Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 19th 1942[/font]
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While a good day I can´t afford many more of these! [X(]

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NORPAC
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Following two ambushes Jeff are now escorting his bombers again. I´ll see if he keeps it up this time. He has 140 Fighters at Coal Harbor which is a little bit too much for me to take on right now.


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India
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Had to hold off the attack for at least one turn as supply dropped to red among some of the units. I don´t see any movement out of the hex though so I might have time.

2nd British will be fully unloaded next turn.

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SOPAC
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As posted earlier Jeff again sweeps Brisbane. This time with no less then 6x18 planes. My pilots puts up a fantastic fight but 8 will never fight again and 12 are wounded. Mostly Army pilots.

Losses are starting to hurt me though. Especially P39 losses where pools are really starting to dry up. I only have one P40E squadron in OZ but the RAAF is ready to start pulling some weight.

Lost sight of that big SCTF moving straight for OZ?! [&:]

[Hermit]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Those figher figures have to be radically skewed by FOW. No Japanese player puts the KB in harm's way with minimal fighter protection. The fact that Lowpe is experienced makes that all but a certainty. He's probably got 250 or more fighters available.

I don´t think they are that much off actually! But he knows he is pretty safe from Allied bombers as long as he stays away from Sydney. Biggest AF in range is Brisbane at level 4.

I guess if I´m right he will pull back to Rabaul next turn. [:)]

Is your guess regarding fighters available based upon the KB initial loadout minus your count of kills? If not, what numbers are you using?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Hermit
Is your guess regarding fighters available based upon the KB initial loadout minus your count of kills? If not, what numbers are you using?

I don´t have a clue how the KB loadout looks to be honest! [:D]

My guess is purely based on consistent numbers being shown which also seem to match the actual losses very close. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Dogfighting Asanol[/font]
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Another good turn! [:)]

[BBfanboy]

All hail the Hurricane! [&o]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 20th 1942[/font]
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A third good day. Japan has lost over 200 fighters during the last week. Almost 100 of them from the KB!

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NORPAC
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Nothing.

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SOPAC
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KB vanish outside Allied Navsearch. Subs will pull back to Sydney to replenish and then set up a scouting perimeter between the Solomons and Santa Cruz.

I wonder what this was about? Just a try to grab VPs? Or an aborted invasion attempt? That big SCTF just vanished. A major Allied setback is that moving all those ships around really burned into my fuel reserves. Noumea is dried up as is Suva. NZ is down to 22k and OZ 150k. More is coming in but its at least 3 weeks out. I have to be very careful here.

Have a lot of smaller ships that can be drained though but I consider that the last step.

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India
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Hurricanes just wrecked Jeffs Oscars flying LRCAP over Asanol. Sadly though my bombers set to fly supply in never flew for some unknown reason! [:@]
Tomorrow I will have to rely on two relatively untrained P40 squadrons for sweep as the Hurris and the P38s need to recover FAT.

No supply flowed to my stack which is still showing red. So no attack ordered and it looks like Jeff is trying to reinforce from Rajshashi (sp?). Looks like another division. I can order up about 1500 AV from Calcutta but they are untrained Indian units which I rather keep on the defensive for now. Some of them are just 35/35.

Give me supply to the bloody stack stupid game!

I´ve had a CL TF probing the Burmese coast trying to find a hole but Jeff learned his lesson so they will head back to Colombo to repair SYS.

2nd British is mostly unloaded but will need 3-4 days to move to Calcutta.

[Canoerebel]

Is it the hexside control that's working against you here? Do you control just the one hexside? If so, supply has to move through it. If that's the case, supply that otherwise reach that hexside might first be traveling through other hexes that are taking it. Just a thought. And, whenever you have units in a hex, make sure you control enough hexsides to ensure you have viable paths of retreat. Don't get yourself into a box canyon. (I'm sure you know all this, but "just in case....")

Watching your game is very much fun. I think you're doing a fine job. I think you're going to witness a transformation in Allied power in about two months. In July 1942, the Allies are pretty much outclassed everywhere in a big land battle on a continent (whether that be Oz or India or, in weird cases, North America). But by September and October of '42, enough reinforcements have arrived that the you can sense the weight of power shifting.

So don't succumb to the urge to feel like you have to do something now. Don't take unnecessary or large risks. Let the power shift to you. You have time and territory to work with. I like what you're doing.

[BBfanboy]

At small bases, supply does not come every day, only once or twice a week - so it can look like supply is not flowing at all and then suddenly it arrives and you wonder why it took so long! I am not sure about supply flow in the field, but I suspect it moves in waves as well.

