A Grey Steppe Eagle (loki100 vs Vigabrand)

[loki100]

Turn 68: 1- 7 October 1942

Early October saw the Germans maintain their offensive towards Moscow. The equivalent of 2 armies were encircled around Kaluga and in the centre. Of particular concern, the Germans had forced the broad Oka river threatening the southern approach to Moscow.



Stavka's orders to the exhausted units that had suffered defeat after defeat in September was clear. The enemy were just over 50 miles from Moscow, there was no space to retreat.

In an attempt to stall the Germans, Vasilevsky's 22 Army struck and managed to open a narrow supply corridor to the units of 54 Army.


[1]


(Part of 22 Army's offensive)

To the south, the cavalry formations of 4 Army widened the corridor to the formations at Kaluga.



Among the debris of the battlefield, the Soviet cavalrymen found the wrecked remnants of a completely new German tank. NKVD units were hastily dispatched and the tanks removed for closer examination.


(destroyed Tiger tank north of Kaluga)

The units deep in the pocket tried to broaden the corridor by attacking out but these attacks mostly failed with very heavy losses.



In the meantime Stavka decided to gamble. With the German Panzers fully committed at Moscow, the estimate was the rest of their front lacked any armoured formations. Despite losing much of their best infantry to reinforce the Moscow battles, Crimean, South-Eastern and Trans-Caucasus Fronts were ordered over to the offensive. To assist, Stavka released 3 Tank Armies from reserve [2]. Combined with the armour of Crimean Front, this meant the Soviet southern forces had almost 4,000 tanks.



Protected by a massive VVS deployment from reserve, the Soviets were prepared to gamble with the fickle autumn weather in the south and the German fixation on Moscow.

[3]

OOB



Losses remained high. The Germans lost 27,000 men (10,000 killed), 240 tanks (in the various Moscow battles) and 150 planes. Soviet losses were 82.000 men (18,000 killed and 40,000 prisoners), 440 tanks and 340 planes.

[1] At the moment, almost all the German armour is here, oddly I want to keep it relatively immobile rather than allow it to shift to a weaker sector.
[2] Voronezh Front
[3] This is a rather risky plan B. I'd originally been planning another major retreat down here, give up Rostov and deploy weak forces to the Caucasus and the bulk to Stalingrad-Voronezh sector. The complete lack of any German mobile units makes this a gamble worth considering ... how well it works will depend on the weather and if I have misjudged about the location of the Pzrs.

[Matnjord]

Oh dear, Moskva threatened in 1942? I wouldn't have thought that possible just 4 months ago! Hopefully the weather will come to your rescue as soon as possible. Let's pray for some mud...

[chaos45]

Mud hits soon, Moscow wont fall.

This will give Loki 4+ weeks of doing nothing but building forts and adding units/manpower/armaments to the Soviet army. By winter the soviet lines will be dug in and strong again and then once January hits the German morale drops and Soviet Morale increases again. By that point German offensive operations will reduce drastically and Loki should be able to renew some offesnive operations over the winter of 1942 in to 1943.

Honestly despite how depressing losing all those armies were to Loki he is still doing fine, the Germans havent even taken Rostov. Nor penetrated deep into the south stripping those manpower centers. With Lokis manpower/armaments reserves his army will quickly re-man/re-build over the winter. Yes he will have to use alot of AP to build new units but thats what all Soviet players have to do....and his Rifle Corps drop to only 10 AP in january to build.

The morale switch in 1943 is huge I did the math its something like a total 20-25% combat value shift between the two armies once units reach the new national morale levels. Which means that by summer 1943 the german infantry on average is alot weaker and soviet infantry alot stronger. 5 points doesnt sound like alot but when it comes to CV stats its a big modification to you final CV on all your units. So when one side loses 5 and the other gains 5 its a roughly 20% give or take shift in total combat strength....thats a pretty massive shift and why the Germans have to shift to mostly defensive operations in 1943 especially as Soviet units gain even more morale from wins and get experience levels increased.

Basically in 1.08.04 when they dropped the soviets 5 NM in 1942 it dropped the CV of Soviet units on average around 10% when you look at difference in CV between units with a 5 point morale/experience difference. So by the start of 1943 and going forward your looking at soviet units that 20% stronger than 1942 and german units about 10% weaker....so between the start of summer 1942 and end of winter months in 1943 its a total shift of almost 30% more combat power to the Soviets benefit.

Which is honestly pretty realistic as by the end of the winter of 1942 the Soviet army had learned alot about conducting operations and fighting modern war, and especially how german operating proceedures worked. Were they still equal man for man in combat power no...but they had twice as many men.

