Syria Civil War II

[operating]

This might sound crazy: A war game that depends on the day to day events of an actual war, such as the Syrian Civil War (Capt. Harlock got me to thinking about this). I'm trying to get my head around it, or if it is even possible to accomplish. It certainly would be different. Just kicking around a story line, or angles to approach a game on the ME.

Can imagine what the Diplomatic window would look like in a normally developed ME game of current events, "talk about being complex!", in a way I think it would be half the fun...

[Jagdtiger14]

Ranger33: Why would it have to be a quagmire for Russia? Those countries have large Russian populations. As for Turkey, Russia could come on the side of the Kurds to establish a Kurdish home nation. Notice the unrest in Turkey.

Who would make it a quagmire?...the native non-Russian populations? The US? Any other NATO or non-NATO nation(s)?

[Matt R]

ORIGINAL: aaatoysandmore

any else checkout infowars.com?

Please don't. Not if you value your sanity.

[operating]

As for Turkey, Russia could come on the side of the Kurds to establish a Kurdish home nation

That is one heck of a theory you got there![:)] I don't think it would be as simple as you put it, none-the-less something to think about..

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: operating

This might sound crazy: A war game that depends on the day to day events of an actual war, such as the Syrian Civil War (Capt. Harlock got me to thinking about this). I'm trying to get my head around it, or if it is even possible to accomplish. It certainly would be different. Just kicking around a story line, or angles to approach a game on the ME.

Can imagine what the Diplomatic window would look like in a normally developed ME game of current events, "talk about being complex!", in a way I think it would be half the fun...

It's kind of been done before, operating. The Call of Duty: Modern Warfare franchise is built on this premise. Same with the Operation: Flashpoint series that used the political landscape of the time to build on these themes. But if you're making an argument for an interesting geopolitical + strategy game, that would also be interesting. I think the diplomatic / scheming / political maneuvering aspect of the game would be difficult to hard code. Witness the somewhat ham-fisted diplomacy efforts in some of the best selling "strategy 3X" games out there.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Ranger33: Why would it have to be a quagmire for Russia? Those countries have large Russian populations. As for Turkey, Russia could come on the side of the Kurds to establish a Kurdish home nation. Notice the unrest in Turkey.

Who would make it a quagmire?...the native non-Russian populations? The US? Any other NATO or non-NATO nation(s)?

What could make the Syrian conflict a quagmire for the Russians? Easy. The broad international body of sympathetic sunni arabs could redouble their efforts against the new Syrian occupiers. The Gulf States' petrodollars-previously perturbed about Assad's horrific actions against the sunni muslim Syrian population can now be aghast and righteously horrified and angered that the Russians are now involved. Not only are the Russians killing Syrian sunni muslim civilians, but they are also propping up Assad who has made the battle lines very clear and very sectarian.

So, the Russians will be relying on an amphibious operation to supply their expanding troop population in Syria. Unlike the "Stans", Georgia and Ukraine, they will not have unfettered land access to their neighbors. Russia doesn't do this sort of thing very well-at least they've not had much experience with it in the past 100 years.

While they're still trying to consolidate their gains in Crimea and E. Ukraine, they're engaging in another medium-sized war that promises to suck as much into the vortex as Russia wants to allow in. Their economy is in shambles and not likely to improve much for another two years or so. They haven't publicly had to deal with the public humiliation of ISIS capturing and brutally executing their fighters. They are over-reliant on questionable allies (the SA has been decimated in four years of fighting) and they are headstrong about techniques that may work on forcing the Fulda gap or subverting Georgia / Crimea / E. Ukraine, but will have little value in the Middle East.

You think Turkey will stand idly by while the FSA gets slaughtered and Russian airplanes overfly its airspace with impunity? If a handful of FSA TOW ATGMs can ruin a Syrian Army armored battalion in a day, think what Turkey could do to stop Russian reinforcements if it *really* wanted to do so.

Russia wants to acknowledge a new Turkish homeland for the Kurds? Does Russia have enough troops on hand to stem a full-throated Turkish armored offensive to capture that airfield and port facility? Because that's what a populist avowed islamist neighbor might just do. A handful of Chinese military advisors, handful of Russian troops and measly local defensive forces wouldn't stand a chance.

