Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

You know I think there is probably a bug associated with ships being dead in the water and hit percentage. I've seen this result far too often as well. Now damaged ships which should be more mobile than ships dead in the water get hit at a much higher rate. I don't think being dead in the water is any reduction at all in hit percentage.

Very interesting, and I share your observation for aerial attacks, however, they are dead meat if one of my surface groups hits them. Missed by one hex this last turn, perhaps today....

It is a string message not to be totally relied upon as indicating completely stationery because there is no such thing as a ship being totally dead in the water in AE. The abstraction allows every TF to move at least 1 hex daily even if every ship in the TF has zero fuel and 99 engine damage.

Plus such a damaged ship may be billowing huge clouds of smoke which hides them from the bombers. Atmospheric conditions also play a part.

Then there is also the possibility that it has been turned into an Escort TF.

Alfred

[Lowpe]

Feb 15, 1944

North of Honshu, an encounter goes Japan's way...however, a further encounter south and the Americans sneak away.



Izard was named after a Navy Officer that helped burn the Philadelphia in Tripoli while at anchor....the most daring naval action according to Nelson.

[Lowpe]

Curious, and curiouser.

[Lowpe]

Well that is about all the joy there is for this day....

A CL/DD force shoots for a night engagement of the Deathstar, misses and then is hit hard at Pescadores. Only by a higher power are no ships sunk. The Heavy CAP at Shanghai proves worthless as the Deathstar goes west to Orchid Island, bombing ports and the CL/DD force and a hapless cargo ship (one this time).

Over in Ominato, the Allies sweep every base but Ominato, 1700 planes stand ready to strike the Allies and nobody flies. CVEs, BBs, and more are within easy reach, protected by less than 100 fighters. We drink sake instead.[:D]

The blocking division is shattered north of Hakodate, and his tanks pursue. Now he is one hex away from Hakodate.

Over Indochina, the 21st division arrives just in time to prevent a flanking attack west of Bangkok, that threatens the railroad line to Singers...2 British/Indian Brigades.

The only night bombing raid is on Hammatsu and is spoiled by KAI Dinahs and Petes and AA.[:)]

Indochina, I am really surprised at my ability to hold here, he is just pounding the troops mercilessly from the air, and if they are caught in the open it is rough, but the jungle rough terrain is our only boon here, and I am milking it for all it is worth.

[Lowpe]

So the lousy Americans have a 5 out of 13 DL on Ominato, and on the final screen before the end of the turn, there was no plane icon visible at Ominato.

Does this mean there is a chance he doesn't see 1700 planes?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

So the lousy Americans have a 5 out of 13 DL on Ominato, and on the final screen before the end of the turn, there was no plane icon visible at Ominato.

Does this mean there is a chance he doesn't see 1700 planes?

Yes. Hard to guess what he does see.

[Lowpe]

Turn is away, I will risk one more day at Ominato...probably a mistake, sure to be either night bombed back into dust or something else really bad will happen...don't feel good about, so that means it might work out!

Egads, I am going looney. Of course the entire area is covered in thunderstorms so who know what might happen!

Expecting the worst, but prepared for something better.[:D]

[Lowpe]

Feb 16, 1944

Some minor night bombing of Osaka...2000 feet, clear sky, and the Nicks at 6K actually intercept.

[Lowpe]

I am glad I had no hopes for the days attacks...sweeps go into Kushiro and meet all his fighters on CAP, the juicy target of CV, BB, CVE at Sapporo with about 110 fighters goes unchallenged, unswept.

Allies perform no sweeps, instead every fighter is set on CAP.

In the afternoon, I get one attack by a handful of Zekes. Of course, several 4Es attack during the day, we drop close to 20, but one wave get thru.

[Lowpe]

The Deathstar continues running down the coast of China, hitting ports and the stray cargo ship.

Can't seem to do anything right. My CAP traps fail, my bombers sit idle, every decision is two steps behind the allies.

Indochina holds, Allies bomb heavily the blocking position on the left flank in the jungle...I guess he is upset that his troops aren't cutting the railroad anytime soon. At what point will another big paratroop operation be in play?

[Lowpe]

Turn is away.

It is funny, how trashed I am getting. My biggest success is not having a sub sunk once located.[:D]

This must be going down and the absolute worst defense in 1944.[:D]

Really just running scared right now, I pulled back and about the only offensive them I am doing is hunting subs, and some worthless night bombing.

Even stopped chasing his deathstar with my subs. Too many clicks and they all go to the wrong area anyhow.[:D] His Deathstar, which isn't really a deathstar with a 2000 plane CAP is still running wild, it could go to Cam Ranh Bay, or Manila, or Hong Kong or Shanghai. There were four divisions at sea in harms way, but they have all but finished unloading and are safely ashore in China, Luzon, or Formosa.

Just getting kicked, and then kicked some more.

I am up to 152 B24J shot down, but with a total of 510 by the end of the month that gives him 358 in service.

Yesterday I also shot down 6 b24d1, raises my total there to 288 out of a potential 338.

I also shot down 2 Jugs, but still haven't destroyed more than 200 yet of them, and they seem to be everywhere even at Guam where they trashed some Tonies sweeping even. I figured for sure there would be second string fighters there.

Tomorrow I should upgrade another Sentai to Frank As', next month production most likely will start on the D4y4 at around 200 planes per month, and in April the second Jack with generous cannons comes on line.

