Avoiding the Turkeyshoot – Marianas Scen Justus2 (J) vs nardiajn (A)

[Justus2]

1 JULY

After the last couple quiet turns, July opens with a flurry of sub attacks, which generally do not go my way. [:(] RO-43 is sunk patrolling SE of Pagan. I damage one of his subs near Babel, and sink an AM near Eniwetok. However, SS Cod methodically sinks the two xAKs I was sending to Truk (to siphon some fuel), hitting each with 2 torps in separate attacks.

[Justus2]

While it wasn’t a good day below the surface, however, it was a great day in the clouds. My FT ships didn’t unload fast enough at Tinian, so they were caught by a couple strikes from one of his CVTFs. My CAP did a great job, getting 3-1 kill odds, and my CL captain deserves a medal for dodging all those dive bombers! [8D]

[Justus2]

Ground attacks continue at Pagan, disruption seems to be taking a toll, but I’m still losing lots of casualties. Mostly disabled, I swap one of my LCU leaders to help recover. Forts at Pagan only go up 3%. I am going to try a shore bombardment with a couple cruisers, to see if they can disable or destroy some of his tanks, otherwise I will just have to sit and suffer. [8|] Tinian is up to 59% toward getting level 3 forts back.

KB (and the CVLs) make it back to Pelielu. I shuffle some air groups around, while I put Shokaku in port to repair the sys damage. My plan is to use the CVL group to head toward Truk (using a further south route to avoid subs), and raid shipping between Eniwetok and the front, while keeping KB (-) nearby to take advantage if his main CVs go after the CVLs.

[Justus2]

2 JULY

This turn opens and closes at Pagan. My cruisers conduct their night bombardment, not really sure what results I was expecting. Knowing his force is mostly tank units, I didn’t expect a lot of casualties. I disabled 21 vehicles (don’t know if they are tanks or mot. support though), and a few guns.

The turn ends with ground combat, but he selected bombardment instead of direct attack, so I can’t directly compare the results. His raw AV went down (56 yesterday to 45 today), that’s a hopeful sign. We’ll have to see what happens on his next attack.

[Justus2]

Well, this turn I gave back the air advantage, due to a stupid mistake on my part. When I was shuffling air groups from my CVs yesterday, I moved a Jill and a Judy squadron to Guam, but forgot to reset their range setting. [X(] The worst part is, I realized it this morning, but I had already sent the turn last night! So all day I was dreading what would happen…. [8|]

The first sortie sends 8 Jills into a buzzsaw of Allied CAP – that never ends well. [:'(] Looking over the combat report, I see CAP from 9 different VF groups, so looks like two different CVTFs in range. This was followed by three more sorties of Jills and Judys, some close enough to get escorts from Tinian, which let a few through (but also cost me more Zeros). All I have to show for it is a couple bomb hits on an AO, and an air loss screen that’s the mirror image of yesterday: 4-1 losses against me.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 110,94
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16
D4Y2 Judy x 2
Allied aircraft
FM-1 Wildcat x 5
F6F-3 Hellcat x 33
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed
D4Y2 Judy: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
CAP engaged:
VF-1 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters to 12000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
3 planes vectored on to bombers
VF-16 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 3 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 15000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
VF-26 with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 3 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 11000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
VF-28 with F6F-3 Hellcat (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 14000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 14000.
Raid is overhead
VF-32 with F6F-3 Hellcat (6 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 13000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 13000.
Raid is overhead
VC(F)-33 with FM-1 Wildcat (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 12000.
Raid is overhead
VF-35 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
VRF-6F with F6F-3 Hellcat (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 12000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
4 planes vectored on to bombers
VF-31 with F6F-3 Hellcat (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 12000.
Raid is overhead

[Justus2]

Here’s the situation at the end of the turn. You can see a CVTF and CVE TF NE and SE of Saipan, and the big CVTF further east. There are two smaller DD-heavy TFs just off the coast of Tinian (the targets for my ill-planned sorties), they may be getting ready to land another wave.

I don’t have much to interfere at the moment, CV Hiyo with a CVL is at Yap headed NE, KB is just leaving Pelieleu after rearming. And obviously, I don’t have any of the small LBA left to speak of. I considered shifting some of my Betties up to Guam, but I know how well they fare against CAP, and they are more useful to me now as search aircraft. They will truly fly attack missions as a last resort. If its really just DDs/APDs, they will be in and out quickly anyway.

