Russians in Ukraine

[Tazak]

Regime change is regime change regardless of which outside major country is supporting either side and all media outlet covers basically what their country leadership wants them too (those that don't get called "anti-government")

Could the situation in Ukraine turn into Russia's Cuba missile crisis

[delete1]

Interesting review.

Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine,

Presenting a collection of essays by leading Russian and Ukrainian experts, Brothers Armed charts the history of military reform and progress in Ukraine and Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

http://www.russia-direct.org/reviews/9- ... ine-crisis

[delete1]

Another interesting one.

Ukraine is divided in two, with or without Russia

Mar 10, 2015 Alexey Fenenko OPINION

One year after Crimea was incorporated by Russia, signs of political, ethnic and territorial fragmentation are everywhere in Ukraine. If this continues, Ukraine could become a “frozen” state.

http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/uk ... out-russia

[ivanov]

ORIGINAL: Daniel Rincon

Another interesting one.

Ukraine is divided in two, with or without Russia

Mar 10, 2015 Alexey Fenenko OPINION

One year after Crimea was incorporated by Russia, signs of political, ethnic and territorial fragmentation are everywhere in Ukraine. If this continues, Ukraine could become a “frozen” state.

http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/uk ... out-russia

Interesting source, I was not aware of it's existence:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_Bey ... _Headlines

Seems a bit like Russia Today for professionals.


This is a nice investigative website:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and- ... an-convoy/

[delete1]

Sorry, this is the last one I promise. This complements and have another take on the same topic discussed at the above article. I have recently discovered this web site (Russia Direct.org). A nice place with analysis, reviews, opinions and etc...focused on Russia, US-Russian relations and so on. Claim to be fueled by a variety of experts from both sides and several different institutions worldwide (West and East). I am still exploring it, but seems quite interesting. Tons of articles.

To save Ukraine, the West must understand Ukraine

Mar 18, 2015 Yulia Karabkina OPINION

One year after Russia’s incorporation of Crimea, the Donbas is close to becoming a frozen conflict within Ukraine’s border. To prevent the further disintegration of Ukraine, the West first needs to understand how the Ukrainian crisis started and why it persists today.

http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/sa ... nd-ukraine

[delete1]

Indeed Katukov. Russia Direct looks interesting. I was not aware of its existence either untill recently. Does not feel biased in any way, at least we can find reviews with different point of views. I do know Russian Beyond the Headlines. Like that site as well, but I am starting to keep more and more with this Russia Direct one. Cheers...

Russia Direct

Russia Direct features articles, white papers and monthly memos that provide the kind of nuanced understanding required by those with a deep involvement and interest in U.S. and Russian foreign policy.

Russia Direct is a forum for experts and senior decision makers from both the United States and Russia to discuss, debate and understand the issues in U.S.-Russian relations from a sophisticated vantage point. Long-term, the goal of the project is to improve multilateral relations at the interpersonal, inter-agency and intergovernmental levels

[delete1]

Another interesting source of analysis, opinions and reviews. This not only focused on Russia:

http://www.realclearworld.com/

[Mad Russian]

ORIGINAL: Daniel Rincon

To save Ukraine, the West must understand Ukraine

I would say this is the biggest issue with any intervention anywhere in the world by any intervening force. Whether it's the US in Vietnam/Iraq or the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, Cuba in the Congo...whatever force is being applied to whichever situation.

Just going in and applying force to a situation rarely works well and never works as intended.

Good Hunting.

MR

[Rosseau]

I have followed some threads over at Battlefront that have been quite interesting regarding both sides of the conflict.

Anyway, CMBS is a truly deadly environment and I have become rather spooked and stopped playing it. FPRS is like a chit wargame that I can feel more comfortable and less creepy about playing right now.

[Pawsy]

Intervention wasnt going to happen (thankfully), Ukraine wasn’t in NATO so article 5 doesn’t apply. Lets hope the Politian’s can sort it out.

