Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I agree with Jocke, he cannot keep up with his losses. 300 Jugs to date is a lot, IMO.

How are your IJA and IJN fighter pilot pools?? About how many trained do you have in each??

I am planning on loosing 3000 fighters in the next 2 months, although I suspect at some point the Allies will stop sweeping.

It remains to be seen how well my pilot pools hold out. The IJN 9-12 month replacement pools is empty, but when I pull replacements they still start with close to 35 skill/experience which is a testimony to putting every TRACOM pilot there until NFs showed up. I get three more IJN NF squadrons within 9-30 days so that will pull out 70 or so pilots.

I really underestimated how massive the IJAAF fighter expansion is in March of 44. It seems like I needed a 1000+ pilots & planes between squadron expansions and new squadrons.

And in 20 days the new and improved Jack comes online with four cannons. She will be 4E killing machine, thanks to the SR2.

A lot of the rear area bomber protection squadrons, are basically on the job training for 55-60 trained pilots. They get to boost their experience flying CAP, are at little risk to enemy sweeps, but still can bring down the beasts in good numbers, well, such good numbers that those types of raids have stopped.

The frontline fighters, the Franks, Georges, still get 70 trained pilots. The Jacks, Zekes and Tony get 65+ while the Oscars get 55+. So fighter defense is comprised of three layers. Within Jugs range, Within Lightning ranges, Within bomber range. Within reason, fatigue, morale, size do play parts too.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I know he's been super aggressive, but he won't invade without massive air support surely?

He could lose a lot, and as has been said on the thread already, he doesn't need to.

Surely the aggressive tendencies will be tempered with a bit of realism?

I think it is in the Allies behavior, in their genes. Read Greyjoy AARs, he didn't have to invade Honshu, but he was here too and did.

The Allies have done just the big invasion, the bigger wrench. He will aim to invade multiple spots with 5-6 divisions each if he follows Greyjoys strategy.

I, on the other hand, would aim to cutting off Honshu somehow (a strike into the PI?) and destroying Japans industry everywhere I could get my bombers too. I think Hong Kong is within range of those really long legged British bombers for example. Medan, Singers, Saigon would be smoking ruins.

The only non-Honshu base he has really hit is Bangkok, and that a year and half ago.

[Crackaces]

Your point "I, on the other hand, would aim to cutting off Honshu somehow (a strike into the PI?) and destroying Japans industry everywhere I could get my bombers too. I think Hong Kong is within range of those really long legged British bombers for example. Medan, Singers, Saigon would be smoking ruins." Is very valid in my opinion.


In my opinion, one problem with the "Hokkaido Hurricane"(Striking the Northern Island before the IJ's economy ...especially supply has been depleted)
and especially in early 1944 where aircraft production is limited is the lack of bases and multiple approaches.

Simply, the Allies have forces a blunt battle of attrition and the IJ still have bullets, beans, and butts to attrite the Allies.

The Allies in this case have also helped the situation in my opinion by not staying focused on an overall strategic objective.
At first, they bombed manpower and worked on LI through fires .. then turned to hitting specific aircraft factories. Meanwhile the IJ continue to put up strong resistance.

[Lowpe]

March 8th, 1944

This month is shooting by.

No night bombing. Yeah, the weakness of my night defenses is that they are very brittle. I only have 5 squadrons, and they can only draw new planes infrequently. Plus, when a squadron changes bases it rarely flies CAP that first night. To a degree, this will improve with the arrival of 3 more squadrons relatively shortly.

No day bombing of Honshu. Well, he bombs Hachinohe's airfields. I would like to slap a 400 plane cap forward, but I fear putting them right into a bombardment. Perhaps today is the day since Ominato is at 1 point of runway damage. Hm...

Lots of sub battles, we definitely sunk two and damaged many more. Again it is the experienced ships making the kills. The new Super Es can't maintain contact with the subs to attack. It has got to be a crew experience thing...I handpicked their Captains and they are good. I may reform my ASW groups to include 1 super E and two experienced SC for example.

I did lose a W class E to the Yanks, 3VP, but it is a war of attrition and today was a good day. Twice as many Allied planes losses to Japan (15 to 6) plus 2 subs for one E. Another positive VP day (and they have been pretty scarce lately).