[Peltonx]

Nice to see you back.

Just hang on and counter attack every place you can even if odds are not that great-grind away.

He will probably have enough strength to launch an offensive come snow but should run out of steam by Jan.

Keep up the good fight!!!!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

Oh dear, Moskva threatened in 1942? I wouldn't have thought that possible just 4 months ago! Hopefully the weather will come to your rescue as soon as possible. Let's pray for some mud...

ah thats where random weather makes things interesting ... we are a few turns ahead and its been ahem *variable* so far.

Also I'm worried about what happens when the rivers freeze, he's already forced the Oka in a clear weather turn and still has all 8 Pzr Corps at Moscow.

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Mud hits soon, Moscow wont fall.

This will give Loki 4+ weeks of doing nothing but building forts and adding units/manpower/armaments to the Soviet army. By winter the soviet lines will be dug in and strong again and then once January hits the German morale drops and Soviet Morale increases again. By that point German offensive operations will reduce drastically and Loki should be able to renew some offesnive operations over the winter of 1942 in to 1943.

Honestly despite how depressing losing all those armies were to Loki he is still doing fine, the Germans havent even taken Rostov. Nor penetrated deep into the south stripping those manpower centers. With Lokis manpower/armaments reserves his army will quickly re-man/re-build over the winter. Yes he will have to use alot of AP to build new units but thats what all Soviet players have to do....and his Rifle Corps drop to only 10 AP in january to build.

The morale switch in 1943 is huge I did the math its something like a total 20-25% combat value shift between the two armies once units reach the new national morale levels. Which means that by summer 1943 the german infantry on average is alot weaker and soviet infantry alot stronger. 5 points doesnt sound like alot but when it comes to CV stats its a big modification to you final CV on all your units. So when one side loses 5 and the other gains 5 its a roughly 20% give or take shift in total combat strength....thats a pretty massive shift and why the Germans have to shift to mostly defensive operations in 1943 especially as Soviet units gain even more morale from wins and get experience levels increased.

Basically in 1.08.04 when they dropped the soviets 5 NM in 1942 it dropped the CV of Soviet units on average around 10% when you look at difference in CV between units with a 5 point morale/experience difference. So by the start of 1943 and going forward your looking at soviet units that 20% stronger than 1942 and german units about 10% weaker....so between the start of summer 1942 and end of winter months in 1943 its a total shift of almost 30% more combat power to the Soviets benefit.

Which is honestly pretty realistic as by the end of the winter of 1942 the Soviet army had learned alot about conducting operations and fighting modern war, and especially how german operating proceedures worked. Were they still equal man for man in combat power no...but they had twice as many men.

as above, we're on random weather ... odd things do happen and he has 8 Pzr Corps plus all his best infantry there so with frozen rivers he has a decent chance before the Jan 43 NM starts to have an effect

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Nice to see you back.

Just hang on and counter attack every place you can even if odds are not that great-grind away.

He will probably have enough strength to launch an offensive come snow but should run out of steam by Jan.

Keep up the good fight!!!!

aye, as in the next post, I'm starting to do some attacks simply to kill. Given I have 1.1m in my off map manpower pool I can afford to trade off actual losses at unfavourable rates ... my only concern is losing more complete combat formations.

[loki100]

Turn 69: 8 -15 October 1942

The Germans maintained their pressure at Moscow, both sealing off the formations trapped near Kaluga and, again, encircling 54 Army trapped around Borodino.


(as usual this is the position when I open the turn)

Stavka continued to reward those armoured formations that had won victories and renamed the South-Eastern Front to reflect its position on the Soviet defensive lines.



Facing a crisis at Moscow, and desperate to slow the Germans, Stavka ordered two major offensives at opposite ends of the front.

Moscow

At Moscow, 22 Army again tried to reach the units trapped around Borodino. The opening blow was held, but a renewal of the attack on 12 October forced the German infantry to fall back.



Elements of the reconstituted 2nd Shock Army then tried to break into the pocket but the German 208 Infantry division managed to hold off two successive attacks.



In frustration, Stavka ordered the commitment of the final mobile reserve at Moscow. Even as the exhausted formations of 2 Shock pulled back, and the Germans perhaps relaxed, the armour of 3 Tank Army hit their defences.



This time the 208th buckled and Soviet units were able to link up.

To distract the Germans, 24 Army supported these operations by attacking elements of 24 Panzer Corps. However, the German armour was well deployed defensive and the Soviet offensive quickly lost momentum.