[Canoerebel]

When I was still playing AE in late 2013, supply was diffiicult to predict and nearly impossible to control in this kind of environment. Back then (and presumably still today), China was a great example. Supply did not flow to Chinese troops in cities, but seemed to flow abundantly to troops in non-base hexes. So Joc's units in this hex are in weird situation. I have no idea whether supply will flow to them. Others with more knowledge may know.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

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SOPAC
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KB vanish outside Allied Navsearch. Subs will pull back to Sydney to replenish and then set up a scouting perimeter between the Solomons and Santa Cruz.

I wonder what this was about? Just a try to grab VPs? Or an aborted invasion attempt? That big SCTF just vanished. A major Allied setback is that moving all those ships around really burned into my fuel reserves. Noumea is dried up as is Suva. NZ is down to 22k and OZ 150k. More is coming in but its at least 3 weeks out. I have to be very careful here.

Have a lot of smaller ships that can be drained though but I consider that the last step.

New Caledonia has got to be his target for his actions to make any game winning sense. I'd send the subs to patrol west of New Caledonia in a manner that they could also act as scouts for any approaching invasion force. I'd do what is possible to get some PTs and DDs to Noumea to use for economy of force operations out of Noumea. They can cause any surface escorts to use OPs points and provide hard to hit targets for KB naval strikes. Any naval strikes will divert KB air from supporting an invasion of New Caledonia. Ideally, I'd like to have the Allied CVs E/SE of Noumea within range of striking any Japanese amphibious landing at Noumea or La Foa, and a SCTF able to keep the KB on its toes and limit the KBs ability to support an amphibious assault. Basically the same advice I had for the WC although on a smaller scale.

Could you give an update of the forces you have devoted to defending New Caledonia?

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India
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Hurricanes just wrecked Jeffs Oscars flying LRCAP over Asanol. Sadly though my bombers set to fly supply in never flew for some unknown reason!
Tomorrow I will have to rely on two relatively untrained P40 squadrons for sweep as the Hurris and the P38s need to recover FAT.

No supply flowed to my stack which is still showing red. So no attack ordered and it looks like Jeff is trying to reinforce from Rajshashi (sp?). Looks like another division. I can order up about 1500 AV from Calcutta but they are untrained Indian units which I rather keep on the defensive for now. Some of them are just 35/35.

Japan doesn't know that your troops are low quality, and leaving Calcutta relatively undefended is not too much of a risk since he can't possibly make an amphibious assault against Calcutta with any chance of success given the forces he has available. You can use the Indian units for a show of force if you move them east and threaten to cut off his lines of communication to Burma. He will have to take the threat seriously, and it will force him to alter his plans. The worst case scenario from your perspective is that he focuses his air power against your troops on the open. You will suffer some casualties, but you can always withdraw back to Calcutta. Meanwhile you air power will be able to conduct operations where you really do want to conduct your offensive operations.

IRL I hate back seat drivers, but I am so envious of you in the circumstances of this game that I can't help myself from wanting to get my ideas for the game on the record. I want to apologize to you, and any readers, for any distractions I may be causing to your strategies. Maybe I should ask for a game save and take a request to the Opponents Wanted board to play this on my own. Does anyone think this would be better way to offer alternative strategies for games in progress?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is it the hexside control that's working against you here? Do you control just the one hexside? If so, supply has to move through it. If that's the case, supply that otherwise reach that hexside might first be traveling through other hexes that are taking it. Just a thought. And, whenever you have units in a hex, make sure you control enough hexsides to ensure you have viable paths of retreat. Don't get yourself into a box canyon. (I'm sure you know all this, but "just in case....")

Watching your game is very much fun. I think you're doing a fine job. I think you're going to witness a transformation in Allied power in about two months. In July 1942, the Allies are pretty much outclassed everywhere in a big land battle on a continent (whether that be Oz or India or, in weird cases, North America). But by September and October of '42, enough reinforcements have arrived that the you can sense the weight of power shifting.

So don't succumb to the urge to feel like you have to do something now. Don't take unnecessary or large risks. Let the power shift to you. You have time and territory to work with. I like what you're doing.

