Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]January 21st 1942[/font]
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Yet another slow one...

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China
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Looks like Nick has decided where to make his major attempt.

Ground combat at 82,47 (near Ichang)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 14035 troops, 164 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 1409

Defending force 24109 troops, 155 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 633

Assaulting units:
6th Division
39th/A Division
14th Ind.Mixed Brigade
9th Armored Car Co
13th Division
13th Tank Regiment
39th/B Division
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion

Defending units:
2nd Chinese Corps
45th Chinese Corps
67th Chinese Corps

Doubt I can hold against this. I missed that it was a 50k troop limit. So well picked spot by Nick. Its a WR hex and all three Corps have x3 forts...but I don´t think its enough.

Another attack on the road to Ankang.

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 24162 troops, 240 guns, 146 vehicles, Assault Value = 677

Defending force 26753 troops, 112 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 553

Japanese adjusted assault: 304

Allied adjusted defense: 829

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
980 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 24 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 3 disabled
Vehicles lost 36 (22 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
426 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 70 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd Ind Engineer Regiment
5th Armored Car Co
15th Tank Regiment
37th Division
4th Ind.Mixed Brigade
41st/B Division
1st Army
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
59th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
22nd Group Army
33rd Group Army

He is slowly grinding me down. I have reinforcements on their way.

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DEI
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The Japanese CA TF continues West into the Java Sea. I´m trying to get Force Z into position for a night attack but Japan is starting to get some good search up making this really hard without showing myself.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]January 22nd 1942[/font]
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To beginning of the end in China

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China
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As predicted the attack comes.

Ground combat at 82,47 (near Ichang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 43709 troops, 380 guns, 128 vehicles, Assault Value = 1410

Defending force 24158 troops, 155 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 632

Japanese adjusted assault: 1217

Allied adjusted defense: 1171

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1001 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 55 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Vehicles lost 23 (6 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1429 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 188 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Assaulting units:
9th Armored Car Co
6th Division
39th/A Division
14th Ind.Mixed Brigade
13th Tank Regiment
13th Division
39th/B Division
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion

Defending units:
2nd Chinese Corps
45th Chinese Corps
67th Chinese Corps

He will route the units next attack. This is really bad news for me.

Nick continues to grind down the Chinese units on the road to Ankang. Its taken him just 2 weeks to wear them down. [:(] God, I hate China.

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DEI
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The Salmon misses 4 TTs against a DD escorting a AO.

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Malaya
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Last allied resistance surrenders. This frees up the 18th ID for him.

[obvert]

I don't think that vector for attack near Ichang is going to work out for him. I wouldn't have defended where you did at first, on a gray road, but even if he does push you back there he's then got no roads and a river to cross. That will be a disaster for him if you can get some more troops in the area. He just can't sustain an attack through this territory all of the way into the center.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I don't think that vector for attack near Ichang is going to work out for him. I wouldn't have defended where you did at first, on a gray road, but even if he does push you back there he's then got no roads and a river to cross. That will be a disaster for him if you can get some more troops in the area. He just can't sustain an attack through this territory all of the way into the center.

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part. Missed that it was a 50k hex too.

I hope you are right about the rest...It has me quite worried.... [X(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]January 23rd-25th 1942[/font]
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Got three turns down yesterday. No time to update until now though.

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DEI
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Nick lands a lot of reinforcements on Java. I tried to sortie what was left of the Dutch AF but we only managed 2 hits on two different ships.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kalidjati at 50,99

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A5M4 Claude x 5
A6M2 Zero x 6
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 8

Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 15
139WH-3 x 3
B-339D x 8
CW-22 Falcon x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Buffalo I: 1 destroyed
139WH-3: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-339D: 2 destroyed
CW-22 Falcon: 1 damaged
CW-22 Falcon: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
xAK Nikki Maru, Bomb hits 1
xAK Hino Maru #3
BB Haruna
xAK Hukusei Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AK Tosan Maru

This means I probably have about 3-4 weeks left on Java. I´ve already been forced to start pulling some of the Navy out. I can´t reload TTs or refuel. This severely limits my staying power.

Force Z and the CVs are critical on fuel. I have a little coming but not enough. I´ll probably have to pull Z back. Dutch Navy is already heading to CT due to damage.

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China
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Major action here as Nick makes his attack. At Ichang we hold 2 attacks but on the third my troops fold.

Ground combat at 82,49 (near Ichang)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 28951 troops, 273 guns, 28 vehicles, Assault Value = 874

Defending force 20241 troops, 76 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 563

Japanese adjusted assault: 1176

Allied adjusted defense: 46

Japanese assault odds: 25 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1178 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 100 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
4591 casualties reported
Squads: 249 destroyed, 73 disabled
Non Combat: 221 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd Division
34th Division
1st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
73rd Chinese Corps
99th Chinese Corps

We did manage to inflict some 500 Japanese disablements so he should have to rest a week or two before being back at full strength. Now its a race for the next hex. Because of the river crossing I should get there first?