In an attempt to place the German flanks under pressure, 4 Army counter attacked near Kaluga. Here there was no real hope of reaching the trapped formations but there was a chance to damage some over-extended German motorised divisions.



and, to the south of the Oka, Bryansk Front's 28 Army forced 2 Panzer Division to fall back as Soviet units redeployed on the Tula-Ryazan axis.


(Cavalry of 4 Army preparing for action)



The South

In the Crimea, the Soviets again tried to protect Sevastopol from the endless bombing by a series of naval landings. The attempt at Feodosiya failed but again the main rail lines to the Crimea were cut.



However, at Rostov, the Soviet armour struck at the exposed German allied formations. Unable to cope with the Soviet tanks, the Hungarians were quickly forced back and then all semblance of an organised retreat ended



To the north, the cavalry of 37 Army forced back the Romanians leaving the German infantry divisions exposed and partly encircled by the fast advancing Soviet tanks.

In an attempt to disrupt any German response, the VVS launched a series of massive raids in an attempt to destroy the Luftwaffe on the ground and limit its capacity to intervene.




(Soviet marines at Mariupol)

OOB



Losses continued to be high. The Germans lost 27,000 men (7,000 killed), 135 tanks and 100 planes. Soviet losses were 43,000 men (23,000 killed), 315 tanks and 365 planes.

[M60A3TTS]

I'm not sure why you have 500 aircraft supporting the Leningrad Front. You aren't reporting on any action there, so if it is quiet, I'd transfer the lot to the defense of Moscow.

You are now getting the 42c Rifle Corps and that is a substantial improvement from the 42b formation. You'll get the Southwestern Front in a couple turns, so you can get a lot of rifle brigades going with that. You may even be able to squeeze in more guards rifle corps with supporting sappers naturally and stack a pair of divisions on a hex. That should give you a reasonable defense.

@ Chaos: He isn't going to get much forting done in mud and snow. The engineering values are reduced in non-clear weather conditions.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I'm not sure why you have 500 aircraft supporting the Leningrad Front. You aren't reporting on any action there, so if it is quiet, I'd transfer the lot to the defense of Moscow.

You are now getting the 42c Rifle Corps and that is a substantial improvement from the 42b formation. You'll get the Southwestern Front in a couple turns, so you can get a lot of rifle brigades going with that. You may even be able to squeeze in more guards rifle corps with supporting sappers naturally and stack a pair of divisions on a hex. That should give you a reasonable defense.

@ Chaos: He isn't going to get much forting done in mud and snow. The engineering values are reduced in non-clear weather conditions.

agree about the admin pts with SW Front, originally I was going to bank those for the 1943 corps conversion but in the current situation they need to go on raising the core of fresh formations so I can get manpower out of the pool and onto the map.

Len Front airpower is almost all U2s. Attriting the Finns to death as I am taking out 200-500 men per turn and I think that is more than they get in replacements. I'm also every now and then launching infantry attacks, again it keeps them a bit weaker for when I can spare units and time to remind them who is in charge [8D]

[gingerbread]

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh its grim, vigabrand is eating up the equivalent of an army every other turn, so I can't even raise fresh formations fast enough to replace my losses ... I have the manpower (off map), but not the on-map formations to draw it into the game.

Might I request some formation count data? I'm mostly interested in the infantry, but you can add the chrome (OK, steel) & cav if you want to. RD equivalents (XXX=3, X=½) would be a useful measure stick. As far back as you regard it worth the effort.

You do provide a most excellent set of data already, but since formation numbers has popped up as a vital point, it would be nice to see it.

Did you fall for the temptation to discontinue RB builds due to that you were doing well?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

ORIGINAL: loki100

oh its grim, vigabrand is eating up the equivalent of an army every other turn, so I can't even raise fresh formations fast enough to replace my losses ... I have the manpower (off map), but not the on-map formations to draw it into the game.

Might I request some formation count data? I'm mostly interested in the infantry, but you can add the chrome (OK, steel) & cav if you want to. RD equivalents (XXX=3, X=½) would be a useful measure stick. As far back as you regard it worth the effort.

You do provide a most excellent set of data already, but since formation numbers has popped up as a vital point, it would be nice to see it.

Did you fall for the temptation to discontinue RB builds due to that you were doing well?

will do, the next post is a natural place to wrap up the summmer battles with a large map and some numbers etc, so I'll slot it into there.

Yes, and I'm suffering for it now [;)]. At the start of the summer it was easy to grab a set of brigades, form them up, let them have a turn on refit >10 hexes to the rear and ... a ready made 3 cv, mixed experience, 50 morale rifle division. Now its not just that my ability to produce new units has fallen behind my losses, but also its taking 8-10 turns to get them to combat ready ... some I'm just chucking in but with low experience and the late 42 rifle division OOB, its back to using 1 cv ants.

