Pearl Harbour question for WitP designers (Matrix/2By3) and BETA testers...

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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Drongo
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For LMCTS

Post by Drongo »

This is getting way too involved here. Everyone needs to take a step back. Remember Colin Powell's dictate, "Never position your ego with your position, so when your position goes your ego goes with it".


Another voice of reason.

Forget it. Unfortunately, this is a "real world" public forum, egos and all.

I've been posting here since the middle of last year. When I first started, I naively thougth that threads were called threads because they followed some logical path related to the topic. Doesn't normally happen past the first dozen posts. By then someone's normally managed to step on an ego and it's on.

The good news is that no poster has ever been physically injured during the making of any virtual bunfight and that at some point, the dust settles and people can get back to business (till the next time).

So, all I can suggest is be patient and let virtual nature run it's course.

AGENDA'S RULE!!!!
Have no fear,
drink more beer.
Chiteng
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Re: For LMCTS

Post by Chiteng »

Originally posted by Drongo
Another voice of reason.

Forget it. Unfortunately, this is a "real world" public forum, egos and all.

I've been posting here since the middle of last year. When I first started, I naively thougth that threads were called threads because they followed some logical path related to the topic. Doesn't normally happen past the first dozen posts. By then someone's normally managed to step on an ego and it's on.

The good news is that no poster has ever been physically injured during the making of any virtual bunfight and that at some point, the dust settles and people can get back to business (till the next time).

So, all I can suggest is be patient and let virtual nature run it's course.

AGENDA'S RULE!!!!


There is no mechanism to avoid this phenom.
To me realism is the most important feature of a projected game.
Otherwise, whatis the point of playing?

However my view of realism, as you can see, is anathema to certain type of personalities. Not because I am wrong or they correct, but apparently because of 'expression'.

The presentation of an idea apparently is more important than the idea itself.

The actual point presented is delibretly drowned out by personalities offended by the presentation.

To present an idea, w/o resistance, requires that you jump through the hoops of the objecting personality. This is where
the fight starts. If I dont hold his 'hurdles' to be valid, then he becomes offended. BUT If I were to jump the hurdles, then that would tend to validate them. I have no desire to validate hurdles
that I dont respect.

That is why I do not normally do such things. For me to yield
unconditionaly, I need evidence that my position is either wrong,
OR that an opposing position is correct.

I see no such evidence. In fact I see a stubborn delibrete obtuseness, in defence of METHOD over idea.
To me such pendatic reasoning is tiresome, especially when it contradicts known events.

From one perspective, my opinion is only validated if I show a superior weight of statistical information? That is absurd.
Statistics show whatever the user WANTS them to show.

To me the evidence of an actual event outweighs 'theory', it is called empiricism.

Mdeihl gains far more in my view by correctly stating that at
Savo island the crews were tired. That is of course TRUE.
They were tired. But fatigue CAN be added to the model.
In fact it already IS modeled in the Air units.

But quoting reams of statistics that have no actual direct bearing
is simply smoke screen for the real agenda.

If I dont respect the agenda, I surely dont respect the smoke screen.

If the only choice is either NOT promoting a point of view,
or stepping on the toes of some ego, then for me, there is no choice to make.

For me the game system MUST be able to duplicate real events,
OR we are simply playing an elaborate form of checkers.
“It is clear that the individual who persecutes a man, his brother, because he is not of the same opinion, is a monster.”

Voltaire

'For those with faith, no proof is needed. For those without faith, no proof is enough'

French Priest

"Statistic
TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by mdiehl
Possibly that is one of the reasons why in the majority of engagements, when the IJn vessels launched torpedoes, they achieved no hits.


Actually out of 16 surface engagements in 1942-1943, that the IJN launched torpedos they achieved hits in 12 of them, while achieving no hits in just 4. I would say that would be a majority.
mdiehl
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Post by mdiehl »

I'd say that "the majority of engagements" did not come with your qualifier "in 1942-1943" -- a transparent switch. But I'd have to back and double check the numbers to find out whether your 1942-1943 claim is accurate. Were it true, the detailed examination of why hits were scored in 1942-1943 rather than in later engagements might be instructive. It might lead to the recognition of those contingent circumstances of which I usually speak, rather than attributing the late war inability of the Japanese to, for example, a sudden outbreak of incompetence (or whatever the opposite of 'superior night fighting' is supposed to be).
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
norsemanjs
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Repairing Facility Damage

Post by norsemanjs »

Awhile back I saw a discussion about damage to oil tank farms and there seemed to be a consensus of opinion that oil tank farms can be erected in a matter of days or at most a couple of weeks, almost anywhere in the world.