It might very well be. One of the hexes between my stack and Calcutta is "neutral" . I moved in a unit just to get clear path of owned hexes from Calcutta. Still no luck though. 3 turns in a row in the red now with 150k supply just 3 hexes away. [:(]

Thank you for your kind words. Much appreciated! [:)] I´ll try to refrain from doing something...rash! [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
At small bases, supply does not come every day, only once or twice a week - so it can look like supply is not flowing at all and then suddenly it arrives and you wonder why it took so long! I am not sure about supply flow in the field, but I suspect it moves in waves as well.

This is very likely what is happening here. I just have to be patient and wait for the supply to flow in. The delay shouldn´t change much (I hope).

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain
New Caledonia has got to be his target for his actions to make any game winning sense. I'd send the subs to patrol west of New Caledonia in a manner that they could also act as scouts for any approaching invasion force. I'd do what is possible to get some PTs and DDs to Noumea to use for economy of force operations out of Noumea. They can cause any surface escorts to use OPs points and provide hard to hit targets for KB naval strikes. Any naval strikes will divert KB air from supporting an invasion of New Caledonia. Ideally, I'd like to have the Allied CVs E/SE of Noumea within range of striking any Japanese amphibious landing at Noumea or La Foa, and a SCTF able to keep the KB on its toes and limit the KBs ability to support an amphibious assault. Basically the same advice I had for the WC although on a smaller scale.

Could you give an update of the forces you have devoted to defending New Caledonia?

You could very well be right about New Caledonia. But wouldn´t it have been better to land there straight away? No the element of surprise is long gone and everything is on high alert.

I have Catalinas flying from Luganville and one of the Santa Cruz islands so anything incoming this way should be spotted a long way out.

No chance to get any DDs in place right now though. They are all tied up with the SCTFs I have down here. With the amount of Japanese subs I don´t dare lessen the screen. I´ll see if I can get some PTs there though. [:)]

Going by memory I have about 2 IDs at Noumea. There are behind level 6 or 7 forts and have plenty of artillery and even some armor. I think I have a Defense Battalion at Koumac and LaFoa(sp?). Luganville have a lone RGT with some engineers. Forts are level 3 I think.

Japan doesn't know that your troops are low quality, and leaving Calcutta relatively undefended is not too much of a risk since he can't possibly make an amphibious assault against Calcutta with any chance of success given the forces he has available. You can use the Indian units for a show of force if you move them east and threaten to cut off his lines of communication to Burma. He will have to take the threat seriously, and it will force him to alter his plans. The worst case scenario from your perspective is that he focuses his air power against your troops on the open. You will suffer some casualties, but you can always withdraw back to Calcutta. Meanwhile you air power will be able to conduct operations where you really do want to conduct your offensive operations.

IRL I hate back seat drivers, but I am so envious of you in the circumstances of this game that I can't help myself from wanting to get my ideas for the game on the record. I want to apologize to you, and any readers, for any distractions I may be causing to your strategies. Maybe I should ask for a game save and take a request to the Opponents Wanted board to play this on my own. Does anyone think this would be better way to offer alternative strategies for games in progress?

Good points about the troops. I can well afford to send some out (and I did indeed to that last turn). With the level 8 forts and the 2nd British ID incoming there is little risk.

What I don´t dare risk though is moving east towards Dacca. Not with the poor quality of troops available. My recon and SIGINT is just too bad for me to dare do something like that. I´m "missing" about 5 Japanese IDs that I don´t know where they are. They are either already in India or SOPAC or going there. Until I know where they are I have to be careful.

Time is on my side here. Whatever he hold right now is irrelevant as long as I can get it back before 1/1/43.

Regarding air power I just show my last bullet last turn (which I havn´t updated yet). Have to pull back now as I´ve spent what I had.

PS, No need to apologize for making suggestion. I more then welcome ANY ideas and suggestions. The discussions following AARs are the reason I love to do them. So keep them coming! [:)]

[/quote]

[JocMeister]

PS. Lagging behind about 2 turns. I´ll try to catch up tonight.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 21st-22nd 1942[/font]
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A quick update to catch up!

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NORPAC
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Jeff again strike the NORPAC industry hitting several different targets. All have been previously bombed and Jeff looses a couple of bombers for a small gain in VPs. No bombings on the 22nd.

I got a bit of interesting SIGINT though!

9/48th/A Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.

So one of the missing IDs are on the move somewhere. Is he coming for PR? Mostly likely though this is just a ruse. Prince Rupert is probably the worst place to try a landing on the entire map. 800 AV behind level 6 forts and the biggest concentration of CD guns on the map. But where are they going?

