Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[obvert]

When you talk about taking Rangoon because of its VPs I wonder. You don't need those VPs until 45, until the game ends, by which time Rangoon will surely be Allied. So what's the hurry?

Massive battles involving huge Chinese forces will lose you VPs most likely. VPs you won't get a 2:1 ratio on at least, even with the low VP cost of Chinese forces. I've seen a 4:1 AV battle against dug in IJA troops where the Chinese lost massively and the Japanese suffered little. So in the end getting Rangoon now, in this way with the object of gaining its VPs is a losing battle in VP terms. It'll fall just as easily if you keep the pressure on with the Chinese, bombard daily with your extensive Allied supplies, work down his armies through the air and eventually either force them back due to supply constraints, fear of being cut off, or actually landing behind and cutting them off.

Getting to Rangoon for me is only necessary by 4/43 when I'll be getting ready to bomb the DEI with B-29s, and this move is right on target for that kind of timeframe. It's a strategic target and that is why it's worth so much in VPs I'd imagine, but the campaign to win it now is most likely not going to help you achieve 2:1 more quickly.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

When you talk about taking Rangoon because of its VPs I wonder. You don't need those VPs until 45, until the game ends, by which time Rangoon will surely be Allied. So what's the hurry?

Massive battles involving huge Chinese forces will lose you VPs most likely. VPs you won't get a 2:1 ratio on at least, even with the low VP cost of Chinese forces. I've seen a 4:1 AV battle against dug in IJA troops where the Chinese lost massively and the Japanese suffered little. So in the end getting Rangoon now, in this way with the object of gaining its VPs is a losing battle in VP terms. It'll fall just as easily if you keep the pressure on with the Chinese, bombard daily with your extensive Allied supplies, work down his armies through the air and eventually either force them back due to supply constraints, fear of being cut off, or actually landing behind and cutting them off.

Getting to Rangoon for me is only necessary by 4/43 when I'll be getting ready to bomb the DEI with B-29s, and this move is right on target for that kind of timeframe. It's a strategic target and that is why it's worth so much in VPs I'd imagine, but the campaign to win it now is most likely not going to help you achieve 2:1 more quickly.

I agree. I'm not really trying to hurry, just trying to make sure that eventually taking it is possible. If I never move forward, I never take it...

So far, as long as I am able to knock the Japanese army into a retreat, I gain on the LCU VPs. I'm slowly getting more Aussie/Brit/Indian units to add to the pile. I'm extremely wary of entering into open terrain. I would love to just slowly go down through the jungle, bombarding and bombing for weeks, burning up his supply and disabling his troops. At current game date, Magwe is almost bombed out but I might stop where it's at now (~97 Oil left) as I can see myself taking possession of it within a few months. Beyond that, all of his supply needs to be shipped in. He has the CEA Command HQ somewhere in the theater, so he might not have as much trouble keeping the area supplied as I do... I also need to keep in mind that now that we're on the road outside of Akyab, his supply shipments can happen at least as often as mine. We'll see... one of my first moves is probably going to be on Ramree and I might just pause there for a while.

It also looks like he's giving up on Burma north of Mandalay anyway, in which case I'll happily scoop up those bases and start building them. Plenty of Chinese/Indian engineers available, and *2 multipliers on them all. Every drop counts...



I might have a lull in my workday for the next 30-45, but unsure if I can actually get an update up [:D].

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo

I have finally managed to get caught up to date with your AAR, Lokasenna. I have also read all of your opponents AAR. So, won't make any comments other than to say it has been great fun reading both of your AARs and that your war is damn interesting.

Regards,

-Rio Bravo

Thanks! Really trying to get the thread caught up to the game, but doing turns takes precedence if I've got a couple minutes.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

When you talk about taking Rangoon because of its VPs I wonder. You don't need those VPs until 45, until the game ends, by which time Rangoon will surely be Allied. So what's the hurry?

