Fischia il Vento - loki100 vs smokindave34 ... German marginal victory T94

[jwolf]

Bad news on the weather. Hope it turns for the better very quickly. Question, though: whereas in WITE a mud turn will just about stop everything, is it that way in WITW with better road networks?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Bad news on the weather. Hope it turns for the better very quickly. Question, though: whereas in WITE a mud turn will just about stop everything, is it that way in WITW with better road networks?

In WiTW, even heavy mud is not the end of operations. They use the concept of a national road network to reflect roughly how common fully hardened road surfaces are. So while heavy mud makes operations difficult, its not the complete block it is in WiTE. I've worked out that with the allies at least, ground conditions are not that critical, what matters is can you bring your airpower to effect combat.

at the risk of giving away the core of the next post, the air weather improved to light rain even though the ground stayed heavy mud. That allowed quite a few attacks, as I was able to weaken the defenders enough that the hit on my attacking cv was not such a major problem.

[jwolf]

OK thanks for the explanation. I keep forgetting with the Western Allies it's the tac bombers that control the flow for ground ops.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

OK thanks for the explanation. I keep forgetting with the Western Allies it's the tac bombers that control the flow for ground ops.

Aye, its taken me a while to grasp that, its less obvious vs the AI but in PBEM for the allies it is all about the application of airpower, events on the ground are the consequence of that rather than the main driver

[loki100]

Turn 92: 7 – 13 April 1945

Weather watch: Heavy Mud/light rain

So I decided on an experiment, in effect if you can bomb without too many problems can you overcome the combat malus of heavy mud?

First find things to bomb. In that allocation US 8 and 9 Air are attacking north of Frankfurt and I've switched Tactical Air to the south. I've been using Med Tac Air, Malta Air and 15 Air to support my operations in the south since late 1944 but this is the first serious bombing down there.



Now I am no longer bombing in the Ruhr, my flak losses/damage went down. Overall that was an active turn in the air as I lost 350 planes and had 900 damaged. The Germans lost 260 and had another 220 damaged.

One reason for the high losses was that the bombing by 9 Air in support of 2 British was heavily contested.



But of more importance was yet more #unsporting behaviour by the Germans.

I mean it really is pretty underhand to set up an air superiority directive with your Me-262s deep over my territory. Fortunately, I have kept on escorting my bombers.



I think this was Hermann's revenge after I destroyed all his tanks a few turns ago [1]

Anyway, managed pretty decent interdiction levels. Especially in the south, that level of interdiction in the rear will limit resupply and make it very hard to move in reserves.



2 British waded through the mud and drove the Germans out of Siegen.



I think that answers the test. I had about 1.2-1 odds at the start but the units were well rested and with lots of ammunition. In turn those German defenders had a lot of disrupted elements.

In the south, I dismantled the German lines around Stuttgart and made progress towards Ulm. Main problem here is the mud hampering movement rather than combat. But a large second wave is now in position to exploit this next turn and its going to be very hard for the Germans to reinforce this sector.



I was on the point of sending the turn back when I returned my attention to the Ruhr. I had almost surrounded Duesseldorf over recent turns, so why not attack?

Indeed why not



Ample reward for the Germans being so unsporting earlier ...

An attack with over 220,000 men and almost 3,000 guns brings back memories of WiTE with the Soviets [;)]

[1] Due to a rout the HG Pzr Division was left with 5 tanks

[jwolf]

Considering the weather, that seemed about as good as I could imagine. I liked the quasi "Soviet" attack with 200K men and lots of arty.

I couldn't tell from your screenshot -- how effective were the Me 262s against your planes?

[Q-Ball]

What do your bombing VP's look like now? I would expect a spike since you are taking some serious German industry, I am curious if that's registering yet in the VP totals

jwolf asked about Me-262.....from what I have seen, this plane is REALLY effective. Granted I always gave it to the best pilots, but in my game vs. Meklore they racked up 100s of kills with huge ratios. It's awesome! Allies should make bombing the Me-262 plants a priority, you'll save yourself alot of trouble

Not sure what other found, but I also found the Me-163 to be nearly useless.....I think you're better off just using FW 190s or whatever.

