The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

This is what happens when Gordian Knot meets KB.....

[Canoerebel]

I guess wrong on every count last turn ... and came out smelling like a rose. For this one turn, anyhow.

I predicted that John was less likely to send the KB into the Bay of Bengal than to employ it against Sabang in a combined land-air attack. As you can see, I was wrong. The map in the previous post shows the KB arriving right amidst the host of shipping fleeing Sabang. That shipping is beyond vulnerable without fighter cover. It includes one fast BB TF (Washington wtih two-DD escort), one slow BB TF (Mayland and West Virginia with four-DD escort), two CVE TFs (Long Island and another accompanied by riff-raff - nothing as much as a DD in either TF), a mish-mash of merchant TFs and some cripples. They are all sitting ducks!

And what does the KB do? It launches a single strike of Vals against BB Washington, scoring one hit. That's it.

A sub picks off a nice AK (not xAK) and that's the sum total of the loss by the fleeing chicks ... for this turn at least.

And as for predicting that John would continue attacking Sabang's air defenses en masse? He stood down his Tojos. A modest raid of Zeroes and Bettys came in and got chewn up by the CAP.

That's the main action this turn.

But the Gordian Knot is tighter than ever. Discussion to follow later about (1) what is John likely to do next, and (2) what in the heck am I going to do with my carriers and the fleeing chicks of Sabang?

[X(]

[Canoerebel]

What does John do with the KB next? I know John like the back of my hand (as proven last turn when he did something I didn't think he'd do - IE, John is predictable and unpredictable and I don't know what he's going to do). But here's the options:

1. Pull KB back - not because he's timid, but becuase he deduces that I will take the opportunity to send shipping due west (true: south) out of Sabang. This would be an astute move, but he's not likely to take it.
2. Push the KB forward into the center of the Bay of Bengal while chasing my carriers - he spotted them last turn. He probably knows my carrier F4Fs are at Sabang. He'll probably figure out the carriers are just within range to retrieve those fighters. Blood lust!
3. Most likely of all, he'll move those carriers towards Ceylon to continue ravaging the vulnerable chicks that fled Sabang. He'll have his blood lust up having seen Washington. He may have seen that there are CVEs present.

So (a) what indeed do I do with the fleeing chicks; (b) what do I do with my carriers, and (c) what do I do with the ships at Sabang?

Wtih regard to the latter, this probably creates a window to send fast combat ships due west (true: south) towards Diego. Yet I want them at Sabang as long as the air battle is tenable. It's tenable at the moment. Did John give his Tojos one day's rest to recover fatigue? Is he hurting for pilots? What do I do with my F4Fs?

[Canoerebel]

Sub and surface battle highlights, plus single air attack on Sabang, this turn:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 05, 43
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Sub attack near Tandjoengbalai at 47,77

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Namikaze

Allied Ships
SS Haddock

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Submarine attack near Truk at 110,107

Japanese Ships
TK Takane Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Gato

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Submarine attack near Trivandrum at 27,42

Japanese Ships
SS I-30

Allied Ships
TK British Trader, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Victoria Point at 51,66, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CM Kyosai, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
CM Ukishima, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Frobisher
CL Sumatra
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Balch

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Sub attack near Amami Oshima at 97,61

Japanese Ships
xAK Meigen Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PB Seki Maru #3
SC CHa-35
xAK Yoneyama Maru
xAKL Bunzan Maru
xAKL Shinrei Maru
xAKL Unyo Maru
PB Rokko Maru #2

Allied Ships
SS Pollack

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Sub attack near Great Nicobar at 40,67

Japanese Ships
SS I-174

Allied Ships
AK Procyon, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DMS Lamberton

SS I-174 launches 2 torpedoes at AK Procyon

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Submarine attack near Pescadores at 85,62

Japanese Ships
TK Ryuei Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
SS Halibut

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 42,59

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 15
D3A1 Val x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 6 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Washington, Bomb hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..


