Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

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Alfred
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Alfred »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I thought it was about .22 for each fortification level (max = x3, max level = 9, so (3-1)/9 = 0.222222...)?

So level 2 fortifications would be 1.44x (~1.5x not ~1.25x) and level 3 fortifications would be 1.66x (somewhat greater than ~1.5x).

Not meaning to throw off any main points.

The multiplier figures come from classical WITP and IIRC were posted by Feinder about 2006. His post had these figures:

0 fort, 1x multiplier
1 fort, 1.1x
2 fort, 1.25x
3 fort, 1.5x
4 fort, 1.75x
5 fort, 2x
6 fort, 2.25x
7 fort, 2.5x
8 fort, 2.75x
9 fort, 3x

So .25 increments except for the first increment.

Alfred
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witpqs
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I thought it was about .22 for each fortification level (max = x3, max level = 9, so (3-1)/9 = 0.222222...)?

So level 2 fortifications would be 1.44x (~1.5x not ~1.25x) and level 3 fortifications would be 1.66x (somewhat greater than ~1.5x).

Not meaning to throw off any main points.

The multiplier figures come from classical WITP and IIRC were posted by Feinder about 2006. His post had these figures:

0 fort, 1x multiplier
1 fort, 1.1x
2 fort, 1.25x
3 fort, 1.5x
4 fort, 1.75x
5 fort, 2x
6 fort, 2.25x
7 fort, 2.5x
8 fort, 2.75x
9 fort, 3x

So .25 increments except for the first increment.

Alfred
OK. Was that verified by a developer (I don't remember if Feinder was one)? Mostly curious, it's too detailed a nuance to do anything with.
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Lowpe,

2.  Whoever told you a distance of 10 hexes from the enemy is needed to maximise LCU morale recovery has badly misled you.  No such requirement exists.

At least I knew not to trust it fully...so much disinformation with the best of intentions percolating around.[:)]

Back to your Battambang line...I am planning on defending there and north of there, but seeing how quickly it could get flanked I wasn't putting much stock in it.

Plus, Pakse is building up with a full division, hq, and more.

Alfred
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Alfred »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I thought it was about .22 for each fortification level (max = x3, max level = 9, so (3-1)/9 = 0.222222...)?

So level 2 fortifications would be 1.44x (~1.5x not ~1.25x) and level 3 fortifications would be 1.66x (somewhat greater than ~1.5x).

Not meaning to throw off any main points.

The multiplier figures come from classical WITP and IIRC were posted by Feinder about 2006. His post had these figures:

0 fort, 1x multiplier
1 fort, 1.1x
2 fort, 1.25x
3 fort, 1.5x
4 fort, 1.75x
5 fort, 2x
6 fort, 2.25x
7 fort, 2.5x
8 fort, 2.75x
9 fort, 3x

So .25 increments except for the first increment.

Alfred
OK. Was that verified by a developer (I don't remember if Feinder was one)? Mostly curious, it's too detailed a nuance to do anything with.

Feinder wasn't a developer. He is Knavey's brother and we all know nothing like that would ever have occurred in real life.[:)]

I don't recall a developer ever confirming it. My recollection is that the post seemed to be based on some solid testing which may or may not have had some dev assistance.

What I do recall very clearly is that Nemo121 always used those figures when disclosing his pre combat calculations and his AARs seemed to always show actual results achieved consistent with the predicted outcome. Don't forget that prior to dispatching his PBEM turn Nemo often ran a test to guage the effectiveness of his dispositions.

Alfred
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witpqs
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by witpqs »

Pretty small difference overall anyway:

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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Cute Japanese ambushes? Do you mean cats? Perhaps in boxes?


From Tactical and Technical Trends, late 1943:

Japanese tactics in general are based on deception and rapid maneuver. They will go to extremes to create false impressions. Sheer weight of numbers and steam-roller tactics are apparently distasteful to them, as such tactics lack finesse, though they would probably be used if required. One gets the impression that the perfect solution to a tactical problem is a neatly performed stratagem, followed by an encirclement or a flanking attack driven home with the bayonet. This allows the commanders to demonstrate their ability, and the men to show their courage and ferocity in hand-to-hand fighting. Their plans are a mixture of military artistry and vain-glorious audacity.

Deception, stratagems and ruses must be expected at all times. Bulldog tenacity in carrying out a mission, even to annihilation, will very frequently give a most erroneous impression of the Japanese strength and will often result in small forces overcoming larger ones, as their units are not rendered ineffective until they are nearly all casualties.

This capacity for driving on despite losses is not displayed by officers only. Training for the Japanese has been so thorough that every man will keep plugging until his own part of the main mission is completed. Long experience has taught even the privates what must be done before a mission is completed, and discipline, lack of imagination, and fatalism, drives them on despite losses.

To the Japanese leader, tactics is an art, with decisions gained by skill, not by sheer power. Training and the delegation to subordinates of the initiative for independent action are most probably the factors that make such tactics simple.

