Castles in the Sand - Spidery(J) vs MrKane(A) no MrKane please

[Spidery]

March 19th 1944

Liberators hit the oil facilities at Miri and Brunei against no CAP. Brunei oil is destroyed, Miri reduced to 41. Flak downs 3 B-24J.

Allied strikes at Lashio continue. Movement arrows suggest the forces from Taung Gyi are heading to reinforce the attack on Lashio, or start a new thrust out of Myitkyina.

Destroyers bombard Guam to no effect and get a single hit on DD Hazelwood (doubt it is significant).

A bit late but I am starting to develop Jesselton, Balabac and Tawi Tawi to provide some protection against a drive on Palawan. Also need to put some troops ashore at Tawau and Sandakan to protect against air drops. I get reinforcing units at Jesselton and Sandakan but not until the end of May which is too late.

[Spidery]

March 20th 1944

Allies bomb Miri and Brunei again. Reduce Miri to 25 oil wells remaining.

At Jolo some PBJ-1D Mitchells try a strike at a task force heading for Tawi Tawi and tangle with 20 N1K1-J. All 7 Mitchells are downed but they take out 7 of my planes[:(] and leave only 3 planes left to try and get at the Liberators that follow them. 1 Liberator downed and no damage to ships[:)].

Overall for the day, 11 planes lost for 16 Allies of which 5 are Liberators[:)].

Allies continue to bomb around Lashio.

Cruisers strike at Guam and this time the Kure 7th SNLF does fire a few shots but no hits.

Spot an Allied CVE moving South along the coast to San Francisco. I guess they arrive at Portland. Looks like no escort so I wonder if I can sneak some subs into the American coastal hexes?

A guard unit arrives at Iwo Jima so now need to evacuate some of the defense to avoid over-stacking.

[Spidery]

Allied Air Losses

Only on 4E planes has he taken any sort of a beating. Everything else I am sure he has massive pools of unused planes.

[Spidery]

Japan Air Losses

The N1K1-J is the winner! With about 1 in 6 of all planes lost.

[Lowpe]

Great stuff on plane losses!

Amazing to me how few losses you have had, on the ground, and ops. We got to figure a way for you kill Allied planes on the ground somehow...so much harder with improved AA, but he has to have airfields within range that are vulnerable to a hit and run strike.

[Spidery]

March 21st 1944

SS Angler is subject to multiple claimed hits from aircraft, near Leyte.

Allies bomb Lashio as usual.

Allies have reinforced Myitkyina and will probably be able to get round behind Lashio that way.

Allies using recce to check bases down the Siamese coast towards Malaysia, is he planning a landing?

Ki-115b to 10/45.

Receive about 20 small PB and SC boats to try and help anti-sub work in shallow waters.

Cebu airfield reaches size 8 and relieves much of the pressure on aviation support in that area.

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Great stuff on plane losses!

Amazing to me how few losses you have had, on the ground, and ops. We got to figure a way for you kill Allied planes on the ground somehow...so much harder with improved AA, but he has to have airfields within range that are vulnerable to a hit and run strike.

Not really. I'm not even sure it is an issue of the AA, it could be the bombs.

When I have struck at airfields I may damage a few planes but very few destroyed in comparison. This makes me suspect that it takes multiple hits to destroy a plane. So suppose he has 200 planes at an airfield then if I get 200 hits on aircraft only about 50 will take 2 or more hits and be destroyed. To get 200 hits I probably need at least 1000 bombs dropped which mean 250 bombers reaching the target add in about 300 fighters for escort/sweep/LRCAP the only places that could be struck would have to be in range of a level 8 or 9 airbase.

I looked at attacking Batavia but there were only a few fighters there and just a couple of SS in port (presumably under repair).

One thing now is that I have more fighter groups spare as I no longer need to protect Miri/Brunei/Tarakan. Once they finish repairing morale and re-equipping they will be available for offensive operations (although some are being diverted to protect China against B-29 raids).

[Spidery]

March 22nd 1944

Usual bombings at Lashio.

Oil wells at Miri reduced to 12.

AK Kano Maru returning to home with resources takes a torpedo near Samah 11/29/13/6. Will head for the yard at Hong Kong.

Damage SS Pickerel near the home isles. 4 hits claimed by D4Y4 against SS Angler or SS Balao near Leyte.

25 P-47D25 sweep Tapul (1 hex from Jolo) and fight 2 N1K1-J that bleed over. Both planes lost, 1 Allied plane shot down.

Allies bombard and attack at Guam. Defensive fire hits Pennsylvania, doubt that scratched the paint. Excellent result as no fort reduction[:)]:

Japanese ground losses:
473 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 31 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1884 casualties reported
Squads: 29 destroyed, 162 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 37 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 34 (2 destroyed, 32 disabled)
Vehicles lost 56 (23 destroyed, 33 disabled)

N1K5-J to 2/45.