So, don't stop the production line of replacement shells till you are really sure the German player has stopped eating your army.

[STEF78]

As usual, the strength of 1942's german offensive in front of Moscow is impressive and the loss of several units every turn a harsh blow!


Hold on Loki! Ennemy is at the gates!

[Matnjord]

This is looking more and more like the end of Fall Blau with Moscow instead of Stalingrad as the target. Sadly there seems to be no weakly held flank to breakthrough and encircle [:(] Also replace the 6th army with an entire army group worth of tanks and the Italians with elite German rifle divisions...

I'll wait for the end of the summer battles to ask some questions. Make sure there is Stavka left to answer Loki! Hold fast!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: STEF78

As usual, the strength of 1942's german offensive in front of Moscow is impressive and the loss of several units every turn a harsh blow!


Hold on Loki! Ennemy is at the gates!

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

This is looking more and more like the end of Fall Blau with Moscow instead of Stalingrad as the target. Sadly there seems to be no weakly held flank to breakthrough and encircle [:(] Also replace the 6th army with an entire army group worth of tanks and the Italians with elite German rifle divisions...

I'll wait for the end of the summer battles to ask some questions. Make sure there is Stavka left to answer Loki! Hold fast!

depends if Vigabrand wants to go for an outright win (but run the risk of being snagged up in a mass of rifle corps and poor terrain) or carry on taking out army sized pockets.

I would be much happier if I could see a nice long open flank with no meaningful reserves behind it ... ahem.

Now for some reason all/most of my images have disappeared. As I'm away from home (in fact out on the western edge of Europe), I can't chase it up but I can't see any images using either firefox or chrome. So while I have an update ready, as a sort of overview of the summer not sure its worth posting. But for now, here's a simple spreadsheet showing how badly the 1942 fighting has hit my army:

[gingerbread]

Wow! That's bad!

The map pictures and loss numbers have told some of this, but these numbers tell it from another aspect, -150 RD. I assume this is net numbers so the RB builds during this period are hidden in the total. AP for half a year.

I admit you were the one telling us not to underestimate vigabrand, and you were right. [;)]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Wow! That's bad!

The map pictures and loss numbers have told some of this, but these numbers tell it from another aspect, -150 RD. I assume this is net numbers so the RB builds during this period are hidden in the total. AP for half a year.

I admit you were the one telling us not to underestimate vigabrand, and you were right. [;)]

its a very telling way of presenting the information. Gross losses will be worse, lets say I've received about 800 admin pts over the period, say 20% has gone on formation management, 20% on raising cavalry/mech formations, so about 50% will have gone into raising new rifle formations ~ 80 brigades/40 divisions.

I managed to waste 100 admin pts when I first assigned extra AA to Sevastopol and then decided to move it when it seemed to be making no difference. Since I've never before removed city AA, and in any case these were SUs I'd added not the at-start resource, I forgot about the horrific Admin pt penalty.

since images seem to have re-appeared [&:] ...

[loki100]

T70: 15-21 October 1942

Mid October saw the first blast of winter. Around Moscow, cold air from Siberia brought blizzard conditions but the rest of the front was hit by heavy rain.



At Moscow the result was localised fighting as the Germans destroyed the units trapped at Kaluga and sealed off the Borodino pocket. In turn, Soviet forces made limited gains in an attempt to deepen the Moscow defensive lines.



However, if the intensity of ground operations slowed, the Soviets intensified the airwar. With new fighters now available, Stavka was determined to take the campaign to the Luftwaffe.



Have added the Soviet OOB at the army level. Main thing to note is how battered some formations are. Depending on the number of support units, I'd expect a typical army to have around 115,000 men (9 rifle divisions ~ 100,000), especially in Volkhov, Western, Stalingrad, Crimean and Trans-Caucasus Fronts most units are badly under-strength. Also 4 armies (assigned to Urals/Volga MD) are effectively empty shells.



Shows key changes to the overall OOB. So after a summer of constant battles the Germans have 100,000 more men than at the start, no real changes to any of their allies and I've lost a net 1.8m.

In terms of resources, I have a massive off map manpower reserve, masses of armament points. Truck situation is fine.

Overall the Axis side has lost 460,000 men (and had 110,000 return). So that means they have gained around 450,000 men (gross) in a period when historically Germany had run out of significant manpower reserves.

They've also lost 3,300 AFVs with no apparent harm to the combat effectiveness of the Panzer divisions (and haven't been able to replace all their losses).

