A Japanese Debacle - Sqz (J) vs. fcharton (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

Worst start ever as Japan. I'll update the first week of the war shortly, but so far I'm extremely frustrated with the poor performance of the IJA and IJN. One won't fly while the other can't hit the broadside of a BB. Oh well.

[SqzMyLemon]

So far it's been a rocky start for the bad guys. As mentioned earlier, the biggest problem I'm having is adjusting to the reduced aviation support available. I've reduced the aircraft over stacking at my forward bases, but since Dec. 8th Japanese LBA will not launch against targets within range in Malaya or the Philippines. I'm in the process of deploying aviation support forward in both theatres, but essentially my greatest asset is grounded until I get the mess sorted out. Rear bases are massively over stacked and full of aircraft needing service, but there isn't enough aviation support available. Japanese fighter effectiveness has been severely reduced as a result of flying at long range and pilot fatigue is becoming a major concern.

I'm learning an important lesson that will influence how I plan to conduct air operations moving forward.

With the poor performance of the air force, I've had to rely heavily on the navy and well, it hasn't been pretty. Normally effective Japanese submarines haven't hit anything larger than an xAKL. Any other target has been missed or hit with a dud. When Japanese naval assets have engaged their Allied counterparts, the results have been bad for the IJN. The latest debacle has resulted in the loss of BB Haruna against Force Z on Dec. 12th. Details will follow when I do an update of the first week.

Japanese morale is in the tank with my worst start ever in a PBEM. Whatever can go wrong right now...is.

However, it's early and too soon to panic. The Australian operation is still a go. The pieces are almost in place to launch my multi-phase offensive in the DEI, New Guinea and the Solomons prior to setting sail for down under. It's Australia or bust.

[Lowpe]

Way too early to panic....follow your plan and stay flexible.

It is a long game...heck, Obvert lost the KB off Pearl on Dec 8th and did amazingly well.[;)]

There is always the fallback strategy of less than historical expansion, and a bitter defense.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Way too early to panic....follow your plan and stay flexible.

It is a long game...heck, Obvert lost the KB off Pearl on Dec 8th and did amazingly well.[;)]

There is always the fallback strategy of less than historical expansion, and a bitter defense.

I know. I'm frustrated in general with RL issues, the game not going well is just piling it on. I'll take my lumps in the game and get it sorted out, but so far performance is underwhelming.

I've started going over a number of old AAR's to see the effects of DBB and what other players have done. I should have done this before I started. [8|]

[SqzMyLemon]

The first of the units assigned to Australian operations have begun arriving at Babeldoab and Truk. It's going to take some fancy logistic work to organize the assault shipping loads without exceeding stacking limits at both bases. When Rabaul and Manus are taken I'll have more SL flexibility to arrange final amphibious assault load outs. The initial priority was to get the units forward as efficiently as possible, now I have to set up the TF's for quick unloading under combat conditions. One thing I have noticed to date is the majority of my amphibious operations have unloaded inadequate amounts of supply during the initial landings. I believe it will be in my best interest to have smaller TF's of xAKL's dedicated to unloading supply only, while setting most of my assault TF's to troop load outs only.

The plan is becoming clearer as the assault forces gather. It is going to require a monumental logistics effort on my part to insure all the pieces are in place for a chance at victory. The exact timeline for preparations to be complete is a little unclear, but I hope to land within the second week of January at the latest.

KB is three days away from rearming/refueling at Truk. Once ready, it will swing south to support landings at Manus, Rabaul and Port Moresby. I may invade PM a little light in an effort to draw Australian reinforcements to northeastern Australia, Horn Island and even PM itself. Anything to draw strength away from Sydney.

While the amphibious operations against Rabaul are underway, Japanese forces will move against Ambon, Balikpapan, Kendari, Tarakan and Timor in the DEI.

I'll be sending the Dec. 14th turn to Francois tonight, then I will begin posting screenshots updating the war to date.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I've started going over a number of old AAR's to see the effects of DBB and what other players have done.

Never played it. Sorry, so I have little advice on DBB specific issues.

My only comment would be that John specifically intended to slow down the pace of the game by a factor of at least 2. Being a dev, he would have known exactly how to do that.
So, if you original plan said to be doing something in 6 weeks, you need to think that it will be 12 weeks instead...

[SqzMyLemon]

It's all good Pax. My previous posts made it out to be worse than it is. It's just my poor play adjusting to the changes.

I thought by looking at some other AAR's I'd get an idea of how to compensate moving forward and compare timelines of expansion.

I have aviation support arriving at forward positions now, so I'll be much more effective.

[SqzMyLemon]

How many Japanese CA's does it take to sink CL Boise and live to tell the tale?

[FeurerKrieg]

Boise is a tough one. I've put two air torpedoes into her on different occasions in my game, and lit some fires from surface combat, and she still isn't sunk.

