Spratly Islands

[Duck Doc]

Saw news reports about recent US resolve in sending the USS Lassen in asserting international rights of navigation. Would seem to be an ideal theme on which to build a scenario or even series. Are there any good East China Sea scenarios which come close to gaming a Sino-American clash in the region? Any other ideas or suggestions? Just curious.

[Vici Supreme]

Have you tried the Mission 2013D scenarios? It's a small battleset which takes place in the East China Sea and pits the US and Taiwan against China.

[ExNusquam]

"Play the Fool" features a full-scale exchange over Woody Island in the Parcels.

[AlanChan]

ORIGINAL: Supreme 2.0

Have you tried the Mission 2013D scenarios? It's a small battleset which takes place in the East China Sea and pits the US and Taiwan against China.

I looked at the mission and only found a few Cj-10 silo each equiped with 4 missiles.

But I didn't see any DF-11 and DF-15s. Did I missed any thing?

Because yesterday PLA daliy just published a interview of a 2nd Art Brigader about his bridage level fire assault exercise. That is speculated to be launching up to72 DF-11 at same time. He is not the only brigader conduced this kind of fire exercise. So I guess there should be a few hundreds of DF-11s and DF-15s flying in the beginning of mission.

[ultradave]

There is also "South China Clash" in the Standalone Scenarios. Not exactly what you were looking for but it is related at least.

[Dysta]

Hmm, a simple way to build a new scenario is add one US ABCD, one Chinese 052C and one 053H2 at SCS, then see for the result.

[Vici Supreme]

ORIGINAL: AlanChan

ORIGINAL: Supreme 2.0

Have you tried the Mission 2013D scenarios? It's a small battleset which takes place in the East China Sea and pits the US and Taiwan against China.

I looked at the mission and only found a few Cj-10 silo each equiped with 4 missiles.

But I didn't see any DF-11 and DF-15s. Did I missed any thing?

Because yesterday PLA daliy just published a interview of a 2nd Art Brigader about his bridage level fire assault exercise. That is speculated to be launching up to72 DF-11 at same time. He is not the only brigader conduced this kind of fire exercise. So I guess there should be a few hundreds of DF-11s and DF-15s flying in the beginning of mission.

You are right, I remember that the scenario was mostly ship-to-ship and air-to-air action. I'm not the author tho. I just thought this might be one of the few scenarios which comes close to what Dale H was looking for.

[Dysta]

Instead of 'traditional red army invasion' style of attack to an island, why not making a scenario that the PLAN does ACTUALLY BLOCKADING it? See if either Taiwan or US can save it out of the grasp of surrounding forces.

[Gneckes]

Isn't there a scenario like that already though?

[mikmykWS]

There is something bigger coming in the future. We're actually looking at the requirements for getting all the needed stuff coded in now.

Original game did ship with one scenario: South China Clash. As the guys have pointed out there are a bunch of really great community scenarios as well.

Thanks!

Mike

[Duck Doc]

What additional assets does each side have in the area beyond these? Thinking about escalating response to altercation involving USS Lassen.

ORIGINAL: Dysta

Hmm, a simple way to build a new scenario is add one US ABCD, one Chinese 052C and one 053H2 at SCS, then see for the result.

[FTBSS]

ORIGINAL: mikmyk

There is something bigger coming in the future. We're actually looking at the requirements for getting all the needed stuff coded in now.

Original game did ship with one scenario: South China Clash. As the guys have pointed out there are a bunch of really great community scenarios as well.

Thanks!

Mike

Yeah, during the streaming last week I mentioned a modern pacific war campaign so think NI but with DB3000 with China Japan India Austrailia and still the big boy in the pool The USN.

can't wait for this the NI was great but I love the new weapon tech developed over last 20+ years

[AlanChan]

ORIGINAL: Dale H

What additional assets does each side have in the area beyond these? Thinking about escalating response to altercation involving USS Lassen.

ORIGINAL: Dysta

Hmm, a simple way to build a new scenario is add one US ABCD, one Chinese 052C and one 053H2 at SCS, then see for the result.

CPLAN SSC patrol squadon (6X old 053s), CPLAN DDG division 6 and 9, a few FFG divisions, a few PT divisions equipped with Type 056s (VDS sonar), a few (about 10) subs, 2-3 air wings of CPLAN aviation, a few DF-21D AShBM briagde (50+ launchers), etc.

If Okiniwa is invovled, another few hundreds of SRBM and 3rd Gen aircraft would be invovled.

it is very hard to manage such a force with just one player, that is why I was hoping to get some Co-op function in the game.

[Vici Supreme]

ORIGINAL: FTBSS


Yeah, during the streaming last week I mentioned a modern pacific war campaign so think NI but with DB3000 with China Japan India Austrailia and still the big boy in the pool The USN.

can't wait for this the NI was great but I love the new weapon tech developed over last 20+ years

Something like this would be awesome!

