The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

John's carriers also took an unknown amount of system and other damage in the recent fracas. That's a factor of unknown magnitude.

[witpqs]

How about British and Dutch subs available to hunt carriers in that area?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's something to be gained. Sumatra is currently toast - its doomed as things stand. But a victory at sea would give the Allies some ability to defend.

Fortunately, all of the important ground troops committed to Sabang are American. I believe there's three divisions (1st Marine, 27th and 32nd USA). There's also several regiments. The loss of these will be a blow, but probably not critical.

I agree that as things now stand the Allies are probably able to extricate all shipping of real value (meaning the fast BBs, the slow BBs, and even - against all odds - those CVEs).

But dang - an opportunity to give battle so close to home and so remote for John. Very tempting.

How does your USMC and USA squad pools look? Well stocked? Then you can probably recover the troops in 3 months. [:)] Do you really think Sumatra is doomed without a decisive Allied naval victory? That is a scary thought. I got the impression you were doing quite well on the ground?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for posting this, Joc. Reading this kind of thing can often be the wake up call to reality that a player needs.....

....but....

Was your combat really that lopsided? Note that your strike forces targeted battleships. Bear in mind that John apparently doesn't have BBs. And almost any hit will leave John's carriers hung out in bad Indian territory.

I haven't made up my mind yet. Have I overlooked anything else? Am I badly misreading things? Have I been gone so long that I don't know what I'm doing?

(P.S. I've long been hyper protective of my carriers, so I'm not typically rash. It's been three games or so since I last lost an American fleet carriers. Seiously.)

It really was that lopsided. I was absolutely crushed. [:)] Granted this was against Mr.Kane (Tom) who is probable on of the best AE players out there so his setting was probably 100% while mine...probably wasn´t! [:D]

Weather also played a big part in the battle as his CVs where shrouded by heavy clouds. Bad weather, a couple of bad rolls of the dice and the entire USN + all the Amphibs go down together with around 5-6000 VPs. Just like that. [:)] But look at the size of his Alpha strike...no weather in the world could have saved me. And that was without the MKB!

I know whatever you decide will be the best choice given your situation. Don´t want to sound like an alarmist but be very careful!

[KenchiSulla]

Hi Joc, you were a bit light on fighters, what happened there? USN carriers bring 36 at least... I'll admit there is a certain randomness involved. In my game vs Quixote (after I threw in the towel) we ran a simulation where we replayed a turn of June 1942.

In the game Quixote turned back with KB but this time we met in battle twice.. First run was a decisive Japanese victory, the second run it was allied...

[Canoerebel]

Information about carriers and strike aircraft:

A. Japan - three TFs showing a mouseover total of 317 fighters, 340 strike aircraft, and 15 auxilliary (two turns ago, John loss 20+ Jakes to CAP over Sabang, so he may be a bit short in that regard).

B. Allies - four carrier TFs totalling 237 F4Fs, 9 Martlets, 211 SBDs, and 60 Avengers. I'll probably reconfigure this a bit to nudge SBDs up and Avengers down. Also, Copahee might join the fray with another 20 F4Fs.

The three USN carrier TFs are comprised of support: CA, CL, CLAA and five DD each. In addition, BB Washington and two DDs have rendezvoued, so one CV TF will get Washington and I'll dole out the destroyers.

Allied subs aren't out there - they're all in the straits leading to Singers or guarding the Sunda Straits. So damaged enemy ships will have to run the gauntlet (or seek refuge at Rangoon, Port Blair or Victoria Point, which would be crazy).

The Allies are winning the ground war on Sumatra, Joc, but that won't last once I can't protect Sabang from attacks by air and sea.

[witpqs]

How much supply have you got on Sumatra?

[Canoerebel]

Tons of supply - nearly 300k.

[KenchiSulla]

You'll be a bit outnumbered, probably even number fighters. If you set heavy CAP (at least 60%) you should be able to punch through the escort...

About 100 of your fighters will escort, if your strike is coordinated. F4Fs take a punch so the zeroes will be fairly distracted...

If you do battle, it will be up to the dice gods... If you don't now he'll either chase even further into your territory and you might be able to battle covered by LBA... or retreat...

[Canoerebel]

If I do this, should I err on the side of offense? IE, setting a lower than normal CAP? The goal is to damage enemy carriers more than to protect friendly ones. Is that the right objective? If so, what would you set CAP at?