Massive battles involving huge Chinese forces will lose you VPs most likely. VPs you won't get a 2:1 ratio on at least, even with the low VP cost of Chinese forces. I've seen a 4:1 AV battle against dug in IJA troops where the Chinese lost massively and the Japanese suffered little. So in the end getting Rangoon now, in this way with the object of gaining its VPs is a losing battle in VP terms. It'll fall just as easily if you keep the pressure on with the Chinese, bombard daily with your extensive Allied supplies, work down his armies through the air and eventually either force them back due to supply constraints, fear of being cut off, or actually landing behind and cutting them off.

Getting to Rangoon for me is only necessary by 4/43 when I'll be getting ready to bomb the DEI with B-29s, and this move is right on target for that kind of timeframe. It's a strategic target and that is why it's worth so much in VPs I'd imagine, but the campaign to win it now is most likely not going to help you achieve 2:1 more quickly.

I agree. I'm not really trying to hurry, just trying to make sure that eventually taking it is possible. If I never move forward, I never take it...

So far, as long as I am able to knock the Japanese army into a retreat, I gain on the LCU VPs. I'm slowly getting more Aussie/Brit/Indian units to add to the pile. I'm extremely wary of entering into open terrain. I would love to just slowly go down through the jungle, bombarding and bombing for weeks, burning up his supply and disabling his troops. At current game date, Magwe is almost bombed out but I might stop where it's at now (~97 Oil left) as I can see myself taking possession of it within a few months. Beyond that, all of his supply needs to be shipped in. He has the CEA Command HQ somewhere in the theater, so he might not have as much trouble keeping the area supplied as I do... I also need to keep in mind that now that we're on the road outside of Akyab, his supply shipments can happen at least as often as mine. We'll see... one of my first moves is probably going to be on Ramree and I might just pause there for a while.

It also looks like he's giving up on Burma north of Mandalay anyway, in which case I'll happily scoop up those bases and start building them. Plenty of Chinese/Indian engineers available, and *2 multipliers on them all. Every drop counts...



I might have a lull in my workday for the next 30-45, but unsure if I can actually get an update up [:D].

Just looked in Tracker now that I've got it loaded up. Between 12/03/43 and 12/08/43, I gained 230 VPs from IJA LCUs vs. losing only 26 VPs for mine. It's hard to separate the results at Taberfane from those in Burma, but it looks like Burma might have been about 50-60% of those points. Even the Chinese can beat tanks when the tanks are in the jungle with no supply. I'd like to repeat this if possible. His tanks are in the next hex with just a few of my units so far (I was slow in pursuing), but tanks move at half the speed of infantry through the jungle, so I might get to beat up on them again.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

When you talk about taking Rangoon because of its VPs I wonder. You don't need those VPs until 45, until the game ends, by which time Rangoon will surely be Allied. So what's the hurry?

Massive battles involving huge Chinese forces will lose you VPs most likely. VPs you won't get a 2:1 ratio on at least, even with the low VP cost of Chinese forces. I've seen a 4:1 AV battle against dug in IJA troops where the Chinese lost massively and the Japanese suffered little. So in the end getting Rangoon now, in this way with the object of gaining its VPs is a losing battle in VP terms. It'll fall just as easily if you keep the pressure on with the Chinese, bombard daily with your extensive Allied supplies, work down his armies through the air and eventually either force them back due to supply constraints, fear of being cut off, or actually landing behind and cutting them off.

Getting to Rangoon for me is only necessary by 4/43 when I'll be getting ready to bomb the DEI with B-29s, and this move is right on target for that kind of timeframe. It's a strategic target and that is why it's worth so much in VPs I'd imagine, but the campaign to win it now is most likely not going to help you achieve 2:1 more quickly.

I agree. I'm not really trying to hurry, just trying to make sure that eventually taking it is possible. If I never move forward, I never take it...