I have managed the construction of tank farms and I am afraid there is a bit more involved than many people may think.


1. Suitable stable ground is necessary, if the ground is not very stable it must be excavated and back filled.

2. Foundations must be built. Often a concrete ring wall with sand inside of the ring. The concrete foundation must cure properly before steel erection can begin.

3. Steel needs to be rolled to the proper specifications. Steel needs to be available and I don't think there were many places in Hawaii or other places throughout the pacific where steel was milled. It would likely take many weeks for steel to be delivered to the places where it was needed.

4. Pump houses, and a great deal of piping is required for transfering various fuel to ships, trucks, rail etc.

5. Containment for spills, required by EPA now days could be left until it was convenient in war time.

I think that if material and manpower is readily available a decent size tank farm could be constructed within 3 months.

Salvage and repair of tank farms is really variable. If there has been a lot of fire, the steel can be badly warped, stressed and may be unuseable. The site has to be cleaned up pretty well before men can get into the area to start repiping and repairing tanks. It can also take a considerable time just to extinguish fires if there are large amounts of fuel.

Also the discussion regarding cranes, cranes are incredibly sensitive. Even the slightest damage to a cranes boom will require repair. Of course I realize that todays safety rules and concerns are probably a lot different than 60 years ago they are still based on real potential issues. And crane safety requirements are significant.

The issue of rail tracks is also pretty variable. To replace a couple of sections of track on a typical rail line takes a couple of hours. However if the track is imbedded in concrete along a pier or on the siding of a dry dock, this would require a great deal more work. The damaged rail would have to be busted out of the concrete, and the rail replaced, clips are used to hold the rail in place and keep it from sliding in the direction of force from the train. The concrete need to be repoured for these rails and allowed to cure before rail traffic can recommence.

I also think that the possibility of damaging the doors on a drydock is very possible. The concussion of bombs dropped in the vicinity of the door mechanisms could put them out of alignment and even a slight misalignment on something that big can cause significant problems in repairing. One of the problems with equipment like that is that spare parts are not usually readily available. Fortunately at Pear therewere large machine shops available, what volume of workload they can handle is another issue of course, I expect they will be swamped with work.

Questions or comments are always welcome.
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madflava13
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Post by madflava13 »

Norseman-
An interesting post. I wonder if anyone knows how much fuel oil was stored at Pearl? Obviously losing the tanks for a minimum of 3 months would force the fleet back to the West Coast...

Just to piggy back on your post a bit though - my dad used to work at Getty Oil in Delaware. There was a barge full of Av Gas that blew up near the refinery (not one of Getty's, but someone else's barge) - it burned for 3 straight days without the local authorities putting a dent in the blaze. Finally they called in Getty's fire dept. with all their special equipment - the fire was out within hours after they arrived on scene. What's my point? This was in the early 80s, when technology was much more advanced - if those tanks at Pearl were burning, what type of equipment was on hand to fight them? Would they even be able to put it out, or would they have to let them just burn?
"The Paraguayan Air Force's request for spraying subsidies was not as Paraguayan as it were..."
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mogami
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Fuel oil at Pearl

Post by mogami »

Hi, On Dec 7th 1941 there were 4.5 million barrels of fuel at PH (I'm guessing a barrel is 55 gallons?)

So far in WITP there are 300k fuel points. (I think this means 1 fuel point is equal to 825 gallons)
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norsemanjs
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Oil Fires

Post by norsemanjs »

There is no doubt that some specialized training and equipment is necessary to put out a fire of the size to be expected after a heavy air strike on an oil tank farm. The Navy and other armed forces (as well as many oil companies) certainly spend plenty of time training to deal with this. What I really wonder is with widespread damage throughout Pearl the response will be delayed.

The number one priority will be to preserve and protect life. Most of the emergency response people will be trying to help the people trapped and caught up in the probable disaster on battleship row. So it may indeed take days to have the fires under control and many more to get the sites cleaned up.

