Once Upon a Time (somewhere) in the West

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Amazing to see the Germans still holding together and fighting hard in May 45.

It looks like the Russians are winning the race to Berlin ...

yes to both. I'd like the Germans to be weaker but its clear that their elite units are still deadly ... just they don't have that many and I hope they are not recovering as I slowly chew them up -- do wish I had a couple of Gds Tank and Gds Rifle Armies backed by several 1000 guns ... this is not really the moment for all this finesse and carefully resting units.

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Great AAR. It usually takes 2-3 months for the Soviets to take Berlin from this point, although a lot depends on troop strength and weather. Since the EF front line is out of the Soviet Union, weather has less impact but it will still improve in mid-June. Except for passing weather fronts, the ground should now be drying for you in the west.

thank you, I was hoping for no worse than light mud till the game end. I think I need to decide what I am doing with US 1 Army, it no longer really matters if I generate a massive pocket in southern Belgium as I really need those units pressing into Germany ...

[marion61]

That was my first thought jwolf. How the heck did he keep those CV's so high this late in the war? If your the axis manpower wizard you need to come forward and give us some wisdom!

On the reverse side, how does your manpower for the Brits and Canadians look? I bet they are pretty low, but there are several things you can do to help it, if you haven't done them already-loki.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: meklore61

That was my first thought jwolf. How the heck did he keep those CV's so high this late in the war? If your the axis manpower wizard you need to come forward and give us some wisdom!

Simply flip the coin.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: meklore61

That was my first thought jwolf. How the heck did he keep those CV's so high this late in the war? If your the axis manpower wizard you need to come forward and give us some wisdom!

On the reverse side, how does your manpower for the Brits and Canadians look? I bet they are pretty low, but there are several things you can do to help it, if you haven't done them already-loki.

Some of the high German cv may be the setting 90/110 as I'm using the challenging setting for an AI game. I'm noticing in my game with Dave that the average German unit is a bit weaker than I've got used to here.

manpower pools are ok. I've scrapped almost all the AA units I can, esp the British, Canadian and French ones and will clear out the British Army Group commands if I need to.

[marion61]

My suggestion is that if your done invading, or don't need the British TF's, disband them. You have 3 of them I believe and they each give you 30k men. I also disbanded the 1st Canadian Army and assigned the two Canadian Corps to other armies. This gives the Canadians a 30k boost. Also and I disbanded all aa and arty su's for the Canadians.

[carlkay58]

From the numbers you are skating a close line with the Canadians and British. Reducing the TOE %s might help there along with streamlining the command structures by disbanding HQs. You can also ignore historical imperatives and place their units under the command of American leaders - as long as you can find good enough ones to command. About half of the US commanders are not worth anything. The HQs will give you more manpower than the AA units. The Free French are actually looking quite well off with you having only used about 26K of your replacements to date and the US is also looking very good.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: meklore61

My suggestion is that if your done invading, or don't need the British TF's, disband them. You have 3 of them I believe and they each give you 30k men. I also disbanded the 1st Canadian Army and assigned the two Canadian Corps to other armies. This gives the Canadians a 30k boost. Also and I disbanded all aa and arty su's for the Canadians.

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

From the numbers you are skating a close line with the Canadians and British. Reducing the TOE %s might help there along with streamlining the command structures by disbanding HQs. You can also ignore historical imperatives and place their units under the command of American leaders - as long as you can find good enough ones to command. About half of the US commanders are not worth anything. The HQs will give you more manpower than the AA units. The Free French are actually looking quite well off with you having only used about 26K of your replacements to date and the US is also looking very good.

thanks for the advice. Still struggling with WiTW to work out which bits of information really matter. Its clear with the Allies that overall levels of equipment and supply is not a constraint. I'm getting better at managing the few choke points (NFs, Recon planes) and from this, knowing which manpower pools really matter.

[loki100]

Turns 98-99: 12 – 25 May 1945

On these turns the weather started to improve. First was rain/light mud but the second was clear weather.

On T98, US 3 Army broke the German front around Enschede with my turn ending with the illusion of no organised German units between the Polish armoured division and Berlin.



However, to the south, 1 US Army is running into increasingly substantial resistance and 2 British was stalled in an attempt to break out.



The Germans managed a nasty counterattack at Moers recapturing the city.



Main change on T99 was the weather clearing. Equally, for the first time most German units appeared to be much weaker. The exception was the group defending around Trier.

