Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
[font="Verdana"]December 14th 1942[/font]

I just started reading this AAR but it seems that every date you have given is a year ahead of the actual date! Unless you are playing a mod where Dec 7th 1942 is the day that will live in infamy...

[witpqs]

Part of his master deception plan!

[BBfanboy]

The position of KB could also be cover for another invasion convoy headed to the Big Island of Hawaii. If he goes for that one as well as the others he has invaded, I would finally be convinced that PH is the main target here rather than a diversionary attack.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
[font="Verdana"]December 14th 1942[/font]

I just started reading this AAR but it seems that every date you have given is a year ahead of the actual date! Unless you are playing a mod where Dec 7th 1942 is the day that will live in infamy...

As Witpqs says its all part of the plan. I wish I could tell you more but its classified...

[:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The position of KB could also be cover for another invasion convoy headed to the Big Island of Hawaii. If he goes for that one as well as the others he has invaded, I would finally be convinced that PH is the main target here rather than a diversionary attack.

I would be VERY surprised if he doesn´t land there. Even if its just a diversion or isolation attempt. Since he doesn´t need to wait for prep he can just pick something up that is already in the area and land there.

[JocMeister]

Running a nasty cold again and couldn´t sleep. So I spent the night reading CRs AAR against PzH + JIIIs game vs Michael. An interesting read. Looking at my situation I´ve come to the conclusion that short of an "all in" allied effort the Japanese can secure PH. The landing will probably cost them dearly but its doable.

I´m going to do a few things in the coming turns. First of all I´m going to start planning for a Japanese occupation of PH. Strategically the only impact of this is that the WC suddenly becomes very vulnerable to raiding. This can be dealt with to some extent. Instead of using SF and San Diego for CENTPAC/SOPAC/OZ stuff I´ll have to use EC. Not really a problem but it will add travel time. I´ll start evacuating the WC in the coming month.

It also makes a lot of factories on the WC vulnerable to CV strikes. This can also be dealt with to an extent. I´ll focus whatever AA and planes at likely targets. Not much I can do more then that. I can´t really carry on trying to defend the PH air space. I´m losing 5-10 planes per day. My replacement rate is 35/month. So instead of depleting the squadrons I´ll withdraw them and let them reform in 60 days at SF.

I´m still pretty firm in my belief that the Allies shouldn´t fight to the death for PH at this time. Its a battle I can´t win at this stage. With LBA, KB and most of the IJN at Hawaii the allies simply doesn´t have the tools for it. Most importantly losing PH won´t decide the war. It will cost me something like 5-6k of VPs including the BBs (minus his losses in the landing and flak losses over time). Of those 6k VPs only half is permanent.

Anyone have a different opinion?

[BBfanboy]

I agree with abandoning PH only because he has come so early that the reinforcements needed to hold or really make him bleed just are not there. Would try to put a sub base in range of PH though. An AS anywhere will do. Not sure if his Nav Search would pick up an AS parked at French Frigate Shoal.

[HansBolter]

Adak is the best sub base on the map and will easily allow operations near Pearl. It also allows even S-Boats to operate in the Kuriles.

Accepting the loss of Pearl makes securing the northern flank doubly important as it provides a much needed sub base in good range of good targets and a pipeline through which you can threaten both his supply lines to Pearl and serve as a future springboard to the HI.

With the loss of the center you need to hold on to the right flank or you risk limiting your future operations to a unidirectional thrust from the south.

I would go all in to hold the northern flank.

Oh, and once sufficient flak and fighter cover builds up over the WC factories, I would welcome the extravagant expenditure of fuel required in raiding the WC.

Play "Russians in the Pacific"....lure him in deeper and deeper. Rope-a-Dope should be the order of the day for the next 18 months.

Sooner, rather than later you are going to need to evac the fleet from Pearl. Will be very, very ugly......worse than the thundering hordes evacing manila, but it MUST be done.

Scatter to the four winds with the operational mantra that he can't fly enough sorties to sink everything and salvage what you can.

[Bullwinkle58]

I agree with withdrawing all or most of the air power. I'd leave the P-40s; in the long run they don't matter and they can cause some losses as well as force more KB aircraft to fly for damage and fatigue. I'd pull the patrol planes and Bolos, etc.

