The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[obvert]

This was a nerve-wracking turn!!! I had trouble sleeping last night, (I might have trouble again tonight depending on what I decide to do next), but it certainly made me feel better to see this as the first air strike after the night phase finished! [8D]

[obvert]

Then this ...

[obvert]

Even a bit of this ...

[obvert]

but unfortunately I also saw some of this. I witnessed at least 5-6 none exploding torpedoes during this battle! [X(]

Too bad. Although the results are pretty good, and I'm sure will be slightly surprising when Historiker sees the turn, we didn't get all BBs here. The Maryland escapes with only a handful of bomb hits and that's while at least 3-4 full torpedo bomber quads go for DDs, missing of course. [:@]

Still, this should be 400-600 VPs in hand, and subs will have a say tomorrow on the rest too.

but ...

[KenchiSulla]

Excellent strike! Could you post the combat report?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Excellent strike! Could you post the combat report?

Yes, just getting to that!

Here is the CR for this battle. Unfortunately not all of the TB flew for some reason, and a few DB went for a lone DD unsuccessfully near Wake.

Judging by the air losses below (4 x Kingfisher lost on the ground) I'm pretty positive Arizona went under with Colorado. The other two should be out for a good while with all of those 500kg penetrating hits and fires, but I'm hoping subs can add to the misery. [:)]

[font="Trebuchet MS"]
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR October 14, 42
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ASW attack near Wake Island at 131,90

Japanese Ships
SS I-180

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia
BB Colorado
DD Hammann
DD Anderson
DD Selfridge
DD Lang

SS I-180 is sighted by escort
I-180 diving deep ....
DD Selfridge fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Lang fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Lang fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Wake Island at 132,91

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 111 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16
A6M5b Zero x 76
A6M5c Zero x 28
B5N2 Kate x 16
B6N1 Jill x 20
D4Y1 Judy x 27
D4Y3 Judy x 42

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 5 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
B6N1 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 2 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 5 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 11, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Colorado, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 7, and is sunk
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 9, heavy fires
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
DD Selfridge, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Anderson, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DD Hammann, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Lang

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
16 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
20 x B6N1 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
15 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
7 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
11 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
8 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring an Allied BB
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Anderson
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB Maryland
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB Colorado

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Wake Island at 132,91

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 91 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 41
B6N2 Jill x 18
D4Y1 Judy x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 1 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Selfridge, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Lang

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
18 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
7 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB West Virginia
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BB Arizona

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Wake Island at 135,95

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 66 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16
A6M5b Zero x 22
D4Y3 Judy x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y3 Judy: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
DD Mustin

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
7 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
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[Lowpe]

Woohoo!

Get out of Dodge quick! Good luck.

[JohnDillworth]

WTF? Why are these BB's cruising around without air protection? Nice strike and nice work making him pay for doing something silly

[obvert]

So here's the deal now. I've got the other two TFs caught in plain sight (which I wasn't intending as I had assumed the Allied CVs would move a bit, as they have been each day during this phase of Marcus invasions). They cannot run as fast as the Allies obviously. The CVEs can make Guam at flank (12 hexes). The CV/CVL TF can make one hex from Guam (14 hexes) unless they really get lucky.

Or I can link everything up and go for it up near Marcus. The distant CVs that made the strike should be fine for another day of flank, but could be caught if they try to flee so I'm wondering if I don't just go for broke here and see what happens.

You never know with weather, reactions, coordination, etc. So, I'm leaning to going for a combined strike from an unexpected position. [;)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Woohoo!

Get out of Dodge quick! Good luck.

Yeah, that's the issue. Maybe getting into dodge is more easy to arrange? [:)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

WTF? Why are these BB's cruising around without air protection? Nice strike and nice work making him pay for doing something silly

He'd been sending all of the surface forces back toward Wake after they bombarded. I was looking at this earlier, when about 3-5 TFs were out here, but neither his CVs nor mine were in optimal locations for it to work. I had hoped more might come up from Wake on its way to hit Marcus too, but alas that didn't happen. Maybe it's better as the BBs are worth a chunk of points, the strikes were then concentrated, and I can be sure some are actually gone completely, not just injured.

[obvert]

Oh, and I forgot actually that the West Virginia had earlier taken the midget sub torpedo at Marcus (if no FOW involved as to which BB). So it should be in pretty bad shape too. The Maryland though has gotten off lightly. [:D]

[obvert]

If anyone has thoughts about next turn let me know soon. About to go work on it. Lots to consider. A very psychological moment, and I have to try to get into what he's going to be thinking seeing this.

[KenchiSulla]

I would say try to re-unite near the Marianas (but it depends heavily on what you got there) ... I don't know his strength ofcourse

If you have long range torpedo bombers available then releasing them might help you. He only has his carriers....

[KenchiSulla]

It is hard to give you solid advise ofcourse. If he is massively outnumbering you with regards to carrier strength I would try to run to the less Obvious place (that means not Truk and not Mariana islands). That would only work if you are sure where his spotting assets are and can remain undetected for at least 2 or 3 days....

In my first PBEM I would get into situations like this on a regular basis. 50/50 I would say..... (once I dodged enemy carriers by a hex - they came one hex short of being in range)....

[JohnDillworth]

Just check your torpedoe stocks before making a decision. If you are going to start trading punches you might not have more than another full strike left

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Just check your torpedoe stocks before making a decision. If you are going to start trading punches you might not have more than another full strike left

Both fortunately and unfortunately I do have torpedoes for everyone. About four groups didn't fly of the TBs and a few of the DBs sat at home too. Hmmmmm.

Not sure what was going on there, but I hope it was just a lackadasical response to the target choices available. Most CVs are just slightly over caacity and not enough to shut down oops.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

It is hard to give you solid advise of course. If he is massively outnumbering you with regards to carrier strength I would try to run to the less Obvious place (that means not Truk and not Mariana islands). That would only work if you are sure where his spotting assets are and can remain undetected for at least 2 or 3 days....

In my first PBEM I would get into situations like this on a regular basis. 50/50 I would say..... (once I dodged enemy carriers by a hex - they came one hex short of being in range)....

Thanks for the responses. It is tough. I took the risk knowing day two would be a coin flip. I figure the chances of escape are pretty good, but the chances of creating a positive engagement are even better. I do have LBA in the Marianas he doesn't know about, but of course getting them to both help cover the KB and fly strikes is a big juggle.

On the other hand, I wonder what juicy things are near Wake? If he's using this base to stage there could be CVE/AO/BB/CA/CL/APA in abundance right there. That's not a bad option either, and if he sees the TFs to the South assuming we'll link but but instead we go farther SW, well, the next day is another question mark, but the items on the menu might be worth it. [:)]

[Lowpe]

I was thinking trying to assemble near Wake, with air and port strikes and maybe a sweep (what size AF is it?)...after that you need to figure how to get out, but I bet he will go to the Marianas looking for a CV clash, you would have gained some distance and time, then retreat to the north, NE, NWdepending.

Or He will move his carriers to protect his remaining Battleships...that could be fun.

Moonlight is great, try to get some night strikes and night search up from the Marianas. If moonlight was low, if you have them near the Marianas, a squadron of destroyers set to move near his fleet looking for a night naval engagement?

[KenchiSulla]

If you go to Wake with your fast TF, where would you go with the others?