T99 saw a combination of 3 US and 1 Canadian (the units with the blue symbol box) make more gains on the German-Dutch border. All the Germans can muster on this sector is a weak defence but its just enough to make me have to fight and to prevent a major breakthrough. But good weather is allowing my tactical air to inflict heavy losses.



On 2 British/1 US sector not such a success but then this is pinning down a lot of German units. I decided to stop 1 US' offensive southwards and switch its armoured units to support 2 British (and infantry to hold the flanks). The attempt to break out directly failed (badly) but British armour found a gap in the German defences and reached Kassel.

Of importance for my supply lines, finally managed to force the Germans back from Cologne and British armour seized Wuppertal (which was undefended).



Here's the supply situation. Clearing the Germans from Cologne will help with pushing supply to 2 British. With Antwerp and Rotterdam fully repaired and Amsterdam available, I'm landing enough to maintain the offensive, only problem is delivery, especially to 2 British Army.



VP situation is as expected. I'm taking very heavy losses in an attempt to wreck the German army and these losses are not being matched by city VP score. My hope is in the next couple of turns I might manage a pocket at the Ruhr and a decent VP haul for capturing that region.



Despite all the bombing, no real evidence of a significant dent in German capacity.

[loki100]

Turns 100-101: 26 May – 8 June 1945

Main impression in these two turns is that both armies are completely exhausted. Germans, now, apart from a few units are very low cv and mine are struggling for much more than 3 (Inf) or 6 (Arm). Main reason for this seems to be fatigue and also relatively low TOEs. Its hard with the allies but I think you really need to be more disciplined than I have been about pulling stuff out of the line to recover.

Basic pools are ok, this is for T100 (I've scrapped the British Army Group commands):



But this might show up the fatigue/TOE problem. In this respect, I've gained a lot by stretching the German lines but in turn it means almost all my army is at the front, either holding the flanks or heavily involved in the fighting [1].



Also on T101, I finally suspended the strategic air war and committed all the 4 engined bombers to rail interdiction attacks. There are few targets left and my only (very small) hope of getting to Berlin is to wreck the German army.

On T100, both spearheads (US 3 and 1 Canadian in the north, 8 Br in the south, backed by US 1) only managed very small gains. But in the north, I did cross one of the final river barriers abd in the south broadened the shoulders of my bulge, easing redeployment



The small gains of T100 paid off in T101. US 3 managed a clear breakout and swung south behind the Ruhr.



8 British had much harder fighting but I pulled back from the drive towards Erfurt and punched a hole in the German lines allowing a link up with US 3 and was able to put enough units into the gap to make it secure (hopefully).



Those gains in turn allowed the creation of a couple of new advanced depots to ease resupply.



VP situation is not improving, but I suspect this will end in a draw. The losses needed to make progress are too heavy compared to the city VP gain.




[1] – since this is not really a problem of absolute numbers, either manpower or equipment, I'm not sure I would have gained much by setting the TOE of units in Italy to <100 but that is something I might experiment with in another game.

[jwolf]

Germans are finally falling apart. This is looking like a WITE game with Axis victory, when the Red Army just crumbles completely and they don't have anything left.

How about Italy? Any progress for Anna? [;)]

[AWGreif]

If this is a game vs. the AI, how comes it did not end at turn 97?
In any case the delayed end should cost the WA 100 VP per turn, so this will be an Axis Minor Victory.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Germans are finally falling apart. This is looking like a WITE game with Axis victory, when the Red Army just crumbles completely and they don't have anything left.

How about Italy? Any progress for Anna? [;)]

Italy is completely stalled just south of Florence, so no doubt she will have plenty to say on the subject.

The difference between the allies at this stage and the Red Army is huge. End of war with the Soviets you tend to feel you no longer have an opponent who can stand up to the power house you've built, with the Allies it feels like two exhausted boxers reaching the end of their strength.

I think I needed to take more care over managing TOE/fatigue, as it is I've burnt out my army in the drive to cripple the Germans.

ORIGINAL: AWGreif

If this is a game vs. the AI, how comes it did not end at turn 97?
In any case the delayed end should cost the WA 100 VP per turn, so this will be an Axis Minor Victory.

I'm not sure to be honest, I didn't expect it to last into the summer. I should have worked out what Turn 110 meant. As it is I perhaps attacked too much in the poor weather - which is my response above - and should have saved more for the better weather in May/June.

I've made enough mistakes, esp with Paras, that I can't be surprised if it ends in a marginal defeat. I've also learnt a lot more about how to stack up VPs with the 1943 strategic air war.

[loki100]

Turns 102-103: 9 June – 22 June 1945

I'll keep this brief.

