Did I wake that giant AGAIN? vicberg(j) vs. BillBrown(A) - No Bill Pls

[ny59giants]

Plz consult "LEADERS" document I sent you!!

[vicberg]

Just did!

[vicberg]

March 11th, 1942

Yamamoto is pacing a muttering.

“Wasn’t Tojo doing this?” A staff member whispers to another.

“It’s spreading. That’s why I have my ceremonial gloves on all the time.”

His staff can make out a few words. Wenchow. Dutch Harbor, Suva, Ship Upgrades, Shipyard Size, Air Group Leaders, LCU Leaders, Crew Experience, Reinforcement Locations, Fuel, Resource/Oil convoys, Double Supply Required at Bases to provide Replacements, Overall Supply in Geographic Areas, Overall Industry in Geographic Areas, Overall Industry, R&D, Coordinated Air Strikes, Relative Cruise Speeds, Maneuver Bands, Combined Arms Air Defense. The words, “too much” keep being repeated.

Yamamoto suddenly stops pacing and looks at his staff. His left eye is twitching a bit. “Why do I have an entire country at my disposal, but I have to do everything?”

“Because it’s a very detailed, hands on game. There’s little that can given to us. We are just a not-so-clever representation of what it would be like if it were a real war and provide very poor comic relief.” His senior staff member responds.

"Dismissed"

[vicberg]

Back to ground mechanics. Hopefully, someone can answer. The last two attacks against Lanchow, Chinese AV was reduced to 1/4 or normal. Supply wasn't an issue in either attack for the Chinese. There was no supply(-). The negatives against the Chinese were preparation(-) and experience(-). Was it two unlucky rolls that caused the quartering?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Back to ground mechanics. Hopefully, someone can answer. The last two attacks against Lanchow, Chinese AV was reduced to 1/4 or normal. Supply wasn't an issue in either attack for the Chinese. There was no supply(-). The negatives against the Chinese were preparation(-) and experience(-). Was it two unlucky rolls that caused the quartering?

Not nearly enough information to help you.[&:]

The supply malus doesn't mean there is no supply.

There are different degrees to lack of supply.

There is also disablements, disruption, fatigue, leadership, forts, toe, etc., etc.

[vicberg]

I understand.

This was the first attack. Fort level 3. One of my brigades crossed the river a week earlier into Lanchow and got almost wiped out with little to no damage to him. So his units were probably NOT disabled much if at all and his supply situation was ok. He told me all his units in Lanchow showed white on supply.

Judging by the results of this attack, he was seriously disabled for the second attack. Still doesn't explain this attack though. Is this simply two bad die rolls in a row? The consistency of being quartered twice in a row tells me that there was *some* modifier going on for both attacks. Just not sure what. Right now, my guess is preparation/experience. The 26th division starts the game a crack division. The 37th Division has been involved with combat since the beginning of the war. Both I believe are around 80 experience. I haven't checked the tank regiments, but they are fairly high as well.

Ground combat at Lanchow (81,34)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 34794 troops, 288 guns, 519 vehicles, Assault Value = 1116

Defending force 41089 troops, 204 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1267

Japanese adjusted assault: 866

Allied adjusted defense: 357

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1103 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 86 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2532 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 305 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 28 (4 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Assaulting units:
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
13th Tank Regiment
9th Tank Regiment
23rd Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
26th Division
5th Armored Car Co
37th Division
15th Tank Regiment
10th Tank Regiment
Mongol Garrison Army
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
3rd Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
8th Route Army
81st Chinese Corps
34th Group Army

[emek]

Just finished reading.
Great AAR

I spent more then two weeks working on turn one just to make those decisions you are facing now. Believe me next few turns were long as well.

ORIGINAL: vicberg

March 11th, 1942

Yamamoto is pacing a muttering.

“Wasn’t Tojo doing this?” A staff member whispers to another.

“It’s spreading. That’s why I have my ceremonial gloves on all the time.”

His staff can make out a few words. Wenchow. Dutch Harbor, Suva, Ship Upgrades, Shipyard Size, Air Group Leaders, LCU Leaders, Crew Experience, Reinforcement Locations, Fuel, Resource/Oil convoys, Double Supply Required at Bases to provide Replacements, Overall Supply in Geographic Areas, Overall Industry in Geographic Areas, Overall Industry, R&D, Coordinated Air Strikes, Relative Cruise Speeds, Maneuver Bands, Combined Arms Air Defense. The words, “too much” keep being repeated.