So far, as long as I am able to knock the Japanese army into a retreat, I gain on the LCU VPs. I'm slowly getting more Aussie/Brit/Indian units to add to the pile. I'm extremely wary of entering into open terrain. I would love to just slowly go down through the jungle, bombarding and bombing for weeks, burning up his supply and disabling his troops. At current game date, Magwe is almost bombed out but I might stop where it's at now (~97 Oil left) as I can see myself taking possession of it within a few months. Beyond that, all of his supply needs to be shipped in. He has the CEA Command HQ somewhere in the theater, so he might not have as much trouble keeping the area supplied as I do... I also need to keep in mind that now that we're on the road outside of Akyab, his supply shipments can happen at least as often as mine. We'll see... one of my first moves is probably going to be on Ramree and I might just pause there for a while.

It also looks like he's giving up on Burma north of Mandalay anyway, in which case I'll happily scoop up those bases and start building them. Plenty of Chinese/Indian engineers available, and *2 multipliers on them all. Every drop counts...

Yep. Ramree would certainly help. What I've found in my game with no SL that even when the Allies massively outnumber the Japanese, if they're dug in and in x3 the first few attacks have potential to really take a toll on the Chinese especially. You know the layout and your opponent best thought, of course, and part of these choices is also knowing how he will respond. If he's giving up portions freely and you think he'll just leave token resistence to slow you up elsewhere, it's a totally different story.

Just looked in Tracker now that I've got it loaded up. Between 12/03/43 and 12/08/43, I gained 230 VPs from IJA LCUs vs. losing only 26 VPs for mine. It's hard to separate the results at Taberfane from those in Burma, but it looks like Burma might have been about 50-60% of those points. Even the Chinese can beat tanks when the tanks are in the jungle with no supply. I'd like to repeat this if possible. His tanks are in the next hex with just a few of my units so far (I was slow in pursuing), but tanks move at half the speed of infantry through the jungle, so I might get to beat up on them again.

Interesting. Yes. Tanks don't do jungle well off road. Sounds good.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yep. Ramree would certainly help. What I've found in my game with no SL that even when the Allies massively outnumber the Japanese, if they're dug in and in x3 the first few attacks have potential to really take a toll on the Chinese especially. You know the layout and your opponent best thought, of course, and part of these choices is also knowing how he will respond. If he's giving up portions freely and you think he'll just leave token resistence to slow you up elsewhere, it's a totally different story.

Yeah. Even a couple of my Indian divisions, some time back, really suffered. Despite outnumbering the IJA 2:1, the IJA was sitting in defensive positions. I needed more. Now I know. I'm taking the slow and lumbering approach here, and need to keep reminding myself of them. He's ceded control of the air outside of Rangoon, so I can sweep for periodic LRCAP and bomb at will. Even if I don't cause direct casualties, he'll burn supply for AA and suffer disruption. In those conditions, the Chinese seem to do OK when combined with some Indians and armor. Not a lot, but enough. Plodding along...

[Lokasenna]

December 8, 1943

A good day that could have been even better...

Subs
Guardfish is located by ASW outside of Gebe (near Sorong), but this is the avenue for KB is they're coming for the Timor Sea...

And then:

Sub attack near Manokwari at 87,104

Japanese Ships
CV Zuikaku
CA Chikuma
DD Hayanami
DD Fujinami
DD Suzunami
DD Shiranui
DD Kiyonami

Allied Ships
SS Runner, hits 1

SS Runner launches 6 torpedoes at CV Zuikaku

Ok, that wasn't great. Let's try again with the rear tubes!

Sub attack near Manokwari at 87,104

Japanese Ships
CV Shokaku, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
CA Chikuma
DD Hayanami
DD Fujinami
DD Suzunami
DD Shiranui
DD Kiyonami

Allied Ships
SS Runner

Ammo storage explosion on CV Shokaku
SS Runner launches 4 torpedoes at CV Shokaku

Belt armor penetration seen for both hits, but no "critical damage" or "severe flooding" seen. Damage might be in the 20s for System and Float. I they'll put out that fire with relative ease and that she's in no danger of sinking. Coming just a month or two after hitting Akagi up by Japan, it would have been great to put both "Kakus" out of action for a while too. Oh well.


