Fischia il Vento - loki100 vs smokindave34 ... German marginal victory T94

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: loki100
The critical bit is I have a stack of 3 armoured divisions (about 45cv) over the Rhine, given the interdiction levels around there, I don't think the Germans can muster the power to drive me back over the Rhine.

I hope you're right ... if so, you should be able to spread out from there and force him to fall back across the front. With the Rhine crossed in force that should (??) get rid of the last really strong defensive barrier.

He'd need around 90+cv and that would be a real challenge, not least they would have to wade through a couple of hexes of #3/#4 interdiction and it would undermine the rest of his defensive line.

This was my core goal for the winter campaign, so I'm pretty content I've played this phase fairly well (if we ignore Denmark that is)

ORIGINAL: Seminole

but I think all 3 landings failed so badly that the relative gain/loss for effective bombing wouldn't have rescued the invasion.

Is your intel correct that some of those landings were unopposed, and yet the landings themselves failed because of the snow?

Contending with a Danish Gambit in my game as the Axis (July '44 now).
My opponent (S2Tanker) got at least two weeks unopposed as I didn't realize where the invasion had happened until he showed up almost at the German border!
That region offers some interesting possibilities for counter attack...

one thing I find a bit frustrating is that you can't see the detailed reports for one of your invasions, I guess as it happened in the German turn?

3 of the landings were contested, not least Dave was suspicious as to what I was up to and it was either there or NE of Amsterdam (and I wouldn't want to upset my mother in law by invading there). With hindsight, I think that the north end of Jutland offers potential to consider in another game. You can generate a few rail depots with careful selection, its going to be unopposed and the terrain allows some rapid exploitation.

so its a trick I'd try again, just better executed next time. I don't think its ideal for a primary invasion but late game to stretch the axis it could pay off

ORIGINAL: ivaldi

Very nice AAR.

thank you .. glad its useful (despite my errors and mistakes)

[loki100]

Turn 85: 17-23 February 1945

Weather watch volume #85 ... cold skies

I'm actually starting to run out of planes. I've had losses at around 200-250 a turn for the last couple of turns (which I can cope with) but around 2,000 per turn damaged. At this stage those are a bigger concern as it wrecks the morale of my air units. Low morale units are just not very efficient at anything (apart from taking more losses), something that anyone who has played the Soviets in WiTE will have observed.

Even lowering the morale level at which I'm flying (from my usual 70 to 60), I only have about 60% of the sorties of a few turns ago.

Also the front line combat units are suffering a bit with fatigue and ammunition. So an attempt to cross the Rhine south of Cologne fails.



But I do manage to broaden my bridgehead to the north.



This was actually a frustrating turn, the result of pushing units hard over the last two turns was lower MP and CV values and I kept on finding I lacked the movement points to attack.

Still, my grasp on the east bank of the Rhine is secure. I've made more gains around Strasbourg and am slowly building up for a secondary offensive towards Frankfurt (this is where I am moving most of the 5 Army formations).

[jwolf]

Not much time left ... in view of that, can you afford to take a one turn break, an operational pause, and let your men and equipment recover before pushing hard? Or do you have to go all out every turn now?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Not much time left ... in view of that, can you afford to take a one turn break, an operational pause, and let your men and equipment recover before pushing hard? Or do you have to go all out every turn now?

I think its a constant trade off and one reason why playing the Allies is so interesting. There are turns when you might as well give everyone a weeks leave - one is coming up that was heavy rain and heavy mud. But with random weather you don't know when those will fall.

Unlike my AI game I'm being more rigorous about reserves, letting units rest and pulling them off the line. I think WiTW does an excellent job of capturing the 'hurry up and wait' mindset of a lot of military planning. I've just sent back a turn (about 4 ahead of the AAR) where I really gained a reward for being pretty methodical at letting units rest and refit.

But its hard when you know that bad weather eliminates my only real force multiplier so it is tempting to overdo it on the turns when you can operate without too many constraints.

[loki100]

Turn 86: 24 February – 2 March 1945

Weather watch – heavy rain/heavy mud. Yuck

Well that limits things but also gives my airforce a much needed rest. I've done some thinking about the high number of 'damaged' planes and one major problem is the level of German flak in this area. My solution from this point on was to make much more use of single hex air directives which limits the chance of planes bombing cities as part of a wider pattern (and taking heavy losses due to low altitude). Its not a perfect solution, but it does help a bit.

Here's the big map, Uncle Joe lumbers west every now and then. Also as you can probably see, the Germans have just pulled back in the west as a result of my gains last turn.



Since not much combat happened, seemed a good chance to review some metrics. The Germans carry on losing afvs (both losses and failure to produce replacements):



Their fuel store is also running down



East Front (not sure why this always shows as a single data point)



On the ground just one combat, but an important gain as it gives me a second bridgehead over the Rhine.



