My only caveat to that would be how confident would you be in being able to cut Burma off at will, if you are heavily involved in Oz?
If he's established in strength at Port Blair et al, then your oil sources are in real trouble, and a lot earlier that you'd like.
My thinking is if, and it's a big if, I can capture Sydney in January or February the Australian campaign is all but over. If Melbourne turns out to be impossible to take, I can strat bomb the industry and aircraft factories, consolidate the rest of the country and turn my attention to trapping all the Allied units committed to Burma with amphibious landings by June at the latest. In the meantime, I could try Java on the cheap and immediately send 3-4 Divisions freed up from the capture of Singapore to Burma. Plus, I could have another division or two available after being bought out from Korea during this time.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
A note on other happenings. In the Philippines it appears Allied dispositions are divided among three positions. Eight units are at Lingayen, seven at Clark Field and 13 at Manila. I'm guessing that Francois wants to hold Manila as long as possible rather than give up and retreat to Bataan. I will look at reinforcing Luzon and try to defeat a portion of the Allied force in detail if they remain divided. There are 30+ Allied ships still in port at Manila according to recon.
A Japanese amphibious force is sailing for Balikpapan and should arrive in 2-3 days. An amphibious invasion force is loading at Manado and will attack Ambon within 3-4 days.
Japanese efforts to gain local air superiority over Singapore began on Dec. 18th. A portion of AVG is present along with British Buffalos. I'd put the rest of AVG and whatever other British air units are available at Rangoon. There are 40+ ships at port in Singapore according to recon. I have the route between Malaya and Sumatra now covered with torpedo capable Nell's. Once Kuching receives an Air Flotilla HQ the southern route will be closed. I'd like to strike Singapore's port to flush out the Allied transports.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
IMO you have to smash and take Blair. If you don't, it's bad news.
For Burma as a whole, remember that the quality of his troops is poor until late 1942 at best. In general, I wouldn't worry too much about it. You can outmaneuver him for a while with seaborne assaults, and Rangoon can be cut off from resupply as well and then you can starve him out. If you cut rail lines by marching over them, taking Akyab if he's squatting at Rangoon and Moulmein. Remember that he doesn't have enough planes to adequately defend every base in this area. If he's defending his airfield and port at Rangoon, you should be able to sail (and fly) around. If he chooses to meet you there, then he's probably had to weaken Rangoon (and Moulmein) to do so, which allows you to hit him there. You know the drill...
IMO you have to smash and take Blair. If you don't, it's bad news.
In general, I wouldn't worry too much about it.
I agree. I know the importance of Port Blair and I'll deal with whatever he happens to put there. The Allied forward defence is an opportunity to eliminate the LCU's and whatever air/naval assets are used to support these positions. Holding and supporting these positions in the first six months of 1942 is the Allied challenge. It's my job to make that impossible.
Until Singapore falls, I can't do anything about it anyway. I'll spend the time preparing for what must be done and then deal with it methodically and decisively.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
First winter snow storm of the year here, so getting to and from the office is an accomplishment.
Thanks for the comments. I'll get my AAR mojo going and provide some screenshots.
We've reached Dec. 19th and speaking of mojo, the Japanese may finally be on track somewhat.
KB has had two successful days in support of the pending Rabaul amphibious operation. On the 18th she sank two American heavy cruisers (7 Seagull floatplanes recorded as Ops losses), and today an Australian CA was sunk as Allied forces tried to withdraw south. I think I got lucky here with an Australian SCTF that was slowed due to refueling. I'll take it, because sinking three enemy cruisers for no loss in the South Pacific right now is a big deal. I've deployed submarines along the predicted route of withdrawal so maybe I'll get lucky.
The Rabaul amphibious assault will land tomorrow. The 144th Inf. Rgt. is tasked with the capture of the base and recon indicates only one Australian LCU present. Following close behind the Rabaul force is the bulk of the main Australian invasion forces. KB will clear the way. It's impossible for me to consolidate all the amphibious TF's involved under the time constraints, so there are dozens of follow up TF's strung out from Rabaul to Japan slowly making their way forward.
An Amphibious landing will occur tomorrow against Manus. Both Rabaul and Manus will be used as refueling/staging points for follow up TF before they head south. My one concern is the lack of artillery assigned to Australia. I should have diverted all the arty meant to land on Luzon to Rabaul. I am in the process of rectifying the situation.
In the DEI, I've diverted the Balikpapan amphibious force to land at Samarinda instead. I'll shock attack into Balikpapan to avoid the CD guns and possible mines. The operation is supported by CVE Hosho and CVL Zuiho. Manado is torpedo capable now and Nell's can fly support against any surface threat that appears. However, I'm not optimistic they'll be that effective. An Allied cruiser force was spotted at Ambon and attacked today, but no hits were recorded. So far I'm having little luck hitting any Allied naval assets of worth with submarine or air attacks in the region.