[Chickenboy]

If we really wanted to get twisted and byzantine, a punitive Turkish offensive would actually give NATO a breather. The defense organization only is required to come to the aid of fellow countries that are on the defensive or attacked by non-treaty belligerents. Apart from condemning the attack in the UN, putting on our "angry trousers" and wagging our finger (very sternly [:-] mind you!), we wouldn't be required to do a thing about it by our treaty obligations.

A Turkish offensive that deposed Assad, stopped the genocidal attacks on the Syrian sunni population, bloodied the nose of the Russian adventurists and sent China "back to its side of the globe" could be welcomed by many in the region.

[operating]

Here's a news story that just hit the web: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-wh ... aq-2015-10

[Capt. Harlock]

Russia wants to acknowledge a new Turkish homeland for the Kurds? Does Russia have enough troops on hand to stem a full-throated Turkish armored offensive to capture that airfield and port facility? Because that's what a populist avowed islamist neighbor might just do. A handful of Chinese military advisors, handful of Russian troops and measly local defensive forces wouldn't stand a chance.

That could get very messy, very fast. Russia does not have a direct border with Turkey, but it would not be difficult to land an amphibious force on Turkey's Black Sea coast. (Russia might even decide to go through the relatively short distance from their vassal state in Georgia.) And that would invoke NATO's protection clause. All in all, I think Russia will be wise enough not to recognize a Kurdish homeland.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
it would not be difficult to land an amphibious force on Turkey's Black Sea coast. (Russia might even decide to go through the relatively short distance from their vassal state in Georgia.) And that would invoke NATO's protection clause. All in all, I think Russia will be wise enough not to recognize a Kurdish homeland.

Force the Dardanelles? What could go wrong? [;)]

I don't think the Russians have the military experience with amphibious landings to assume a successful amphibious landing on Turkey's Black Sea coast. It would take them months to spool up such a force and it would very likely result in failure. It would be very difficult for them to do it spontaneously, without detection in the build up. Also, Turkey has a pretty functional navy. Certainly capable enough to fend off the Soviet...erm...Russian Black Sea fleet.

Unpracticed, unrehearsed, conscript-heavy, "unblooded" amphibious landings in the face of an uninhibited enemy fleet? That's got disaster written all over it.

I don't think the Georgians would think much of Russian tanks running through Tbilisi. Again. The Georgians might just "discover" a stash of 500 TOWs they didn't know they had. Maybe some Turkish military "advisors" could show them how to use them?

[operating]

Hmmm! Turkey's population 74.93 million (2013)...

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Unpracticed, unrehearsed, conscript-heavy, "unblooded" amphibious landings in the face of an uninhibited enemy fleet? That's got disaster written all over it.

warspite1

Oh I don't know. Sealion was going to be a doddle according to some. Perhaps Putin should order some Rhine river barges, a few thousand loud hailers and, what was it? Artillery ships and porcupine barges.

And as for training and practising before hand? Not needed.

They will be ashore in no time..... [:D]

A WWII Kriegsmarine Porcupine Barge.

[Jagdtiger14]

Wow Chickenboy...you way under estimate Russia. FYI: in a matter of hours Russia can turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military.

Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border.

70% of Turkey's population is Turk. 20% Kurds...many sharing the Iranian border area...going well into the interior of Anatolia.

I have no love of Putin or the Russians (love the Ukrainians and hate what's happening there), but in Syria right now, Putin has taken off his shirt to show off his new tattoo...a big S on his chest. The west is retreating. China is present and showing support for Russia. Saudi Arabia seems to have taken the lead in opposition to the Russians, and a new alliance has formed between the Kurds, Arabs, and Christians. The Kurds however have an understanding with Asshad...so I think its strictly an anti-ISIS alliance.

In the cold war years, Nixon was able to wrest China away from the USSR orbit. Today, Russia and China are back together. That's a pretty tough combo.

[Jagdtiger14]

No need to consolidate gains in Crimea, that happened quite a while ago. As for eastern Ukraine, there is now an official truce with the Ukrainian government, and Russia has moved in some heavy artillery.

Their economy is not well, but that's not going to stop them...and I don't see it crashing other than their stock market. Resources are a valuable commodity, and Russia has lots of everything.

Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment...the Russians would look at least in some way justified. The Turks need help if they can get it (doubtful...I see the same pre-WWII promises from the west), and shooting down Russian aircraft venturing into Turkish air space would even be a mistake, but at least world opinion would be with them (for what its worth...2 cents?).