[KenchiSulla]

My reasoning is that you should launch sufficient fighters as escort to ensure you penetrate the CAP. As a rule of thumb it should be close to the number of CAP the enemy has up.. I don't know John that well.. Does he usually put up a lot of CAP or does he commit more to the escort?

If you have a lot of fighters on escort, some of those fighters will not contribute in the 15 minute running fight (assuming no radar on the IJN side) towards the carriers before the bombers start to dive down....

On the other hand, you have radar assisted interception and a lot of fighters on CAP will contribute towards shooting down or disrupting the strike force...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If I do this, should I err on the side of offense? IE, setting a lower than normal CAP? The goal is to damage enemy carriers more than to protect friendly ones. Is that the right objective? If so, what would you set CAP at?

I usually turn off the game and close my eyes to imagine how I would feel if the attack went completely t**s up. How I would feel if I lost all the carriers.

This movie will vary depending on era.

I think a goal of inflicting 4-6 months of damage on 2-3 of his is a good one for the time you are in, what is coming for you, and what you need to continue to prosecute Sumatra. Is that goal worth your strike force? Up to you, Rocky.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Tons of supply - nearly 300k.

Fantastic!

That affords you much more flexibility, but even that would not last forever under unfettered air assault.

What squads do your USA and USMC squads have, meaning '41 (or original if the first is not numbered), '42, '43 (and of course not '44)? You can count on John bringing in whatever LCU power he feels is needed to defeat them. And as good as they are, they certainly can be defeated.

Your fleet in being is important. What you really do not want is to allow John to move significant carrier strength elsewhere, thereby stymieing your advance elsewhere while containing his crisis at Sabang. 4 hexes from Ceylon does not sound close enough to get any support from LBA.

My advice is offer battle only where you have better odds than what you described. More LBA support.

[Canoerebel]

John has seven divisions tied up in Sumatra at present between the two hexes defended by two heavily reinforced USA divisions. It's good terrain and John has tried various shock attacks without success. He's not going to win this battle on the ground anytime soon.

It's the air and the sea that control the battle though. If I can't work those two angles, the jig is up.

Gonna think about this some more before issuing final orders.

[Canoerebel]

Here I sit....time to go home....and if I click the red "advance turn" button, I offer battle. The Allied carriers move close to Ceylon, SE of Trincomalee.

Of course it's not a given that battle occurs. John may not offer. He may withdraw.

Can I do it? Dare I do it? Will I do it?

[paullus99]

What's the worst that can happen?

It's just electrons......

[Canoerebel]

Orders given. Battle offered.

The minute I clicked the button, I knew it was the right thing to do. Win or lose.

If this isn't the time, when is? A great campaign hangs in the balance. The Allies are near home. Japan is far from home. The Allies should have great naval search (though I don't expect any LRCAP). I have surface assets that have been given orders to continue monkeying with the KB. If I'm hit, a level nine port is very close. If John's hit, he faces a long periolous journey home.

If not now, when?

[Canoerebel]

One other thing.

I rememember a battle in which Japan badly outnumbered the Allies. But the Allies had good intel and aggressively sought and gave battle. It wasn't preordained that they would win, but they did.

I'd like to think this is a similar sitaution. It may be preordained the other way this time.

But if not now when so many intangibles favor the Allies, when?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


If not now, when?

Ummmm . . . later? [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Orders given. Battle offered.

The minute I clicked the button, I knew it was the right thing to do. Win or lose.

If this isn't the time, when is? A great campaign hangs in the balance. The Allies are near home. Japan is far from home. The Allies should have great naval search (though I don't expect any LRCAP). I have surface assets that have been given orders to continue monkeying with the KB. If I'm hit, a level nine port is very close. If John's hit, he faces a long periolous journey home.

If not now, when?

Your gut has proven to be astoundingly accurate in your decision-making in the three or four previous AARs I have read. Let's hope it didn't get out of practice during your hiatus! Give 'em he**, boys!

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Orders given. Battle offered.

The minute I clicked the button, I knew it was the right thing to do. Win or lose.

If this isn't the time, when is? A great campaign hangs in the balance. The Allies are near home. Japan is far from home. The Allies should have great naval search (though I don't expect any LRCAP). I have surface assets that have been given orders to continue monkeying with the KB. If I'm hit, a level nine port is very close. If John's hit, he faces a long periolous journey home.

If not now, when?

Your gut has proven to be astoundingly accurate in your decision-making in the three or four previous AARs I have read. Let's hope it didn't get out of practice during your hiatus! Give 'em he**, boys!

he** might bounce off, give em AP too!! ;]