Yamamoto suddenly stops pacing and looks at his staff. His left eye is twitching a bit. “Why do I have an entire country at my disposal, but I have to do everything?”

“Because it’s a very detailed, hands on game. There’s little that can given to us. We are just a not-so-clever representation of what it would be like if it were a real war and provide very poor comic relief.” His senior staff member responds.

"Dismissed"

I am playing against Bill as well. I have a feeling you are underestimating him a bit because he gave you so much ground initially.
He has a strategy and he is very aggressive using his navy.

Be careful !!

[Lowpe]

For one thing, the adjusted AV you see occurs after a lot of combat has already happened, it is there for retreat purposes and other things.

If you disable or disrupt or kill a squad prior to the calculation the adjusted AV will show it. I suspect his disruption, fatigue, and disablements are really heavy lowering his end AV to the levels you see.

Tanks versus Chinese...bad news for China.[:D]

From LoBaron:

What happens is the following on ground combat:

Theoretical AV is displayed as of pre-combat without terrain or combat induced modifiers
Bombardement phase
Defender fires
Attack phase
AV is calculated using the value of non-disabled/destroyed squads and terrain/forts

[vicberg]

Well, I've been uncertain about him and I've been afraid I've been under-estimating him.

He does is this hit and run thing. It's working quite well. Shows up suddenly with the AVG and then disappears, usually shooting down quite a few of my planes in the process. A daring Surface Raid in both SoPac and NoPac bagged a few of my transports, and then silence for weeks.

I won't under-estimate him.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

For one thing, the adjusted AV you see occurs after a lot of combat has already happened, it is there for retreat purposes and other things.

If you disable or disrupt or kill a squad prior to the calculation the adjusted AV will show it. I suspect his disruption, fatigue, and disablements are really heavy lowering his end AV to the levels you see.

Tanks versus Chinese...bad news for China.[:D]

From LoBaron:

What happens is the following on ground combat:

Theoretical AV is displayed as of pre-combat without terrain or combat induced modifiers
Bombardement phase
Defender fires
Attack phase
AV is calculated using the value of non-disabled/destroyed squads and terrain/forts

What he said (but I don't remember all the details).

In most situations, it seems that even high-quality formations get their final AV much lower than their starting AV. Not always, but far more often than in WITP, or so it seems. You get used to it, but it can be hard to gauge when it will happen. I think it mostly relates to the suppression of AV-contributing squads by the larger weapons earlier in combat.

[vicberg]

Looks to me like somewhat a black box. That works for me.

[vicberg]

March 14th, 1942

Bataan fell to the first attack. They are having supply issues. I'm realizing how much I fubarred this game. Use China Command with RGC Army HQ to take Wenchow early. Unless I'm doing something like a PH Invasion or Canada invasion from turn 1, 3 divisions for Singapore (after Mersing and making sure ARM is put to reserve so it can move into the retreating hex and cut off northern Malaya), 1 division for Palembang, 5 Divisions for Luzon with Bataan the first major objective to open naval bombardments for Manila. That frees up 9 divisions for secondary objectives. Sigh.....next game.

So I'm in March and I have 10 divisions still tied up between Wenchow and Luzon. Yuk.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 32690 troops, 336 guns, 246 vehicles, Assault Value = 981

Defending force 8605 troops, 174 guns, 45 vehicles, Assault Value = 225

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 2076

Allied adjusted defense: 65

Japanese assault odds: 31 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Bataan !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
685 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled

Allied ground losses:
4758 casualties reported
Squads: 245 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 429 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 177 (177 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 49 (49 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 10

Assaulting units:
2nd Division
21st Ind Engineer Regiment
5th Division
1st Sasebo SNLF Coy
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
301st Construction Battalion
45th PS Infantry Regiment
31st Infantry Regiment
803rd Aviation Engineer Battalion
4th Constabulary Regiment
III/Prov'nl SPM Grp
Manila Bay Defenses
II/Prov'nl SPM Grp
Bataan USN Base Force
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment

[emek]

Normally players retreat to Bataan as it provides built up forts and terrain

. He is spreading his forces making easier for you to take both Bataan and Manila. As long as you prevented fort buildup.

You bombed Manila from the beginning right?

[vicberg]

Stacking Limits prevent Bataan. Only 45k there. The rest is in Manila. He could have pushed more into Bataan, but I beat him out of Clark faster than he expected. I've been bombing Manila from day 1 with the exception of a few bomb runs on Bataan.