I didn't get much chance to evaluate the He-162, but I wasn't too impressed from what little I could see

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Considering the weather, that seemed about as good as I could imagine. I liked the quasi "Soviet" attack with 200K men and lots of arty.

I couldn't tell from your screenshot -- how effective were the Me 262s against your planes?

there was something so satisfying about a good traditional quarter of million men and masses of artillery style attack

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

What do your bombing VP's look like now? I would expect a spike since you are taking some serious German industry, I am curious if that's registering yet in the VP totals

jwolf asked about Me-262.....from what I have seen, this plane is REALLY effective. Granted I always gave it to the best pilots, but in my game vs. Meklore they racked up 100s of kills with huge ratios. It's awesome! Allies should make bombing the Me-262 plants a priority, you'll save yourself alot of trouble

Not sure what other found, but I also found the Me-163 to be nearly useless.....I think you're better off just using FW 190s or whatever.

I didn't get much chance to evaluate the He-162, but I wasn't too impressed from what little I could see

VPs I'm on +2 per turn, probably 1 for the legacy of all the damage I did up to Nov 44 and 1 for the factories and manpower centres along the Rhine.

I was bombing the Me-262 factories from mid-1944. In truth with 15 Air you can run out of priority targets and those factories are mostly in range, so I hit them for practice. As a result, I've not really felt any hit from the Me-262s. Even that set of ambushes only cost me around 15 planes. Helps that for a while I've not given the Meteors any missions so they are available for air defense missions.

[loki100]

Turn 93: 14-20 April 1945


Weather watch: light mud/rain

So good enough to sustain both a major bombing effort and to ease ground operations.

VP, still firmly in the middle of the axis minor victory range. Note I am gaining strategic bombing VP despite having done no missions since November 1944. This in part a legacy of the damage inflicted up to that stage but also reflects the HI and population centres I have captured along the Rhine.



Air losses were minimal. I had 100 shot down and 1000 damaged, shot down 112 German planes and damaged another 60. Lower rates of damaged planes reflects no longer operating in the high flak Ruhr region.

Bombing was concentrated into two areas. Around Stuttgart where I set up interdiction zones and at Frankfurt where I opted for some attacks on specific units.

At the Ruhr, an attempt to repeat last turn's success at Dusseldorf failed. At least my losses were very light and I did some damage to the fort levels.



At Frankfurt, the attacks on the two units I had set up with direct air attacks were very successful.



That gave me my first major armoured breakout, almost all the armour in US 1 Army was able to drive deep into Germany.



In the south, Stuttgart was surrounded as again the German line fell apart.



Unfortunately, Uncle Joe rather got into the spirit of things and also made some important gains.

[jwolf]

I would imagine at this point that organized German resistance is just about over. How much longer will the game go on -- up to the fall of Berlin, or at a specific date?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I would imagine at this point that organized German resistance is just about over. How much longer will the game go on -- up to the fall of Berlin, or at a specific date?

in theory to T110, in reality Uncle Joe will define when it all ends ...

If it ends before T96 (ie historical end) I gain some VPs if it ends after that I lose additional VPs ... I guess this is rewarding Dave for managing both fronts particularly well.

Since for the first time, the only effective block on my offensive is fuel, I'd quite like a bit longer ... But

[loki100]

T94 is cancelled

Oh ... Uncle Joe decided to end my fun



So lets look at some metrics. VP flow turned against me after I botched the Italian campaign. Dave not only started to keep city VP but was able to over-garrison some provinces, earning more VP that way



He was running out of fuel:



But not really out of supply



Looks like the Soviets were chewing up his EF strength



My VP for bombing. This is something I'd gain more for in 1943 now.



