Avoiding the Turkeyshoot – Marianas Scen Justus2 (J) vs nardiajn (A)

[Justus2]

28 JULY

Quiet turn, other than our version of ‘Washing Machine Charlie’, a single Liberator over Truk, there are no sea or air actions. Deliberate assault at Tinian causes plenty of casualties for both sides, but frustratingly, takes forts down to 1 – I was 98% of the way to level 3 last turn! [:@] Checking after, I am at 70% toward getting level 2 back, as fast as they were building I hope I can reach it next turn.

[Justus2]

The inevitable finally occurred. A moment of silence for the brave defenders of Pagan… [&o]

These troops have held out for nearly six weeks (since 17 June). The initial defenders were the same 4 units, an SNLF of about 50 AV and three JAAF Bns, facing the better part of an RCT and two tank units with artillery and engineer support, with no real way to damage the tanks. I looked back at my original post when they first landed, and I said “hopefully it can hold out a few turns.” [X(] That was 40 turns ago, and they’ve been tying up these forces as well as a couple reinforcement attempts, and more importantly keeping this Level 5 airfield out of his hands during the crucial phases of the campaign. They have epitomized the Code of Bushido! [&o]

I could still try a bombardment run to damage the airfield, but I don’t think he will be able to get enough Av Support forward in time to make use of the airfield at this point.

[Justus2]

Al said in email he is pulling back his TFs to reload/rearm for a final push. You can see all the TFs further east of the Marianas. I am going to use the break to finish reorganizing and refueling KB, it’s moving into Iwo to draw fuel from some of the parked BBs. I was able to fly a squadron off ZUIKAKU, and I still have some shuffling of airframes to do.

I’m also loading a couple xAKs from Babel with supplies to run into Saipan, and a fast trans TF from Ulithi. That CV TF remains just east of Truk, I think he’s got them on Nav Attack to keep me from using Truk as a base for any more raiding. I’m pulling my cruisers to Ulithi, I have 4 xAKs with fuel that snuck out of Truk a couple days ago that will arrive there tomorrow. [8D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

I could still try a bombardment run to damage the airfield, but I don’t think he will be able to get enough Av Support forward in time to make use of the airfield at this point.

That's right.

It would have been wise of him to include base forces, CBs or other engineer units to effect a clean up and get started on shuttling in airframes. As it stands, the base will be trashed and unusable until he can redirect some of the base forces there. Even with the miracle of Allied engineering, this won't happen overnight. That airfield is dead to him for at least another week.

[Chickenboy]

Pagan Defenders!

ETA: That sounds like a good name for a heavy metal band, doesn't it?

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Justus2

I could still try a bombardment run to damage the airfield, but I don’t think he will be able to get enough Av Support forward in time to make use of the airfield at this point.

That's right.

It would have been wise of him to include base forces, CBs or other engineer units to effect a clean up and get started on shuttling in airframes. As it stands, the base will be trashed and unusable until he can redirect some of the base forces there. Even with the miracle of Allied engineering, this won't happen overnight. That airfield is dead to him for at least another week.

Another week is all I need [;)] This turn was the 28th and it ends on Aug 6th.

[Chickenboy]

Any chance you can 'fast transport' pick up the remnants of those base forces from Pagan? They'll be destroyed outright soon. Since VPs are calculated on the basis of destroyed devices (squads, support, etc.), you can effectively deny him some VPs by evacuating a fragment of what's left. *IF* you think you can get in and out and not get stuck there underneath a bunch of DBs, that is.

[Justus2]

No, unfortunately, they were all destroyed by attrition at the end of the turn. They literally fought to the last man (unless one of them is hiding in a cave until the 1960s...) [:'(]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

No, unfortunately, they were all destroyed by attrition at the end of the turn. They literally fought to the last man (unless one of them is hiding in a cave until the 1960s...) [:'(]

Bummer, man.

What's the AF/port damage like there now?

[Justus2]

The mouse-over didn't show any. He hasn't bombarded in a couple weeks, so it was fully functional when I had it. I don't know how much damage it would take from the capture. He does have an engineer unit there, although it took quite a few engineer squads disabled over the course of the battle. I have a recon flight checking it out this turn.

None of the units there have any aviation support, we'll have to see if he lands any or flies any in. If he does try to ship some in, KB could try to intercept, if he doesn't cover it well. Also, Pagan is within escorted Betty range of Iwo (12 hexes), I have about two dozen Betties/Frances there with an Air HQ.

[Justus2]

29 JULY

Quiet turn, no sub or air attacks, just a sinking sound during the daylight naval movement phase, hopefully one of the damaged APAs returning from Tinian. Another deliberate assault at Tinian. Defenders hold out well, even with only one fort level, and repel the Allies with nearly 1,000 casualties. The best news follows, though as forts return to Level 2! Carryover puts them at 10% to level 3, we’ll see if they make it before the final assault.

KB rests a turn at Iwo. Recon shows only one point of airfield damage at Pagan, and 42 points port damage. No aircraft present yet. We'll see if he brings any aircraft or AvSpt up.

[Justus2]

30 JULY

No sea or air action again today, just one ASW action near Babel (inconclusive). This is the calm before the final storm. Al launches another deliberate assault at Tinian. He reduces the forts back down to 1 [:(] but takes heavy casualties. I was surprised to see so many destroyed, over 100 combat squads! In the last three attacks, his raw AV has dropped from 419 to 305 (before this turn’s losses), while mine has only dropped from 470 to 448. The modifier isn’t showing a negative for disruption, but I think he must have lots of disabled squads that are getting hit again, becoming destroyed. Forts stand at 70% toward level 2, hopefully I can rebuild them next turn.