In effect the main battle front in Germany now feels like two exhausted boxers slugging it out. For me a unit with a CV>5 is an elite formation to be cherished. Most of the German units, especially where I am bombing are 1-1 ants. However, combat delays are hurting my attempts to exploit this situation.

In both turns, I attacked to reduce the Ruhr pocket (for the potential VP gain) and hammered the German lines in norhtern Germany.

After two turns of this, the Ruhr is almost captured and my armoured spearheads are past Hannover – though Berlin still seems a long way away/



VP situation is clearly heading for a German marginal vicotry.



Overall losses are fairly even



My manpower pools are ok, given there are only 8 turns left.

[loki100]

Turns 104-105: 23 June 1945 – 6 July 1945

Again a short update. In these two turns I was using US 3 Army to press onto Bremen and Hamburg, increasingly deploying US 1 Army to free up 2 British and trying to destroy the various pockets I've produced.

At the end of T104, 2 British has pushed past Braunschweig, but I have a lot of units trapped trying to destroy pockets.



Turn 105 saw substantial gains on the road to Berlin (and scarily open flanks). British Gds Armoured is only 60 miles from Berlin but I suspect my chances of taking the city depends on the strength of the German garrison. Equally I've managed to free up some more units from the Ruhr sector which will help reinforce my attempt to reach Berlin.



Should stress only 4 turns to go ...

Every bomber, apart from US 15 Air is carrying out some form of Ground attack/interdiction, especially in support of 2 British Army.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have a lot of units trapped trying to destroy pockets.

That's an ironic way to put it, since the other guys are supposed to be the ones who are trapped. [;)] But I know what you mean.

Aside from it being near the end so there's little to lose, I would think you can risk some more forward or even reckless positions since the Germans don't have (??) the strength anymore to contest you or close a pocket against you.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have a lot of units trapped trying to destroy pockets.

That's an ironic way to put it, since the other guys are supposed to be the ones who are trapped. [;)] But I know what you mean.

Aside from it being near the end so there's little to lose, I would think you can risk some more forward or even reckless positions since the Germans don't have (??) the strength anymore to contest you or close a pocket against you.

aye, I realised it sounded odd, but its how I am seeing it at the moment. At least around the Ruhr I'm able to break down into regiments (there is no way I can attack those city hexes till isolation really hurts). This will be interesting in WiTE, a well led force in an urban hex is going to take some destroying, it will seriously change the pocket generation/collapse routine.

I really am fully extended, if e-Adolf has hidden a secret reserve then I am in trouble as he could cut off my spearheads and I doubt I have enough units to save them. As it is, he seems obsessed with saving Frankfurt and Bavaria, so I *may*, just, have a chance of grabbing Berlin.

[loki100]

I made my moves for T106, captured Hamburg and Bremen and actually reached the outskirts of Berlin:



ran the end turn routine and ...



a few turns early. Guess the reason is to do with the east front moving in a slightly random manner?

I forgot to then open and take a picture of the vp score etc but the turn before I was on -170, so I lost at least 730 right at the end to take the score to at least -900.

This really adds to my lack of liking for how the VP system is working. I like and approve that the system is more political and takes account of the wider context (ie specific targets for bombing, allied need to avoid losses etc). But at the moment its rather spoiling the game. In my PBEM with smokindave, I've started to just ignore the VP system as its clear that is heading for a major defeat (EF box as much as anything else) regardless of what I try to do.

The problem is that once you start to do this, then all that carefully thought out design work becomes ineffective. If you can't win with the VP system then the VP system no longer works as an effective constraint on your planning or options.

Also last time I checked, despite the Ruhr being cut off, few cities not in ruins and so on ... the German economy is working fine.

[AWGreif]

Turn 106 means at least 9 turns later than history, and thus 900 VP penalty.
Yet the question is ... why in a game against the AI the Soviets did not reach Berlin at turn 96?
Was not intended that against the AI the end (Soviets in Berlin) would have alwuys been within the historical date?
Or it is possible, although not written in the Rules, that the AI plays with the EF box on?

Btw according to Rules, with the end at turn 96-97, this would have ended correctly as a Draw.

[whoofe]

well that's disappointing...

[jwolf]

Rats that is a rotten ending. I can't comment on the VP system as I don't know the details, but your comment:

If you can't win with the VP system then the VP system no longer works as an effective constraint on your planning or options.

sounds right on the money and it is an ironic and maybe even perverse outcome.

Still, it was great to read and follow your game and thanks very much for a great AAR.

Now the final question: what does Anna say about the whole thing? [;)]