The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sustainable?: Next turn I'll look carefully at aircraft replacement rates, especially the F4F, P-40K, P-38G, and early Corsairs (just now coming online) to see if how long the Allies can hold out with judicious allocation. IE, if the Allies are losing 20 aircraft a day, can replace 15, and are performing well overall with the Japanese growing fatigued, we might hold out for months. I don't think the prospects are that rosy, but it bears looking in to.

I don´t know if anything is changed in RA but here are the DBB/Stock per day.

F4F: 1,5
P39D: 0,83
P40K: 2,2
P38G: 0,6
Corsair: 1,0
Hurricane IIc: 1,2
Spitfire Vc (Aus) 0,6
Kittyhawk III (Aus): 1,15
Kittyhawk III (NZ) 0,36
Hurricane XIIb (CAN) 0,8

Grand total of around 10 fighters per day. Not the full story though as you get some groups arriving on map with planes! Not many though in the near future. At least not in DBB there isn´t much incoming in spring 43.

The JFBs will have to give you an approximate number of Japanese fighter. But I don´t think 2-300 Tojos/month is unreasonable to expect. Add to that the Navy planes and you are outproduced by a huge margin.

I think you need to avoid direct confrontation and rely on "hit and run" tactics more then you had done so far. Not possible at the current circumstances with the need to protect shipping though. But I think you will have concede the air space eventually and it would be unnecessary to break your air force in the process. Better to pull back and remain a threat. This will force him to continue sweeping and escorting building up the OP losses.

Your AA at Sabang looks on the small side. You need more heavy AA guns and you have plenty of them. [:)] Don´t overlook the AA BDE on Ceylon I mentioned earlier. It has 72x3,7 inch AA guns. Those things pack a mean punch. More AA won´t prevent him from bombing completely but it will make it so costly he can´t sustain continued bombing.

If I were you I would make it my top priority to get as much AA to Sumatra as I possibly can.

[Canoerebel]

I'll be upgrading to the latest RA files before I play the next turn (which I think will be tomorrow). John says that will boost Allied fighter pools somewhat. Joc, I don't know if the figures you gave are for the upgraded RA or the old RA. I hope it's the latter, but I suspect it's the former.

Kinda odd to play a game where the Allies get 10 fighters per month and the Japanes 200+. [&:] It's so odd that I can't believe it's true. Of course, this is a Mod, and John created the Mod, but I can't imagine any Japanese player would enjoy a disparity like that in '42 or '43.

But it is what it is.

Joc, if you're right about Allied fighter pools and production, then I'll have to make a decision fast. I won't be able to keep my fighters at Sabang long enough to reinforce the base. I won't be able to keep my battle line there. So probably what I'll have to do is sortie the Death Star in hopes of inflicting massive damage on the KB. That won't save Sabang, but it offers a way to hit Japan hard. I don't think John would expect an aggressive move from me.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll be upgrading to the latest RA files before I play the next turn (which I think will be tomorrow). John says that will boost Allied fighter pools somewhat. Joc, I don't know if the figures you gave are for the upgraded RA or the old RA. I hope it's the latter, but I suspect it's the former.

Kinda odd to play a game where the Allies get 10 fighters per month and the Japanes 200+. [&:] It's so odd that I can't believe it's true. Of course, this is a Mod, and John created the Mod, but I can't imagine any Japanese player would enjoy a disparity like that in '42 or '43.

But it is what it is.

Joc, if you're right about Allied fighter pools and production, then I'll have to make a decision fast. I won't be able to keep my fighters at Sabang long enough to reinforce the base. I won't be able to keep my battle line there. So probably what I'll have to do is sortie the Death Star in hopes of inflicting massive damage on the KB. That won't save Sabang, but it offers a way to hit Japan hard. I don't think John would expect an aggressive move from me.

Its not just RA where the Japanese massively outproduce the allies in terms of air frames. Its pretty much the standard for any game including Stock scenario 1 and 2. [:)]

The allies do get quality instead though. When the Hellcat, P47 and second generation Corsair starts rolling in the allies can really start to put some hurt on the Japanese. But as the allies the biggest struggle in the air will always be their own pools. Careful balancing between losses and availability is a must throughout the game. Even in 45.