Other than following up the German retreat around Koblenz, not much else happened.

In terms of VP points, it is varying between no change and a small loss for me each turn. Still around -650 so no reason to think this will end with anything other than a deserved German marginal victory.

[jwolf]

Looking at the map, I see the Allied threat in Denmark has been contained. [:'(]

Maybe you can offer a virgin tank to the weather gods and get a break next turn.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Looking at the map, I see the Allied threat in Denmark has been contained. [:'(]

Maybe you can offer a virgin tank to the weather gods and get a break next turn.

yep, in my fantasy version of that map there is a green line somewhere near the Kiel canal and lots of German units forced to redeploy to contain it ... ah well

I just keep on pointing out to Dave that I am very reliant on him producing the weather I need to beat him with ... I'm sure he understands the importance [;)]

[loki100]

Turn 87: 3-9 March 1945

Weather watch: cold skies and snow (not sure how the snow arrived but I'm not complaining) ... so lets go back to bombing

The Dutch have decided to celebrate the German retreat by blowing things up



VP score, as usual for the turns when I do very little, its better than when I am active:



All the bombing is in support of the Rhine battles or at Strasbourg (where I am also trying to push for a bridgehead). Usual pattern of relatively few planes shot down (319) but a lot damaged (1981). Even being very careful about the shape of the bombing boxes, there is so much flak in the Ruhr that this seems to be unavoidable.

In view of the discussion in LiquidSky's AAR about the impact of differing air strategies, here's the air loss screen up to this turn:



Anyway, pretty decent interdiction where it matters



Supply net is looking healthy after the recent gains. Cologne now is critical, unless I actually capture the Ruhr, its the only rail bridge that will allow me to extend my depot network onto the east bank of the Rhine.



Attempt to force the Rhine near Strasbourg fails.



But at Cologne I managed to surround the city



I also start to make some gains towards Wiesbaden, well I do till the French decide not to really help out



Still between following up the German retreat in the Netherlands and gains at Cologne, a pretty good turn



The Cologne encirclement has weak spots but those are partially protected by high levels of interdiction. I think the Germans can break through but will pay a price for interdiction. Equally, as the fighting this turn was very localised I have a substantial armoured reserve that has been resting for the last 2-3 turns.

So the weather next turn could be very important.

[jwolf]

Good luck with Cologne. And the weather. How are the Germans getting any fuel for their tanks?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Good luck with Cologne. And the weather. How are the Germans getting any fuel for their tanks?

I don't think they do have much fuel left, I've used the fuel filter a few times (realise its not very accurate) and the Pzrs are often orange/red. Also I am now seeing very few reserve reactions, some of this maybe interdiction but I wonder if he is short of movement points as well

[jwolf]

Yeah I'm wondering about this ... if his panzers are woefully short on MP then they are in effect barely mobile artillery units and really shouldn't cause much of a problem.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Yeah I'm wondering about this ... if his panzers are woefully short on MP then they are in effect barely mobile artillery units and really shouldn't cause much of a problem.

be interesting to hear Dave's view when the game is over ... at the moment the truth is apparently a state secret on that side of the PBEM.

I don't think he has much movement capacity. My feeling is one reason why I'm dislodging him is that he's afraid if I slip past his units they will lose any subsequent race to escape a pocket. Also, in a couple of turns I completely dismantle Dave's lines south of Cologne, I think in part as he couldn't respond as I started to shift the focus of my attack.

I've also wrecked most of his rail yards so I guess that his remaining rail capacity really has to go on fuel and supplies rather than moving units.

[loki100]

Turn 88: 10-16 March 1945

Unsporting behaviour, episode #1001 ... yet another German attack



Well that was a more powerful counter-attack than I thought was possible and Cologne is back to being linked to the Reich.

I was so busy being outraged that I almost forgot to check the weather .. well cold skies went someway to helping me over my feelings of shock.



Uncle Joe had one of his movements.



Set up a bombing pattern with two basic goals. To enable a small offensive to the north of Cologne and to support the Wiesbaden-Frankfurt operation. The latter is now the most important as I think I can force the Germans to pull back at Cologne if I can breach their lines to the south.



Better design of the boxes reduced my losses to 313 shot down and 1300 damaged. Also most of the Cologne bombing was aimed at supply/rail interdiction rather than directly attacking units.

Offensive at Wiesbaden was a mix of successful and some very very annoying VG divisions who decided to re-enact the Soviet defense of Stalingrad.

It all started very well, French being particularly frisky this turn



Then I made some gains to the north and decided it was time for a stack of 3 German infantry divisions to get out of my way.



Ok this is frustrating, I really need that hex.

So bring up the New Zealanders .. tell them that the Germans have stolen all the rugby balls ... should be enough?



No ...