You can see multiple subs around the lower Marianas on the map. I am going to wave off the FT TF I was about to send in, with only a week left in the game it’s not worth losing a combat ship to a sub for a few hundred supply. I have over 6K at Saipan and Tinian, and over 10K at Guam. I have a couple xAKs headed to Tinian, if I have a chance I will run them in when they get close. I am more willing to risk 10VP for an xAK to unload several thousand supplies. I’m not going to run out before the scenario is over, but that could take me over 2x supply, which I think helps with recovering disabled squads to withstand his final assault.

Still no sign of aircraft at Pagan, runway damage remains at one, but port is down to 29.

Al is headed on vacation, so I won’t get another turn for a few days. Probably a good thing, I need to focus on a couple papers this week. [;)] I'm going to hold the turn until tomorrow, just want to review pilots and some other settings, not much else to do but sit and wait for his final charge.

[Chickenboy]

6,000 supply at Guam and (particularly) Saipan won't last long under seige. You'll find that rigorous and repeated bombardment evaporates much of this. Can you get Saipan's supply up north of 10k? 15-20k would be better yet.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

6,000 supply at Guam and (particularly) Saipan won't last long under seige. You'll find that rigorous and repeated bombardment evaporates much of this. Can you get Saipan's supply up north of 10k? 15-20k would be better yet.

I have about 6K on two xAKs headed to the islands now, should arrive turn after next. I have some more xAKs that just arrived at Pelileu, but I don't think I can get them there in time. There's only 7 turns left in the scenario, and he has no TFs on the horizon, so I think he will only be able to get in 2-3 days of bombardments max before his final assault.

I also think he will put everything into an attempt to win the day at Tinian, rather than a fresh assault at Saipan, but we'll have to be prepared either way. I have noticed supplies do shift between Tinian and Saipan (the adjacent ports rule), when he first landed Tinian was drawing supplies from Saipan.

[Justus2]

Finally finished the turn and sent it tonight, don’t expect a turn back for a couple more days. KB drew some more fuel from the parked BBs, and is headed SE. You can see the reorganized air groups in the upper right, all attack planes and escorts set to range 7 (max range for the Judys, normal range for the fighters and Jills). A couple of the A6M5 squadrons are at 20K for high CAP, the rest are at 15K with the attack planes.

I still have the two fast BBs W of the Marianas, ready to run in if I see an opportunity, but staying undetected at this point. My FT TF with the 2 CAs is headed back to Ulithi to unload and be used as a SCTF if needed, you can see the swarm of subs he has near Guam/Tinian. The supply TF is headed in from the west, I have a couple DDs heading to Tinian from Ulithi to try to clear some subs away.

Al seems to still be organizing, I don’t see any of his TFs except one CVTF near Eniwetok.

[Justus2]

Quick update, Al's back from vacation, but nothing much happened this turn - only combat was allied ground bombardment at Tinian. Forts went back up to 2. I know he's prepping for one more major assault, but doesn't look like it's set sail yet, at least I can't spot it from Truk. Supply xAKs moving closer, they will be 3 hexes off Saipan tomorrow, I have a couple different DD TFs moving in to sweep subs ahead of them. Otherwise, KB continues to prowl NE of Pagan, no sign of air activity there yet either.

[Chickenboy]

I'm sensing an epic Allied failure here. The next week will see, but it's not looking good for them. [8D]

[Justus2]

1 AUG

The tension builds, as another turn goes by without seeing the invasion force. We are officially in August, so the clock is ticking, but I’m sure there is one more wave coming. My DDs find a sub and beat it up a bit, but nothing major. Transports (not showing in this screenshot) are 4 hexes NW of Saipan, should land tomorrow.

Allied assault causes more casualties for him, and the forts hold at level 2. If he doesn’t land more forces, I’m pretty confident Tinian will hold, even if he does I don’t know if he’ll have the time to capitalize. The scenario end date is 6 August, I don't know if that means we get to issue orders on the 6th and they resolve, or if the orders for the 5th are really the last turn. So 4 or 5 turns remaining.

[Justus2]

2 AUG

Still quiet, although I have spotted two small CVTFs headed NW from Eniwetok. There’s also a small TF showing 3 DDs, could be an ASW sweep, or maybe APDs running some AvSpt to Pagan. My supply xAKs have arrived safely at Saipan, and unloaded about 2K so far. [8D]

Another deliberate assault at Tinian, losses not as high but forts hold again, and lots of destroyed squads and guns for him. Also, I get a plus for leaders, looking back that’s been pretty sporadic but it made a huge difference in my adjusted AV this turn. [:)]

[Justus2]

3 AUG

I finally got a penetrating hit on an Allied sub! No message of it sinking, but I’ll take any success I can get on the ASW front. Just to show how lopsided it has been, see the sunk ship listing below – I’ve lost 13 regular subs so far (not counting another dozen mini-subs). I have four more in repair at Truk (more on that in a minute), and another 5 that have over 20 float damage but are still in use [X(] usually point defense at a port, one is laying mines at Tinian.

Meanwhile, I’ve only gotten one reported sinking against the Allies, and that was from a mine. Their ASW is just phenomenal in this period, and Japanese ASW hasn’t been very effective. [8|]