It has been several days since I have seen Jugs out in the Thailand front...I wonder if they upgraded to something else...and speaking of that area the Allies have got to be about done shifting troops for whatever that strategy is? I have 4 Divisions in Reserve waiting to react. Bonus, my Zekes flew LRCAP, but the Allies didn't even sweep (they didn't bomb either) perhaps it is time to try for a big LRCAP tomorrow?

[Lowpe]

More ASW goodness, those experienced crews know what they are doing!:

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
The Allies in this case have also helped the situation in my opinion by not staying focused on an overall strategic objective.
At first, they bombed manpower and worked on LI through fires .. then turned to hitting specific aircraft factories. Meanwhile the IJ continue to put up strong resistance.

Shhh! Nobody tell him![:)]

It is hard to keep focus, I see it my Downfall game.

[ny59giants]

Considering the amount of losses the Allied have had, he may be trying to shift his best airframes to Hokkaido rather than keep them in Thailand/Burma front. Thus, his downgrades to older airframes and has to wait about a week before they become available elsewhere.

[Lowpe]

Turn is away, sending out CAP and LRCAP forward to nail some of bombers/ftrs.

I don't have Bihoro currently under observation, but I think/feel another invasion force is ready to launch from there. Betting the target is going to be Akita or Hachinohe or both. This next turn I will vector some search there and suffer the losses to see for sure. Perhaps it only invasions to take Etorofu, but I doubt it.

I have two divisions arriving at Fusan today, and a third division loading up at Amoy, and two regiments just bought out at Shanghai on their way to Fusan, plus base forces, AA, engineers, all on the way. I hope I can get them to Honshu soon enough...

I think I might rail my reserve troops forward...

Hopefully, I can really nail some Allied bombers this next day!

[Lowpe]

I can buy troops out of China for a fraction of the PP cost by putting them into the 11th Air Flotilla, which is what I am doing.

By September, if no invasion has occurred before then, I need well over 20K AV in Honshu. 9 Divisions and 4 Brigades arrive in the next 60 days (some a little longer since they spawn originally in Hokkaido). Needless to say they will all go to Honshu defense.

2 Divisions are on trains almost at Fusan, another is loading on transports at Amoy. There is another in Manila I may bring back.

Some of the bigger CD units are back on Honshu, most of the 3rd Spcl, and Wake CD units for example. Several of the multi 12cm & 8cm gun units are back too with more arriving.

But it will take tanks and artillery, and more artillery to stop Allied tanks. Figure there will be at least 10 tank units in the invasion.



That should read less than 10K AV on Honshu.

[Lowpe]

March 9, 1944

No night bombing. Sink a Yank submarine.

During the day, the LRCAP trap in Thailand is shredded by the flying Jugs sweeps. I mistakenly flew them higher, since the Jugs had been absent for several days. Still 5 Jugs destroyed, not a great ratio, but I will take each dead Jugs I can get.

Over at Hirosaki we fare better. The CAP there was very low, some of it starting at 1K (the Oscars) and they were still able to attack the bombers sometimes. The lower altitude limited the amount of damage done to the bombers, but a good day overall.

Also at Hirosaki, the first sweep was by F4U-1 that flew at 12K. Allies are responding to my very low CAP by flying lower himself, although he still keeps the Jugs up high (in Thailand for today).

Any day where I destroy more Allied planes than I lose in 1944 has got to be a good day. Plus Japans industry is intact for another day!

[Lowpe]

Going defensive this turn in the air. First squadron of D4Y4 is upgraded.

My flanking attack north of Rahaeng, has caused the Allies to try and block the isolation by a shock attack across a river. We shall see if I can make him pay for the attack.

Getting a little worried in Indochina, moving reserves to Bangkok, reinforcing the jungle, debating about pulling back the 1st Tank Division, even though it has forts 3 to act as a more mobile reserve.

[Lowpe]

Some nice reinforcements coming.

My vehicle pools are effectively 0.[X(] So far I have lost 5 points of vehicle factories.

My tank shortage isn't that bad, perhaps 60 tanks mostly in two shattered units in Indochina. However, I am short about 700 motorized support almost all in HQ units. I have turned of replacements globally for all HQs...and will turn it back on for those with foot support.

So today I shut down all replacements to any unit that might take vehicles so as to build up a pool, it is at 71 now!, for the upcoming new Tank units coming in as reinforcements.

I also need to think about the great new tanks that come online in June, which is coming very quickly!

Can't believe how fast 1944 is going, and I am continue to prepare for multiple division invasion on Honshu. I think the last of the major withdraws from the front lines are arriving in Shanghai/Fusan/Honshu.