[Hongjian]

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/a ... 2003631407

ROC does not ‘recognize’ UN tribunal

SOUTH CHINA SEA:MOFA said that Taiwan was not involved in the arbitration, and reiterated the ROC’s sovereignty claims over four island chains in the disputed waters

While not exactly siding with China, Taiwan actually shares the same 9-dash line claim (actually, the ROC claims an even larger swath of the SCS: 11-dashes) as The People's Republic of China simply by the virtue of still being "The Republic of China" in official name. Expectedly, they do not recognize the arbitration filed against China's claim by the Philippines and supported by the US, as it would mean to give up their own claims over the SCS.

This would make Taiwan quite the wild-card in any SCS conflict of the US and the other SCS claimants against China. This would put the United States in a pretty complicated spot, trying to support all the other claimants against China in the SCS, and thus damaging Taiwan's sovereignity as well, while still trying to get Taiwan to join their camp of containing China's influence.

If Philippines or Vietnam get involved into a shooting war with Taiwan (quite likely, seeing as a Taiwanese fishermen was killed by Philippine coast guard not too long ago), it would be quite a strange sight to see US-supplied and freshly upgraded ROCAF F-16Cs fighting against Vietnamese Su-30MKVs or Phillipine FA-50s. While the PRC would offer cooperation to the ROC that the ROC would decline, the PRC would be quite happy to see the absolute diplomatic mess unfolding in the SCS, as the US tries to form an anti-chinese alliance while all claimants in the regions have competing claims and the main US-protectorate Taiwan is fighting on the "wrong side" of that alliance.

Scenario wise, it would be great to include a ramdomized changing of the ROC's diplomatic stance in the conflict. It would be quite a game-changer, if the ROC would start hostilities with the other US-supported claimants or even allow PLAN (or US) air-assets the usage of their Taiping Island air-field.

[SeaQueen]

Officially, the US is neutral in this dispute, supporting no single nation's claim to the islands. The US government supports the UNCLOS. I think it would be a mistake to assume that a US intervention in a Chinese land-grab would necessarily mean supporting one nation's claim over the other. It could also represent the position that a warlike resolution of the dispute is unacceptable. The end-game might be some sort of mediated resolution between the interested parties or a restoration of the status quo (they're "nobody's islands" in practice).

It's like, during the first Gulf War, the US remained neutral on the border dispute between Iraq and Kuwait. It merely took the position that conquering Kuwait and deposing the royal family was unacceptable. The goal was to restore the Kuwaiti royal family, push the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, and restore the borders to their pre-war state.

I suspect a Spratly conflict would most likely have similar limited goals, where US/Coalition victory doesn't mean that the Philippines, ROC, or Vietnam gets the islands. It just means a restoration of the status quo, which while not ideal to the conflict's participants, probably is more preferable to all parties than any single party controlling them.

(actually, the ROC claims an even larger swath of the SCS: 11-dashes) as The People's Republic of China simply by the virtue of still being "The Republic of China" in official name. Expectedly, they do not recognize the arbitration filed against China's claim by the Philippines and supported by the US, as it would mean to give up their own claims over the SCS.

[magi]

ORIGINAL: mikmyk

There is something bigger coming in the future. We're actually looking at the requirements for getting all the needed stuff coded in now.

Original game did ship with one scenario: South China Clash. As the guys have pointed out there are a bunch of really great community scenarios as well.

Thanks!

Mike

How exciting......

[magi]

ORIGINAL: AlanChan

ORIGINAL: Dale H

What additional assets does each side have in the area beyond these? Thinking about escalating response to altercation involving USS Lassen.

ORIGINAL: Dysta

Hmm, a simple way to build a new scenario is add one US ABCD, one Chinese 052C and one 053H2 at SCS, then see for the result.

CPLAN SSC patrol squadon (6X old 053s), CPLAN DDG division 6 and 9, a few FFG divisions, a few PT divisions equipped with Type 056s (VDS sonar), a few (about 10) subs, 2-3 air wings of CPLAN aviation, a few DF-21D AShBM briagde (50+ launchers), etc.

If Okiniwa is invovled, another few hundreds of SRBM and 3rd Gen aircraft would be invovled.

it is very hard to manage such a force with just one player, that is why I was hoping to get some Co-op function in the game.

I really like this idea… It is foremost on my mind As far as scenario go… Modeling possibilities South China Sea..... However you were right it would be very big…

[Hongjian]

ORIGINAL: SeaQueen

Officially, the US is neutral in this dispute, supporting no single nation's claim to the islands. The US government supports the UNCLOS. I think it would be a mistake to assume that a US intervention in a Chinese land-grab would necessarily mean supporting one nation's claim over the other. It could also represent the position that a warlike resolution of the dispute is unacceptable. The end-game might be some sort of mediated resolution between the interested parties or a restoration of the status quo (they're "nobody's islands" in practice).