On ships I disagree with a mass sortie. Whatever he has left that can shoot should stay. If they run the KB plinks them for no gain. If they stay in PH, never leaving the hex, they force landings to be escorted by at least cruisers, and that exposes them to the CD, which is impressive. Repairs are at least Truk-distant. That's useful if only in time gained, and some will sink. The ships at Pearl are by definition pre-war; the USN in the long run won't miss them. Besides, as above, they're toast if they run.

Adak is a nice idea, but without investment of LCUs he doesn't have to spare it can't hold in the first six months. Hauling submarine fuel there is also risky. Subs will need to operate from the WC unless something south can be established, maybe out of the Canal. There are many islands south of Christmas that would be less risky than Adak and far more supply-able. For what good Mk 10 fish do, which is not much.

PH's best hope is forts. Every level will cost him in troops, but especially precious supply that must be hauled at great fuel expense and xAK capacity he can't use to begin feeding his economy. Spending PPs to buy great leaders for PH is not a bad move either.

[JocMeister]

Good thoughts guys. I´ll comment tonight + update. Currently more or less bedridden with this stupid cold. [:(]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I agree with withdrawing all or most of the air power. I'd leave the P-40s; in the long run they don't matter and they can cause some losses as well as force more KB aircraft to fly for damage and fatigue. I'd pull the patrol planes and Bolos, etc.

On ships I disagree with a mass sortie. Whatever he has left that can shoot should stay. If they run the KB plinks them for no gain. If they stay in PH, never leaving the hex, they force landings to be escorted by at least cruisers, and that exposes them to the CD, which is impressive. Repairs are at least Truk-distant. That's useful if only in time gained, and some will sink. The ships at Pearl are by definition pre-war; the USN in the long run won't miss them. Besides, as above, they're toast if they run.

Adak is a nice idea, but without investment of LCUs he doesn't have to spare it can't hold in the first six months. Hauling submarine fuel there is also risky. Subs will need to operate from the WC unless something south can be established, maybe out of the Canal. There are many islands south of Christmas that would be less risky than Adak and far more supply-able. For what good Mk 10 fish do, which is not much.

PH's best hope is forts. Every level will cost him in troops, but especially precious supply that must be hauled at great fuel expense and xAK capacity he can't use to begin feeding his economy. Spending PPs to buy great leaders for PH is not a bad move either.

I'm not assuming an ability to hold Adak in the first 6 months. I'm advocating the retaking of it over Pearl once the forces are available for some retaking.

while I agree that some combat ships may be of extended value kept in TF at Pearl it's the plethora of support shipping that needs to evac. They die out of hand if disbanded in the port when it falls and serve no useful purpose in TFs in the Pearl hex, except to clog up the works, which some might see as gamey, but is arguably what would happen in RL if they were all stuck in the vicinity when the port falls.

Combat TFs in the hex are only viable as long as minimal air cover remains. Once the P40s are vanquished the hex is untenable for any TFs.

[Lowpe]

I don't like the idea of not fighting for Pearl. In fact, I don't like in general the Sir Robin strategy, but I do see the wisdom of it.

I had heard a Naval Historian from the War College talk about taking Pearl as the only viable strategy Japan should have pursued after Pearl Harbor. If they could take Pearl then there was a chance they could have negotiated a settlement to end the war.

But he thinks Army/Navy jealousy would have made taking Pearl impossible.

With the only political ramification here in the game AV; I am not sure what having Pearl does for Japan if you don't get AV. There are so many avenues to attack Japan, closing one avenue simply opens up others.

Don't worry, your time to kick the Japanese is coming.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I agree with withdrawing all or most of the air power. I'd leave the P-40s; in the long run they don't matter and they can cause some losses as well as force more KB aircraft to fly for damage and fatigue. I'd pull the patrol planes and Bolos, etc.

On ships I disagree with a mass sortie. Whatever he has left that can shoot should stay. If they run the KB plinks them for no gain. If they stay in PH, never leaving the hex, they force landings to be escorted by at least cruisers, and that exposes them to the CD, which is impressive. Repairs are at least Truk-distant. That's useful if only in time gained, and some will sink. The ships at Pearl are by definition pre-war; the USN in the long run won't miss them. Besides, as above, they're toast if they run.