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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sabang at 44,70

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3b Zero x 24
G4M1 Betty x 8

Allied aircraft
P-38G Lightning x 13
P-39D Airacobra x 16
P-40E Warhawk x 23
P-40K Warhawk x 67
F4F-4 Wildcat x 89

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3b Zero: 8 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

[jwolf]

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..

This line was in the report on the air attack on BB Washington. What does it mean, and to which side did it apply?

BTW subs on both sides seemed pretty aggressive.

[ny59giants]

Since you were gone Dan, RA and the other mods now have JuanG's Allied aircraft puchase program. It can be costly, but you can use PPs to by airframes which might be helpful right now, I don't think this can be added to your current game vs John.

This mod and the others follow John's passion when it comes to the naval side of the game. While the IJN is stronger, I've had either John or me add some things for the Allies that do help (old CL to CLAA conversion, AKV and AOs to CVEs, 18 plane FP groups upgradeable to SBDs, etc.). So, IMO the mod gives Japan more to be competative longer, but the Allies are not without their toys increasing.

[Canoerebel]

There are two single-CVE TFs close to the BB Washington TF. Neither CVE is carrying fighters, hence neither could offer CAP to Washington. Both CVEs are "fleeing chicks" placed in riff-raff TFs (see screen shot for Copahee TF makeup). Long Island is just to the SW. Both TFs are six or seven hexes away from KB. Neither shows detection. Washington TF is just to their NE two hexes.

[Canoerebel]

I think it 70% likely John will move KB a bit to the NE to position it between Sabang and Colombo, thus interdicting "fleeing chicks." Exact position will be determined by his evaluation as to what I'm most likely to do with those vulnerable ships - especially Washington. He'll wonder if I'll send them NE towards Diamond Harbor, towards Colombo, or back towards Sabang. He won't be sure. And he isn't sure what I'll do with my carriers. There's a 20% likelihood he'll leap NE towards Diamond Harbor in pursuit of my carriers, which he just sighted this turn. There's a 10% chance he'll move closer to Sabang or retire towards the IO.

So how do I counter? Major options: (1) Move my carriers towards Diamond Harbor to keep them safe, dispersing the "fleeing chicks" in no-man's-land as best I can but really leaving them to the wolves; (2) Reuniting the F4Fs with the carriers and moving the carriers to a position between Sabang and Colombo, closer to the latter (to eliminate threat of any LBA); sending the "feeling chicks" towards them both for safety, such as it is, and to "confuse the radar screen" as far as the KB is concerned; seeking a full-fledged carrier battle on the supposition that KB is a long way from home and that damaged enemy carriers would have to negotiate sub-choked waters on the long, long way back to Singers, Batavia or Soerabaja; (3) Reunite F4Fs with carriers and send carries towards Sabang (at flank speed???), probably catching John off guard and possibly out of position; sending some fleeing chicks back towards Sabang and others towards Colombo.

Those are probably my three options. Thoughts?

[JocMeister]

Tough situation is probably an understatement! [X(]

I´m not sure what kind of ships you have besides those mentioned? But among those you mentioned only BB Washington and CA Frobisher is of true value (IMO and all that). You don´t have to worry about VPs as you already have so much VPs a Japanese AV will never happen. So VP wise (although this will be costly) its not a matter of life and death.

What I would probably do is try to save the most important stuff. Washington and any CAs should be able to sprint to safety using full speed? Same should be true for some of the faster AUX ships which should be able to do the same. Again I have to stress the dangers of seeking a CV battle at this point. If I were you I would probably retire my CVs with a full speed run with their air groups aboard.

For the rest...well. The two slow BBs could easily draw the majority of the KB strikes and are tough to sink which should give some of the shipping a means to escape. In the process they do pretty much the only thing they are good for (besides consuming vast quantities of fuel [:D]) which is to be a TT magnets.

