotterdam with the invading division and one land unit (+21 or automatic victory), while the other Wehrmacht units take Amsterdam. Denmark is taken too. Only in storm, this action isn't possible. In Poland, Germany tries to take the second resource and moves units adjacent to Warsaw and Lodz.
This is a feasable way of running Germany in the first turn.
In the third impulse, Germany has to choose. If the impulse marker is still in the low order (since weather stayed OK), than Germany would take out Belgium. If however, weather has been poor now and the impulse before, it can only do so, if the convoys in the Baltic have survived the first turn. If not, than Germany needs to take a combined to get those convoys back into place first, because if the turn ends without having the Swedish ore going to Germany, that's too much of a blow to the German war economy.
It can be done, but this is what one could call a "high risk, high gaines" strategy. Germany can be facing a lot of losses in the first turn if the die are against them (and might not get the job done at all, if storms start blowing over the North Sea). But if it succeeds and the good weather stays, it can put the Germans at the border of France at the end of the first turn.
Those Polish reinforcements are two MIL. To be able to set those up, the Poles have to move units out of Lodz and Warsaw (except when you play with off city reinforcements). That imposes a risk too, since Germany can always opt to make a low odds attack and try to take one of those cities. With only one unit defending...
I might be tempted to use the ENG there. I cant remember what the CW has available? I was thinking at best a +10 (2-3 attack). Remember that if the Germans fail to take it, they can re-org and try again...the CW probably will have lost 1 or 2 units under the fail scenario.
I personally would not commit to any MOT's in Rotterdam. I don't think CW starts with any MIL ready to go. GAR are very small. I think there is a 7pt INF?...and some other weaker INF?(5?)...plus a 1 or 2 pt div. 7+5+2 lets say...is equal to 28 with SB...so yeah, I think +9. That's a 20 modified with an average roll of an 11. I'm curious what is the min. roll needed to take it, and what is the min roll needed to kill 2 CW units?
Do you count with the defensive shore bombardment for the attack on Rotterdam?
Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett
A government is a body of people; usually, notably, ungoverned. - Quote from Firefly
Jagdtigers goal is not to conquer the Poles in the first turn, but only to get the resources. He leaves Warsaw and Lodz for later.
I know that conquering the Poles is not the game plan - that has been clear from the start.
Thank-you for providing a clearer explanation of how you see the actual impulses working - type, targets etc. That makes things clearer in my mind.
this is what one could call a "high risk, high gaines" strategy.
Ain't that the truth. The initial comment made it sound like a German player would never choose to do anything else - indeed I think Jagdtiger made that comment (maybe wrong). But the deeper I delve and the more that is explained, the more the Germans can really lose big time using this strategy. For example:
The placement of German convoy points at start of the game in the Baltic can be done, if Germany is willing to accept losses to those convoy points. Whether or not they die, doesn't matter.
Now, if the CW finds the cruiser in the North Sea, that's bad, but that cruiser and the division are expendable.
Now factor in that taking the resources in Poland is not guaranteed (depending on dice throw) and the Lodz factory is not going to be taken (unless the luck is extreme in the Germans favour - weather, dice throw, turn length).
Factor in that you are accepting the likelihood of a loss or two in Poland when trying to take the resources alone, due to the potential loss of +1 and no automatic or possibly even 7:1 odds
Factor in that in less than Fine weather, there are also chances of taking a loss in Holland
and suddenly this is looking more and more costly by the minute.
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Factor in that you are accepting the likelihood of a loss or two in Poland when trying to take the resources alone, due to the potential loss of +1 and no automatic or possibly even 7:1 odds, and suddenly this is looking more and more costly by the minute.
And there is a US entry penalty for this as well since the entry chits are, on average, higher during '39.
Have a bit more patience with newbies. Of course some of them act dumb -- they're often students, for heaven's sake. - Terry Pratchett
A government is a body of people; usually, notably, ungoverned. - Quote from Firefly
Warspite: As I mentioned before a couple times, none of my face to face gamers do a Fall Gelb...however I choose to never do anything else. I have to say its always worked out for me, although I know that it can fail depending on bad outcomes on die rolls. The biggest drawback for me is what Orm mentioned about US entry chits.
If you make a list of all the things that can go wrong...and according to Murphy's Law will go wrong...then this is not the strategy for you. In reality some things might go wrong, while others do not. So long as the prime objectives are accomplished, the average costs involved are acceptable to me. Personally, I do not consider it "high" risk...but we all have our own definition of that, and that is another reason we all like this game.
Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC
If you make a list of all the things that can go wrong...
Well as I said at the outset I am trying to understand the plus and negatives of this strategy - so yes, making a list of things that can go wrong is of course part of that process.
In reality some things might go wrong, while others do not.
Of course, and the German player is going to be pretty aggrieved if the throws all go against him. It can happen - both for and against - and I am sure we have all been involved in games of that sort [X(]. In this game some risks have to be taken - its just the understanding of the effects that is the whole purpose of this exercise.
Personally, I do not consider it "high" risk
From what I've seen I couldn't agree less with you on that [:)] but then I have not got to the attack on Holland yet - and when all is said and done, that appears to be the make or break aspect of this plan.
..but we all have our own definition of that, and that is another reason we all like this game.
Indeed we do - and frankly it is just as annoying (probably more so) to conservatively play the % and still be on the wrong end of the luckometer. In that scenario you think to yourself "Damn it, why didn't I just go for a high risk strategy? I would still have lost - but would have had more fun doing it!" [;)]
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Right then. Now I know what the Germans are trying to achieve, what they are prepared to lose, and in roughly what order, I am ready to start again.
In order to make this an interesting exercise for me, I have altered the set-up of the Germans slightly. I am totally uncomfortable with the 75%/25% split of forces (west and east), but want to keep the essence of the German plan intact.
To that end I have ended up 65.5%/34.5% and the land and air units are split in roughly the same proportions. I have placed sufficient units in Lower Silesia to ensure that Katowice will fall if the Poles only defend with one unit. I have 3 bombers rather than 2 in the east. Just in case, the Germans have broken down a Motorised Corps and the two divisions are available in the east.
I am not sure exactly how this will pan out but I intend to run the two Scenarios concurrently:
Plan A - the Germans get the rub of the dice.
Plan B - the Allies get the better luck.
In terms of set-up, the Allied player suspects a "Fall Gelb" and so sets up with that in mind - all four TRS are in the UK (although one is placed to head for the Eastern Mediterranean if necessary).
Optionals chosen:
EDIT: The only house rule in play concerns the Allies in the Baltic. Only the RN may put ships into the Baltic and not the French.
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Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