The Japanese attempt to achieve surprise both in strategy and tactics and ruses are extensively employed.
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

April 10th, 1944

Some night bombing, ineffective of Osaka. Irving Sa intercept and get one bomber. Given the paucity of night bombing, I have switched 1 Irving squadron and one Nick squadron over to training. I will move the Nick D squadron (49 planes) to Port Arthur and put split it into thirds and use one third on night duty, and 2/3 on daytime CAP. I tried the Irving Sa in a daytime deep area CAP, and they simply don't work well at all during the day.

An empty xak-t gets hit by a torpedo south of Shanghai. E's put six hits on the sub, and should force it to return to Hokkaido or Marianas for repairs. The xak-t should live, although she has 20 fires so nothing is sure.

No bombing or sweeps of Honshu deep. Some bombing of unprotected Hachinohe. The first J2M3 squadron is staffed with planes and Tracom pilots.

Over in the far west, the Allies move 7 units east along the road to the central plains of Thailand. No movement towards Bangkok or Ayuthia. But both are bombed fairly heavily. Ayuthia simply cannot be held as the bombing is just too effective. I look at the comparable effectiveness of bombing at Bangkok and Uttaradit and wish I had built the forts much higher in Ayuthia. Uttaradit with forts 4 is almost immune; while Bangkok is tolerable. Supply is now just a little low at Bangkok and fine at Ayuthia so that problem almost solved for now.

Of my two little surprises last turn, the first spotted only 1 ship at extreme range and the kamikazes didn't fly. My timing must be off, or I counted hexes wrong, or the Allied fleet paused to refuel. [&:]

Over in the Andamans, I manage to catch the CVE task force, and sneak in a dive bombing run at them, escorts are at 1-1 parity versus CAP, however his were Corsair II and mine were Zekes. Radar gives him plenty of time to be waiting and formed up -- So no joy...I was hoping to catch another task force, but I was 1 hex off.

For the day I lose 30+ planes total, and the Allies lose 20+.

1 more day and the Fuso can steam away from Singers...still loading a convoy of fuel from Singers, should finish today and leave. The Allies expand their conquest in Malaya past Georgetown, forcing an INA unit to retreat to Alor Star (they did it in good order).

Another large troop convoy arrives at Luzon with all sorts of support troops from Babeldoab. From there they will head to China/Hokkaido/Japanese Islands.

Over 5K in Assault Value in ground pounders over the next 90 days. All needed.


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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

The 14th Division gets caught by bombers on the trains while trying to evacuate the area. Luckily not the much damage...

Morning Air attack on 14th/A Division, at 56,61 (Ayuthia)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Allied aircraft
Wellington B.X x 12
B-24D1 Liberator x 7

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington B.X: 11 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 7 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
178 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x Wellington B.X bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-24D1 Liberator bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
4 x B-24D1 Liberator bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Also attacking 14th/B Division ...
Also attacking 14th/C Division ...
Also attacking 14th/A Division ...
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

But then, this also happened. Perhaps, with the now entrained 14th gone (three fourths of the way to Udon Thanai), the bombing damage at Ayuthia will drop to acceptable levels.

Morning Air attack on 14th/B Division, at 56,61 (Ayuthia)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-20G Havoc x 12
B-17E Fortress x 2
B-25H Mitchell x 14

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 9 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 5 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
147 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 16 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x A-20G Havoc bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb
14 x B-25H Mitchell bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
2 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

Also attacking 14th/A Division ...
Also attacking 14th/B Division ...
Also attacking 14th/A Division ...
Also attacking 14th/B Division ...
Also attacking 14th/A Division ...
Also attacking 14th/B Division ...
Also attacking 14th/A Division ...
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

Just really great terrain to fight in Vietnam. [:)] Just need more troops![:)]



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You can see the supply situation evening out. The AV at Bangkok has repaired to 775 from 650. [:)]
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JocMeister
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by JocMeister »

Sadly for you there is also lots of room to flank...once he gets into the plains with his armor things will move very quickly. So be ready for that! I would also consider abandoning the southern parts of Thailand/Vietnam to shorten the line considerably. You don´t want to get trapped down there while he races East into China. It will threaten your shipping in the SCS and put Miri within 4E range but that can be dealt with. Getting cut off with most of the IJA can´t be dealt with. If you get cut off he will be in Shanghai in 3-6 months...Sure Saigon is some nice allied VPs but you are going to lose that eventually anyway.

Personally I would fight a retreating battle back to the area around Vihn. This will free up a lot of troops for you and let your battered troops recover. It will also free up some troops for you to create a reserve force and possibly move out some troops to more critical locations (Luzon comes to mind). Then leave something behind for him to mop up to buy time.

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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

I agree with you Jocke, the hex north east of Ubon is the critical hex. And cutting across from there to the coast cuts everything off.

A lot depends upon where the Allies go, and if they break up their troop concentrations.

I am worried about the attack on the jungle road east of Ayuthia today. Should the Allies bomb it with everything, and continue pressuring there it will be ugly. It's AA hasn't arrived.

