The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Air losses as of 1/3/43

[Canoerebel]

This is the decisive screen at this point in the game.

USAAF fighter pools are nil. The same goes for UK fighter pools. The Allies have nothing to fight an air war with.

This fact struck me as rather odd back in 2013. The Allies seem to be winning the air war (Japs have lost nearly 8k plans; Allies 5k). But it seems that the RA mod in that day and time left the Allies pools undersupported. This has had and will continue to have a huge impact on the game.

[Canoerebel]

Just found this in my screenshots file. Seems like a nice thing to include in the mix.

Margaret Lockwood of Great Britain.

[Canoerebel]

The tale of the game so far:

The Allies have done some really good things in this game along with a few bad things. The Japanese have done a few good things and some bad things.

Allied Good Things: (1) The Naval Battles of the Andaman Sea: This has gone on for months in the second half of 1942 and into 1943. There were huge battles at Akyab and Ramree Island. The Allies, against overwhelming naval opposition and strong Japanese air power, elected to stay and fight. There were a series of very big battles. The Allies came out ahead, sometimes decisively so. (2) The Invasion of Burma: The Allies took Ramree Island, have held it, and built it large. A large army then invaded Burma proper. It looked good at first, but it has bogged down and shows little promise. (3) The Invasion of Sumatra: This was massive and caught John just totally unprepared and off guard. It's the second best invasion + surprise I've ever cobbled together (following a massive invasion of the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido in a previous game vs. John). The issue is still in doubt here, but John has counterd effectively and seems likely to prevail. (4) The Allied navy is in good shape. (5) Territory: The Allies are in good shape for early 1943. Japan's only unusual lodgements are at New Caledonia, Geraldton vicinity, and most of the upper Aleutians.

Japanese Good Things: (1) John orchestrated a hammer and anvil naval strike using the full KB across the southern side of Oz, catching many Allied ships in the process. (2) John stabilized the Sumatra area, reclaimed the Allied-seized posts in Malaya, and is now on the offensive. (3) John stabilized the situation in Burma, which now appears to be a standoff. (4) Against my wishes and predictions, the Japanese army took Changsha.

[Canoerebel]

I've made two major mistakes in the game to date:

1. Not understanding the aircraft pools and replacement rates: As is my way, I played this game by the seat of my pants. I seldom dig into the nitty gritty of game mechanics and data. That's not an attribute, of course. It's a flaw. But that's how I play. I assumed that Allied airpower would be fine if the Allies were doing well in the air war. I was wrong. Allied figher pools in particular are woefully deficient. This is a product of RA above and beyond AE in general. I didn't dig enough to know. So that's all on me. If I had reasonable pools, the Allies might well hold in Sumatra. But as is, John should soon control the air, meaning things will get dicey there.

2. I listened to Nemo. This isn't Nemo's fault. His insight was good. His ability is superior. In the hands of Nemo or a player of equal caliber or a player better than me, I'm sure it would have been decisive. But I should have stayed withim my vision of how the Allies invasion of Sumatra would best work. As it was, I listened to Nemo's advice to also invade southern Malaya. This was successful for a time, but ultimately I lacked the understanding and vision that a better player would have had. Therefore, I ended up dispersing some of my firepower. Ultimately, John regained equilibrium. He has now retaken all of mainland Malaya. I could've better used those troops in Sumatra. I violated some important principal by not remaining within the realm of what I know and can envision.

[Canoerebel]

Just came across this amongst my screenshots. Why not post it again?

[Canoerebel]

To sum up the situation as I now find it:

1. Tactical: Japanese air power has begun hammering Allied troops and bases in western Sumatra. Massed sweeps of Tojos just hit Sabang, where the Allies have nearly 400 fighters. Can the Allies effectively fight here? Will John sweep again next turn (actually, he entered orders for the turn two years ago!) Should I put my fighters up again?

2. Operational: What do I do with Sumatra? I could Dunkirk. I won't. My plan is to stay and fight and make things as tough on John as possible. He's going to have trouble on the ground (his stack of four divisions in the jungle got messed up attacking this past turn). The KB is right there. The Death Star is in the Bay of Bengal. I will try to make things tough on John as I get a better handle on the air war.

3. Strategic: How do I use the current configuration to further the chances of victory as soon as possible? That'll take some thought.

[Chickenboy]

Have fun in your new found / old match, Dan. I shan't be participating further in this AAR.

[Canoerebel]

Interesting experience opening up the game and trying to issue orders after so long away.

One of the first challenges I had was trying to figure out how to use the UI to upgrade aircraft. It wasn't that I wanted to upgrade any, but rather that I couldn't remember how. It came back fairly quick, though, and I did end up upgrading a Chinese fighter squadron to the P-40E. More about this in a moment.

The first orders I issued in two years was to transfer VSX-1 (reconnaissance long-range Wildcast) from Pearl to Pago Pago enroute to somewhere or other.

The biggest decision: What to do with the Death Star? It's smack dab in the middle of the Bay of Bengal. The KB is off the NW tip of Sumatra quite a ways. More than half my carrier F4F squadrons are at Sabang, so the Death Star can't fight, though John doesn't know that (or maybe he does - he's seen those fighters meet his Tojos over Sabang). I've lost my feel for what he might do (bear in mind his orders were entered before we quit the game). So I'm pulling the Death Star back towards Diamond Harbor to give myself some time to think.

The Allied airforce isn't neutered yet. Pockets of strength: (1) 400+ fighters at Sabang - a big mix of Navy and Army. Lots of high experience squadrons with a zillion kills. Defending a ton of shipping including many BBs like Washington and North Carolina. (2) 280 fighters at Colombo defending a ton of shipping, mainly transports used to support Sabang. The fighters include three Chinese squadrons as I'd been working to find anything that might fight. (3) Perhaps four squadrons at Diamond Harbor - Marletts, Sea Hurricanes and two Chinese squadrons (one of which just upgraed to P-40Es.