Anyone know if different grades of fuel were stored in the same tank farm (separate tanks of course). For example aviation fuel, diesel, gasoline, heavy bunker fuels. If the types are intermixed as I expect is possible the potential danger and damage of an attack on the tank farms is certainly increased.
TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by mdiehl
I'd say that "the majority of engagements" did not come with your qualifier "in 1942-1943" -- a transparent switch. But I'd have to back and double check the numbers to find out whether your 1942-1943 claim is accurate. Were it true, the detailed examination of why hits were scored in 1942-1943 rather than in later engagements might be instructive. It might lead to the recognition of those contingent circumstances of which I usually speak, rather than attributing the late war inability of the Japanese to, for example, a sudden outbreak of incompetence (or whatever the opposite of 'superior night fighting' is supposed to be).


Actually no switch intended.?@I thought that was the time frame that we were discussing. I dont think any one here has said that the IJN maintain superiorty or even parity as late as 1944. Besides I believe your statement was refering to the earlier model torps that some IJN ships were still useing in 42.

In any case. I can only recall 2 surface engagements in 44. Samar and Suraigo. Samar was a daylight action ( I thought we were discussing night actions) but add that in anyway. Suriago the only torps fired was from the follow on force. They simply fired off a blind salvo to cover their retirment. No target was sited they simply ran when they saw the burning hulks of the Yamishiro and Fuso. IMO I do not feel that this particular incident fits within the paremeters of the discussion, but again,since I am sure you would disagree, add that in anyway. Thats 12 vs 6, I still call that a majority.

I think the downgrading of the IJN ability is two fold. One being operational, material, human attrition ( particularly in NCOs). Two the ever increasing ability of the USN. Particularly in the proficient use of radar, made it impossible for the IJN to acheive surprise or even to get within effective torp range before highly accurate radar controll gunnery had taken its toll. Not to mention the aggregate advantages of two years of night combat experience.

Again believe all anyone has ever said is that the IJN had a early advantage, I do not think anyone has ever said they maintained it. IMO by mid 43 the USN had acheived parity and by the end of that year had acheived superiorty.
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Post by Aussie »

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I can't think of a mechanism for abstracting "strategic surprise" in a face-to-face boardgame.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know of one - pressing the red "fire' button on the console during the (strategic) game of 'Computer Battleship' and scoring a hit first turn. It certainly used to come as a surprise... :D
Drongo
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Post by Drongo »

Posted by TIMJOT
In any case. I can only recall 2 surface engagements in 44. Samar and Suraigo.


I think that "The Battle of Ormoc Bay" (early Dec '44) might be given some consideration as well (similar to Balikpapan). The US Navy certainly classes it as a clash between naval forces.

It involved 3 Sumner Class DDs raiding into Ormoc Bay at night. While there, they (apparently) engaged and were engaged by everything from IJN shore batteries, night fighters and docked subs to a small transport convoy escorted by 2 Matsu Class DEs.

During the surface clash, the USN claimed the sinking of a DE and a Destroyer Transport (+ misc small vessels) for the loss of DD Cooper, cut in half by a what was presumed to be a Long Lance. Both the surviving USN DDs were shot up to some degree. The USN considered it one of the "hottest" engagements fought during WWII.

I haven't seen any reports concerning the use of torpedos by the USN, all their accounts indicate that they fought the battle while facing toward the enemy as often as possible, rather than side on. This was an attempt to make full use of the battery layout of the Sumner Class (4 of 6 5" guns in bow positions) while keeping the smallest profile toward the enemy.
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Thanks Drongo, I stand corrected. The score is now 13 vs. 6
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mogami
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No USA DOW

Post by mogami »

Hi, Well so far one clear result of no PH strike is Force "Z" is doomed if it tries to stop 25th Army landing. (I send 4 IJN CV to cover these and clobber any RN TF that tries to interfer)
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Yeah, I think Force Z might be better off withdrawing to Java and join up with the Dutch. I dont think it can make much a difference against the landings anyway. They would have to come well within Nell/Betty range in north Malaya regardless the absence or presence of IJN CVs and you got Kondo's 2 BB, multi CA/DD covering force. I wonder how the PoW and Repulse would have done againt the 2 Kongos. A pretty even match if you ask me. 16-14" vs 10-14" and 8-15". but Brit BCs had a nasty rep for blowing up and its speed advantage would be nullified by need to stick to PoW.
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mogami
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BB

Post by mogami »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
Yeah, I think Force Z might be better off withdrawing to Java and join up with the Dutch. I dont think it can make much a difference against the landings anyway. They would have to come well within Nell/Betty range in north Malaya regardless the absence or presence of IJN CVs and you got Kondo's 2 BB, multi CA/DD covering force. I wonder how the PoW and Repulse would have done againt the 2 Kongos. A pretty even match if you ask me. 16-14" vs 10-14" and 8-15". but Brit BCs had a nasty rep for blowing up and its speed advantage would be nullified by need to stick to PoW.


