Avoiding the Turkeyshoot – Marianas Scen Justus2 (J) vs nardiajn (A)

[Justus2]

11 JULY

Quick turn, so only one post, thunderstorms grounded most activity. One of Al’s subs hit one of my resupply ships, but she may limp back to Babel:

Sub attack near Babeldaob at 93,92
Japanese Ships
xAKL Turusima Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PB Toshi Maru #3
Allied Ships
SS Seawolf

Otherwise, it was just the action on the ground. Tinian threw back another assault, causing major casualties - over 50 squads destroyed again! [:)] Pagan continues to get ground down.

Not sure if the storms are reducing my patrol visibility, or if he actually pulled his TFs back, but I have a window of opportunity to reinforce/resupply. My AMC, with about a dozen Inf Sqds and 100+ Support squads from 14th Div, is going to run in to Tinian. I have a couple more xAKs unloading supplies at Guam. My two xAKs from Truk are headed to Satawal, island-hopping to bring some fuel to Ulithi.

Meanwhile, I am preparing for the eventual loss of Pagan. The island isn’t worth a lot of points, but once he takes it, he will try to turn it into a major air and search base. I have moved the KB west, I don’t want it out in the open without a clear escape route. I also have 2BB still at Iwo, which will run in and bombard as soon as it falls. He’s got two tank units there, but only one combat engineer, and he’s taken a lot of engineer casualties, so I think it will take him a while to repair the airfield if I can crater it. Seeing the Corsairs and Mitchells hitting Jaluit reminded me he has a ton of LBA once he gets a base within range to use them, so I need to delay/degrade that as long as possible.

[Chickenboy]

My opinion is that Pagan as a base is only useful very early in the scenario. He will need to build it and garrison it and supply / provide fuel for it in order for it to be useful to exploit for the other Marianas. I feel like he's too late in taking / exploiting it. Saipan and Guam are the linchpins here. Pagan and, to an extent, Tinian are also-rans. Take the brass ring or go home empty-handed. You're holding out just fine.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

My opinion is that Pagan as a base is only useful very early in the scenario. He will need to build it and garrison it and supply / provide fuel for it in order for it to be useful to exploit for the other Marianas. I feel like he's too late in taking / exploiting it. Saipan and Guam are the linchpins here. Pagan and, to an extent, Tinian are also-rans. Take the brass ring or go home empty-handed. You're holding out just fine.

Thanks - you are probably right about making it a major base, but he can definitely use it for search. I feel pretty good about Saipan and Guam, they each have large garrisons and good forts (and CD guns). I've accounted for all of his starting Rgt-sized units but one so far. I think he just got a division reinforcement recently, and he gets a couple more divisions later this month, but he will barely have time to get them from Pearl to the islands, I don't think he will have time for a long siege against good forts. One reason I want to keep up the fight for Tinian as long as possible is so he can't reuse those units to reinforce a landing at Saipan or Guam. That's also true with the tanks at Pagan, to a lesser extent. I think he will have trouble re-loading them from Pagan anyway.

[Justus2]

12 JULY

Storms continue, so not much action again today (which is fine with me right now). One of his subs is persistent, and after two attacks puts a torp in an xAKL headed for Guam, which sinks (w/2K supply).

Sub attack near Ulithi at 100,94
Japanese Ships
xAKL Toshi Maru #2
PB Kure Maru #5
Allied Ships
SS Darter
SS Darter launches 2 torpedoes at xAKL Toshi Maru #2
Darter diving deep ....

Sub attack near Ulithi at 100,93
Japanese Ships
xAKL Kidokawa Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
Allied Ships
SS Darter
SS Darter launches 2 torpedoes at xAKL Kidokawa Maru
Darter diving deep ....
Sub escapes detection

Good news is my AMC arrived at Tinian, and is unloading, and the two xAKs are about half-unloaded at Guam. Not sure if it’s the date or if my supply level is high enough, but I can create new mini-sub TFs, and these are the 500-endurance ones, so I shuffle several to each island. My 2-xAK fuel convoy continues it’s sneaky journey, [;)] they made it to Satawal and are headed to Yap today, then one more hop to Ulithi. I have a DD running ASW ahead of them. I have another xAK at Truk, I’m loading a tank company, going to see if I can sneak it out and around to reinforce one of the islands. If not, I lose an xAK and a tank co that’s doing nothing at Truk.