Nick also tried to break through towards Ankang. We held firm.

Ground combat at 83,45 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22907 troops, 240 guns, 37 vehicles, Assault Value = 613

Defending force 26087 troops, 111 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 481

Japanese adjusted assault: 308

Allied adjusted defense: 2002

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 6

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2294 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 203 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled

Allied ground losses:
345 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Assaulting units:
37th Division
4th Ind.Mixed Brigade
41st/B Division
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Army
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
59th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
22nd Group Army
33rd Group Army

My troop that for some undisclosed reason went due E instead of NE (was shown as moving NE) are mauled. 380 squads lost. [:(]

Here is a crappy map of the situation!

PS. Sorry for the drop in quality of the AAR lately. Should be back at normal standard once the kitchen is done.

[Yakface]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


Here is a crappy map of the situation!

Map actually looks quite good......so I'm thinking more 'map of the crappy situation'

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Yakface
Map actually looks quite good......so I'm thinking more 'map of the crappy situation'

[:D]

[obvert]

If there is any way at all to bomb his troops about once every 4-5 turns for the next few weeks, definitely do it. You have to get to that hex first!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert

If there is any way at all to bomb his troops about once every 4-5 turns for the next few weeks, definitely do it. You have to get to that hex first!

Yupp, going to try! The mighty Chinese air force will sortie! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Losing PH[/font]
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With at least the 2 Japanese IDs prepping for PH I think its safe to assume I will be playing at least a portion of this game without PH. This might sound dramatic but it really isn´t that bad.

All my convoys are now sailing off map (for the most part). This of course adds travel time but instead makes it a really safe journey. Balboa is the current hub of allied shipping. Port Stanley will be added to the network to ease congestion at Balboa.

WC is pretty much emptied of shipping. This is done preemptive since KB raiding of the WC is likely after Japanese take control of it. All of the restricted WC planes are deployed forward. Pickets will be placed 8-12 hexes from the WC as well as subs.

The really bad news is that Nick will bag almost 600.000 units of fuel when he captures PH. That is REALLY bad and will likely cover his expenses and then some.

The good news is that he will need a huge garrison to cover PH and the surrounding Islands. All the Hawaiian island + Christmas + Midway will probably require 4-6 IDs to cover properly. It will also tie up the KB in its defense.

From a VP perspective I´m not sure this was a good move. He will gain something like 5-6k VPs from the troops and PH itself including the BBs. But he has probably lost around 500 VPs in planes and ships so far (x4 that is 2000 AV he has to make up). More will likely come in the landing. It has also tied up most of the IJN including the KB at this crucial early days.

BUT. This might only be the first step in something bigger. In which case the relative meager VP net gain (from an AV perspective) might be made up in the second phase.

The only 2 things I can think of that makes sense if this is just a first step is either a WC invasion (unlikely) or a Canadian invasion without triggering the WC emergency reinforcements. Interestingly I asked Nick a while back if I was allowed to use WC restricted troops in Canada. He said I was (if done reasonably). This means I could theoretically use much of the WC restricted troops in the defense of Canada. That is roughly 10 IDs worth of troops. Far more then the Japanese can handle. So this seems unlikely too.

More likely is probably a "full Pacific" operation where Nick will grab everything down to Tahiti. If that is his goal I´m not sure grabbing PH was the right move. But I guess time will tell. Nick is a very good player with a solid grasp of the game. So whatever he is going to do is well thought out.

And I´ve been wrong before! [;)] At least I´ve learned from my game with Tom that the Allies cannot defend against a full Japanese commitment into SOPAC. So if he comes I´ll just put some roadblocks into place to force a big commitment but I won´t fight to the death for it. As long as I avoid AV I´ll have 3 years to take it back.

Now back to the kitchen! [:(]

[JocMeister]

Definitive PH invasion coming. I now have 4 IDs prepping for PH!

I´ll try and get an update up tonight.

[Lowpe]

How much do you have on the roads to Chengting?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How much do you have on the roads to Chengting?

Going by memory (writing on the phone) something like 2500-3000 AV.

[BBfanboy]

I am not so sure that the Japanese will get that fuel. With engineers among your troops and level 5 forts the fuel may be torched in the final battle. I have seen this happen with fuel and supply stocks in my sandbox game where I can see what each side gains after a conquest. I know some of the supply loss is just military stuff the other side cannot use, but sometimes all the stock gets destroyed which would include food, fuel in drums, tents, medical supplies and other items usable by either side.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I am not so sure that the Japanese will get that fuel. With engineers among your troops and level 5 forts the fuel may be torched in the final battle. I have seen this happen with fuel and supply stocks in my sandbox game where I can see what each side gains after a conquest. I know some of the supply loss is just military stuff the other side cannot use, but sometimes all the stock gets destroyed which would include food, fuel in drums, tents, medical supplies and other items usable by either side.