I have another FT TF with supplies loaded at Ulithi, they will position NE of the island and look for an opportunity to run in to Guam (Tinian will probably be too hot for a while). There is a small TF w/LCIs north of Truk, I’m trying to vector my subs after that one. [:D]

[Chickenboy]

What are your plans for that Cl/DD FF TF? Remember that he can 'shoot the gap' between Saipan and Anataman and be in range for an attack on any ship near Saipan. Since it looks like he's brought his big carrier stick out, it may be time for you to give him some room and spare your carriers a direct confrontation.

[Justus2]

The plan for the TF is to run the supplies into Guam (full speed, should arrive at night and get out in the morning). One thing I think held them up before is I forgot to set them to Do Not Refuel, so it burned ops points trying to fuel up. Tinian (and now Saipan, based on the turn I just got) are too hot to move supplies in there. I am pulling Hiyo back to link w/KB further west until I see what's going on, it'll make more sense after I post the latest turn.

Edit: One quick preview, though - Always a scary sight! [X(]

[Justus2]

3 JULY

The turn opened with a scare (shown above), but luckily all six miss. My escorts miss too.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jul 03, 44
Sub attack near Ulithi at 99,95
Japanese Ships
CV Hiyo
DD Michishio
DD Nowaki
Allied Ships
SS Darter
SS Darter launches 6 torpedoes at CV Hiyo
Darter diving deep ....
DD Michishio fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Nowaki fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Michishio attacking submerged sub ....
DD Michishio fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Michishio fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Michishio fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

The real action begins with Al landing at Saipan for the first time. The CD guns get in some good hits (several were penetrating or internal explosions, I heard a sinking sound after the second round). [:D] Second phase showed a duel between the ships and CD guns, but no further unloading.

Based on the bombardment screen at the end of the turn, the only unit landed was 22nd Marine Rgt, and not much of the AV got ashore. Looking at the high disruption totals, I am guessing they weren’t well prepped for Saipan. I am going to gamble a bit, and order a deliberate assault for next turn. BANZAI!

I know AV doesn’t account for firepower, but if he is this heavily disrupted, and only has one Rgt, I may be able to inflict severe casualties. I’ve got a full division and a couple more Rgt-sized units, and this time I have a couple tank units on my side. We’ll see what happens. I have level 6 forts here, so I think I will be able to hold out a while regardless.

[Justus2]

He also lands some LSTs at Tinian, which provides the highlight of the turn, shown in the lower right screenshot: an AO that was part of his TF is firing to suppress the CD guns! [:D]

As day broke, the Hiyo and Ryuho launch a rag-tag strike group at his LSTs. Zeros tangle with the Hellcats and give a decent account (I lose 9 to his 7, plus a couple Jills), but my remaining aircraft ignore the LSTs and AO and focus on missing his DDs. [8|]

The ground bombardment reveals he landed part of the 4th Marine Rgt, which was formerly used to take Ponape. Raw AV total increases by 55. But the best news is at the end of the turn:

Tinian expands fortifications to size 3 [:)]

[Justus2]

At Pagan, he resumes the deliberate attacks, same results: bad odds, but I suffer more casualties. He is showing negative modifiers for disruption and fatigue now, maybe he will have to take a longer rest.

I know I am mostly playing for time in this scenario, the longer I can hold out, the harder it will be for him to mount an effective assault on Guam or Saipan. I have another FT TF ready to run supplies into Pagan, and I move a CA/2DD TF off to the north in case I see an opportunity to attack a couple LSTs that seem headed toward Pagan.

In the south, I pull Hiyo back to the NW, to link up w/KB about 14 hexes west of Pagan. He still has his CVs near Saipan. I considered trying to hit his landing forces, but it seems like they already unloaded, so I didn’t think it was worth the risk. At some point, I may have to commit my CVs to a do-or-die strike (and my BBs, for that matter), but that will probably be once I identify a major landing at Guam. As long as we can keep him struggling over Tinian and Pagan, I think I’m better off to keep my CVs as a threat and take my shots when I can.

[Justus2]

4 JULY

Today the action centers on Saipan. Al brings in more APDs for another landing (elements of the 4th Marine). Coastal Guns pound the Stringham, several internal explosions and a sinking sound later in the turn. Second wave gets a couple hits on another APD.

I also had a mini-sub take a shot, but the torps missed and she was sunk. [:'(]

[Justus2]

I was anxiously awaiting the ground phase to see my counterattack. During the animation, 22nd Marine dropped to zero, and 4th Marine (whatever elements landed this turn) was wiped out. However, even with 73-1 odds, I still take significantly higher casualties - especially hate 53 squads DESTROYED! [:@]

Another lesson in the firepower of the USMC… [8|] I had hoped, after his disrupted landing yesterday, that a quick counterattack could eliminate his beachhead (and maybe capture some supplies). I did eliminate the fragment of 4th Marine, but I am going to pull back into my level 6 forts for now and leave the rest of the Marines alone.