I-32 retreats from an LCT on the surface somewhere in the Gilberts [:D].

Timor Sea
BC Repulse & Gang trundle on in to Koepang harbor and make a mess of things. First, they sink a small PB (Kiso Maru, First of her Nam-...er, class) and 3 xAKs. The 5 mixed CLs actually bombard first, getting a reported 442 casualties amongst the IJA 18th Division and beating up the runways, damaging planes, etc. The BC and her buddies CA Hawkins and CA Dorsetshire get another 271 reported casualties, with more damaged planes. A handful also "DOG". Models include A6M5b Zero, George-1, Jill, and Ki-100-I.

Recon on Roti, outside Koepang, reveals only 7500 troops. Pretty weak, but I need to be able to actually get an invasion force to the island first.

15x P-38s follow the bombardments at Koepang with a sweep, and win handily against the 16 planes that make it up on CAP.

SSTs drop bits of the 3rd Australian Brigade at Ambon.

Helens hit DD Philip at Taberfane's port again and she has to be scuttled. Oh well.

36x B-24s bomb Koepang's airfield and only get a few hits. Recon shows that AF and port damage there is only in the 30s on the 9th...

Burma
11 (6 and then 5) Wellingtons drop mines at Rangoon. Somehow, they drop 14 mines. I've noticed this before - bombers on "Mine port" missions using a queer number of mines. Really strange.

Other stuff
Have noticed that he's building the airfield at Sidate (the base just SW of Manado, which is his nearest AF-9 to the Timor Sea) recently.

[Lokasenna]

December 9, 1943

Subs
Darter misses a good TK outside of Dadjangas, but Searaven sights another good TK outside of Makassar and damages her.

Haddock sinks an xAK with troops onboard SW of Yap.

Gilberts
22 Jacks and 18 Lilys fly against a TF loading up at Tarawa - from Mili, I think. Corsairs and Thuds on CAP at Tarawa shoot them all down for no loss.

Timor Sea
Night fighters are present at Boela for my attempted bombing this night. I think this is his first dedicated unit. J1N1-S, nothing too scary so far.

He noticed the Aussies at Ambon immediately, and the BBs Ise, Hyuga and CLs Naka and Agano bombard the place after it has flipped to my control. He only gets a few base hits. Helens bombing later do get a whopping 7 casualties. So far, Ambon as a distraction is going swimmingly. I planned to take it on a whim, simply to deny him the base for a short period of time, and maybe occupy assets that he would use otherwise in his response.

Today, it's Dili's turn to receive the 4E Train. Over 50 runway hits and tons of Georges blown up on the ground.

13 Bettys are shot down over Darwin.

Bombardment of Saumlaki by some of my CAs and DDs gets 300 casualties and just a few hits on the base...

Burma
40 Frank-a's sweep Cox's Bazar, which was empty anyway... prompting me to remember that I had inbound ships and didn't set up CAP. 13 Bettys followup and plant 2 bombs on an xAK's deck. They sink it and 1 YMS in the afternoon.

8 more Wellingtons drop mines at Rangoon.

Some tussles outside of Akyab as a few groups of my 2E's get lucky against leaky CAP.

Other stuff
Gove's port expands to 4. Neglected to mention that Makassar is also an AF-9, along with Manado... but if I can get Timor, I can put Makassar out of business in short order.

The base force fragment of his outside of Moresby is wiped out by my USA ID. I sent the whole division in the hopes of getting them a couple of points of EXP boost.

Nothing worth taking a picture of today, so here's a shot of the Strategic Map filtered for TFs. You can see something of my general sub deployment, as well as my areas of activity in the Solomons and Darwin/Gove/Normanton area.

[obvert]

How's your luck with subs along the Indochina coastline?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

How's your luck with subs along the Indochina coastline?

It's periodic. I'm getting better results around the coast of Luzon and Formosa, but obviously am getting attacked by ASW more often there.

