The Italian Spear

[warspite1]

In this scenario there is no Vichy France - Hitler has had to liquidate it as it no longer suited his purpose thanks to Franco's intransigence.

There is no Battle of Britain in this scenario either.

[Jagdtiger14]

Brian, I agree with most of what you write, except: I'm not sure the Luftwaffe wants to fly down there too quickly and too closely...best to fly air field to air field as the German force makes its way to Gibraltar. I see the advantages of getting the Luftwaffe there quickly though. What kind of AA do the Spanish have?

I think the next operation after Gibraltar has to be Malta, but the situation near Gibraltar has to be decided as well...does the CW take Spanish Morocco (I think it would be a good idea?)...they should take the Canary Islands for sure. How difficult would it be post-Gibraltar for the Germans to make their way to Spanish Morocco? Perhaps that's where most of the Spanish army is located before Germany begins its march south?

After Malta the Greek/Crete thing has to be settled. I think that might take us to the end of 1940? Lets see how things play out realistically. The CW should try to limit their losses as much as possible, at the same time making it as difficult as they can for Germany, and making stands where they can succeed.

[Jagdtiger14]

Warspite: You make excellent points about the various leaders.

So how do we make some problems for the Spanish before the Germans arrive on the scene?...and will it have any impact post Gibraltar?

[warspite1]

Two things:

1. I think we allow the Spanish to get beaten up a bit and then the Germans have to come to the rescue (Italy revisited!). It will have no effect on the outcome, but make Hitler realise pretty quickly that the Spanish (brave troops if the Blue Division are anything to go by) but are a liability as a whole.

2. What paratroop capability do the Germans have? I know that they earmarked an airlanding formation for the Gibraltar operation. But would this be better employed in Malta? Or to bolster Moroccan defences ahead of Gibraltar falling (to stop the French or British getting jiggy with it down there)?

[Orm]

Currently I am considering what such a fast entry into the war for Spain, will have on the Spanish merchant fleet.

Would not a huge part of that fleet be lost? I would expect a fast reaction from the British and a naval blockade of Spain.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Currently I am considering what such a fast entry into the war for Spain, will have on the Spanish merchant fleet.

Would not a huge part of that fleet be lost? I would expect a fast reaction from the British and a naval blockade of Spain.

warspite1

I could not get an accurate view on Spanish merchant fleet size - which is annoying.

Two things that will happen imminently before the Germans get a chance to bring the Luftwaffe into play:

1. The British carry out their plan to seize the Canary Islands
2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Then over time:

3. Spanish merchant shipping is captured as it tries to get back from wherever it is around the globe (probably much of it trading with South America).

[Orm]

2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Could not RN bombard the Spanish fleet in the ports?

[Orm]

3. Spanish merchant shipping is captured as it tries to get back from wherever it is around the globe (probably much of it trading with South America).

And USA.

[Orm]

The more I think on it the more I am leaning towards a total annihilation of the Spanish merchant fleet. Not that I have any facts to back it up.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

2. The British fleet pulverise what remains of the Spanish fleet (in Cadiz?) using every available fleet air arm unit.

Could not RN bombard the Spanish fleet in the ports?

warspite1

Yes it will be a Catapult type operation with the FAA used as well.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

The more I think on it the more I am leaning towards a total annihilation of the Spanish merchant fleet. Not that I have any facts to back it up.

warspite1

Yes, remember the Italians lost a large amount (cannot recall the exact % off the top of my head) of its merchant fleet - Spain will be in the same position.

[warspite1]

One thing we have not clarified is whether Catapult happens. I suspect so but the timing is tight. The scenario becomes more interesting if Catapult has not been launched.

So we shall say Catapult goes ahead or not?

[Orm]

So we shall say Catapult goes ahead or not?

Aye. Without doubt.

[Orm]

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.

warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Spain will be in the same position.

I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.

warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.

Indeed.

I failed to make my main point. For Italy their merchant ships in their home ports were fairly safe. For Spain not so much. And I think CW would act both fast and aggressive. I think they would unleash RN and their local commanders.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm


I think that Spain is in a worse position since I believe it to be longer for the Spanish ports to be safe for the merchant ships.

warspite1

It's swings and roundabouts. Any Italian shipping that got to Italy was, to an extent protected. But it was getting back to Italy - via Suez or Gibraltar - that was impossible post June 10th. The large loss was due to so many ships being outside the Mediterranean rather than just outside Italy.

For Spain, the ports are indeed more potentially vulnerable (unless the Germans get defences in place) but the ships could, at least in theory, get past a blockade.

Indeed.

I failed to make my main point. For Italy their merchant ships in their home ports were fairly safe. For Spain not so much. And I think CW would act both fast and aggressive. I think they would unleash RN and their local commanders.

warspite1

To the tune of Team America World Police

'Royal Navy; F^&* Yeah!' [:D]

[Jagdtiger14]

Love that movie: "Team America"!

Operation Catapult would happen for sure, and I do not see how it would not (if it has worthwhile targets). The only question is, do we give Franco any kind of intelligence bonus, that if he were to join the Axis, he might want to get the fleet to German ports prior to his announcement (maybe his best warships and useful subs)?

The Spanish merchant shipping, at least some captains if no orders from Franco, might run for South American or neutral ports and end the war there (especially Argentina). So, I'm not sure they would all be captured.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Love that movie: "Team America"!

Operation Catapult would happen for sure, and I do not see how it would not (if it has worthwhile targets). The only question is, do we give Franco any kind of intelligence bonus, that if he were to join the Axis, he might want to get the fleet to German ports prior to his announcement (maybe his best warships and useful subs)?

The Spanish merchant shipping, at least some captains if no orders from Franco, might run for South American or neutral ports and end the war there (especially Argentina). So, I'm not sure they would all be captured.

warspite1

When I asked about Catapult - I meant historical catapult against the French.

The RN are definitely going to attack the small Spanish navy. No one cares if the Spanish merchant navy runs away. a) they could be caught en route, b) they are not intercepted and sit out the war - no problem, or c) they try and run the blockade back to Spain or Germany in which case they will either make it or be caught. If the latter great, if the former - then they can either sit in port or be utilised in which case repeat above [:)]

[Jagdtiger14]

The only thing I could find was that for Sea Lion, the 7th Flieger Div. and the 22nd air landing div. "had taken losses during the preceding campaign, and were now understrength." I'm not sure what other assets there were at that time. I could bother my cousin in Germany, but he's very old and this would have to be face to face next Summer...he was in the Fallschrimjager 1943-45, so might not even know anything about 1940 anyway. He was in Berlin the last month (Oder River picket between 1st and 2nd Belorussian fronts).