Adak is a nice idea, but without investment of LCUs he doesn't have to spare it can't hold in the first six months. Hauling submarine fuel there is also risky. Subs will need to operate from the WC unless something south can be established, maybe out of the Canal. There are many islands south of Christmas that would be less risky than Adak and far more supply-able. For what good Mk 10 fish do, which is not much.

PH's best hope is forts. Every level will cost him in troops, but especially precious supply that must be hauled at great fuel expense and xAK capacity he can't use to begin feeding his economy. Spending PPs to buy great leaders for PH is not a bad move either.

I'm not assuming an ability to hold Adak in the first 6 months. I'm advocating the retaking of it over Pearl once the forces are available for some retaking.

while I agree that some combat ships may be of extended value kept in TF at Pearl it's the plethora of support shipping that needs to evac. They die out of hand if disbanded in the port when it falls and serve no useful purpose in TFs in the Pearl hex, except to clog up the works, which some might see as gamey, but is arguably what would happen in RL if they were all stuck in the vicinity when the port falls.

Combat TFs in the hex are only viable as long as minimal air cover remains. Once the P40s are vanquished the hex is untenable for any TFs.

We agree to disagree about Adak. If Japan takes it you need division-plus force to even have a chance of re-taking. Dutch/Urumchi is a much better investment and as good a sub base.

Support ships at PH die if they run. They might live if PH doesn't fall. Bad set of choices, but one has a chance of saving the VPs. Combat TFs in the harbor, with the shipboard AA changes, can contribute. Yes, most will sink. But if only 500kg bombs, many can dash into the yard and live. . . . if PH doesn't fall. If they run they die for nothing. As above, their main use is to force combat escorts for landings, which they don't do if they're running six hexes east.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I don't like the idea of not fighting for Pearl. In fact, I don't like in general the Sir Robin strategy, but I do see the wisdom of it.

I had heard a Naval Historian from the War College talk about taking Pearl as the only viable strategy Japan should have pursued after Pearl Harbor. If they could take Pearl then there was a chance they could have negotiated a settlement to end the war.

But he thinks Army/Navy jealousy would have made taking Pearl impossible.

With the only political ramification here in the game AV; I am not sure what having Pearl does for Japan if you don't get AV. There are so many avenues to attack Japan, closing one avenue simply opens up others.

Don't worry, your time to kick the Japanese is coming.

"Historians" like your guy make me ashamed I ever studied the subject. There is zero, zilch, nada chance the USA would have EVER negotiated with Japan after Dec. 7th. They could have landed in San Diego and there's no chance. None. Did I mention there was no chance? Housewives would have attacked IJA soldiers with butter knives before we would have negotiated.

Pearl should be fought for with everything available. But planes that can't fight and can disband should get out of Dodge. Everything else? To the ramparts!

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I don't like the idea of not fighting for Pearl. In fact, I don't like in general the Sir Robin strategy, but I do see the wisdom of it.

I had heard a Naval Historian from the War College talk about taking Pearl as the only viable strategy Japan should have pursued after Pearl Harbor. If they could take Pearl then there was a chance they could have negotiated a settlement to end the war.

But he thinks Army/Navy jealousy would have made taking Pearl impossible.

With the only political ramification here in the game AV; I am not sure what having Pearl does for Japan if you don't get AV. There are so many avenues to attack Japan, closing one avenue simply opens up others.

Don't worry, your time to kick the Japanese is coming.

"Historians" like your guy make me ashamed I ever studied the subject. There is zero, zilch, nada chance the USA would have EVER negotiated with Japan after Dec. 7th. They could have landed in San Diego and there's no chance. None. Did I mention there was no chance? Housewives would have attacked IJA soldiers with butter knives before we would have negotiated.

Pearl should be fought for with everything available. But planes that can't fight and can disband should get out of Dodge. Everything else? To the ramparts!

I agree with you that a negotiated peace wasn't in the offering no matter the number of casualties, but you are taking him out of context as he was commenting on Japanese strategies not Allied or American ones, and that taking Pearl and holding it against invasion or inflicting massive casualties was Japan's best hope to achieve a negotiated settlement. He never mentioned that it would work, just that it was a far better strategy than what they did in real life with a misguided Midway operation and having the KB in the Indian Ocean.

