The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Well done.[X(]

Can I cross post some of the midgets hitting into my midget sub thread in the War room. Your performance here is amazing!

Well, there are a lot of them there. I think the key is disbanding daily, although it's a pain to set up 12 new TFs every day.

[witpqs]

I know that many people land base forces, construction engineers, and such with the assault forces (and I assume they are 100% prepared) but I just think it's the wrong way to go. Yes, they provide more support squads and maybe a little AA (landing a dedicated AA unit often makes sense), but they increase the stacking level and cause every device in every unit to eat more supply plus take a little more disruption and fatigue penalty. And of course the support forces are usually pretty beat up when combat is over and must recover to achieve full usefulness.

BTW, that 1st Cavalry (Spec) Cav Div is not a full size division like the regular IDs are.

[obvert]

So. Not sure I want to risk the KB here. Thinking of just pushing it back next to Saipan.

What do you guys think. Worth the risk to hit a tired Allied fleet or not?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I know that many people land base forces, construction engineers, and such with the assault forces (and I assume they are 100% prepared) but I just think it's the wrong way to go. Yes, they provide more support squads and maybe a little AA (landing a dedicated AA unit often makes sense), but they increase the stacking level and cause every device in every unit to eat more supply plus take a little more disruption and fatigue penalty. And of course the support forces are usually pretty beat up when combat is over and must recover to achieve full usefulness.

BTW, that 1st Cavalry (Spec) Cav Div is not a full size division like the regular IDs are.

I agree. I think he just realized that even if he landed stuff and took the base he'd have to then pull out eventually with the fleet. Judging by the last combat adjustment, from around 300 AV to 3 in combat, something is now amiss.

Here is the report from that one.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR October 13, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Marcus Island (123,85)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 4465 troops, 192 guns, 112 vehicles, Assault Value = 308

Defending force 3169 troops, 54 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 70

Allied adjusted assault: 3

Japanese adjusted defense: 35

Allied assault odds: 1 to 11 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
290 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (4 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
558 casualties reported
Squads: 31 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (7 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 13 (12 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
194th Tank Battalion
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
25th Infantry Division
143rd USA Base Force
146th USA Base Force

Defending units:
Det. 3rd Special Base Force /1
78th Naval Guard Unit
Sasebo 7th SNLF
62nd Nav Gd /1
8th Armored Car Co
2nd South Seas Gsn
34th Ind. Engineer Regiment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[/font]

[witpqs]

Worst of all - why is he shock attacking? He is smashing his sword on the rocks!

[obvert]

I think the ships he has that carry supply also have troops, so if he wants supply he has to land troops and shock.

[obvert]

The state of these troops is not great. I have a feeling though that the Allies will not be able to attack seriously for a while. It seems like more supply and the removal of some shattered and over-stacked troops will be needed. He does have some landing craft here now and might try to take some off I would guess.

There are 22k+ Allies now at Marcus on a 6k SL atoll.

[obvert]

I saw that Buna made level 6 so thought maybe it was time for a visit. I saw only 4 fighters listed, but it seems he has a lot of fighters on CAP at more than zero range. We got hit by the bleeding CAP and lost a bunch of Oscars plus a few Helens. I think I can exploit that soon with sweeps to surrounding bases though.

[obvert]

Here are the losses on the day. Not great but at least the base took significant damage and I learned something I might be able to use.

[obvert]

In Burma now the troops blocking the 300k Allied army have all dug in. It's a pretty secure position now.

[Rio Bravo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

In Burma now the troops blocking the 300k Allied army have all dug in. It's a pretty secure position now.

Are you having any difficulties keeping supplied?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo

ORIGINAL: obvert

In Burma now the troops blocking the 300k Allied army have all dug in. It's a pretty secure position now.

Are you having any difficulties keeping supplied?

No, not here. It's on a yellow road but only one hex from a gray road/rail hub at Taung Gyi. As long as I keep the ships coming to Rangoon/Moulmein the supply is not a problem for the Japanese.