Relative airpower:



Dave has confessed that my sustained 'hunt the Luftwaffe' campaign in Italy really paid off in terms of weakening his airforce.

Losses



Some general chat

I think the game is now pretty well balanced. Sure there is need for more tweaking (as inevitably the PBEM community will come up with new plans and approaches) but I lost about 120 VP for not having a strategy in Italy, another 100 for the Danish idiocy and probably 60 for being much too careless with the Paratroops. Add on probably 50-75 that I should have earned for a better 1943 bombing campaign and that puts the game pretty well in the middle of a draw.

What I did wrong:

1) Italy. Its hard to reflect how wrong this went. I simply never settled on a plan for how to use the TF resources and kept on swapping targets. I then picked the wrong site to trigger the Italian surrender as I landed exactly where the Salerno guns could extract attrition. One hex to the south and I could have sat there till my armies staggered up the coast. This set in train a series of errors and I never had the confidence to land near Rome despite having almost my entire naval and tactical air ready for action;
2) Denmark. Ok, everyone knows this, but do not, ever, attack a defended fort in a snowstorm when your air power really doesn't work. A gambit based on landings in the north end of Jutland might be interesting;
3) I didn't do a great job of the battles to the south of Paris (T56-T69), ended up probably with too much attrition. But then I'm not too sure I had that much choice.

What I did right:

1) Sicily was efficient
2) Normandy was well managed, using tactical air to wreck German mobility gave me a good quick breakout
3) Worked out how to manage the Supply Depot/Unit Priority relationship so that I usually had the core formations with decent CV and MP (as an aside I think Dave should have contested a few ports more substantially but I can understand not wanting to lose too many divisions);
4) Use of tactical airpower in France – I went for a brutal rather than elegant model, hitting units directly but it paid off. I think the extent that I just rested my army in bad weather turns is an indication of how important tactical air is to the allies

And

Dave is an excellent opponent.... he only mildly gloated after the Danish disaster (compared to my comments when Hermann's finest lost all their tanks). Generally I think we both gained from having played enough WiTE to understand the basics of the game and combat engine.

There is a problem for the German player of being essentially on the defensive and having to react. So to counteract this, coming soon will be round #2 ... where I will probably make an even bigger mess but this time of the Germans.

[Joel Billings]

Congrats on finishing your game and AAR, and thanks for the entertaining read.

[jwolf]

Thanks for the great AAR, really a pleasure to follow your game. As for the ending ... it's almost as though the Reds had some spies in the Western ranks to tell them when to put the pedal to the metal and win the race for Berlin. But we know the Soviets would never do such a dishonorable thing. [;)] Good luck as you switch to the dark side.

[smokindave34]

Thanks for the great game Loki and on the excellent AAR (as all of your AAR's are - I don't know where you find all these photos?). A few observations from the Wolf's Lair....

1) As Loki stated my biggest advantage was the lack of a serious second front to defend in Italy. Once it was obvious there was to be no second landing I was able to strip most of my forces from Italy for the defense of France. This was a huge advantage as I was able to keep a fairly strong line while sending the bulk of my manpower to rebuild understrength units on the East Front.

2) Loki's systematic targeting of my airbases in Italy completely wrecked the Luftwaffe Italian command. I had no choice but to pull back what little air defenses I had to northern Italy.

3) I could sense that Loki was getting the hang of how the supply system worked as the Western Allies moved east across France. The pace never seemed to slow down and in fact was picking up even in winter/rainy weather. By the end my forces were at the breaking point. Loki would have had a clean breakthrough with little to stop him in southern Germany - this was going to happen literally on the next turn (until the Soviets spoiled it for you!).

4) I think the EF box is better but I'm not sure it's completely balanced (we will tell more in our next game). I was committed to try and keep the Soviets on their historical pace by either adding to or removing from the EF box. I felt like I was still a bit too strong in France even with the Soviets on their historical pace (this may have been due to the light action in Italy). I didn't put one unit on refit on the Western Front for the last 2-3 months of gameplay deciding to try and keep the east front up to strength. I was kind of surprised that the Soviets jumped so far west on the last turn since a turn earlier they were right on pace. As the axis player I guess I would like to play with EF box on since it gives you some options to toy with.