It's like, during the first Gulf War, the US remained neutral on the border dispute between Iraq and Kuwait. It merely took the position that conquering Kuwait and deposing the royal family was unacceptable. The goal was to restore the Kuwaiti royal family, push the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, and restore the borders to their pre-war state.

I suspect a Spratly conflict would most likely have similar limited goals, where US/Coalition victory doesn't mean that the Philippines, ROC, or Vietnam gets the islands. It just means a restoration of the status quo, which while not ideal to the conflict's participants, probably is more preferable to all parties than any single party controlling them.

(actually, the ROC claims an even larger swath of the SCS: 11-dashes) as The People's Republic of China simply by the virtue of still being "The Republic of China" in official name. Expectedly, they do not recognize the arbitration filed against China's claim by the Philippines and supported by the US, as it would mean to give up their own claims over the SCS.

The problem at hand is that SCS claimants already have land-grabbed the islands decades before (with China not even being the one who controls the most - it's Vietnam).

So, China didnt really land-grab anything in the last few years, but only fortified their existing 'possessions' (and that, in reaction to the fortification and reclaimation efforts of Vietnam and the Philippines who did it before China).
Even though global media likes to portray China's reclaimation as a provokation that could spark war, it really wouldnt, if seen objectively.




The only way for the SCS dispute to spin out of control is to have either country try to invade and annex an island that is being controled by another country.


If it is China who does it, the US would have all the reason to intervene. But there's basically no reason for China to do it, as the islands she is currently controling are offering her a pretty comfortable position to monitor and control maritime traffic in the SCS.

But what happens if Philippines and Vietnam does it, who assume that the US gave them a chèque en blanc to 'retake' what they see to be theirs due to the power overmatch against the PLAN? What if one of these two countries see China in a weaker position vis a vis the United States and use this to do the land-grab? What if thes two countries actually attack Taiwanese possessions in the SCS? Would the US fire at them and risk the anti-chinese alliance?

The entire issue isnt so simple. You cannot just portray it as "operation to defend innocent countries against China's illegal land grab", since objectively, there werent any land grabs in the first place.

I just suggest that any scenario should respect the complexity of this entire issue and wont try to merely reenact some simplicistic Tom Clancy-esque scenario. It would make it much more interesting, and enables the realistic portrayal of low-intensity engagements. I just hope that a 'ramming' mechanic will be implemented by that time, since that's probably the most likely action which could lead to some sort of low level escalation.

[Hongjian]

Some information about how the entire SCS claim came to be:

Purple/Deep Blue shows the legal EEZ claim of either country according to UNCLOS, and Pink/Light Blue shows the 'illegal' EEZ claims of either country. As one can easily see, it is actually the 'illegal EEZ' claim that forms the basic of each country's claim over large swaths of the SCS. The light blue/pink area is obviously the 'disputed area' by all countries.


(Note that Taiwan's legal EEZ is in bright pink and their 'illegal EEZ'-claim is just like China's - Yes, also towards the North into the East China Sea: Taiwan also claims the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands against the Japanese and calls them 'Diaoyutai')

(Philippine)

(Vietnam)

For either country, like China or Vietnam, to step back their illegal EEZ-claim, they expect the other party to do so as well. But as one knows, there is little trust in the international stage, especially when resource and commercial interests are involved. And with rising nationalism in literally ALL countries (not just China) stepping back means political suicide for either country's goverment. One should never forget that not just China is ruled by a Communist Party that relies on nationalism, but Vietnam as well. And even in 'democracies' like the Philippines, voters do not like to see their country giving up 'territorial waters'.

Now, the US can come in and try to solve this gordian knot. If they are merely hell-bent on containing China, they can support the other countries in their dispute against the Chinese - but as one can see above, this doesnt sit right with the Republic of China aka. Taiwan, since they share the same claims as China, since they consider themselves to be "The Real China - Unaffected by Communist Ursurpers", who is coincidentially one of the main US de-facto allies in the region.

If the US tries to be impartial and tells every single claimant to step back from their excessive claims, they have to smoother every single country's nationalist rage and commercial interests (dont forget; most countries there still rely on fishing as a major economic factor - the livelihoods of millions of poorer people living in the countries that are currently friendly with the US depend on that business).

But if the US just goes there to 'reestablish status quo', they are pretty much unemployed and waste their fuel. Since the status quo hasnt changed at all, even with the massive reclaimation of the Chinese controlled islands and atolls.

The question should rather be: What is the endgame that the US is striving for?