A Ki-102c Randy factory has finished repairs.

[Spidery]

March 23rd 1944

A To'su class PB obliterated near Singapore.

A total of 10 claimed hits by aircraft on Allied subs[8|].

Usual bombing of Lashio else nothing much happening.

Ki-83 to 4/45.

SS RO-40 commissioned.

[Lowpe]

Do you have an estimated date for the Ki102c?

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Do you have an estimated date for the Ki102c?

Probably never, due to Allied action, but absent that November '44 if I am lucky.

[Spidery]

March 24th 1944

Sometime ago I sent Mogami and Chikuma out to sit between San Francisco and Pearl Harbour with all the Glen boats looking for a tanker convoy to sink. Yesterday, Mogami was spotted (6/6 detection) by an Avenger so I sent the cruisers home. Today we have the most unusual combat:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lahaina at 194,84, Range 6,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 10 destroyed
TBM-1C Avenger: 5 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Chikuma
CA Mogami

Allied Ships
CVE Petrof Bay, Shell hits 4, on fire
CVE Rudyerd Bay, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk[8D]

Two escort carriers running with no escort[8|], 1000 nautical miles from the nearest land. The damaged Petrof Bay seems to have made 8 hexes after the combat and ended in a hex with a sub that failed to attack. I have about a dozen subs that may be able to get an attack in over the next couple of days.

Anyway, nice to sink a CVE and take 28 aircraft with it[:)].

Total of 8 claimed hits by aircraft on subs in the Leyte area. These are coming from D4Y4, B7A2 and B6N2 flying from Cebu or the escort carriers so I hope they give the impression that the KB is in the area[:-].

A Lima class xAK is lost near Legaspi to SS Sand Lance along with its load of supplies[:(].

Allies bomb around Lashio.

Lost sight of the Allied carriers, in fact of all task forces near Guam. Has he just headed back for refit, did weather ground my search, or is the next strike in progress?

Myitkyina has a stacking limit of 45,000 latest reports are of 32 units, 132,000 men, 2,000 guns and 1,600 AFV[:@]. If he comes across the river will the single division there be able to hold? There is a lot of movement etc. around Lashio but, ultimately, it is intended just as a delaying point the real defense starts at Paoshan.

[Spidery]

March 25th 1944

11 claimed hits from the air on Allied subs - some of them must be real?

Found the Allied carriers, they are at Truk.

Allies attack at Guam again without any prior bombardment. Fail to reduce forts and have a Tank Destroyer battalion destroyed[8D]:

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 29919 troops, 704 guns, 666 vehicles, Assault Value = 1096

Defending force 25596 troops, 382 guns, 542 vehicles, Assault Value = 622

Allied adjusted assault: 828

Japanese adjusted defense: 5233

Allied assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 7)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
563 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 21 (2 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
708 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 51 destroyed, 30 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 33 disabled
Guns lost 38 (9 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 163 (121 destroyed, 42 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

I'm not even seeing supply drop by much, should last at least until end May. He needs to land more forces or, at least, step up the bombardments if he is going to get anywhere soon.

[Spidery]

March 26th 1944

Sub sinking sounds during turn suggest that an Allied sub has been sunk by air attack[:)].

Usual air attacks at Lashio. I moved an AA unit out to the stack in the jungle and am having a problem that it claims to be isolated without supply and has picked up a lot of disabled devices.

We both decide to bombard at Guam:

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 11657 troops, 218 guns, 456 vehicles, Assault Value = 599

Defending force 37940 troops, 860 guns, 1294 vehicles, Assault Value = 946

Japanese ground losses:
44 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
150 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 12 (5 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1038 troops, 118 guns, 87 vehicles, Assault Value = 933

Defending force 25239 troops, 380 guns, 539 vehicles, Assault Value = 588

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 8 (2 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Quite a difference in results but both in my favour.

E No. 24, APD T-1, SC CHa-95 commissioned. The APD is the first of the dedicated APD, I get about one a fortnight. Full speed is a bit on the slow side (22) but cruise speed a touch faster than normal (16) and they have a good capacity (400/164) so I think they will be useful for pick ups.

Spotted a CV/BB task force moving South West from Ceylon. It could be heading for the Cape or be part of some attack.

[Spidery]

March 27th 1944

SC CHa-37 is lost near Shanghai.