I think the learning curve is much steeper for the Western Allies in this game and if we played again I think at best I would get a draw. As I stated earlier by the end of summer I could tell Loki had mastered the supply situation and I was struggling to hold on.

Looking forward to round 2 of our War in the West! By the way, if I were you I would build significant defensive works in northern Denmark as I hear it is ripe for an invasion (sorry....I couldn't help it [;)])

[rickier65]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Congrats on finishing your game and AAR, and thanks for the entertaining read.

+1

Thanks!
Rick

[Seminole]

4) I think the EF box is better but I'm not sure it's completely balanced (we will tell more in our next game). I was committed to try and keep the Soviets on their historical pace by either adding to or removing from the EF box. I felt like I was still a bit too strong in France even with the Soviets on their historical pace (this may have been due to the light action in Italy). I didn't put one unit on refit on the Western Front for the last 2-3 months of gameplay deciding to try and keep the east front up to strength. I was kind of surprised that the Soviets jumped so far west on the last turn since a turn earlier they were right on pace. As the axis player I guess I would like to play with EF box on since it gives you some options to toy with.

I'm glad the EF box is there for exploration, but I think the EF advance is difficult to abstract well, and I worry that the EF box can do a lot to unbalance the OoB restrictions the Axis face, especially early on in '43. I say this having started a few games with it and Allied players not making it to turn 20.
S2tanker has requested a rematch, this time with EF box on. I intend to see how it can be pushed. One thing that was hard to understand before was the kind of negative point potential you were building by stripping it. The garrison feedback is swift and sharp. The EF advance can hurt as bad or worse, but it will be interesting to see how well that can be read and dealt with in advance.
I do always feel AP starved as the Axis. How much do you think you spent moving units back and forth? What more can you tell us about how you used the EF box? Move Luftwaffe much?
I haven't tried it since the most recent patch adjustments.

[smokindave34]

My philosophy on the use of the EF box was to keep the Soviets on their historical position. This was somewhat of a self imposed house rule because I think it's possible (less so under the latest update) to game the EF box and send a lot of units West to hold the WA's to a standstill.

Initially I moved the mountain divisions from the EF to Italy, I think this is common practice. Throughout the entire game I did not move any Luftwaffe units or artillery units from the EF to the WF. I just didn't feel they'd make a significant difference to the outcome.

Most of my time in the EF box was spent deciding which units to refit. By the fall/winter I stopped refitting units on the WF altogether and would put every unit on the EF that was understrength on refit. Also, as the Soviets came closer to Berlin (Jan/Feb '45) I started transferring panzer/mech units to the EF to try and stem the tide. By the very end I think I only had 4 or 5 (if that) mobile units on the WF. The mobile units have more impact on the EF combat value and Loki's strategic air campaign was crippling my fuel reserves so my panzers were down to very little fuel so I felt I'd be better served by having them on the EF.

I never could predict how far the EF line would move based on Soviet potential. For example the last turn the Soviet potential was in the mid 30's and they moved from the Oder to Berlin which was more than I expected. I could get a general sense on if the EF would move significantly or not based on potential but I could never predict the outcome within 4 or 5 hexes (probably a good thing).

[Joel Billings]

Keep in mind this game was started 6 months ago, long before the recent changes to the EF box. I think it will be much harder to withdraw German units from the EF box and not suffer large EF point losses (and an early end to the war). In fact, the system now assumes that units will be sent east as early as fall 43, or it should be falling behind.

[smokindave34]

Thanks Joel. Roger has elected to play as axis with the EF box on for our next game so we will see how the new changes effect the Soviet progress. Not sure if Roger is planning on another AAR?