[GetAssista]

Brooklyns were absolute beasts in earlier betas with ridiculous turret armor until just recently as far as I recall. Now they are more reasonable, but the reputation is still there

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

How many Japanese CA's does it take to sink CL Boise and live to tell the tale?

Trick question!

None, the Boise cannot be sunk!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

How many Japanese CA's does it take to sink CL Boise and live to tell the tale?

Trick question!

None, the Boise cannot be sunk!

[:D]

In my case it took four CA's and four DD's to take on CA Houston and CL Boise, losing one CA and DD while having a second CA severely damaged. I had hoped my superior numbers against two Allied cruisers with no DD support would have landed a few long lance hits, but no joy there. CA Houston was flushed out into range of CVE Hosho and CVL Zuiho, but the Kate's failed to score any hits.

[SqzMyLemon]

I tried something really stupid today. Francois is redeploying troops throughout the DEI and I just don't seem to be able to interdict the important Allied TF's. I have no problem finding and destroying the low hanging fruit like xAKL's, but when I run up against juicier targets the results are just not that great. Anyway, I digress. I had spotted two large Allied transport TF's heading to Singapore and I had four DD's in a TF nearby, so I ordered an interception at Singapore. I know it was a suicide mission, but in the spirit of Bushido I thought I might be able to take out some transports loaded with troops, or prevent some from evacuating Singapore at least. AAR follows:

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Day Time Surface Combat, near Singapore at 50,84, Range 19,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Fubuki
DD Usugumo
DD Shirayuki
DD Hatsuyuki

Allied Ships
DD Edsall
DD John D. Edwards
xAP Glenorchy
xAP Kota Radja
xAP Bontekoe
xAP Tjisaroea
xAP Van Riebeek
xAP Van Neck
xAP Van Overstraten
xAP Van Rees
xAP Van Spilbergen

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 19,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 19,000 yards
Both TF attempt to withdraw!
Range increases to 19,000 yards...
Both Task Forces evade combat

Really? Comon [:@]

Then this [:D]:

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Naval Gun Fire at Singapore - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

58 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
DD Hatsuyuki, Shell hits 21, Mine hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Shirayuki, Shell hits 16, Mine hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Usugumo, Shell hits 3, Mine hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Fubuki, Shell hits 3, Mine hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Singapore Fortress firing at DD Hatsuyuki
Singapore Fortress firing at DD Shirayuki
Singapore Fortress firing at DD Usugumo
Singapore Fortress firing at DD Fubuki
DD Fubuki firing at Singapore Fortress

I clearly had no idea how my TF would react, but it sucks that they avoided such a soft Allied TF only to get wiped out for nothing. Oh well, I really don't care at this point because my entire Malaya campaign is pooched because my LCU's all have fatigue in the high 20's and they are moving at a snail's pace. I should have landed at Mersing, but I've never encountered fatigue effects like these before. I landed a number of regiments by amphibious landing at Kuantan, and after taking the base they have only moved 18 miles in move mode after five days...WTF.

It appears Palembang is being reinforced with eight Allied units present according to recon. Since my attempt to move quickly at Kuantan has failed, I will get a division worth of troops from Kota Bharu and invade Palembang.

I've been meaning to update, but I'd rather put the time into the turns. I hope Francois is giving a blow by blow account for the readers of my inept return to playing the Japanese.

[spence]

I feel your pain, sort of. IMHO your DDs should have attacked the transports. But in like circumstances my PT boats, who lived for nothing more than to put a torpedo into an enemy BB, "evaded combat" over and over again for turn after turn in a PBEM (Efate to Luganville) even though on moonless nights they detected the enemy on radar long before the enemy detected them. Frankly it seems like the "evaded combat" probabilities used by the AI are a bit too high.

However an interception in an enemy harbor covered by lots of CD guns ought to be a real suicide mission. Doesn't seem quite right that the game resolves the combat in two separate combats though...the sequencing program is most likely at fault...IMHO one combined combat would be more realistic...if you're gonna send some ships on a suicide mission at least you should know that that is what you are doing.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: spence

I feel your pain, sort of. IMHO your DDs should have attacked the transports.

I'm just not playing smart. I knew sending those four DD's to Singapore was a dumb idea, whether they attacked the Allied TF or not. I'm rushing and it shows. I need to step back, gather myself and play my game. I'm getting what I wanted, an aggressive Allied defence in Burma, China and the DEI, the only problem is not setting myself up to take full advantage.

[SqzMyLemon]

On a positive note, I found out where the Allied CV's were today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Rarotonga at 149,179

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
F2A-3 Buffalo x 10
F4F-3A Wildcat x 11
SBD-2 Dauntless x 15
SBD-3 Dauntless x 11

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AMC Hokoku Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AMC Aikoku Maru

Where there's one...