There is a single shallow water hex in the middle of the South China Sea that I have had some success near - it is along the default routing for convoys from Singapore to the East China Sea area... but I think he is varying his routes. I'm not positive. I'm searching for them with the subs near Samah.

I have some PZ's set up to the SE of Saigon that get attacks off sometimes. The ones that are SW of Saigon haven't gotten anything, though.

Am also getting a lot between Davao and Balikpapan, and to the NE of Miri along the coast.

Frankly, I need to reallocate a lot of my subs from fleet support/IJN movement intel operations to convoy interdiction. I think I've hurt him long term in terms of Oil and Supply, and am wondering if I can make him really feel crunched in late '44 as the pace of operations steps up. His resistance might start crumbling... that's the hope, anyway.



That reminds me - he repaired a lot of the damage I did at Medan! I think that cost him more than he'll make back.

[Lowpe]

Pax Mondo had a formula for repairing oil....if he could continue to ship oil from the base for 90 days I seem to recall he would repair it. Against the AI.

Or something like that. I remember being shocked at how short a payback he was looking for.

[obvert]

Is he not running ASW air near the coasts? Seems like I'd get pummeled against Nick over by the coast there. Those deep water channels from Borne to Mindanao and Babs are trouble for the Japanese. I've mostly stopped using Babs but have a few things to keep subs focused there while convoys go elsewhere.

Torsten is getting a lot of hits against me up in No Pac and right around the HI. I think I've got that covered better now, but for a while it was 1-2 ships a day.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Is he not running ASW air near the coasts? Seems like I'd get pummeled against Nick over by the coast there. Those deep water channels from Borne to Mindanao and Babs are trouble for the Japanese. I've mostly stopped using Babs but have a few things to keep subs focused there while convoys go elsewhere.

Torsten is getting a lot of hits against me up in No Pac and right around the HI. I think I've got that covered better now, but for a while it was 1-2 ships a day.

There's air ASW all over the place near the frontlines, and now in the Celebes. Also near Truk and the Marianas. And mid-ocean bubbles of DL 10/10 is almost a sure indicator of KB's presence. But my boats between Balikpapan and Davao are only intermittently sighted from the air, and those near the NW coast of Luzon are not always detected either. They get attacked by surface ASW assets (he seems to have built a lot of the CHa-class, which I skip as they never upgrade beyond Type 95 DCs), but that's it.

Those in the South China Sea are pretty much never sighted, including those on the coast. This in itself is a valuable piece of intel, but it just almost-confirms something I've already suspected: all of his available air support is at the front, with barely any in the back lines.

I'm pretty pleased with my sub war thus far. I figure I can't count on them to sink anything, so whatever they sink is a bonus. I just went through for December, which has seemed a lighter month than usual for sub casualties, perhaps because of my offensive ops and repositioning subs in case KB comes a certain way. Subs sank 1 AMC, 6 xAK, 1 PB, 2 TK, and 1 xAKL with probables on 1 TK, 1 AO, and 1 xAK.

I didn't count any probables or possibles for November, but the confirmed totals were 6 xAK, 2 AM, 3 xAKL, 1 AV, 3 TK, 1 PB, 1 APD, and 2 xAP. It's worth noting that SS Archerfish sank both of those AMs within about a week of each other. Gotta get her secrets to laser-guided torpedoes out to the rest of the sub fleet...

[obvert]

Good results. You're probably right about his air units. Good to know for you.

I like the sub war as Allies. Very fun, and really diverse depending on the opponent.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Good results. You're probably right about his air units. Good to know for you.

I like the sub war as Allies. Very fun, and really diverse depending on the opponent.

I'm really enjoying it also. Sometimes it's tedious, and I know I'm leaving boats in suboptimal or even worthless patrol zones because there's just so many.

I've lost 25 fleet boats, including 1 on 12/7 to a port strike. Also lost 4 S-boats, 3 K-type Dutch boats, and 1 O-type Dutch boat. Pretty light losses, I think? I have lost 6 fleet boats in November/December, but I've also been more aggressive with them. Going into known minefields, base hexes, etc.