[ivanov]

http://www.janes.com/article/51295/sace ... two-months

NATO's assessment, he added, is that the Russian military's goal is to secure the gains made on territory already taken in the Ukraine Donbass region, as well as to deploy for the launch of a late spring attack. "Many of their [the Russians'] actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive," he said, adding that Russian forces' activities were not just exercises but "preparing, training, and equipping to have the capacity again to take an offensive."

The other is that Russia's military has moved to exert enhanced positive control on the battlefield over the formations of "separatist" combatants and to more closely integrate their actions with those of Moscow's regulars "because there was disunity in some of the earlier attacks. We do see a very distinct Russian set of command-and-control in the eastern part of Ukraine," he stated. "Command-and-control, air defence, support to artillery, all of these things have increased - making a more coherent, organised force out of the separatists."

The Russian use of "political agents, Spetsnaz, 'little green men', volunteers, and mercenaries provide a variety of low visibility insertion, sabotage, training, and advisory options" and mean it has been able to prosecute its action in Ukraine "…in such a way that allows some European nations to pretend that they cannot recognise the direct control of Moscow in this conflict," Karber said.

"We are probably looking at three potential scenarios at this point," said Karber. "One is that this situation stays as it is now: a frozen conflict with Ukraine partially dismembered and its economy in such disarray that it will never be eligible for EU membership - a central goal of Putin."

"The second scenario," he continued, "is that the Russian forces move out and occupy all of the Donbass [Lugansk and Donetsk] regions. They run up the separatist flag and say 'we play the Abkhazia/South Ossetia [Georgia] game again' and just declare these regions protectorates of Russia."

"The third option that could play out is Putin orders an all-out offensive and the Russian army swings south to take Dnepropetrovsk, Zapaprozhye, and Mariupol, which gives him the land bridge to the Crimea that he wants."

[ivanov]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32776198

[ivanov]

Check out this pretty comprehensive document.

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/2 ... _FINAL.pdf


This part is especially interesting:

A further example of such actions is the deployment of the Russian Ministry
of the Interior’s Dzerzhinskiy Division in the role of ‘barrier squads’ – punitive
action, anti-retreat troops – behind the lines of rebels and Russian regulars.
This has been reported at both the northern part of the rebel-controlled
territory near Debaltseve and near Mariupol on the southern operational
axis. On five identifiable occasions, detachments of the Dzerzhinskiy Division
have undertaken punitive action against Russian regulars; rebels have also
reported punitive actions by the Dzerzhiskiy Division against them.

[Jagger2002]

Check out this pretty comprehensive document.

I read most of the article. It makes quite a few claims as fact without any supporting evidence. So I wonder if Rusi is a government organization or private think tank? I notice the board of directors is a who's who of British establishment with some US military as well. That is not a good sign. What is the background of the author? How and from who is he getting this information and where is the proof? Is the document truly independent analysis or does it have an agenda? Lack of supporting evidence coupled with statements of fact is a real red flag for me.

I still remember Powell at the UN making bald statements of fact about Iraqi WMDs which were later proven false. Of course, it wasn't just Powell, it was everyone establishment. Anyway, because we have seen the "big lie" become the dominant mode of government and think tank communication over the last 10-15 years, I won't blindly accept on authority a document so specific on facts but so completely lacking in evidence. I am now from the "show me" state and this article doesn't really show me anything. I am very sceptical.

[bayonetbrant]

We make the case for Russian interventionism (from their point of view, of course) on episode #7 of The GrogCast

http://grogheads.com/?podcast=the-grogcast-episode-7

[ivanov]

ORIGINAL: Jagger2002

I read most of the article. It makes quite a few claims as fact without any supporting evidence.

I think that only the intelligence services could present some "evidence" or "proof" of Russian army involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. In my opinion they don't do it for two reasons. First, given the massive scope of Russian propaganda, any information could be immediately diluted and made insignificant, like it happened in case of the satellite photos showing the troops participating in the August invasion:


subir fotos gratis

Sure enough, the disinformation campaign, always starts along the lines: "they lied about Iraq, they are lying now [ the evil American imperialists ].