Russian Army is about 500,000 including paratroopers. Add to that political correct Russian "rules of engagement" = slaughter.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Wow Chickenboy...you way under estimate Russia. FYI: in a matter of hours Russia can turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military.

Doubtful. I've no doubts that the Russians could mount a largely successful surprise attack on Turkey's infrastructure, including their electrical grid. But 'turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military'? Really? I think that's unrealistic.

An hour after the lights get turned out "in all of Turkey", the straits of Bosporus and the Dardanelles get shut down to all Russian traffic. The Russians can forget about any further movement out of the Black Sea. They can't force the Dardanelles or the Bosporus strait. That's completely insane.

So all they have would be their air bridge. Across Turkey. The country they just attacked. Yeah. Good luck with that.

Or a circuitous land route through Iran? Through Georgia? Through...where exactly...to Syria? Yeah. Good luck with that.

Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border.

I actually laughed out loud when I read this the first time.

Since when does Iran's recent love-fest with Russia (and their attendant arms sales) extend to allowing a major Russian expeditionary force to base in Iran in order to resupply Syria? Iran does share a northern border with Iraq and Turkey, but to resupply the Med. forces, they're going to cross-trek the mountains of Eastern Turkey, Iraq and / or Syria to get there? Land resupply across 300 miles of treacherous roads within interdiction distance of Turkey? Talk about a logistical shoestring!

but in Syria right now, Putin has taken off his shirt to show off his new tattoo...a big S on his chest.

The Superman myth is only suitable if one believes in the supernatural. Putin is doing a good job of driving the wedge between increasingly tentative alliances and testing the waters. But recognizing where the international sensitivities are and how to poke at them does not mean he's super man by any stretch. No more so than Kim Jong Il is a magnificent statesman because he constantly exploits the South Korean / Chinese / Japanese / American status quo on the Korean peninsula.

I'll be interested in watching this "Superman" pull off an multi-year expeditionary force without cutting off his nose to spite his face. I'll be interested in seeing how the omnipotent Russian forces deal with inevitable losses, challenges to morale, uncensored news leaking back into the Russian mainland and other threats to Putin's brand of realpolitik. Under very narrowly controlled conditions, he's done OK. But this is a much bigger challenge.

The west is retreating. China is present and showing support for Russia.

Retreating? Not hardly. Just not as vociferous in power projection in the 'near frontier' states as we once were. Where has "the West" (and who does that include, by the way?) retreated from?

But there is a growing national / international feeling of not isolation exactly-but a reluctance to engage abroad in areas that aren't our primary national interest. Strictly speaking, the United States can most 'afford' this world view. The Europeans and Saudis least.

China has an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean, true. Do you really think the Chinese will stick around if any shooting starts? Sure, I get it, they're 'flying the flag' and observing. This is akin to their recent foray to the Aleutians and transit through American territorial waters. They're reminding the world about their growing naval power and nationalism. I get it.

But the Chinese are absolutely pragmatists and focused on their own pre-eminent national interests. First, foremost and always. There is no Chinese critical national interest served by getting dragged into a shooting war over Bashar Assad's regime in Syria. None. So they won't. It doesn't 'cost them' any blood to 'observe'. But that hardly makes an ally. Putin knows this and won't / can't rely on them for anything but putting on a brave face.

Saudi Arabia seems to have taken the lead in opposition to the Russians, and a new alliance has formed between the Kurds, Arabs, and Christians. The Kurds however have an understanding with Asshad...so I think its strictly an anti-ISIS alliance.

Saudi Arabia is going to be interesting to watch. As much press as the Russian military expenditures have been, take a look at what the Saudis have done in the past decade. Depending on which survey you follow, they are spending more in nominal dollars (and 2-3x more in %GDP terms) than the Russians! They can match the Russians dollar for dollar and then some. And they have to.

They are very skeptical of the Russians' foray into the region and, I believe, will work hard to make the Russians' time in Syria as miserable and bloody as plausible deniability will allow. TOWs to the FSA (via Turkey) are just the start. If the Russians push things too far, the Saudis won't be afraid of equipping these same guys with more capable MANPADs. They don't want to do so today, but the Russians have to mind their 'Ps and Qs' in the area. Bombastic displays of Superman emblems will likely come at a cost in Russian blood and treasure.

In the cold war years, Nixon was able to wrest China away from the USSR orbit. Today, Russia and China are back together. That's a pretty tough combo.

It would be if it were true. See my previous comments. The Russians and the Chinese are no more "back together" now than they ever were.