Ok no choice now, have to use some British armour ...



Yep ... of course I now have a combat delay of 12 in a hex I was planning to use as the basis of my offensive

Even so, time to party, this was the last attack and it gave me a broad break in the German defensive lines, as well as a small pocket



Overall, small gains in the Netherlands, deepen my pocket around Cologne, but now real possibilities between Cologne and Wiesbaden for a break out.

[jwolf]

This time it looks like you've got Cologne for sure -- plus a good breakout to the south as you said. Dave's defense (and offense!!) are much stronger than I would have supposed, which is a testament to his careful management of the German forces. But with the gains from this turn I think the Rhine will be fully breached and no longer viable as a defensive line, and I don't know where or how he will set up another line anywhere near as good as that.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

This time it looks like you've got Cologne for sure -- plus a good breakout to the south as you said. Dave's defense (and offense!!) are much stronger than I would have supposed, which is a testament to his careful management of the German forces. But with the gains from this turn I think the Rhine will be fully breached and no longer viable as a defensive line, and I don't know where or how he will set up another line anywhere near as good as that.

he is very good at judging when to pull back, its akin to playing the Soviets in 1942 when you are always gambling between pulling back too early (and giving up terrain for free) or too late (and ending up in another pocket).

he promises me the line you'll see in the next post is his last one ... well I'll believe that when I reach Berlin [8D], but its going to be tough to breach, even if I have decent weather

[loki100]

Turn 89: 17-23 March 1945

Weather Watch ... heavy mud, heavy rain

Supply watch:

main challenge now is of supply delivery to the forward units. I am starting to do much less juggling of units between commands and have a fairly strict hierarchy of supply receipt at the Corps level. This really shows, divisions in a corps set to #1 are often just 2cv, but I am keeping the ammunition and supply levels for my key formations pretty high.



Very little fighting, basically clearing out the pockets from last turn. In particular, Cologne is mine



That will ease supply to my forces east of the Rhine.

Across most of the front, the Germans pulled back after my successes last turn. Given the weather, my pursuit is limited, I'm happy to send the weaker infantry formations to occupy abandoned towns and let the armour rest.



All of a sudden there are some real possibilities in the south. The Germans there are weak and a breakout could threaten Munich and Nuremburg, as well as turn the flank of the Germans around Frankfurt.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: loki100

he promises me the line you'll see in the next post is his last one ... well I'll believe that when I reach Berlin [8D], but it's going to be tough to breach, even if I have decent weather.

Why would this line be especially tough? If you get good supply across the Rhine through Cologne, and if you can get good bombing weather, I would think you could break him completely.

Of course it would be easier with that Danish flank threat against Hamburg ... [;)]

[ivaldi]

before the end of the scenario, you can not do on the offensive in a big way?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: loki100

he promises me the line you'll see in the next post is his last one ... well I'll believe that when I reach Berlin [8D], but it's going to be tough to breach, even if I have decent weather.

Why would this line be especially tough? If you get good supply across the Rhine through Cologne, and if you can get good bombing weather, I would think you could break him completely.

Of course it would be easier with that Danish flank threat against Hamburg ... [;)]

yes, that imaginary green line sweeping down past Kiel is the missing element in my fictional maps (that plus the lost 100 vps)

north of the Ruhr it is breakable, but it is a 45-60 defensive cv line, so needs careful attention and to attack with real strength, its a case of waiting till the bombing weather returns

ORIGINAL: ivaldi

before the end of the scenario, you can not do on the offensive in a big way?

good question. Basically I have a significant supply constraint, in that to keep the combat strength of my key formations high, others are kept weak. I think I've managed this well but it does mean that there are quite a lot of 2 or 3 cv infantry divisions on some sectors.

If I get a couple of turns of good bombing weather, I'm sure I can manage a major breakthrough and if I can break this defensive line then it will be a running battle over most of central and southern Germany (until the Soviets spoil the fun by capturing Berlin [;)])

[loki100]

Turns 90-91: 24 March – 6 April 1945

I'll conflate these turns as not much happened, but I did a lot of thinking and planning for the next stage. In effect, the weak spots in the German defences are now in the south and around Frankfurt.

Weather Watch: heavy mud, heavy rain (for both)

VP Watch (T90):



As is traditional on a turn where I do nothing, my score improves

Key Pools:

As to be expected, no real problems with any of these



Supply net. In the south, a bit limited mainly due to the smaller depot sizes, in the north as good as you can hope for.



On T91, managed a small insignificant attack that actually created some real opportunities



In terms of troop movements, I was redeploying. Goal is to bring US 5 Army into the southern sector and US 1 Army to threaten Frankfurt. 2 British can threaten the Saarland. This was complete by the end of T91.



Really now a case of waiting for better weather and hoping the Soviets don't really bother with trying to take Berlin.