I hope you are right! Would suck to leave all that fuel for him.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]January 26th-31st 1942[/font]
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This update will cover 6 days. I havn´t had time to update since Nick has been hurling turns at me. The reason for this became obvious when he landed at PH on the 31st!

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DEI
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Not really much happening here. Japanese have reinforced Java and is slowly working their way across the island.

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China
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The race for the 2 hexes continues. Nick bombs me with everything he has. He made a small mistake though and started bombing Sian without escort. AVG jumped in and shot down 18 bombers.

Nick in turn intercepted Chinese bombers trying to bomb his troops to knock them out of move mode. No Chinese losses though! I´m moving more of the AVG into China.

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Burma
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A unit has entered the Northern jungle 1 hex West of Katha. Only 1 unit listed and I´m trying to figure out what it is. Nick also abandoned the advance on Lashio. I bought out the 6th Chinese Corp and they are defending together with the BFF BDE . Only 180 AV though.

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Pearl Harbor
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The landing comes. CD guns are embarrassingly ineffective. An example.

Pre-Invasion action off Pearl Harbor (180,107) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

1118 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
BB Yamashiro
CL Sendai
DD Yudachi
xAKL Kumakawa Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Kurama Maru, Shell hits 1
DD Ikazuchi
xAKL Hakuyo Maru
PB Busho Maru
AMC Asaka Maru
xAK Toei Maru
xAKL Hinode Maru
xAK Kurogane Maru
xAKL Ina Maru
xAKL Kennichi Maru
xAKL Tenposan Maru

Japanese ground losses:
1092 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 58 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 20 (1 destroyed, 19 disabled)

So out of 1118 shots fired 13 hit... Nick will lose some xAKLs and possibly some AMC (they ran into a mine field). Some DMSes also got chewed up badly trying to clear mines. I estimate he lost some 5000 casualties in the landing. But 99.5% of those are only disablements and will recover quickly....so no lost VPs. Only a PB lost to mines. [8|]

Nick got 2300 AV ashore almost unhurt. He will probably need a week to recover some disablements and get FAT/DIS down.

Defending units:
10th Tank Regiment
21st Division
21st Ind Engineer Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
3rd Ind Engineer Regiment
33rd Division
4th Tank Regiment
65th Brigade
4th Division
7th Tank Regiment
16th Division
48th Division
Kure 2nd SNLF
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
12th JNAF AF Unit /26

So PH will fall in February. KB also showed up for the show and sank the remaining BBs in harbor. Good news is that this leaves Nick with very little "to spare". No 2nd phase coming anywhere until PH is cleared. The longer I can hold here the longer before he moves the hammer somewhere else. PH will probably fall mid/late February (depending on how the first attack goes). That leaves him only a month before the landing bonus expires. If he misses that he will have to wait for prepp which would be me even more time.

[JocMeister]

Question for the Jap players reading.

- What kind of garrison would you keep at PH + surrounding Islands? What is reasonable to expect?
- Is it possible for Nick to pursue another major operation before the landing bonus expires? Speculating that PH will fall mid to late February.
- Does this effectively lock the KB to the Hawaiian islands or would you count on LBA to be enough to stop a major allied landing?

[KenchiSulla]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
- What kind of garrison would you keep at PH + surrounding Islands? What is reasonable to expect?
At least two divisions. Note that he will have a very hard time to stock all the bases with troops. His focus will be PH
- Is it possible for Nick to pursue another major operation before the landing bonus expires? Speculating that PH will fall mid to late February.
Define major.. He'll be able to attack elsewhere but ofcourse the majority of his troops are tied to Pearl for now
- Does this effectively lock the KB to the Hawaiian islands or would you count on LBA to be enough to stop a major allied landing?
Initially he won't KB there. Later, when he is transitioning to defense he should not keep KB there - it is to remote....

[Barb]

My personal opinion about garrisoning PH: 1 reinforced ID at Pearl, at least one reinforced ID at Hawaii, plus some SNLFs or 65th Bde at Lahaina, Lihue, ...
Total strength of about 3 Divisions.

KB will now probably operate near PH to prevent any allied interference, but will not hang around for long. It is needed for other operations in the south. However PH can become main refueling-replanishment-repair base in the eastern Pacific for KB.

So if you are thinking about retaking it - go in BIG, with the "kitchen sink" and be sure the wolf is not in the lair!

[Alfred]

You should read these posts from October 2010
 
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2518166&mpage=10&key=Pearl%2CHarbor
 
#271
 
#284
#297
#306
#308
 
Putting aside the logistics aspect, and that is not entirely an insurmountable obstacle, Japan does not have to commit large forces to garrison the Hawaiian Islands.  Only Pearl Harbor needs to be held in force and a single division suffices for that purpose once forts have been built up.  A good allocation of aviation support plus an Air HQ would also be required.  The other islands can be garrisoned by Naval Guard units primarily.
 
Alfred