I am starting to think I should have produced Anns all along, as a kamikaze here at the end for Army bomber squadrons. Would have, should have, could have...[:D]

Allies are back to targeting my Ha45 engines...I have good pools for now, at least 4 months worth, so I guess he could be targeting something worse. I still think he should target the night fighter factories first, and after a month or two there would be none left flying...but what he is doing isn't shabby either. It takes patience to run a night campaign, and the willingness not to get frustrated by weather, poor results, etc.,etc.

[Lowpe]

More fighter squadrons as reinforcements coming...also in one month now I get 2 more NF squadrons of 18 Irving Sa. And in June their radar gets activated.

[Lowpe]

Feb 17, 1944

No night bombing by the Allies.

Instead the 4Es hit the port Shimoneski, and Keijo where he nails some ships in port. I lose one xak, 2 ACMs, 2 10 knot SC, while he loses 6 B24s (two types), I am happy with the trade since my industry survives another day.

Goodness, though, look at these results against sweeping Lightnings! I will take it, and gladly.

Wakkakani falls on Hokkaido, we hold north of Hakodate, but he has 10 tank battalions there and he will simply wear me out. I did knock another American division to 100 AV or so, but the tanks keep coming and I don't have anywhere enough AT capability to stock him.

[Lowpe]

Allies spotted my carrier hideout...we shall see if he comes after them...

Got another new size 42 Fighter Squadron, upgraded them right away to Franks, and sent them to a fresh base by rail.

One of these days the fires may go out on Honshu, but then again, it will probably burn for the rest of the game. [:D]

10 AA units now at Tokyo, not enough, but better.

[Lowpe]

I figure I have one more month before he invades Honshu, maybe 2 months if I am lucky.

I have thought about sending 700 AV of troops around to the most likely beaches, have them sit for a week or longer, and then move them to another beach. Perhaps an additional 2 divisions will get him to pick a different beach and reset his prep. But, then again it might not work.

One thing, I definitely don't like, is that there are a lot of places for him to invade.[:D] In addition, rather than invading Honshu, he could go to establish an airbase on one of the Japanese Islands to close off western Honshu or even invade Korea.

But, I think he will go for the finish line and invade, his goal is to take Tokyo...

Here is a look at even more happy news...another Thunderbolt shows up in scant days. We will see how well Frank A can counter flying low. If I lose 3 for every 1 Jug I will be very happy. So far, we have not had a square off of Franks low versus sweeping Jugs. It will happen soon though.

[Lowpe]

Feb 18, 1944

Night bombing of Osaka and Gifu. At Gifu he targets more Ha 45 engine factories. 2 Manpower hits at Osaka, and 1 engine hit at Gifu. We damaged a bunch of B24s but didn't bring any down.

We manage to destroy more Allied planes again this turn, about 50. Not enough by far.

The Deathstar moves to Manila, Corsairs shred the 50 plane CAP and then his planes sink many cargo ships in port. At some point I guess he will run out of sorties. [:D] Unfortunately he spotted a troop transport and detached some surface ships, they probably will be chased down and sunk tomorrow (A HQ, and an Eng unit).

Also he has spotted large tanker convoys near Hanoi.

Lilly dive bombers prove they can hit YMS...just not destroyers.[:)]

[Lowpe]

The Allies keep shock attacking with their tanks, he has 10 tank units...and they force another retreat here. Hakodate can hold for a maybe a few days. I simply don't have the anti tank capability to stop him.

He brought more than a dozen tank units, 10+ divisions, and the most I was able to get onto Hokkaido was 3 divisions, 3 brigades and 2 tank regiments and 2 rapid fire 47mm units.

He really could have landed directly on Honshu, and skipped Hokkaido. I wouldn't have been able to stop him. Alfred is proved right again with Hokkaido falling, and he thinks an invasion of Honshu will occur in September. I disagree and think it will happen in a month or two.

Hachinohe is the most heavily defended port with only 937 assault value. I at least have been transferring over all the artillery from China that was bought out, the 3rd Tank Division is unloading now, but I will be extremely hard pressed to stop a landing of 5 divisions. But I will try!

[Lowpe]

Not a real happy picture. I have a whopping 15 divisions with which to defend Honshu with, 9 of the depot divisions, 2 others are not entire divisions yet.

I don't even have troops on every base yet, and some bases are protected only with the most skeleton of defenses.

I will get 3 divisions and 1 mixed brigade in the next 50 days. I will be able to buy some troops out from China, and have most of 2 divisions on Formosa, 1 division at sea south of Mindanao (at risk given the deathstar's location off Manila) and one division at Amoy.

So maybe I will have 20 divisions on Honshu when the invasion comes...pretty bleak.



In GreyJoy vs Radar, GreyJoy invaded in September; 6000 AV in Akita, 6000 in Hachinohe, 2000 at Hirosaki. Radar was able to counter with slightly more and hold the beaches with forts 5 despite daily BB bombardments. In addition, Radar had a whopping 8000 AV left as reserves and garrisons of the remaining ports. That is a lot of AV!

[Lowpe]

Allies have two British and one Indian brigade here in the jungle, and they aren't so tough without Allied tanks. Despite being bombed into the stone ages here, we hold easily and inflict double the casualties on him. Soon, he will realize he can continue moving southeast and try to cut the rail line, but my troops should get there well ahead of his.

Elsewhere, I have rotated fresh troops in and the exhausted divisions are rotating out to rest.

[vicberg]

If you want to gamble, I doubt that the coast north of Tokyo are targets. The terrain sucks for an invasion and he would have to march down through those mountains. The areas along the eastern coast and just south of Ominato/Hirosaki are most likely. I would cutoff those two ports with landings. Build up the bases if not already built up, and then land 1 hex away from Tokyo or simply march down.