He on the other hand is not near good supply centers and has another 200k+ mouths to feed, not to mention guns to arm, and he is also on a long LOC through the jungles of Burma to India.

I've been steadily bombing Lashio, Akyab and Ramree Island to inhibit supply flow and deprive the Allies of nearby airbases to fly in supply and CAP the area.

[Rio Bravo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo

ORIGINAL: obvert

In Burma now the troops blocking the 300k Allied army have all dug in. It's a pretty secure position now.

Are you having any difficulties keeping supplied?

No, not here. It's on a yellow road but only one hex from a gray road/rail hub at Taung Gyi. As long as I keep the ships coming to Rangoon/Moulmein the supply is not a problem for the Japanese.

He on the other hand is not near good supply centers and has another 200k+ mouths to feed, not to mention guns to arm, and he is also on a long LOC through the jungles of Burma to India.

I've been steadily bombing Lashio, Akyab and Ramree Island to inhibit supply flow and deprive the Allies of nearby airbases to fly in supply and CAP the area.

*nods lots*

I have spent hours trying to figure out a way to supply a land war from India, through Burma, into China, and then on to Manchuko and Korea. I guess once the Allies have heaps of carriers to escort supply convoys, it could be done. But, that puts the war into late or early '44. Dangit!

[KenchiSulla]

How are you guarding the sea flank? Any risk of amphibous operations behind your lines?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

How are you guarding the sea flank? Any risk of amphibous operations behind your lines?

Which areas do you mean? [:)]

There is always a risk when the KB location is known. Previously the KB was in a central position so it could react. There are surface forces in each region plus decent amounts of LBA strike planes. One thing that makes me think he's not planning other sneaky ops is the distribution of air power (almost all 4E in India and some in SW Pac, plus ALL P-47s in India and ALL P-38s in SW PAC). The concentration of Allied CV strength is in sight here, and there is not much else on the board.

There is extended search from Cocos in the Indian Ocean plus I-boats with Glens aiming to fill holes in this search. Sabang has major search and recon. The area near Burma has extensive search and recon.

From Broome West OZ is still in Japanese hands. There is some early warning search and subs along the coast from Perth up to Exmouth to provide some warning. Merauke has search for the South of New Guinea.

In the North extended search flies from Paramushiro into the Aleutians and several PBs are on picket duty in the area North of Marcus and South of the Kuriles.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo


*nods lots*

I have spent hours trying to figure out a way to supply a land war from India, through Burma, into China, and then on to Manchuko and Korea. I guess once the Allies have heaps of carriers to escort supply convoys, it could be done. But, that puts the war into late or early '44. Dangit!

The Allied commanders probably spent more than a few hours thinking about the same problems. There is a reason this area of the map did not get cleared out before 45 in the war.

If you look at a lot of AARs that get into the late game, it is possible, but there isn't a quick fix. It takes step by step moves with a larger strategic goal in mind and the logistics in place to achieve that. The hard part starting out is understanding the logistics that are possible. Burma has special monsoon rules. There are no continuous roads from India to Burma. This all makes everything very slow moving and a real slog. As it was. [:)]

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

How are you guarding the sea flank? Any risk of amphibous operations behind your lines?

Which areas do you mean? [:)]

There is always a risk when the KB location is known. Previously the KB was in a central position so it could react. There are surface forces in each region plus decent amounts of LBA strike planes. One thing that makes me think he's not planning other sneaky ops is the distribution of air power (almost all 4E in India and some in SW Pac, plus ALL P-47s in India and ALL P-38s in SW PAC). The concentration of Allied CV strength is in sight here, and there is not much else on the board.

There is extended search from Cocos in the Indian Ocean plus I-boats with Glens aiming to fill holes in this search. Sabang has major search and recon. The area near Burma has extensive search and recon.