I very well may start putting all the 3 day units on trains in Bangkok and Ayuthia. No attack is present, and if the hex looks like it can hold, then switch them back to combat mode.



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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

Ok, turn is away. I only had to put the 4th division in SR mode at Bangkok & Ayuthia, everything else is two days or one day.

I think I could use a few well wishes today on the road north east of Ayuthia. Also, the Allies will be expanding their invasion in Malaya.

Picking up troops off Cocos and Xmas Island #10 shortly. Pakse and Vientiane are pretty well held, looking to get some infantry digging in the key jungle terrain along the river. I think Jocke is right the the river line east of Vinh needs to see the strongest allocation of Japanese strength, and the southern line, starting at Battambang the weaker line.

I have troops on the way...1 experienced division and 1 regiment from China; about six naval guard units from the lower SRA which may end up near Saigon once I actually get them.

Set up more traps today. Will deploy the J2M3 tomorrow. Nice to have a fresh, full strength squadron.
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

Looking ahead, I think these two hexes will be important. Retreat paths look iffy on the north hex, and to Pakse on the hex.

I have 3 tank regiments arriving, 1 electric engineer unit (with a dozen lousy engineering tanks), and infantry arriving to start digging in here.

If I can hold here, I think it likely there will be a very interesting defense of the river and lower Vietnam. If the Allies stay concentrated in a single thrust, then the only recourse most likely will be the Vinh line.

A lot depends on todays turn...will the Allies punch thru to the central plains?

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mind_messing
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by mind_messing »

My suggestion would be to consolidate your troops into two defensive areas: Saigon and Vihn.

For Saigon, I'd gather what you can into a defensive perimeter between Saigon and Cam Ranh Bay, with the goal of denying Saigon to the Allies as long as possible. The lack of Allied naval power in the region means you can ship supplies and reinforcements to Saigon at your leisure.

The Allies will also have to divert troops from their drive northwards to ensure that there isn't a Japanese breakout. If the Allies decide to attempt to take Saigon, you can funnel reinforcements and supply in as needed, and the IJN can even help with bombardment runs. Festung Saigon is a sure guarantee that the Allies cannot bring all the AV they have to bear on the Vinh line.

If the circumstances are right and the Allies leave too weak a screen to watch Festung Saigon, then there's even the possibility for a counter-attack out of the perimeter.

The Vinh line is a simple static defense to ensure that the Allies don't roll into Southern China. It's also where the road & rail network bottlenecks.

I think your current deployments are inviting the Allies to defeat you piecemeal and to use their numerous armored units to run rings around your troops. Forcing the Allies to smash roadblock after roadblock may buy you some time, but you really want to stop them cold.
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

M-M, I put up all those lines to show potential holding spots.

I don't really plan on having one small road block after another.[;)] But I do want to try and get some tanks and infantry dug in outside of bases.

Fortress Saigon, eh? Has a catchy name.[:)]
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

April 11th, 1944

No night bombing. I put 40 Franks for an ambush at Ominato, and he picks today to bombard with two surface groups. We get 1 hit on the Pennsylvania, and lose 1 Frank. But the planes are not flying, and the Allies come and bomb. If not for the bombardment it would have been a nice trap.[:(]

Mixed fights all over Honshu. Mixed bombing against Frank factories, Ha45 engines, and Manpower.

We hold on the jungle road. Allies bring 4 tanks and more but we hold with a 1-1 even losses basically, favor Allies though.

But the shocker is 2700 AV storming across the river and taking Ayuthia after heavy bombing. Never even saw the troops moving.

In a pickle now, perhaps the 1st and 2nd Tank divsions can save the day. Perhaps not. I will have to re-watch the replay to see the ending shape of the two mobile units at Ayuthia. Danger, danger.

He will most likely move something into Bangkok, I wander if there is any chance to rail the 1 day units out before he arrives. Depends who moves first I guess and how quickly he moves into Bangkok.

Image

At least I have supply! [:)]

EDIT: Provisional Tank Brigade at 27 AV, 255th Tank Brigade at 121. I believe the 255th probably has in the neighborhood of 175 tanks full strength guess from the AV and certainly not the junky ones for 1941. Shermans no doubt. All Allied divisions were knocked down to the low 200s, except the Chinese one which is 500. Hm....anybody have a clue on the strength of the Provisional Tank Brigade? I don't recall it at all. I have seen it fight before and want to say low 100s?
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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

Some good news, a battleship will escape from Singers.

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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

This doesn't bode well...two bombardments and heavy bombing heavily disrupt the Japanese defenders at Hachinohe. I will send more troops there pronto. Might have to march them...perhaps some more coastal guns too.



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Lowpe
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RE: Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

Post by Lowpe »

The Allies bombed Nagoya today with B29s but only 2 showed up. They were with a bunch of B24J of which we damaged a bunch and downed three, but we failed to bring down any B29s.

That only 2 showed up is I think a testament to poor morale, over work, high plane fatigue possible. They seem to fly every two to three days on missions with B24s.

Putting my first J2M3 squadron, hoping for good things. My best pilots...[:)]
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