Still no Allied search in Port Moresby, PI, Okinawa, Bonins, Kuriles, Oz, SRA, Sumatra. All this points to an invasion of Honshu as being the strategy the Allies are pursuing! We will meet them on the beaches when they come!

[Lowpe]

My Kuriles surprise! Excellently trained kamikazes flying Helens. They have some Oscars for escort, some Babs flying naval search, plus three Iboats with Glens patrolling the strike area. One day they will get lucky I hope.

The Allies have no search on Paramushiro.

[Lowpe]

Trying to nail some cheap Allied ships here that are acting as pickets. They are AMs or SC or something like that.

If the planes don't fly then I will boost the CAP tomorrow for the anticipated 4E strike.

I need to figure out what to do about supply across the Empire...some places can still act as thorns in the side of the Allies and will need more.

[Lowpe]

March 10, 1944

No night bombing. Lose a SC to an American Sub.

6 Sweeps of Tokyo...this means 4Es are on the way!

[Lowpe]

Yep...

[Lowpe]

Jugs comes last...

[Lowpe]

3-1 Losses, maybe a little less with the 4Es counting twice.

Had way too many planes destroyed on the ground...flying troops out of Etorofu. My bad.

Runway damage is at 70.[X(]

[Lowpe]

We will see how heavily Tokyo can get damaged this turn, only two squadrons on CAP at Tokyo, everything will have to come in from adjacent bases, which might be good or it might be bad.

Generally I get good radar warning for the bombers, which means maybe more planes will bleed over for the bombers rather than for the sweeps. I expect 70 Jugs on sweeps since they didn't suffer too much yesterday.

I raised my CAP altitude we will see how that goes.

Allies targeted and destroyed a small size 20 Frank factory at Tokyo, plus knocked down the Irving Sa factory by 17. A few points on the refinery.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

hey Lowpe, thanks for this detailed AAR. Just spent a good amount of time catching up on it. I'm in a May 1944 game as the Japanese and i'm rushing reinforcements to Hokkaido and the Kuriles after reading this!

Its not easy playing Japan from 1944 on no matter what, but it is a special challenge, an exercise in being the "frustrator" and not the frustrated. One of my best PBEM game opponents was a master at playing Germany in 1944-45, and somehow no matter how dire it looked would make the right moves to leave me just shy of Berlin by May 1945. And so he "won." The Allied player has to accumulate a massive amount of VP's to actually win and outshine the historical result. There were 78 successful amphibious landings in the Pacific, an unbelievable feat of logistics, luck and determination. The American mobilization and war effort is truly incredible to contemplate. To do better than Nimitz & Halsey & MacArthur is very difficult, even in this strategy game!


From the manual:

17.1 VICTORY LEVELS

War in the Pacific, Admiral’s Edition™ can end in either a Decisive or Marginal Victory for
one side, or in a draw. Victory Levels are displayed at the end of the game and determined as
follows:

»» Allied Decisive Victory: Allied VP Score is 1.75 times (or
greater) higher than the Japanese VP Score
»» Allied Marginal Victory: Allied VP Score is 1.25 to 1.74
times higher than the Japanese VP Score
»» Draw: The Allied VP Score or Japanese VP Score is 1 to
1.24 times higher than their opponent’s score
»» Japanese Marginal Victory: Japanese VP Score is 1.25
to 1.74 times higher than the Allied VP Score
»» Japanese Decisive Victory: Japanese VP Score is 1.75
times (or greater) higher than the Allied VP Score

17.1.1 VICTORY AFTER 1945

If the game ends in 1946 when the scenario time expires (as opposed to ending due to an
Automatic Victory), the Victory Level moves two levels in the Japanese player’s favor.
Example: scenario 15 ends when time expires in March 1946 with the Allies having 1.8 times
the Japanese points. Normally this would be a Decisive Allied Victory, but since it is ending due
to time expiring in 1946, it shifts to a Draw.

17.1.2 USING ATOMIC BOMBS

If the Allies use 3 or more atomic bombs during the game, then the level of victory moves 1
level in favor of the Japanese. This is in addition to the 2 level move if the game ends with
the time expiring in 1946. If the player achieves a Decisive Victory having used more than 3
A-bombs, then the Allies win a Marginal Victory.
If the game ends on its own due to time expiring in 1946, and 3 or more Atomic Bombs have
been used, the best Victory Level the Allied player