What I did wrong was focus on Java before Manila. If I had focused on Manila, it would have collapsed quickly and then I could have shifted the divs to Java and then they would be ready for second objectives. Instead, I focused on Java and then had to shift 2 Divisions back to Luzon. Wasted a lot of time with this.

Tactically, I made a mistake. Once Clark was taken, the 65th Brigade should have held Clark and the 2 Divs attacked Bataan in order to clear the way for naval bombardments of Manila. Instead, I went for Manila first and succeeded in depleting my divisions.

Numerous mistakes. All good since my objectives have simplified in this game.

[emek]

There are no stacking limits at Bataan.

[ny59giants]

I disagree with your initial disposition of forces, especially for Luzon. The 16th and 48th ID along with 65 Bde should be enough. I typically start the 20th Division broken down into components found around Seoul, Korea prepping for Manila as its one of the first I buy out. Even if I'm playing DBB (not RA or BTS with more mobile Command HQs), the NE Fleet or 5th Fleet starts to prep for Manila before moving to Luzon. IMO, the punch that you get from both Corp/Army HQ along with Command HQ passing their die roll cannot be overstated. Keeping Manila AF damaged so the Allies cannot ever build up forts is important. Often as Allies, Japan will take a breather and allow me to get level 2 or 3 forts.

In Malaya, I now divide my initial landings to include both Kota Bharu and Kuantan with 5th ID and 18th ID split to hit each base. Kuantan (most BFs land here) is close enough to cover Mersing landings with LRCAP. Capture the bases and quickly reload for Mersing invasion. Imp Gds comes down west coast of peninsula. Follow up divisions go to Mersing to follow 5 & 18. You should be in Singapore by end of December with it captured or close to with 4 or more divisions involved.

[vicberg]

2 Divs, the 65th Brigade and 1 more Div (either 38th from Hong Kong or 20th out of Korea) would be enough. I guess. If I took Bataan first, which is critical, opened the way for naval bombardment, approx 1000-1400 AV could do it. I'm hosed right now as I've allowed him to get to level 3 forts.

ORIGINAL: emek

There are no stacking limits at Bataan.

In the mod we are playing, every hex has a stacking limit. For Bataan, it's 45k, which is around 3 (Japanese) divisions. For Manila, it's 160k. There isn't one hex on the map without a stacking limit.

[Yakface]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

2 Divs, the 65th Brigade and 1 more Div (either 38th from Hong Kong or 20th out of Korea) would be enough. I guess. If I took Bataan first, which is critical, opened the way for naval bombardment, approx 1000-1400 AV could do it. I'm hosed right now as I've allowed him to get to level 3 forts.

ORIGINAL: emek

There are no stacking limits at Bataan.

In the mod we are playing, every hex has a stacking limit. For Bataan, it's 45k, which is around 3 (Japanese) divisions. For Manila, it's 160k. There isn't one hex on the map without a stacking limit.

IMO he's made a poor choice in defending Manila rather than Clark field. Now you can leave a division +a few smaller units and artillery to make sure he can't break out. Park an AE at Bataan and run round the clock bombardments of Manila. Remember, you're not fighting his troops, you are fighting is supply dump. Supply hits from 14 inch guns + 250kg bombs will run his troops out of supply in a short period. Manila is going to be of no use to him (and not threat to you) with 100% damage to all facilities, so leave it to starve and come back in a few months with a couple of divisions to mop up. Forts don't help much when the troops behind them have no bullets.

One last thing - make sure he isn't getting supply into Manila by ship or sub. ASW TF's in the shallow water of Bataan should make the sub route difficult. I'm guessing the ship route is not an issue by May

[vicberg]

Hmmmm....I have 5 divisions there now, plus Southern Command HQ, so I could just muscle through on it. 2 Divisions are full strength (900 AV), the rest are 1/2 to 1/4 depleted. I already have the ASW and AKE in Subic, so good to go there. I could transfer 3 divisions somewhere else. Perhaps Northern OZ? Not sure yet. My goals this game have simplified to push a bit more in SoPAC (Suva, Norfolk, Lord Howe), isolate Pago Pago as an effective base and collapse China. 3 Divisions could help secure the Vietnam - Fusan LOC.

[ny59giants]

What is going to help your economy more?? Pushing down into SoPac or taking NW Australia (Exmouth and Carnarvon)? If you leave the NW in Allied hands, you risk an early jump into Java area in '43. As Japan it comes down to three things - oil, oil, and oil. [;)]