The Chinese are pursuing their own self-interests. At this time, the Chinese are interested in serving notice and by flying their flag globally. That's it.

Militarily, the Chinese capabilities are growing, but are still not in a position to be an expeditionary force outside of the South China Sea. What do you think they can accomplish by an under-armed, limited capability second-hand aircraft carrier and support group in the Med?

China's interests are not served by being embroiled in a war in the Med. or by tweaking the nose of their oil supply (Saudis) coming out of the Persian Gulf.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
No need to consolidate gains in Crimea, that happened quite a while ago. As for eastern Ukraine, there is now an official truce with the Ukrainian government, and Russia has moved in some heavy artillery.

I believe the Russians will need an occupying force in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine for the foreseeable future, particularly the latter. True, Putin 'wins' by having the Ukranian situation smolder while his gaze goes abroad.

Suppose the Ukranians were to get a gift of 500 TOWs from Saudi Arabia, their freedom-loving Allies? Maybe some MANPADs too? Awww...heck...the Saudis can send 'em some M1A1s also. Why not?

Militarily, there is merit in stoking the embers of this cease fire. Russian blood and treasure would be needed to regain the status quo if the Ukranians were reinforced and properly supplied. Ukranian pressure would require a committed response by the Russians. Their Syrian forays would have to be put on hold or scaled back in order to avoid active participation in a two-front expeditionary war.

Their economy is not well, but that's not going to stop them...and I don't see it crashing other than their stock market. Resources are a valuable commodity, and Russia has lots of everything.

The collapse in the price of crude oil in the last year has been devastating on the Russian economy. The problem with the Russian economy is that they haven't had the foresight to diversify from the oil heyday after 2008. Sanctions have caused some pain as well.

Russians are now spending 45% of their income just on foodstuffs! That number-thanks to 15% inflation-will go up. I've seen estimates that will be 55% in the next year.

The ruble has been cut in half and is a laughing stock for the international carry trade. Despite Superman's railings against the Dollar / Euro and other reserve currencies, they've held up. The ruble? Not so much. Being as oil exports are denominated in dollar terms, that's doubly damning for the Russians in particular.

Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment

Not that the Russians have ever *really* needed a prevarication to attack, but how-exactly- would they rationalize a Turkish incursion into Syria as a matter of national life or death? This would be / could be / should be between Turkey and Syria.

Syria has been involved in several regional wars as a belligerent. Mostly involving Israel and / or Lebanon. Did that serve as prevarication for the United States to enter the fray? To simplify it further, if Syria is a vassal state of the Russians, isn't Israel largely considered a vassal state of the United States? If "their" vassal state attacked "our" vassal state and we did nothing overtly in the past, why would they have any realpolitik cause to immediately get personally involved?

...the Russians would look at least in some way justified. The Turks need help if they can get it (doubtful...I see the same pre-WWII promises from the west), and shooting down Russian aircraft venturing into Turkish air space would even be a mistake, but at least world opinion would be with them (for what its worth...2 cents?).

Russian Army is about 500,000 including paratroopers. Add to that political correct Russian "rules of engagement" = slaughter.

So? The Turkish army is 402,000, including a number of special forces. You think the Turks would give a rip about rules of engagement and PC values if the Russians shoot first?

The Russians' overflights are probing Turkey's resolve. The Syrians have done this from time to time as well. Result? Downed Syrian MiGs.

From the Turks' perspective-you cannot allow your national airspace to be overflown by foreign combatants with an unknown agenda. Full stop. The Russians would be foolish to press their luck, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment

With all due respect, you have no real clue about Turkish capabilities. Russia moving on Turkey would be a complete, total, unmitigated disaster for Russia. And that is excluding the very high (read almost certain) probability of engaging NATO in broad if not direct terms.

[Jagdtiger14]

Lecivius: I am fully aware of NATO's obligations to its member states. I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved. If Turkey makes a move into Syria against the Russians, I highly doubt any NATO member would come to Turkey's assistance.

Do you have a clue about Turkish capabilities (other than internet research)? So you think one on one Russia could not defeat Turkey? I see Colorado has collected 100M in pot tax revenue.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Lecivius: I am fully aware of NATO's obligations to its member states. I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved. If Turkey makes a move into Syria against the Russians, I highly doubt any NATO member would come to Turkey's assistance.