In the air they have lost 2,000 planes for 6,300 of mine. More recently the loss ratio has become 2.2:1 as I finally start to be able to deploy better aircraft.

[Peltonx]

Its because no Stalingrad.

As I constantly say WitE is not a movie or a book.

No German player is going to throw away 350,000 men.

Brian vs TDV loses are higher then historical so its possible to get historical losses, less then historical and higher then historical.

[Bozo_the_Clown]

Overall the Axis side has lost 460,000 men (and had 110,000 return). So that means they have gained around 450,000 men (gross) in a period when historically Germany had run out of significant manpower reserves.

Loki, I think the Axis numbers have always been inflated in this game. Walloc has pointed this out many times. The numbers in WitE are way off the historical numbers:

On 1 July 1942 German forces in the East were 2.635.000 plus 150.000 in Finland and 212.000 in rear occupied areas of Eastern Europe.Total 2.997.000.

On 1 July 1943 German forces in the East were 3.138.000(Waffen SS and ground combat units of the Luftwaffe are included) plus 80.000 on Finnish front.Total 3.218.000.

The patches, mild blizzard and Attack+1 gone have only increased the problem. In your game the Germans have 4.2 mio on July 1st. What can you say about that?

[chaos45]

Bozo- I dont think its quite that simple...........

I do believe that the German Army is much larger than historical. Even before Stalingrad so the no Stalingrad arguement isnt valid. The entire reason Stalingrad happened was the German Army was very weak/reduced in manpower before the Soviets even attempted the encirclement- something we are not seeing in the game at all.

Now so far me and Peltons game is fairly balanced and has been a tense and IMO a well played match so the game is maybe close to being balanced?? just have to see if the Germans remain to strong or weak 43-45. Again though he still has a way stronger German army than historical despite bitter fighting and counterattacks by my soviet forces.

The issue I have with the game numbers and historical numbers- the game total manpower includes all Airbase, HQ, and in general rear area troops. Im not sure all of the historical totals include some of these manpower sources. Even with the extra men included such as Airbase manpower which Im fairly certain wasnt in the historical numbers you still see a German army probably inflated 500k+ or more over historical levels tho.

As I think all the Luftwaffe HQs = several hundred thousand men...now the massive issue here is the german player can just disband all those luftwaffe HQs and suddenly generate about 2 entire extra armies of trained combat infantrymen over a couple weeks if they want to.......something the German army historical could not.

The main reason you see this IMO is as has been beat to death like a hundred times now........combat losses are to low for both sides. Moraeval has said in the next patch combat losses should increase some for both sides so that should help keep both armies from maintaining 90%+ ToEs.

[morvael]

My extensive tests done for 1.08.05 have shown that armies are indeed stronger in 1.08.00-04 because of repairs after movement. I have slightly reduced the effectiveness of these, while at the same time increased the losses from combat (thanks to reworked "too many attackers penalty"), in order to get closer to 1.07.xx-level totals. Because of the smaller airbases and 41a Rifle Divisions it wasn't possible to get above 100% for 1941, because otherwise the losses for later years were way too high. So comparing to 1.07.xx you can expect less disabled in 1.08.05 but more killed and overall losses will be bigger later in the war (when the fort levels are high). Some German manpower was also rescheduled from 1941 to 1943. Will the current level be enough to force operational pauses just because of mounting losses? Only time will tell. A sample from what I got in AIvsAI games for the first 10 turns of each campaign scenario:

1941GC: German level of losses in 1.08.04 compared to 1.07.15: 80%, Soviet: 87% (killed 80% and 144%). In 1.08.05: 95% and 94% (killed 134% and 189%)
1942GC: 60% and 104% (killed 65% and 180%) vs 82% and 130% (killed 100% and 234%)
StoB: 142% and 102% (killed 210% and 185%) vs 154% and 128% (killed 270% and 221%)
1943GC: killed 93% and 214% vs 152% and 258% (disabled are negative in this scenario, so can't calculate totals)
1944GC: 107% and 101% (killed 77% and 180%) vs 95% and 149% (killed 127% and 284%)
VtoB: 46% and 76% (killed 53% and 94%) vs 118% and 136% (killed 166% and 174%)

Bear in mind I should have done more 1.07.15 tests to have average numbers, but I did only one. For 1.08.05 I did more tests, especially in the middle of development, but less at the end. So the % may vary by as much as 20-30% depending on whether the AI is able to pull of Stalingrad or not, manage to force Rumanian surrender or not etc. Some changes are also caused by different TOE and scenario fixes. Also, players do not waste manpower in headon attack as the AI does. But I would expect an increase in losses, that's for sure.