Sabang is a level one port, level eight airfield. Lots of big AA units, big and small. Lots of fighting ships and merchant ships. Lots of mines. 280 AV behind three forts (and working on that now hard). The Allies have big armies at Medan, Langsa, and in the jungle to the south. It will be hard for John to pierce through this any time soon.

Bottom Line: John probably has to win the air war before he can really go to work on the ground. He'll want to bombard my troops and my ports but has to be carefull. I have alot of naval power here. The KB is, as usually, the wildcard. How frisky does John get? He keeps me honest. Does he go into the Bay of Bengal? I don't think so as things stand now. I don't think he'll want Colombo and Sabang to his rear when he can't be sure where the Death Star will be.

[Mike McCreery]

Glad to see you are back!!!

Started my days here on the forum first reading one of your AAR's! I remember the game that was in progress, the politics, the wildly disparate assessments of who was on top ;]

Going to be interesting to see this game continue.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents. It's good to be back.

I've sent the turn to John. More tomorrow.

[JocMeister]

Glad to see this game starting again! Had a hunch you would be back shortly but figured it would be a new game. Very good to have you back! [:)]

You´ve done amazingly well. Almost 20k Allied VPs on 1/1/43 is an incredible feat! No worry about AV for the rest of the game must feel really good. Johns ship losses will come back to haunt him. Not sure how much more RA adds but those DD losses have to hurt.

How many IDs do JIII have to throw at you in Sumatra? Can you hold?

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Glad to see you are back!!!

+1

Hartwig

[Canoerebel]

According to the Ships Lost screen, therefore subject to FOW, John has lost 58 DDs to date. Here's a screen shoing the "most valuable" eighteen:

[Canoerebel]

John has four divisions in the jungle west (true compass: south) of Medan facing one heavily reinforced US Army division. John's stack attacked on 1/3/43 and suffered a fairly lopsided loss (see details from combat report below). The Allies are aided by jungle/rough conditions.


Ground combat at 45,77 (near Medan)

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 40905 troops, 387 guns, 203 vehicles, Assault Value = 1676
Defending force 13394 troops, 314 guns, 295 vehicles, Assault Value = 412
Japanese adjusted assault: 477
Allied adjusted defense: 1090

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1634 casualties reported
Squads: 76 destroyed, 154 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 16 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 17 (6 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (6 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
440 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 15 (1 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Assaulting units:
5th Division
38th Division
10th Division
2nd Division
17th Army

Defending units:
182nd Infantry Regiment
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
37th Infantry Division
21st Marine Rgt /1

[Canoerebel]

John has aldditional IJA divisions south of Medan. I've lost rack of what and where. I"ll have to go back through old combat reports to find what info I can.

It should be difficult for Japan to dislodge the Allied stacks guarding the approaches to Medan.

There isn't a short term solution for John. He might send an army up the yellow road on the west side of Sumatra. That's jungle fighting and supply should be an issue, so I doubt he'd send much. He's got to win the air war or chance a major invasion at Langsa if he wants a crack at winning the ground war in the foreseeable future.

Conclusion. John will use his airforce and Navy to try to get control of the theater before he really has a chance of winning on the ground.

[Canoerebel]

The biggest question: how long and how well can the Allied fighters do at Sabang. John has overwhelming numbers. The Allies are fighting over a level eight airfield with a tremendous amount of air support and anti-aircraft. I would think he'd be able to break through eventually. If he does the base becomes untenable. So I'll have to work those fighters well, hard and long.

[KenchiSulla]

You are in good shape but aircraft will always be a problem for the allies. What might be a good first step is find out where you are losing the most aircraft and why. It might well be trying to defend Sumatra against bad odds. He'll have several airbases from where to operate and the only thing really hurting him would be pilot losses.. He'll never run out of aircraft.

If you don't have a chance to close down his staging areas in Sumatra and / or expand your position there.. well, are you happy with just drawing attention to the area?

Perhaps you need to change your strategy and take the hit while finding a weakness elsewhere...

PS o, and welcome back

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John has aldditional IJA divisions south of Medan. I've lost rack of what and where. I"ll have to go back through old combat reports to find what info I can.

It should be difficult for Japan to dislodge the Allied stacks guarding the approaches to Medan.

There isn't a short term solution for John. He might send an army up the yellow road on the west side of Sumatra. That's jungle fighting and supply should be an issue, so I doubt he'd send much. He's got to win the air war or chance a major invasion at Langsa if he wants a crack at winning the ground war in the foreseeable future.

Conclusion. John will use his airforce and Navy to try to get control of the theater before he really has a chance of winning on the ground.

He will probably toss everything he has at you. Unless he can kick you off Sumatra he will have a very unpleasant 43. [:)]

What kind of reinforcements do you have available? Considering your situation in the air bringing in some AA units should probably be priority. The Allies get 3 huge AA BDEs which are relatively cheap to buy out if you did it when they arrived. One or two of those and Japanese bombings will be very costly. One arrive at Colombo and two in NZ.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The biggest question: how long and how well can the Allied fighters do at Sabang. John has overwhelming numbers. The Allies are fighting over a level eight airfield with a tremendous amount of air support and anti-aircraft. I would think he'd be able to break through eventually. If he does the base becomes untenable. So I'll have to work those fighters well, hard and long.

If RA is anything like DBB (AA wise) you don´t really need CAP to defend. Massed AA can do wonders and after the Japanese lose 10-15 planes per turn for a couple of turn they usually give up. AA is very potent. [:)]

[KenchiSulla]

Indeed.. Japanese aircraft suffer from AA. The 3.7" does a fine job....