Do you have a clue about Turkish capabilities (other than internet research)? So you think one on one Russia could not defeat Turkey? I see Colorado has collected 100M in pot tax revenue.

1) Yes, yes I do. First hand, albeit my information is @ 35 years old. And what I saw was impressive. Obviously you do not, other than texts and games or you would/should know better.

2) Russia probably could defeat Turkey. If it went all out, bankrupt their country, risked ostracizing itself to the entire world, risked crippling their military, risked all out war with the west (and all that entailed, and the risk IS there), and was prepared to be an occupying force (with all that entails) for as long as it stayed and with so little to gain. Russia today is a world power, make no mistake. But it is not the Soviet Union any more than the U.S. is what it once was.

3) Just WTF does that have to do with the price of tea in Mexico? Shall I make inane jokes about Florida? Because I can, and I guarantee you won't find them amusing.

Enough. I already started one, I'm not gonna start another.

[Jagdtiger14]

"doubtful" Chickenboy? Ever hear of CHAMPS? Russia has something similar that they sold to Syria back in 2012...created a stir in Israel when it went public thanks to Assad bragging about it...and that's just to target specific areas. An EMP burst in the atmosphere can cover a wider area...back in the cold war (60's I think) both sides were experimenting with Starfish E1 EMP's (low yield but intense)...I don't really know the particulars, but I did hear that back in the early 90's when Russia was more cooperative with the US sharing their own data.

What is your fascination about the Bosporus and the Dardanelles? That's two or three times I've read you mentioning that. Why are the Russians supposed to force their way through? Don't assume your opponent will make bad decisions. The Russians have other navies, and I don't think the Black Sea fleet is all that anyway.

Laugh it up Chickenboy. Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Shiites in Iraq (militia's and government) are all cooperating. In 1979, the USSR was the first to recognize Iran's new government, USSR supplied Iran with weapons to fight Iraq and weapons sales have continued to this day. Russia assisting Iran in its "peaceful" nuclear program, Iran dislikes Turkey, Shanghai cooperation agreement, trade, etc...and now Syria. Yes, if this civil war blows up to include larger nations, Iran will side with Russia. The back door will be open.

Retreating...well, lets see...USS Theodore Roosevelt has recently left the theater (replaced by the Chinese carrier (lets see if they launch any strikes...that would prove one of us wrong)). We've been doing next to nothing vs ISIS (the JV team) for a while now. The 60 nation coalition is a paper tiger coalition with no one doing much of anything including the US...even UAE decided to call it quits because they do not think we are serious. The US has postponed reviving the Geneva Framework (power transition in Syria)...no longer calling for Assad to step down, there is not and never has been a plan. The US is no longer leading anything much less the "free world". Putin is filling this vacuum. Israel is even coordinating with Russia and even cozy-ing up with Russia according to a recent article in the Economist (there is even a vacuum in the Israeli-US relationship).

I don't think the Russian force in Ukraine is an occupying force at all...I think its offensive. The vast majority of eastern + Crimea people are pro-Russian...its as much Russia as Russia is.

Valuable commodities = currency. Putin has been stockpiling gold as Russia prepares for economic war...as gold prices have been falling, Russia has been buying. 55 tonnes in the 3rd quarter this year alone. I think Russia has about 1,150 tonnes (or this is what they hoarded in the last 10 years in total, I cant tell which). As far as I know, Europe is still dependent on Russian gas...so the Europeans will be buying...and if its a colder than normal Winter...

If Turkey really wanted to do something vs Syria, why hav'nt they until now? Doing it now is provocative vs Russia, and I was responding to your suggestion they might want to take out the Russian bases. Not going to happen. Its not about "vassal states" or client states...Russia is there now, and increasing their footprint.

Turkish Army: 77,000 professionals, the rest conscripts. I don't think the Turks would have any "rules of engagement" either...I think that is purely a US invention. My point however to put it bluntly, the Russians are professional butchers.

Big difference between downed Syrian MiGs and downed Russian aircraft. There will be punishment...question is, what happens after Russia punishes Turkey?

The funny thing is I hope you are right. I would like nothing more than to see Russia and Putin go back home with their tail between their legs, and for the Turks to kick butt vs any provocative invasion of their territory. I want to see a strong NATO. However I see massive weakness on the part of the west, combined with a 15 month window for the bad guys to get their goals accomplished (what ever they may be). Underestimating your opponent and over estimating your side...as you like to say: "good luck with that".