I´m pretty confident I got most of the allied production right but as I went by memory some things might be a little off. I also can´t really vouch for the Japanese numbers. But from what I have seen in AARs it seem pretty normal. John likes to play offensively though and doesn´t strike me as one to care much for the economy so he could have gone bananas! [:)]

Its not that bad if you consider you get around 300 fighters/month (the list I posted was per day, sorry if that was unclear [:)]) and he is producing somewhere around 400-600/month. A bigger problem is that with PDU ON you will be facing only the best Japanese fighters like the Tojo and George while you will be forced to use planes like the F4F, P39D and P40Es.

I would very strongly advice against seeking a carrier clash at this point. He will absolutely 100% surely have the A6M5 on his carriers by now. It will severely outclass your Wildkittens. I had one CV battle with F4Fs against M5s and it was not pretty at all. You are only 4 months away from the Hellcat which will give you the advantage in any CV battle. A big advantage too! You get 130 per month which means you can pretty quickly equip your CVs with the Hellcat.

I know also that RA gives the Japanese more CVs. I don´t know how many or when but you can bet on John having accelerated them all. I think at best even with LBA support your chances would be very slim even under the best circumstances.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Joc. Lots of good stuff to mull over there. Now I have to digest it and figure out where to go from here.

The key is Sabang. I can't imagine giving up without a fight. The only way to fight is to maintain those fighters and ships. If I don't, John sends in bombardment TFs and trashes the place.

I think I have a gordian knot to unravel here.

[zuluhour]

Not sure if you still have the Dutch CMs, they have a lot of mines. Long run in from Colombo if you got them out, but they can deter the BB TF s a little.

[Canoerebel]

One of the beauties of this invasion was that the Allies brought everything including the kitchen sink, including minelayers, AE, and ACM. So I currently have 488 mines at Sabang and that number is holding steady (plus mines at Medan). I can increase those numbers as needed and desired.

But once I lose control of the air, I have to get all my ships out of Sabang.

For now, my working hypothesis is that I pretty much have to give battle in the air, at least until I figure it's time to evacuate all the ships.

[Mike McCreery]

You sure did take this bull by the horns ;]

Watching and learing!!

[Canoerebel]

The air war over Sabang is the key to the game for the foreseeable future.

The Allies seemed to win every battle but could well be losing the war due to replacement pool disparities.

How does this look to you?

[KenchiSulla]

That ratio doesn't look good. Not sustainable for you. But 1435 Tojo's destroyed is a lot. What level do his pilots have right out of flight school? 50? And is he throwing these directly into battle?

He'll be able to go on forever then...

He knows your fighters are concentrated at Sabang and that it is eating up all your resources. He only has to rotate squadrons to keep up the pressure. Production, supply are not a problem.

The only thing that might stop him are his pilot losses....

[Mundy]

Good to see this up again, Dan. It was probably one of the only ones I was reading. I'll have to start from the beginning to catch up.

[Lecivius]

Please allow me to join in in welcoming you back. I have always enjoyed your thoughtful and intelligent presence, posts, and strategies.

Now go beat that Colorado muffin maker back into the stone age [:D]

[witpqs]

[:)]

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

That ratio doesn't look good. Not sustainable for you.

Naive question: the Allies have done pretty well in the air war, or so it seems, with losses about 8 to 5 in their favor. If that isn't good enough, then what is?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
...If that isn't good enough, then what is?

I think it's hard for the Allies to "win" the air war in '42 and '43 in any version of AE, but even more so in some of the Mods. This is the Reluctant Admiral Mod. My opponent is one of the creators of the Mod and is also a well-known JFB. So it's slanted towards Japan (I think that's fair to say, though JFB's may disagree.)

I didn't fully understand the disparity when I began the game, so I defended aggressively in the air. I've done well, I think, but it isn't sustainable. My figher pools are empty. I don't even have any Wildcats in the pools! I'm in a bit of a pickle even though the Sumatra invasion was a success and even though the Allies have done well in the air war.

[KenchiSulla]

Hi Jwolf,

What is winning the air war? Shooting down aircraft? Or being able to achieve and keep air supremacy wherever you want.... At the moment the air war, over Sumatra at least, is a stalemate, with heavy losses on both sides. The Japanese can adjust production of aircraft, the allies can not..

Victory point wise, Canoerebel is winning... What I think is happening here is that the allied position is so threatening the Japanese player will throw anything he has at Sabang to force the Allies out of the base...

Strategically, John doesn't have a choice.. If he doesn't attack he'll lose Palembang, the single most important oil source.. Balikpapan alone is not enough...