Secondly, US doesn't want to antagonize Russia any further, so the evidence is being withheld. For the same reasons, no lethal arms shipments have been approved for Ukraine.


As to the RUSI report, it doesn't show any evidence either, but I must say that it's pretty consistent with information I've managed to find online over the past year. If you really scrutinize what's available on the internet, you could easily identify the Russian army units that to various degree have been participating in the Ukrainian conflict. Of course much more information can be found in the Russian speaking internet ( for example by analyzing the social media frequented by young Russian soldiers ). I'll give you an example. In the late November 2014, pictures of troops from the 5th Independent Tank Brigade emerged. The unit permanent base is located in Ulan-Ude, in the Russian Far East:

https://en.informnapalm.org/news-deploy ... an-border/


imagen jpg

In February during the fighting around the Debalceve pocket, many videos showing Asian looking tankers on the separatist side surfaced. Then this video appeared, showing the T-72B3's equipped with the Sosna-U sights ( version used only by Russian army ):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkbVnpEbVwY

The immediate response of the separatist side was: "America supports Ukraine [ how?], so why Russia can't support us"?

And then this interview with a badly burned tanker from the 5th Brigade appeared. The soldier explains clearly, that at least one battalion combat group from the brigade went to fight to Ukraine:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b5e_1427019399



The Russian efforts to cover up it's army involvement are extensive. The reports, that the destroyed equipment had been removed from the battlefield and hauled back to Russia, were initially ridiculed until those photos appeared:


imagenes gratis

They show BTR's destroyed during the August incursion. They had been removed from the battlefield and brought back to Rostov base.


Last but not least meaning, there are various organizations of Russian mothers. Their goal is to look for dozens of soldiers who "went missing" during their military service. It's worth mentioning that those organizations have been declared in Russian as being anti-state and that they represent the interests of foreign powers...

[delete1]

+1 Jagger2002!

[ivanov]

Here they come:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/ ... K820150527

I think the most telling aspect of this new deployment is this one:

Many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues. As such, they match the appearance of some of the forces spotted in eastern Ukraine, which Kiev and its Western allies allege are covert Russian detachments.

[TheWombat_matrixforum]

ORIGINAL: katukov

Here they come:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/ ... K820150527

I think the most telling aspect of this new deployment is this one:

Many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues. As such, they match the appearance of some of the forces spotted in eastern Ukraine, which Kiev and its Western allies allege are covert Russian detachments.

And this just as Putin lambastes the US over the FIFA raids! It's all about football!

[ivanov]

According to the pro-russian sources, this is how the current separatist OOB looks like :

-Lugansk Armed Forces

2 Motor Rifle brigades
1 Motor Rifle batalion tactical group
1 Military Security Regiment
1 Spetsnaz / Reconnaissance battalion
2 Separate - "Ghost" brigade and 1st "Cossack" regiment

-Donesk Armed Forces:

7 Motor Rifle brigades
1 Artillery brigade
1 Military Security Regiment
1 Spetsnaz / Reconnaissance brigade
1 Republican Guard (3-6 separate BTG's used as strategic reserve)
3 Separate - Sparta, Somalia, Vostok BTG's

-Donesk Ministry of Interior

3 Security battalions
1 OMON Berkut battalion
1 SOBR Falcon (SWAT)

Those forces number about 45000 troops and poses the following quantities of equipment:

-500 tanks

-700 APC's

-800 artillery pieces.

http://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2015-05-22/1_ukraina.html

It's worth noting, that this is more tanks, than British Army, Bundeswehr, French Army, Italian Army or Spanish Army. When the rebellion started a little more than a year ago, it were mobs of thugs armed with clubs and baseball bats, with a support of Russian special forces, attacking the police stations and regional authority offices. Right now, they are one of the most heavily armed forces of Europe. Does anyone believe that it would be possible to arm, equip and supply this force without a help of Russia?

Recent video showing a column of BMP's rumbling through a city centre of Lugansk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dv9AnfNnMg