Michael Vlahos, Naval War College: He is on the John Batchelor show frequently, I listen to the odd podcast. Batchelor does good book reviews...here is a recent one that you might find of interest.

Sun 5/24/15 JBS: Operation Storm: Japan's Top Secret Submarines and Its Plan to Change the Course of World War II by John Geoghegan

The link: http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcasts?page=3

[Bullwinkle58]

I guess it was Japan's best hope in the sense that Bambi should have bitten Godzilla on the toe in that famous short rather than wait to be crushed.

"Owwwwww" . . . (sound of crushed deer meat.)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 15th-17th December 1941[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Sorry for the lack of updates. I´ve been prioritizing getting turns done over updating the AAR. Did I mention this cold I have is killing me too? [:)]

------------------------
PH
------------------------
We continue to dance around in the air. Sadly I can do nothing but lose eventually and on the 17th I did. I predicted heavy sweeps but instead the bombers that arrived last turn took off. Unescorted even. Could have been a slaughter. Instead I large portion of the Allied AF is hit on the ground. I lose 10 planes straight off and another 30 damaged. Not good.

I do get something something as consolation though... [:)]

TF 182 encounters mine field at Lahaina (182,108)

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima, Mine hits 1

TF 82 encounters mine field at Niihau (177,106)

Japanese Ships
DMS W-14
DMS W-13
xAK Anzan Maru #2, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

TF 89 encounters mine field at Lahaina (182,108)

Japanese Ships
DD Samidare
TB Kari
DD Nagatsuki, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yudachi

8 mines cleared

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lahaina at 182,108, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Yamagumo
DD Minegumo
DD Asagumo
xAK Seian Maru
xAK Tokusima Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Kosei Maru #4
xAK Yamagiku Maru, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Toyokawa Maru
xAK Konan Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Somedono Maru
xAK Kurohime Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Anzan Maru #2, Shell hits 1
xAK Chowa Maru

Allied Ships
PT-20
PT-21
PT-22
PT-23
PT-24
PT-25

And as the icing on the cake... [:)]

Sub attack near Niihau at 173,107

Japanese Ships
CV Shokaku, Torpedo hits 1 [&o][&o][&o]
DD Sanae

Allied Ships
SS Triton

Nothing that will sink her. But hopefully she will need to limp back to the HI for repairs. I don´t guess I have to tell you every single sub in the area will set full speed towards her location. I´ll also sortie everything with a gun that can reach the location during night. You never know...

While all this happens Mary and Penny sneaks out of PH. They reach a location 11 hexes south of PH and 11 hexes from the KB. If Nick decides to go after them he has a good chance of catching them. I can do 10-12 hexes though so he need to choose exactly the right decision or he will end up too far away. I just need to pick the right direction. South? West? East?

[Bullwinkle58]

The Death of a Thousand Cuts begins!

[Lokasenna]

What were the damage messages on the Shokaku? If you didn't see any of the following:

Severe Damage
Critical Damage
Listing, counter-flooding
...and so on

Then damage is most likely not severe. If you only saw "Belt armor penetration" and nothing else, then I'd say there's maybe a 50% chance that major damage is less than 10 points and she'll be hanging around. Without any of the above messages, anyway. Especially since there is no "on fire" in the combat report. Sys damage may not be high, either.

Still, it's something, I guess.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

What were the damage messages on the Shokaku? If you didn't see any of the following:

Severe Damage
Critical Damage
Listing, counter-flooding
...and so on

Then damage is most likely not severe. If you only saw "Belt armor penetration" and nothing else, then I'd say there's maybe a 50% chance that major damage is less than 10 points and she'll be hanging around. Without any of the above messages, anyway. Especially since there is no "on fire" in the combat report. Sys damage may not be high, either.

Still, it's something, I guess.

Only one I got was "severe damage". Not going to complain either way. I´m just gobsmacked I not only hit a CV but the torpedo exploded. [X(]

Also think Kirishima was hit pretty badly by that mine. Had a 2 ship TF listed as two BBs moving away towards the HI after that. Sent some subs to intercept but came up short.