A solution might be shutting down the bases the Tojo's are operating from. To do this the allies will need to use a trump card... Heavy bombers.. In order to deploy heavy bombers the allies need secure bases within range of important targets..

The Allies need to expand... or retreat

EDIT: At least that is what I think... Ofcourse

[Canoerebel]

Here's the gordian knot I have to unravel.

1. I agree that the air war probably isn't sustainable at Sabang.
2. Without air cover, I'll have to withdraw the ships.
3. Currently many of my carrier F4F squadrons are at Sabang. I have to reunite them.
4. The F4Fs have limited range. To reunite carriers and fighters, I have two options:
(a) bring carriers close enough to Sabang to receive fighters (range is 23 hexes). This is the quickest method. I could do so as soon as January 6, 1943 (two turns). That would them allow me to vacate shipping from Sabang, giving carrier cover to my capital ships.
(b) safer option is two stage withdrawal - F4Fs from Sabang to Ramree Island (level 8 airfield) to carriers. Then carriers cover withdrawal of ships from Sabang.
5. 4(b) probably seems wiser, but that means Sabang is without USN fighters for at least two turns. The base could be easily overwhelmed and capital ships at much higher risk.
6. There is a third option - keep carriers back and send all ships from Sabang naked.
7. If John sends the KB forward into the Bay of Bengal (a very John-like thing to do) the damage inflicted to the Allied fleet and every other ship in area will be immense.
8. All of this is also an admission to John that Sabang is a lost cause. Losing Sabang means losing tons of troops and a certain amount of prestige. Fortunately, I am on the Allied side and therefore not subject to the Bushido Code. But as soon as he detects the withdrawal, he'll probably pounce with everything including KB.
9. My 4EB pools are in worse shape than fighter pools due to prolonged campaigning in Burma. Besides, John has umpteen airfields in range.
10. Taking additional airfields is problematic isn't a viable option. It would take too long too organize, the situation would by then be far worse, and I don't have the PP to devote in all likelihood.

A challenging situation!

[KenchiSulla]

Hi Dan,

Can you avoid detection with your carriers? If you can then you could bring the carriers in range, evacuate, and dash your surface assets at full speed out of Sabang towards your carriers...

John is limited to the same speed as your naval ships and if he sniffs your intentions he'll have to worry about an ambush...

[witpqs]

My gut sense strategic reaction is "Keep him tied to Sabang with your main assets now working the area. Use CVE and other forces to push in other places."

Everything is easier said than done, so I ain't sayin' it's gonna be easy!

[Canoerebel]

Very hard decision given the many variables. Truly a gordian knot. Eventually, decisions made as follows:

1. I think it more likely that John would employ the KB air against Sabang than to send the KB sprinting into the Bay of Bengal. If I guess wrong...well, it will be ugly.
2. Allied carriers to move to within 23 hexes of Sabang in preparation for retrieving F4Fs day next turn.
3. All fighters to remain in place at Sabang to provide another day's full protection. Will John come full bore again? Might he rest his fighters?
4. Some Allied shipping to flee Sabang, including two vulnerable CVEs, one fast BB, one slow BB, and a mismash of merchants. These ships are truly in harm's way, but they have to leave and the risk will only increase.

Ugh.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very hard decision given the many variables. Truly a gordian knot. Eventually, decisions made as follows:

1. I think it more likely that John would employ the KB air against Sabang than to send the KB sprinting into the Bay of Bengal. If I guess wrong...well, it will be ugly.
2. Allied carriers to move to within 23 hexes of Sabang in preparation for retrieving F4Fs day next turn.
3. All fighters to remain in place at Sabang to provide another day's full protection. Will John come full bore again? Might he rest his fighters?
4. Some Allied shipping to flee Sabang, including two vulnerable CVEs, one fast BB, one slow BB, and a mismash of merchants. These ships are truly in harm's way, but they have to leave and the risk will only increase.

Ugh.

I don't recall the map in detail, but there's always the maxim "Stop worrying about what he can do to you. What can you do to HIM?"

Given your supply states and what is being generated, if any, in your holdings on Sumatra, can you move forward on the ground? IO side maybe? Can you get to a position where you can support the northern offshore islands' build-up? It's a lot easier to dash in from the far west than come down the pipe from Colombo.

Once you get your ships out what air do you REALLY need to fight on the ground in the next 90 days? The terrain isn't good for ground bombing. Make him stop worrying about your navy.

Easier said than done, but don't get air-tunnel-vision.