In China there will be a couple of ground assaults launched tomorrow. I thought there'd be a river shock attack against Chinese forces at Chengchow today, but when the turn was run Japanese forces invested the base without an attack at all. I've never encountered that before. It delays me a day though which is important as I begin to maneuver to cause the Chinese some grief.
I tried to capture Hong Kong on the cheap with just IJA 38th Division. That was a mistake and three deliberate attacks have failed. I redeployed IJA 104th Division back to Hong Kong to reinforce the 38th and another deliberate attack is ordered for tomorrow.
That is about all that is happening right now. Japanese forces continue to slog through Malaya as they march on Singapore. I've got adequate aviation support present now so pressure will begin to mount on Allied air forces in the theatre.
I feel much better about my position right now. I really dislike the first 2-3 weeks of the war as I try to organize Japanese assets into more logical deployments. I still have large numbers of aircraft sitting in rear bases with little to no aviation support though, but that can't be helped at the moment.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
There won't be a turn from Francois today, so later I might actually start looking at tracker and the state of the economy.
I've got a few resource taskforces operating from Fusan, Hakodate and Shikuka. I don't try to set up any fuel/oil tanker TF's in the DEI until I've secured the theatre. I am partial to my tankers and don't like to see them sunk.
I haven't done much in the way of aircraft expansion this time around. I've been slowly increasing production of the Oscar and Sally. I plan to use the Oscar heavily, but switch bomber production completely to the Helen when available. I've decided to rely on the Nell rather than the Betty which will eventually be phased out of production. As usual, I try to keep my 1942 aircraft production low so I can produce late war aircraft in substantial numbers.
Right now my focus is on fighters with the Frank, Ki-83 and Oscar taking precedence on the army side, while the IJN focuses on the Zero, Sam and George. I plan on producing the Jack, Tony and Tojo to some extent, but more for variety sake as I've never had a chance to see what they can do.
Engine research is devoted to the Ha-43 and Ha-45.
I'm relying heavily on the Ha-33, Ha-34 and Ha-35 power plants. Once the Helen enters production and the Betty is completely phased out the Ha-32 declines in importance and will likely be phased out of production.
I have not expanded any HI or LI yet, and may not at all if Australia goes well. With our house rule of allowing strategic bombing from day one I don't want to risk expanding a factory to only see it damaged right away.
I have reduced merchant and naval shipyard construction somewhat to conserve HI. Vehicle production has been increased to 180/day and armaments will run at full production initially, but I tend to turn some off if losses are light in 1942. I like to shoot for saving roughly 3-6k HI/day with the standard goal of a million or so banked by the end of 1942. Supply I'd like to bank at 8-10k/day once the initial expansion deficit runs its course. Reading other late war AAR's showed me the importance of stockpiling supply for the end game, so I will running a much more conservative expansion program and look to maximize supply savings through prudent production and economic exploitation of captured territory.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
I think expanding LI in the Home Islands is good since if there is anywhere you will have for a long time, it is those bases. HI pays back quicker, but it will just make you run out of fuel faster. I did expand HI in places where there was a surplus of fuel being produced like Port Arthur, Soerbaja and Singapore. But mostly I did LI in the Islands. We'll see how that plays out. I expect to have a big stockpile of resources, so hopefully the LI will keep cranking away the supplies.
Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net, copyright John Meeks
I think expanding LI in the Home Islands is good since if there is anywhere you will have for a long time, it is those bases. HI pays back quicker, but it will just make you run out of fuel faster. I did expand HI in places where there was a surplus of fuel being produced like Port Arthur, Soerbaja and Singapore. But mostly I did LI in the Islands. We'll see how that plays out. I expect to have a big stockpile of resources, so hopefully the LI will keep cranking away the supplies.
Just know that doing so increases your Resources deficit... so there are considerations for expanding LI elsewhere.
Agreed, although I've found I have a lot more resources than oil/fuel, but it is certainly something you have to run the number on.
I just know that I have to ship 35K+ daily just to keep up with demand, and you want to be building stockpiles also... so it can negatively impact your shipping available for other things as well as the fuel that will be burned because that shipping is going to be running constantly, instead of used for less frequent supply operations or troop movements.
Japanese landings at Manus, Rabaual and Samarinda go as planned. All three bases should fall tomorrow. Amphibious landings at Ambon and Kendari are planned next.
The deliberate attack at Hong Kong fails despite the addition of IJA 104th Division. Combat odds were 1:1 though and knocked forts down to 1. I'll bombard tomorrow and launch another deliberate attack on the 22nd.
Sweeps against Singapore are not flying and I'm not sure why. I checked the airbase today and it's slightly over stacked. Normally it isn't an issue, but perhaps it makes a bigger difference in DBB. I've adjusted the number of aircraft to an acceptable level to see if the sweeps will now fly. I'm having nothing but problems with my Malayan campaign.