Ground combat at Tinian is brutal, I think Al is feeling the time pressure. Disruption must be high, as his adjusted AV really dropped, but that’s 5 turns in a row of Deliberate Assault. 70 squads destroyed has to hurt. [X(] I did a Raw AV tracker, you can see it growing when he was unloading those LCIs about a week ago, but dropping the last few days. Pagan is getting bleak.

[Justus2]

13 JULY

Yet another quiet turn, even as the weather seems to be clearing (Partly cloudy). Only one single-ship TF within sight of the Marianas. Only one sub attack, which missed. It was against the KB, but he only spotted a CA and DDs.

Deliberate assault at Pagan again, wont hold out much longer. I mentioned to Al in email that it seemed the disruption was really hurting his efforts at Tinian, so he switched to bombardment this turn. His raw AV is under 300 now. I’m sure he will recover while resting, but hopefully I will too. My AMC has unloaded everything but 10 motorized support, and a few hundred supply, next turn if they don’t unload I will send it back regardless. That’s over 100 regular support that unloaded, should help some of my troops recover. Another small group of xAKLs with 500 supply just arrived. [;)]

[Justus2]

Meanwhile, Operation Stealth Transport continues out of Truk. My two xAKs full of fuel made it to Woleai, and should make the hop to Ulithi this turn. They will offload there, Ulithi is a good jump-off point for my Fast Transport TFs, but they burn fuel, so it’s dry now. I have another TF (pictured), an xAK w/Escort, that loaded up a tank company from Truk and is going to try to loop around behind the Marianas and land when I can. You can see all the open sea between Truk and the Marianas.

One question I have for experienced JFBs – I don’t usually pay much attention to SigInt as the Japanese. It’s great to see “Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Pearl Harbor (180,107)”, but I think my intel officers already guessed that….[:'(]

This turn, however, I noticed Heavy Volume messages for Kwaj and Roi, and I also got detection levels showing ships in harbor and planes present. I don’t have any patrols over there, not even any subs.
Is this just FOW? Or does it mean he really has moved major shipping there? [&:]

I am wondering, because I spotted that CVE TF a few days ago headed SE from Eniwetok. Either he really is planning to invade Jaluit, [:D] or maybe he is trying to load up some BFs from those islands to move forward.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

This turn, however, I noticed Heavy Volume messages for Kwaj and Roi, and I also got detection levels showing ships in harbor and planes present. I don’t have any patrols over there, not even any subs.
Is this just FOW? Or does it mean he really has moved major shipping there? [&:]

I am wondering, because I spotted that CVE TF a few days ago headed SE from Eniwetok. Either he really is planning to invade Jaluit, [:D] or maybe he is trying to load up some BFs from those islands to move forward.

You can probably be certain that there are planes and ships there. [8|]

There is likely an increased amount of traffic as well. But I wouldn't extrapolate that further.

The best reason to check SigInt regularly as the IJ is the occasional tasty tidbits that identify TF at sea by undisciplined radio transmissions. These are useful for determining a plot / hunting line.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

13 JULY

What's the final day of the scenario?

[Justus2]

Scenario ends 6 AUG - 1 year before Hiroshima, I guess the reasoning is if you can hold out past then, you are delaying the day of reckoning.[8D]

[Justus2]

14 JULY

Another quiet turn, more supplies unloading at Guam and Tinian. I have three small xAKLs there now, that will start shuttling about 500 supply to Saipan per run (they are small enough to unload in 1 turn, and expendable if I lose them). My 2 xAKs with fuel arrived at Ulithi and are unloading, and the AMC at Tinian unloaded the rest of the support squads.