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SOPAC
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Everything just vanishes into thin air including the KB. My big transport TF just unloaded at Auckland. I intended the engineers to build up the New Hebrides but now I lack the fuel to get them there. Bah! [:@]


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India
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Two more days of heavy fighting. I´m winning but losing at the same time. I´m still shooting down at least twice as much as I lose but my pools can´t sustain this any longer. I also lose a lot of bombers trying to airlift supply to my stack.

Time to pull back to Madras and recover. Some of the British squadrons will upgrade to the Hurricane IIc. P40s are down to 40 planes in the pool. 2 more months before the "K"...

Still no supply in my main stack and Jeff is trying to slide in an ID between my stack and Calcutta. This is just a feint though and I´ll let him be for now.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Thanks guys! [&o]

So its reasonable to expect the 1st wave to come ashore on the 1st day which would be followed up by the rest in about 3 days (if no hiccups occur)? Add naval detection and movement of about 6 hexes/day and I could possibly have as much as 4-5 days from detection to the first IDs are landed. In 6-8 days he could have landed everything he needs.

Should give me plenty of time to react accordingly.

Since I´m home from work I´ll look into the WC defense tomorrow. Going to read up on Japanese shipping too. Can´t find any AKVs in the starting OOB. Assume Japan can convert some shipping into AKVs? How about Navsupport? Does Japan get any "boat and shore" units like the allies do in DBB?

Thanks guys! So its reasonable to expect the 1st wave to come ashore on the 1st day which would be followed up by the rest in about 3 days (if no hiccups occur)? Add naval detection and movement of about 6 hexes/day and I could possibly have as much as 4-5 days from detection to the first IDs are landed. In 6-8 days he could have landed everything he needs. Should give me plenty of time to react accordingly. Since I´m home from work I´ll look into the WC defense tomorrow. Going to read up on Japanese shipping too. Can´t find any AKVs in the starting OOB. Assume Japan can convert some shipping into AKVs? How about Navsupport? Does Japan get any "boat and shore" units like the allies do in DBB?

I know I'm a little late to this party, and this may have been answered already... but naval support squads can drastically increase the unloading rate. If he puts them on an amphib (I always do), he can unload the bulk of the xAKs / xAPs the next day. Also (for my invasion at least), the support squads unload last, so all the combat power is on the ground first.
I wouldn't plan on a long exposure time. Another thing to add to the calculation is that it will take you a minimum of 4 days to respond to an attack - and 6 if he takes the base. 1 day to move there (minimum), 3 days to unpack, 2 days to march over good roads to the adjacent base if you don't want to risk unpacking in a hot hex.

As to shipping, he can boost his effective shipping by only packing up the combat elements of units for the first wave and leaving support squads back (Pearl, Coal Harbor, Kodiak, whatever). He can always bring them in the second wave (or even fly them in). I'm not sure of the Japanese OOB, but for the American one, using this method, you can effectively double the combat power you can land on D Day.

Overall, I like the idea of keeping powerful units in a strat mode reserve to quickly deploy where they are needed. But there are limitations to CONOPs. If he goes in fast and reckless (and I don't mean that in a bad way) he can upset your timetables.

Alfred has always said the game is about strategic movement (and least I think that is what he says). I would argue it is about time. Time from detection to destination, time to unload, time to move, time to unpack, time to set up the next layer of defense. Fall behind anywhere, and the next one is incrementally harder.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

PS, No need to apologize for making suggestion. I more then welcome ANY ideas and suggestions. The discussions following AARs are the reason I love to do them. So keep them coming! [:)]

I've got all kinds of suggestions for you, but I'll keep it to whiskey since I'm reading the other AAR.[;)]

Cheers,
CC

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

PS, No need to apologize for making suggestion. I more then welcome ANY ideas and suggestions. The discussions following AARs are the reason I love to do them. So keep them coming! [:)]

I've got all kinds of suggestions for you, but I'll keep it to whiskey since I'm reading the other AAR.[;)]

Cheers,
CC

I don't think he can find this in Sweden, unless he can find his way onto some kind of US base... which I don't think exists in Sweden.

It's one of my favored, being from Iowa and all [;)].

[CaptBeefheart]

Well, he's been able to procure some pretty obscure American craft beer, so why not some Templeton?

EDIT: I live pretty close to an American base, and my chums who look out for me have yet to spot this fine tipple there.

Cheers,
CC

[BBfanboy]

Apparently British whiskey expert Jim Murray, the writer of the World Whiskey Bible, likes this one best (made at Gimli, a few miles from here):

http://gearpatrol.com/2015/11/19/the-wo ... to-canada/