Chengchow is captured in China against weak opposition.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
Sweeps still won't fly against Singapore and I believe it's due to bad weather. I've lost four days that could have been used to attrite Allied fighters and suppress fort construction with bombing. A British tanker tries to slip along the east coast of Sumatra, but Betty's at Singora sink her.
In China, east of Changsha, three enemy corps are routed and retreat into the base. I'm going to invest Changsha with a small force, but move the bulk of my forces through the city by gaining control of the southeast hex side. With Changsha flanked I'll move on Hengyang.
Invasions against Manus, Rabaul and Samarinda are successful and now under Japanese control. Dutch bombers based at Balikpapan attack my transports unloading at Samarinda, but CAP from CVL Zuiho takes care of the escorts and prevents the bombers from causing any damage.
Torpedo bombers at Manado are having the desired effect of keeping Allied surface assets away from the Celebes. I have few naval surface assets forward at the moment, but my transport TF's can go about their business unmolested. The Ambon and Kendari amphibious forces will begin loading on the 24th.
A NGU landed at Tulagi today and will take the base tomorrow. Japanese TF's are scrambling to rendezvous near KB and begin sailing south. A number of surface TF's also need to rearm/refuel before they can provide support. I'm hoping I can be off the coast of Australia in two weeks.
A note on Japanese submarines. They have sucked so far. I'm missing and duding most of the time. Did the DBB team get the specs mixed up with the American ones? [:D]
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
The force deployments are being finalized for the Australian invasion. I'm going to be short two infantry regiments, the 144th and 146th, for the initial landings. That leaves 5 1/3 Divisions for the initial landings with elements of IJA 1st Division arriving piecemeal as reinforcement.
The initial three landing sites are Port Kembla, Sydney and Newcastle, all of which have CD gun defences but only Sydney and Newcastle are mined. Sydney begins with a garrison of low experience and 431 AV. I can't recall off the top of my head the AV at Port Kembla and Newcastle, but I believe it is less than 300 AV combined.
I will land one division and IJA 1st Raiding at Port Kembla and 1 1/3 divisions at Newcastle. The remaining three divisions will land directly at Sydney. Armoured units will land at the flanking bases and race to support the planned paratroop drop inland. Aviation support will unload during the initial landings at Port Kembla so air operations can commence as soon as the base is taken. AV's (Thanks Pax) will unload uncrated transport aircraft and fighters immediately in preparation for the air drop.
With the capture of Rabaul, IJA 144th Rgt. is available and will immediately load for an amphibious assault against one of the weaker held bases north of Brisbane to allow an air bridge for reinforcing air units to reach my positions in Australia. Air power will be key in interdicting Allied ground movement and suppression of enemy naval operations.
I'm currently working out how best to provide rearming/refueling of surface assets. I need to look at the manual to determine the amount of naval support needed at smaller bases to facilitate rearming. A number of transports are being converted to AKE's in Japan, but they will not be available for weeks.
There is much to do yet, but all the pieces of the operation are starting to fall into place. Providing all the necessary support during the first week will be crucial for success.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
An interesting piece of intelligence near Fiji. I know CA Indianapolis doesn't start in one of the American carrier TF's, but the two destroyers start at Pearl. It looks like the American Navy is deploying to the South Pacific, right where I'd like it to be.
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ASW attack near Yasawa Islands at 131,155
Japanese Ships
SS I-18
Allied Ships
DD Henley
CA Indianapolis
DD Jarvis
Malaya:
Zero sweeps over Singapore encounter no Allied CAP which meant clear skies for the bombers that followed. I was hoping to damage large numbers of transports, but the eager flight crews saw a more impressive target. AI mirrors human nature at times. AAR follows:
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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 31
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 4
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 37
Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Bomb hits 12, on fire, heavy damage
xAP Ipoh, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isis, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAP Kota Tjandi, Bomb hits 1
Port hits 2
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Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 15
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 4 damaged
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 1 destroyed by flak
Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Bomb hits 11, on fire, heavy damage
xAP Kinta, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Encounter, Bomb hits 1, on fire
Port hits 2
China:
Wenchow falls easily. AAR follows:
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Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 27281 troops, 267 guns, 111 vehicles, Assault Value = 824
Defending force 7277 troops, 16 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 166
Defending units:
100th Chinese/A Corps
25th Group Army
14th Chinese Base Force
The China theatre is going according to plan.
KB and the Australian amphibious assault forces begin to sail south. I will have to be careful, because if the Allies are in the South Pacific in strength they could get a shot or two at my invasion forces.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
AV's (Thanks Pax) will unload uncrated transport aircraft and fighters immediately in preparation for the air drop.
What is this you say? I thought only AKV's (and CV types of course) could transfer aircraft without crating them. I know AV's can move floatplanes but I thought anything else would get crated into the cargo holds and take the normal 2-4 days of repair time on unloading, same as an AK.
Upper portion used with permission of www.subart.net, copyright John Meeks