I had a message pop up during the air search phase, saying one of my Betties got a hit on our good friend the APA CALLOWAY – I thought she sank a week ago after all the hits she took at Saipan. But I think now she’s a cripple – looking back over the last couple turns, there’s been a single-ship TF in that location, I just assumed it was a picket DD. I am vectoring a sub over to see if I can help… [;)]

Also, got another SIGINT of Heavy Traffic at Kwaj. Like Chickenboy said, it may be nothing, but if he's getting desperate he could be picking up extra garrison or base units for the next wave. It would be a perfect opportunity for a Glen sub (if I had any left...). I do have a raiding CA near Truk, I will refuel and try to sneak over.

Another bombardment at Tinian, and another assault at Pagan. The end is near, [:(] down to 5 raw AV at Pagan, and more squads destroyed.

[Justus2]

Had some extra time tonight, so I thought I’d post some charts and make a couple comments on things I thought were unique to this scenario. You can see the VP screen, and air losses on top. That’s a LOT of Zeros lost, [X(] almost 300 (all 3 types) compared to under 100 Hellcats. And a lot of his have been ops losses, not A2A. But I’ve taken out a lot of bombers, our overall numbers are pretty close.

What hurts is the lower right screen, Aircraft Pools. You can see I only get 20 Zeros (10 of each type) per month, and 5 Jills. I shut off replacements for most of my squadrons, so I can build a small pool for when KB gets to port (next turn). It really makes you treat each aircraft as precious.

The A6M2s are because I wasn’t paying attention and disbanded a small squadron, thinking they would go into another squadron on that base, but they were the A6M2 Sen Baku… [:'(] I do have a couple squadrons of the plain A6M2s, I just need to rotate one back to Babel to upgrade. Another odd thing about the scenario, Babel is a bigger port and AF, yet Pelieliu has the major base forces and Air HQ, and they are restricted. Of course, that may just be an accurate representation of IJ logistical planning…

The other point I wanted to make is in the lower left corner. Those are all the current ships under ‘repair’ – really they are just damaged and parked. The Japanese have no repair yards in this scenario, there was one ARD in Truk that was sunk early. Ships that in a normal game would be out for a few weeks and back in action are ‘mission kills’ in this game. SHOKAKU could be put back in action, but I’m low on planes so her squadrons are already distributed out to other CVs, she’s more of an insurance policy at this point in case one of the others gets hit. I would be able to get some of those subs back to sea if I still had that ARD. Just a different experience, instead of managing my repairs carefully, basically anything that gets heavily damaged is in mothballs, hoping he doesn’t hit my ports!

[Chickenboy]

All you have to do is to run out the clock. Three weeks for the Allies with some significant damage to their amphibious fleet and support vessels. He pretty much has to take Guam and Saipan. Tinian looks to be a costly failure. Pagan falls? So what? That won't be sufficient to offset his failure in the more important Marianas if he doesn't capture those quickly and cleanly.

You're doing a lot better than I did, Justus2! Keep up the good work! [&o]

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

All you have to do is to run out the clock. Three weeks for the Allies with some significant damage to their amphibious fleet and support vessels. He pretty much has to take Guam and Saipan. Tinian looks to be a costly failure. Pagan falls? So what? That won't be sufficient to offset his failure in the more important Marianas if he doesn't capture those quickly and cleanly.

You're doing a lot better than I did, Justus2! Keep up the good work! [&o]

Thanks Chickenboy! I know from emails that Al realizes he's in a tough spot, I think he will try at least one more major assault, which I will do my best to throw back into the sea! But we've both learned a lot, and had fun. We are trying to decide which scenario to move to next, I recommended Thousand Mile War, I haven't tried that one yet.

[Justus2]

15 JULY

Recon was right, that was the Callaway, limping home. I-47 finished her off. [;)]

Otherwise, quiet turn, Al switched to bombardment at both Pagan and Tinian. I think he’s preparing for one more big invasion before the end, he has nothing visible at the moment so I’m guessing he’s reorganizing for a coordinated assault. I’m trying to sneak supply where I can, I just refueled/rearmed KB, ready for the next round.