Its a tough decision and no matter what you do you will lose ships. I think the most important thing is to avoid losing anything critical to the war effort. My reasoning for this is that I quite strongly believe that the KB is out of your reach at this point in the war. Obviously anything is possible with the right amount of luck but losing your CVs at this point would surely doom your forces on Sumatra. Not a gamble I would take!

PS. Writing on the phone so not the most eloquent text!

[witpqs]

Where is safety? Do you have CAP & AA at Colombo that can stop a KB strike?

[Canoerebel]

John won't want to tackle Colombo. He's got to fear breaking the back of his naval air power against a hardened target. Colombo is level 9 airfield, level 9 port. It has 253 fighters (about equal parts Hurricanes, Marlets, and P-39s, which is not optimal but John doesn't know what's there - besides, those fighters are manned by high-experience pilots). Plus I can transfer some land fighters in from Calcutta vicinity. So I don't think John will tackle Colombo.

My inclination is to send my carriers to a point close to Trincomalee (but closer to the Indian coast). John can succeed in getting battle if he comes that far, but if he does he's so far into Indian country that things become disastrous for him if he loses or breaks even in a carrier fight.

Also figuring into this, I have lots of extra F4F squadrons involved, including one unit (not one of the main carrier fighter squadrons) with 47 aircraft. I can also put smaller squadrons on the CVEs, which would further confuse the radar screen for John.

The bottom line here is that I don't want to get hemmed into the Bay of Bengal. For one thing, an RN CV is due for withdrawal (two days back). But I need sea room to pose threats to John from multiple vectors.

Decisions, decisions.

[Insano]

Speaking as JFB: in this situation I fear surface action. Just saying. Yes the attacking surface units are doomed when the sun comes up but the chance to take carriers under naval gunfire is juicy. Even if Japan wins any surface engagement decisively, you're likely to cause some damage to the precious KB. Is that the slow BB TF just 2 hexes NW of KB? Typing on phone so won't elaborate.

[Canoerebel]

No, that's USN DD Dent two hexes NW of KB. I'll vector some of my combat vessels towards KB.

I also just discovered that Copahee is carrying 17 F4Fs. I don't think they flew due to the type of TF. I'll have to reconfigure the TF so that CAP will fly (or send the F4Fs elsewhere if I can).

I'm currently leaning towards sending the Allied carriers to a point near Trincomalee, but won't make the final decision for several more hours.

[KenchiSulla]

Using some surface assets against KB (react 6 is best) might also disrupt any intercept plan he sets up....

[Canoerebel]

I'm vectoring in DD Dent, CL Helena, and a combat TF with CL/DD on patrol/react 6. BB Washington TF and the two slow BB TFs will head due north (towards Madras) at flank speed. If John moves KB that way, which I think he will, there's a chance the courses will collide or that the BBs will draw lots of attention. If KB doesn't go that way, the BBs will be in the clear.

[Andav]

I will also add how glad I am to have you back and playing and writing again. I typically do not read Allied AARs but yours is a must read.

My guess is John will not venture too far into the Bay of Bengal unless he can stay within a day of LBA cover.

I think the surface TFs are a great plan. You will have plenty to replace any losses (eventually) and it will definitely be something he needs to respect. witpqs did this type of thing to me often. Most annoying.

Wa

[Canoerebel]

The KB replenishment TF is due west of Sabang about 15 hexes or so. Two Allied TFs are heading that way also.

[Canoerebel]

Wilcats have returned to the roost. Death Star to move WNW towards Trincomalee. They are within range of the KB if John guesses right and penetrates deep enough (might have to use flank speed to do that, not quite sure). I don't think he will. I hope he won't. But the Allied carriers are in pretty good shape. Lots of fighters.

[zuluhour]

I can't picture jumping right back in this one Dan, It's not like you can plan very far ahead yet. Kudos. I agree with Herr C.Fodder as well.

[Canoerebel]

This is what happens with the KB meets with the Gordian Knot.