ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
Warspite: As I mentioned before a couple times, none of my face to face gamers do a Fall Gelb...however I choose to never do anything else. I have to say its always worked out for me, although I know that it can fail depending on bad outcomes on die rolls. The biggest drawback for me is what Orm mentioned about US entry chits.
If you make a list of all the things that can go wrong...and according to Murphy's Law will go wrong...then this is not the strategy for you. In reality some things might go wrong, while others do not. So long as the prime objectives are accomplished, the average costs involved are acceptable to me. Personally, I do not consider it "high" risk...but we all have our own definition of that, and that is another reason we all like this game.
It's a really interesting strategy, but here is my summary so far:
The benefits: Crossing the dyle line before the good weather starts again in spring or summer 1940, potentially gaining 1 turn
The cost:
+Higher US entry
+Plus 2 pilots to the CW even without playing with internment)
+Polish war dragging on with potentially higher casualties
+More vichy chits early on with Poland staying alive
As long as the polish resources are seized though, I think this is acceptable.
The risks:
+Bad weather (10% chance of storm)
+Invasion of Rotterdam failing and British reinforcing (25% chance if sending the cruiser out on the first impulse). The British could easily set up 2 motorized, an infantry division and 2 fighters in Rotterdam. It will most likely be hard to take, but will eventually fall if only to attrition.
So it's a 75% chance of significantly improving the axis position, vs 25% chance of making it worse, at the costs listed above.