E No. 12 and a couple of small sub-chasers are commissioned.

Allies bombard at Guam and suffer[:)]:

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1026 troops, 117 guns, 86 vehicles, Assault Value = 1005

Defending force 25404 troops, 380 guns, 540 vehicles, Assault Value = 597

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 48 (42 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (5 destroyed, 2 disabled)

[Spidery]

March 28th 1944

Allied suffer in an artillery bombardment at Guam[8D]

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 972 troops, 96 guns, 82 vehicles, Assault Value = 1070

Defending force 25478 troops, 380 guns, 541 vehicles, Assault Value = 605

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 50 (46 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 36 (35 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

I think he had two artillery battalions destroyed[:)].

Allied task forces seen heading North-East from Truk. Probably intending to invade Marcus Island. Will be interesting to see how that works out as I have forts 6 there and he has messed up Atoll attacks before. I have 2 days to fly some more troops in which should push it into over-stacked with 1 AF Bn and 1 AA unit and the rest combat troops but just 6 8cm DP guns for anti-shipping.

M6A1 Seiran to 9/44. I expect to have this 1/8/44 and to have the Seiran carrying subs available a week or so later. I'll then send all 5 out, with some glen subs, to try and raid.

44th Division arrives at Osaka/Kyoto. Over the next few months receive a steady supply of infantry units. Fairly well equipped but lacking experience and morale. These will, mostly, be kept at home to improve defenses. However, I do need to ship some more stuff to Formosa and Okinawa.

[Spidery]

Industry Thoughts

China/Korea/Manchuko/Sumatra/Malaysia/Thailand/Indochina produce 4840 oil per day and consume 4440. With the likelihood that I will lose some of this production in the next month it seems that I no longer need to ship oil from Fusan to Japan. I may as well ship the oil from Formosa to China as well.

That produces 3996 fuel and they use 2312 for HI. The remainder will be of use for ships and for HI after the oil production. So it seems I no longer need to ship fuel from Fusan to Japan.

Home Isles and Sakhalin produce 1580 oil and use 8950 to produce 8055 fuel and need 12320. With the current home isle/Sakhalin stocks that works out oil stocks run out in Japan about the end of June 1944. Assuming 3000 fuel used per day for ships based from Japan (not that much need for anything to refuel now), that means fuel runs out early June 1945. Allied action will change all these guesses.

Once the fuel runs out, the home island resource production will exceed the demand from LI and residual fuel production. So some time before the fuel runs out I should aim to use up the resource stockpile and turn off some HI to avoid needing to ship resources in. I think that point will be sometime about the beginning of 1945 (Allied actions may "turn off" some HI for me before then).

The main immediate conclusion of this is that I can turn off the shipping of oil and fuel from Fusan.

[Spidery]

March 29th 1944

In Burma I made an error with some troops leaving Bhamo the turn before the new garrison arrived. In the interim the base switched to Allied control. Should take it back next turn unless he can do something clever such as fly paras in. However, will have lost the forts.[:(]

The Allied task forces seen leaving Truk have turned more North and may be heading for Pagan, Saipan or some of the small bases.

Not much else happening. Allies abandon bombardment at Guam after two disastrous days of precision counter-battery fire. As his carriers have been away from Guam I have been using H8K2-L to fly supply from Iwo-Jima and have managed to slightly increase the supply at Guam, those planes carry a lot of supply!

[obvert]

I think I became notorious (or infamous) for my use of the Emily-L and Tabby to move IJA stuff around and supply cut off garrisons. Very useful and kind of makes up for the difficulty using short range barges. Interesting that the Tabby carries almost as much as the Emily-L, more than the Allied C-47 of which it is a copy. Not sure how that happened.

[Spidery]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I think I became notorious (or infamous) for my use of the Emily-L and Tabby to move IJA stuff around and supply cut off garrisons. Very useful and kind of makes up for the difficulty using short range barges. Interesting that the Tabby carries almost as much as the Emily-L, more than the Allied C-47 of which it is a copy. Not sure how that happened.

I have just gone with the Emily-L for the navy because it can work to bases where the airfield has been destroyed. I'm mainly using that to fly supplies and the army planes and the patrol planes to move troops.

A Daigen class ship, the kind of small xAKL that might be used to send supply to a base, going to a base 20 hexes away will use about 170 fuel to deliver 1074 supply. An Emily-L can deliver 6 supply using 1 supply so the efficiency is comparable and the Emily can go places the xAKL can't. Of course, the Emily losses cost supply and HI to replace whereas a lost xAKL would not be replaced. However, the lost xAKL is likely to take supply and fuel down with it.