From Broome West OZ is still in Japanese hands. There is some early warning search and subs along the coast from Perth up to Exmouth to provide some warning. Merauke has search for the South of New Guinea.

In the North extended search flies from Paramushiro into the Aleutians and several PBs are on picket duty in the area North of Marcus and South of the Kuriles.

I was talking about your blocking position in Burma. Looks like you have got that angle covered as good as possible. Would it be possible for him to strike from the south towards Java or perhaps Sumatra?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

How are you guarding the sea flank? Any risk of amphibous operations behind your lines?

Which areas do you mean? [:)]

There is always a risk when the KB location is known. Previously the KB was in a central position so it could react. There are surface forces in each region plus decent amounts of LBA strike planes. One thing that makes me think he's not planning other sneaky ops is the distribution of air power (almost all 4E in India and some in SW Pac, plus ALL P-47s in India and ALL P-38s in SW PAC). The concentration of Allied CV strength is in sight here, and there is not much else on the board.

There is extended search from Cocos in the Indian Ocean plus I-boats with Glens aiming to fill holes in this search. Sabang has major search and recon. The area near Burma has extensive search and recon.

From Broome West OZ is still in Japanese hands. There is some early warning search and subs along the coast from Perth up to Exmouth to provide some warning. Merauke has search for the South of New Guinea.

In the North extended search flies from Paramushiro into the Aleutians and several PBs are on picket duty in the area North of Marcus and South of the Kuriles.

I was talking about your blocking position in Burma. Looks like you have got that angle covered as good as possible. Would it be possible for him to strike from the south towards Java or perhaps Sumatra?

It would. It think he was discouraged earlier when I shut down his push for the Andamans in spite of his superiority in CVs. I doubt he'll go out on a limb like that after experiencing that LBA can really get to landings in this area with a density of big bases.

I have decent primary defenses and forts in all possible Sumatra and Java landing sites and I'm bringing more soon. The air bases though are very good around here.

Also, he has 12k AV tied up in Burma including most good Brit/Indian troops, a Marine Division and some very good Aussies. There are US troops but he has to have some prepping in the Pacific if he's going for Marcus, right?

[JohnDillworth]

I decided it is time to move the KB out a bit to prepare for a strike possibility. All TFs are fueled and ready, full complement of planes and now all ready to fly.

I think I's take the shot here. His air crews are a bit worn down the numbers will not get better that they are now. He is now in he "carrier a month" club so the next time you meet he will have 3 or 4 more. In he long run Marcus is lost but you could put a huge black eye on him and put his timetable back months. I would not go chest to chest but get just close enough and you might get a good strike in. Maybe you stay near land based air and he gets pulled in. You can replace the aircraft at this point and you are not too far from friendly ports

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I decided it is time to move the KB out a bit to prepare for a strike possibility. All TFs are fueled and ready, full complement of planes and now all ready to fly.

I think I's take the shot here. His air crews are a bit worn down the numbers will not get better that they are now. He is now in he "carrier a month" club so the next time you meet he will have 3 or 4 more. In he long run Marcus is lost but you could put a huge black eye on him and put his timetable back months. I would not go chest to chest but get just close enough and you might get a good strike in. Maybe you stay near land based air and he gets pulled in. You can replace the aircraft at this point and you are not too far from friendly ports

Well, I went against my cautiousness and did something I might still regret but I did come to a similar conclusion. On the map of the Pacific above I've marked the KB and Allied CV positions. I didn't mark the confirmed position of the retreating Allied BBs moving toward Wake, but that's what that TF is made up of on the East side of the map. I decided to go for a distant strike on the back side of Marcus in an area he'd moved into many times with a secondary target of the BBs.

Last turn the KB was undetected 4 hexes out from Saipan. I was only able to use the fast CVs for this op, which made it a real risk, as did moving so far out, 18 hexes at full flank. If he'd retreated with the CVs far enough this could have been really poor. He didn't. [:)]