[Justus2]

16 JULY
The day opens with a scare, as ZUIHO spots four incoming torps… but they all miss! [:)]

We get one hit on the offending sub, but Al knows I have at least one CVL in the south. This is my CVL Strike TF, they are headed further SE, looking for an opportunity to get behind his main CVTFs. KB is heading north from Babel to cover the islands.

[Justus2]

Action is starting to heat up again, as his CVs move back into range. Two small sorties go after my 3 xAKL TF that just unloaded at Tinian (about 500 supplies), but no hits. Air battle for the day gives me a slight edge, I lose 10 Zeros total, he loses 12 Helldivers and Hellcats and a couple float planes. I’m running the xAKLs back to Guam to hide! [;)]

I take the opportunity this turn to consolidate a couple air groups (disbanding groups of 10 or less to fill out others). Still nothing like full groups, but concentrating with better leaders. I also culled some of the better pilots from my search squadrons, and transferred them to the KB.

[Justus2]

Tinian definitely seems to be the focus, as it gets hit by four BBs. They churn up some dirt, and inflict some casualties, but mostly disabled not destroyed. He also lands elements of 24th Marine. The assault at the end of the turn shows his AV has gone up a bit, and fairly even casualties.

I’m expecting another big invasion wave, but I don’t think this is it. I see several TFs incoming, but none with transports, mostly CVs and CVEs. We will have to see what develops. I have a CA TF and a BB TF moving to the west of Tinian, so I could try a night run in the next couple turns if I see an opportunity.

[Chickenboy]

I don't recall precise specifics, but do recall that the Allied P47s are brutally effective in controlling airspace in this scenario. Al's failure to get those squadrons onto a central Marianas island is costing him air parity, let alone superiority/supremacy. These are probably the best Allied airframe-failure to prioritize their forward deployment is costing him dearly.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I don't recall precise specifics, but do recall that the Allied P47s are brutally effective in controlling airspace in this scenario. Al's failure to get those squadrons onto a central Marianas island is costing him air parity, let alone superiority/supremacy. These are probably the best Allied airframe-failure to prioritize their forward deployment is costing him dearly.

I haven't seen the P47s yet, I definitely don't want to tangle with them when I only have Zeros. I know he has plenty of Corsairs back at Kwajalein, along with tactical bombers. That's why, even though it's a lost cause in the long run, I'm glad to hang on to Pagan as long as I can. Once he takes any airfield within range of my key islands, I will lose a lot of flexibility, and it's only a matter of time before my air is grounded.

I have thought about how I would try this from his side. I dont' think the initial strategy (Pagan and Tinian) were bad choices, if his initial landings succeeded. Pagan would have given him a key airfield early, and Tinian is potentially the easiest of the 'big 3' since it doesnt start with CD guns, tanks, or a lot of well-prep'd AV. I had good luck disrupting his landings, but you're right, if he would have focused overwhelming power on one early, to get an airfield, it would have helped him shut down my air early on.

I'm currently reading Red Sun Setting, about the Marianas campaign, I saw a post about it after we started the campaign so I bought it off Amazon. I knew about the battle of the Phillipine Sea, but never really understood the geography as well until reading it while playing the scenario. One key was the US CVTFs hitting the airfields on the way in, which gave them the freedom to operate on the west side of the Marianas, isolating them from reinforcements.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2
I have thought about how I would try this from his side. I dont' think the initial strategy (Pagan and Tinian) were bad choices, if his initial landings succeeded. Pagan would have given him a key airfield early, and Tinian is potentially the easiest of the 'big 3' since it doesnt start with CD guns, tanks, or a lot of well-prep'd AV. I had good luck disrupting his landings, but you're right, if he would have focused overwhelming power on one early, to get an airfield, it would have helped him shut down my air early on.

Agreed about Tinian and Pagan being the initial targets. But they're only effective if you...you know...capture them. Besieging them for weeks and weeks and fighting to a standstill will not avail the Allies any benefit.