A question for those with more experience in late-war ground combat, how do you estimate when an attack will be favorable? I’m used to using AV as a rough guide, of course taking terrain/forts etc into account. But I thought I had a pretty good situation here: 12:1 odds in raw AV, tanks/guns on my side, and his forces heavily disabled and no forts.

[Chickenboy]

The fact that they were Marines and had terrain bonuses cost your attackers. Still, those two Mar Rgts. are nearly combat ineffective. To quote Patton at El Guittar, "I've never seen such a senseless waste of good infantry."

Destroying Marine units is big VP medicine. Keep up the good work! [8D]

[Justus2]

5 JULY

Today was all about Saipan. First, one of my mini-subs gets lucky and hits the APA Callaway at Saipan. You’ll see from the pictures, Callaway did NOT have a good day! [;)] RO-115 put another torp in her later that day, and also hit an LST. Not all my subs were as lucky, and RO-68 got pounded by several DDs a little further east, but should limp to Truk.

Then came the first couple rounds of coastal defense guns. Saipan Naval Fortress will get an Imperial Unit Citation by the time this battle is over (if we survive). [&o] BANZAI! According to one of the notes during the animations that flew past, the second round his TF was embarking unit from Saipan (which made sense when the LCU combat occured).

[Justus2]

Then my air attacks came in. I did not want to commit my carriers, his CVTFs were too close, so I used what few 1E land-based aircraft I have left. I had CAP stacked at Tinian and Saipan to help in the air battle, I still lost a few more than him overall, but did attrit him some and got a few hits. One bomb hit obliterated an LCI and caused most of the casualties, and the two damaged earlier by the CD guns sank while trying to evade. [:D] Our friend Callaway caught another one as well. [;)]

[Justus2]

There was a final round of coastal fire toward the end of the turn (and a message saying TF88 was withdrawing due to damage). The ground bombardment finished off the remnant that was left –
Saipan is free of invaders!!

[Justus2]

Al seems to be pulling back. Almost all the TFs I can spot are shown heading East or Southeast. I know that the recon reports aren’t always reliable, but when they are all consistent, it makes me think there’s some truth to it. I have search flying from multiple locations, so there is decent overlap (and even a couple small squadrons on night search right near the islands, to help my subs). I also know my scout pilots think every ship is a CV or BB! [:'(] The two northern ones below I think are actually CVTFs, during the turn animation they both showed red lines when I got messages about CAP shooting down my recon planes. I’m not sure what to make of the southern one – shows as multiple CVs but no fighters or bombers, so I tend to think that one’s an exaggeration. [&:]

I’m guessing he is pulling back to reconsolidate his forces, reorganize and prep for another major landing. I don’t think he has much in the way of uncommitted ground forces left, I’ve accounted for all but two of his starting Marine Rgts in his landings so far. I think he gets some Army divisions as reinforcements later in July.

My CVL task force will arrive at Truk this turn (set to auto-disband to avoid detection). [8D] Once they refuel, I will look for an opportunity to hit one of his retreating convoys. KB is coming around to the NW of Pagan, and will be positioned to hit any isolated TFs up north.

[Justus2]

6 JULY

Once again, the day opens with a mini-sub getting a hit! [:)] This time on an LST, and I immediately hear sinking noises. Then one of my RO boats has the ENTERPRISE in her sights, fires a spread of 4, and a HIT! But it’s a dud… [8|] I thought that was supposed to happen to the Americans!! Another sub (RO-68) is caught by an escort screen and sunk.

Meanwhile, the action shifts to Tinian this turn, literally. The ships that were withdrawing units from Saipan last turn are landing at Tinian today. My Saipan guns get a few parting shots at his DDs, but Tinian doesn’t have any CD guns to welcome the new arrivals. Still, a number of the troops are disabled or destroyed on landing (about 250 across all waves).

[Justus2]

I guess my thoughts last turn that he might be pulling back were premature – his carrier groups are still close by, and launch a sweep over Tinian. He gets the better of me, but according to the air losses screen, I end the day at 21 losses to 15 of his (all types), not too bad.

He tries a Deliberate Assault with his new reinforcements, and for a change the casualties favor me this time! Good thing I got those forts back up to level 3! [8D] Glad to see lots of destroyed squads.