In comparison, my other game has seen my subs used much more for transport in order to keep pockets of troops alive at bases just behind his lines (the air war is very different - it's Scen 2 and he's much further ahead in R&D), and due to his forward deployment of heavy naval assets I've deployed more subs for "combat" missions than economic missions. Possibly a mistake on my part, but I'm also in a much better map/VP position in that game so I'm OK with it. Losses among subs are also lighter in that game by about 30%.

[Lokasenna]

Well, we've made it to January 4, 1944. Remember how Batan Island was still under US Army control? I re-read the manual after an email. Kamikaze conversions can begin and so they have.

I'm still back at New Ireland and such - many, many more hexes than the 15 from Tokyo, Takao, or Saigon. I am apprehensive about the amount of "fun" I am going to have, especially considering the amount of beating myself I've done in this game (flushing a few ships here and a few ships there for no gain). I'll complete the turn later. For now, I'm debating counters.

Do I simply run some CVs with 90-plane fighter groups? I don't even know. There's a reason the phrase is "the bomber will always get through." Even though we had a sync bug this turn, I experienced it in my replay where 22 Jills escorted by a meagre 20-30 fighters broke through a 150-plane CAP with in-hex radar and good weather: 6 made it to drop against ships in my replay, although they didn't hit anything. And I experienced it writ large back in May when I invaded Moresby... not looking forward to 81-plane kamikaze units where 20 or so of them punch through my CAP when I'm barely across the International Date Line on the map.

[obvert]

Think of using the DD pickets a few hexes in front of the fleet to serve as sponges for strikes. Good radar and hard to hit, in range of bleeding CAP. He'll have good shots with kamis, but if you're taking strategic targets, that's fine. Jocke against me is a good example. How many CV/CVL/CVE were lost landing in Korea? Yet that effectively ended the game.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Think of using the DD pickets a few hexes in front of the fleet to serve as sponges for strikes. Good radar and hard to hit, in range of bleeding CAP. He'll have good shots with kamis, but if you're taking strategic targets, that's fine. Jocke against me is a good example. How many CV/CVL/CVE were lost landing in Korea? Yet that effectively ended the game.

Hrm, perhaps.

I had a thought while doing dishes ([:'(]) that I should probably use TF dispersion, or at least many smaller TFs in one hex rather than lazying about with one TF. Harder to detect, even if it is effectively a giant fleet, and harder to do catastrophic damage. The only risk factor I can think of is against surface fleets, but I'm OK with using larger SCTFs as protection because those seem to be the least vulnerable ships to kami attacks, yeah? I mean they're going to hit BBs OK because they're bigger/slower, and probably even cruisers, but Fletchers... enough should live to still be able to provide that surface protection.

[Lowpe]

I am about to invade Japan against Mind-Messing in our Downfall game. Within the next two turns. Well maybe four depending how I want to set up an ablative shield for the first kamikazes.

I figure there will be a 2000 plane strike against me...I thought for the first days to cycle in DD task forces to set up pickets against his shipping, attract the shorter range cap as I move the landing ships into position hopefully drawing the longer ranged CAP.

So far his kamikazes have been less than effective, but pilot training starts off poor in Downfall and now I will be facing pilots trained for a month and half.

It will be interesting.[:)]

3 Nick kamikazes can put down a Fletcher...usually.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am about to invade Japan against Mind-Messing in our Downfall game. Within the next two turns. Well maybe four depending how I want to set up an ablative shield for the first kamikazes.

I figure there will be a 2000 plane strike against me...I thought for the first days to cycle in DD task forces to set up pickets against his shipping, attract the shorter range cap as I move the landing ships into position hopefully drawing the longer ranged CAP.

So far his kamikazes have been less than effective, but pilot training starts off poor in Downfall and now I will be facing pilots trained for a month and half.

It will be interesting.[:)]

3 Nick kamikazes can put down a Fletcher...usually.

Or one Helen/Peggy.[:)]