Hi, I didn't use the Kongos. I want to save the fast BB for later.
There are two landing areas each is covered by a TF with containing 3 BB (each TF has a BB of each class except the Kongo)
The Kongos are deployed in the South Pacific area.
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Hi

Again, I think Force Z would be doomed if it tried to attack the landings areas regardless of PH or No PH. They would be in range of the Betty's and Nells and you got 6 BBs covering the landings. How does not attacking PH make them anymore doomed? You certainly dont need your CV's to deal with it. Now if you had the Indomitable, Force Z might have a chance and then I could see a need for some IJN CVs

Just curious what are your reasons for mixing the BB classes? Are you not relegating the two TF's to the speed of the Fuso's by doing so?

Great to hear you are continueing the test.
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mogami
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LBA

Post by mogami »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
Hi

Again, I think Force Z would be doomed if it tried to attack the landings areas regardless of PH or No PH. They would be in range of the Betty's and Nells and you got 6 BBs covering the landings. How does not attacking PH make them anymore doomed? You certainly dont need your CV's to deal with it. Now if you had the Indomitable, Force Z might have a chance and then I could see a need for some IJN CVs

Just curious what are your reasons for mixing the BB classes? Are you not relegating the two TF's to the speed of the Fuso's by doing so?

Great to hear you are continueing the test.


Hi, It means my LBA do not need to be set to Naval Attack. They can be used to hit the enemy airfields.

BB speed does not matter. They are escorting transports and homeported in Saigon (less then 10 hexes away)
Mutsu and Nagato have 16in guns the other 4 have 14 in
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TIMJOT
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Re: LBA

Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, It means my LBA do not need to be set to Naval Attack. They can be used to hit the enemy airfields.

BB speed does not matter. They are escorting transports and homeported in Saigon (less then 10 hexes away)
Mutsu and Nagato have 16in guns the other 4 have 14 in


To each his own. Personally I find ( in UV that is ) that Nells are much better ship killers early on ( pre-allied AA upgrades ) than airfield surpressers. In any case, you should have plenty of IJA bombers within range of the north malay airfields to keep them busy. Besides do you find that the handful of Blenhiems and Hudsons pose much a danger to your TFs ?

Since I would be attempting to secure the NEI simutaneously with Malaya. I think a better use of the IJN carries might be to send them south to the NEI, which is out of range of LBA. Just MHO but I think secureing the NEI much quicker than historical would be critical in this scenerio.

Please keep us informed of the progress of your test as much as you can. Thanks
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Nikademus
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Re: Re: LBA

Post by Nikademus »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
To each his own. Personally I find ( in UV that is ) that Nells are much better ship killers early on ( pre-allied AA upgrades ) than airfield surpressers. In any case, you should have plenty of IJA bombers within range of the north malay airfields to keep them busy. Besides do you find that the handful of Blenhiems and Hudsons pose much a danger to your TFs ?




Gotta agree with TIMJOT here. For me, its the same equation as with the real life example, i.e. whats cheaper to risk.....a few easier to replace aircraft or a couple of expensive and hard to replace capital ships, regardless of the stat rankings. Even if the IJN force "wins", if the BB's get banged up in the process, they will be unavailable for some time which might impact future operations.

So i'd definately keep the Nell squadrons on naval attack and hope that they can at least soften up Force Z before any contact with IJN surface elements.

Ironically....in one test.....a great result was achieved via the as yet unmentioned submarines. An I-boat managed to cripple Prince of Wales with three torp hits after it passed through the hex it was sitting in.

That ended Force Z's sortie right there and then, all without a single lost IJN asset :)
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Bulldog61
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Post by Bulldog61 »

Originally posted by TIMJOT
Hi

Again, I think Force Z would be doomed if it tried to attack the landings areas regardless of PH or No PH. They would be in range of the Betty's and Nells and you got 6 BBs covering the landings. How does not attacking PH make them anymore doomed? You certainly dont need your CV's to deal with it. Now if you had the Indomitable, Force Z might have a chance and then I could see a need for some IJN CVs

Just curious what are your reasons for mixing the BB classes? Are you not relegating the two TF's to the speed of the Fuso's by doing so?

Great to hear you are continueing the test.


In two test now I've had Force Z get through to the transports before being sunk by a swarm of A/C, it really slows down the Malaysia campaign.
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