If Francois sends the American CV's to Australia they could end up right where I want them.

[SqzMyLemon]

China Theatre Dec. 17/41.

IJA 13th Army is tasked with the capture of Chuhsien, Pucheng, Wenchow, Kanshien and Kukong.

Forces assigned:

13th Army HQ
11th IMB
12th IMB
13th IMB
20th IMB
15th Div.
17th Div.
22nd Div.
116th Div.
8th Armoured Car Co.

IJA 11th Army is tasked with the investment of Changsha and capture of Pingsiang, Hengyang, Siangtan, Shaoyang and Kweilin.

Forces assigned:

11th Army HQ
14th IMB
18th IMB
3rd Div.
6th Div.
34th Div.
39th Div.
40th Div.
9th Armoured Car Co.
2nd Ind. Eng. Rgt.
8th Ind. Eng. Rgt.

It's clear to me Francois enjoys the China theatre and will devote time and effort into defending it. Initial enemy moves indicate a general withdrawal from clear terrain hexes and deployment to positions in more defensible terrain. Normally, I would seek to isolate and encircle concentrations of Chinese forces and destroy them in detail. I will not be adhering to those tactics in China, in light of my focus on an Australian campaign first. The priority as I see it, in China, is to initially punch through the Chinese defence and strike deep into the heart of the country capturing Kweiyang. With the Japanese focus on Pacific expansion in the first 4 months of the war, the Burma theatre is going to be critically weak until the (successful?) conclusion of Australian operations. I don't have the time to simply push the Chinese back, but need to close off access to China via Burma internally with restricted Japanese forces. Recent Allied deployments indicate Burma is going to be contested early, and in strength, as both Moulmein and Rangoon are being heavily reinforced according to recon reports, with the obvious goal of supporting China. I'll explain my China plans more fully in future updates, but I'm going to be running some risks that may prove disastrous.



Malaya up next...

[SqzMyLemon]

I'm facing something I have no experience with, and that's an Allied forward defence and reinforcement of Burma and apparently Port Blair as well. I can't recall the numbers off the top of my head, but there are at least 6-8 units at Moulmein and 12-15 at Rangoon. Colours indicates Indian troops are present, so some have been redeployed from Singapore, or they were sailed in from India.

I had the IJA Imperial Guards Division moving on Moulmein, but in light of the Allied numbers at the base I've ordered it back to Malaya proper to speed the capture of Singapore. It can't achieve anything on it's own against the numbers I'm facing. The slow pace of advance in Malaya means Singapore will probably not fall until early February, possibly sooner if Francois has redeployed Commonwealth units from the base. Right now recon indicates 17 enemy LCU's at Singapore and maybe another eight still scattered throughout Malaya. Can I afford to wait until Singapore falls before I push into Burma. I can't do both at the same time, which Francois knows.

I think Singapore has to be taken before I can have freedom of movement in the region, but I'm going to have to pay attention to Burma far sooner than I would have liked. I'm wondering on the impact on the Japanese war effort if I leave Burma to fester too long. I'd hate to have Francois' actions dictate my strategy, but can a successful operation against Australia upset Allied plans in Burma? I'm definitely going to provide him even more troops for Burma with the Australian emergency package if I invade as planned. I'm going to be crunching some numbers later tonight to see if capturing Australia alone can threaten AV, and ask myself if it is more prudent to pursue a strategic bombing campaign or full invasion. The first will garner VP's, but not seriously threaten the overall Allied position. The second could win me the game if successful.

Not even two weeks into the war and it feels like this decision will be the most important one of the entire game.

[SqzMyLemon]

On a positive note, Japan's A-Team is back in the war. I'll update more fully later, but Japanese troops landed at Kavieng on Dec. 16th to start things off in the New Guinea/Solomons theatre. The Rabaul amphibious invasion TF is following supported by KB. On the 18th, KB located seven hexes away from Rabaul, catches an Allied cruiser force at the base. All Japanese aircraft carried bombs (to conserve torpedoes) and despite just 60kg bombs on the Val's, it appears two Allied CA's were sunk in a morning attack. Unfortunately, there was no afternoon strike.

The initial plan remains to capture Manus and Rabaul while investing Port Moresby to encourage Allied commitment to Northeast Australia. Five of seven Japanese divisions are awaiting the capture of Manus and Rabaul before deploying to combat load outs for the amphibious assaults. I'm still going ahead with preparations for a full invasion of Australia, but the final go is pending my decision on the impact to the future Burma campaign.

[Encircled]

My only caveat to that would be how confident would you be in being able to cut Burma off at will, if you are heavily involved in Oz?

If he's established in strength at Port Blair et al, then your oil sources are in real trouble, and a lot earlier that you'd like.